CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceBender Arena, Washington, DCCapital Thanksgiving Classic
Hampton
Efficiency #268
2025-26: 13-19 · 7-12 conf
@
American
Efficiency #234
2025-26: 16-16 · 9-10 conf
Sun, Nov 29 · 4:00 PM ET
68.6
win 32%
Projected
73.9
win 68%
No line posted yet.
Model: AMER −5.3 · total 142.5 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: American 67.9, Hampton 67.0 → 66.6 possessions
−3.7
American offense vs Hampton defense
−0.3
Hampton offense vs American defense
−1.8
Projected total
142.5
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
American offense vs Hampton defense
−0.3
Hampton offense vs American defense
+1.8
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.8
American by 5.3
5.3
Hampton side ◂▸ American side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 142.4 against a projected 142.5. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help American.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 66.6, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, American is the faster team (66.7, #258 of 365) and Hampton the slower (66.0, #297). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
66.6
per team, 40 min
Projected total
142.5
model
Projected team totals
68.6 / 73.9
Hampton / American
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
67.0#286
Hampton
67.9#217
American

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
Pace
Half-court grind
American averages 66.7 possessions per 40, Hampton 66.0. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 65 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
AdvantageHampton
Where Hampton struggles: shooting
Hampton shoots an effective 45.7% (#356); American allows 54.4% (#313). Expect about 49.6%, 1.6 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.3 points per 100 possessions.
TurnoversHampton
Hampton turns it over
Projected turnover rate of 18.5% is worth roughly -2.1 points per 100 possessions against Hampton's offense.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Hampton) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Hampton at about 36.0% of its shots from three, American about 41.3%.
AdvantageAmerican
Where American struggles: the offensive glass
American rebounds 26.9% of its own misses (#299); Hampton lets opponents grab 30.0% of their own misses (#165). Expect about 27.8%, 2.6 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -1.6 points per 100 possessions.
ClashAmerican
Style clash: 3-point volume
American takes 46.5% of its shots from three; Hampton runs teams off the line (33.6% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 41.3% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).
Hampton has the ball
OffenseAmerican allowsvs D1 avg
45.7% #356
54.4% #313
-2.3 pt/100
17.0% #206
19.2% #40
-2.1 pt/100
32.9% #90
29.4% #127
+0.8 pt/100
39.2% #73
42.1% #324
+0.8 pt/100
72.5% #191
—
+0.0 pt/100
Hampton net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -2.9 pts/100
American has the ball
OffenseHampton allowsvs D1 avg
51.5% #169
52.0% #212
+0.7 pt/100
15.6% #114
17.2% #135
+0.5 pt/100
26.9% #299
30.0% #165
-1.6 pt/100
28.7% #335
46.5% #355
+0.5 pt/100
75.8% #57
—
+0.3 pt/100
American net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +0.4 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Hamptonoffense vsAmericandefense
Share of shots by zone
Hampton shoots
American allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim55.5%#28662.5%#31158.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)27.7%#35848.0%#33939.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)38.6%#16737.6%#14538.0%
Three28.8%#35735.5%#28333.7%
Americanoffense vsHamptondefense
Share of shots by zone
American shoots
Hampton allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim59.0%#16164.3%#34458.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)43.5%#9241.4%#22339.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)39.6%#12735.4%#8538.0%
Three33.0%#23532.1%#6533.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Hampton
−0.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#210 of 365
Off reb %
32.9%
#90
Def reb %
70.0%
#165
Turnover %
17.0%
#206
Forced TO %
17.2%
#135
FT rate
39.2%
#73
FT allowed
46.5%
#355
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.8
Defensive rebounding+0.2
Ball security−0.2
Forcing turnovers+0.3
Foul shots drawn+1.1
Foul shots allowed−2.9
American
−1.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#259 of 365
Off reb %
26.9%
#299
Def reb %
70.6%
#127
Turnover %
15.6%
#114
Forced TO %
19.2%
#40
FT rate
28.7%
#335
FT allowed
42.1%
#324
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.1
Defensive rebounding+0.4
Ball security+0.8
Forcing turnovers+1.7
Foul shots drawn−1.6
Foul shots allowed−1.8

Hampton has more extra scoring chances per game: −0.7 (#210 of 365) to American’s −1.6 (#259).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Hampton2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Hampton's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
25Xzavier LongFSr6'7"30-2734.69.89.61.92.046.4%25.0%2.867.7%20.0%
11Daniel JohnsonGSo6'7"32-2925.110.05.00.70.945.7%31.9%3.673.0%27.2%
2Jalyke Gaines-WyattGJr6'0"29-2326.211.21.43.02.343.9%26.4%2.576.8%29.9%
5Etienne StrothersGSo6'2"32-1518.86.21.71.71.244.4%31.7%2.676.2%23.6%
23Josh OgundeleFSr7'0"27-2217.66.73.50.61.156.8%40.0%0.460.8%23.8%
0Kody WilliamsGSr6'0"29-816.02.71.01.60.635.8%22.9%1.772.7%15.0%
3Michael EleyGSr6'4"23-1019.213.03.40.70.754.3%30.9%4.188.2%36.2%
1Christian WatsonGSr6'6"25-617.66.02.01.00.944.1%27.1%1.979.2%23.8%
15Eunique RinkFSo6'10"30-711.71.91.90.20.463.4%—0.042.9%10.1%
13Aidan HaskinsFFr6'8"29-311.23.11.40.60.251.7%39.7%2.250.0%17.1%
8Elijah KennedyGSr6'4"22-513.04.91.90.90.450.0%29.4%1.557.1%24.3%
24Quintin CooperGFr6'2"27-38.63.61.10.60.539.7%16.1%1.156.3%34.1%
12Peter OduroFSr6'8"24-26.40.61.00.10.128.6%0.0%0.150.0%10.3%
22Kellan LewisGFr6'0"9-05.41.60.80.20.350.0%42.9%0.842.9%20.6%
30Hamza AsadallahGFr6'1"8-03.40.80.90.30.050.0%40.0%0.6—12.8%
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
HamptonAmerican
Efficiency
104.2
106.9
109.5
110.1
67.0
67.9
—
—
Shooting
45.7%
51.5%
47.1%
53.3%
28.8%
33.0%
72.5%
75.8%
39.2%
28.7%
Ball control & glass
17.0%
15.6%
17.2%
19.2%
32.9%
26.9%
30.0%
29.4%
9.3%
8.9%
11.8%
10.0%
Style
37.1%
46.5%
39.9%
42.6%
15.5%
13.8%
48.9%
49.5%
39.9%
33.2%
Roster
3.04
2.23
6'5.1"
6'5.2"
—
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Hampton
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Hampton's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

American
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted American's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.