CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceJohn J. Lee Amphitheater, New Haven, CT
Quinnipiac
Efficiency #190
2025-26: 19-13 · 12-9 conf
@
Yale
Efficiency #57
2025-26: 24-7 · 12-4 conf
Sun, Nov 29 · 2:00 PM ET
70.2
win 19%
Projected
80.5
win 81%
No line posted yet.
Model: YALE −10.3 · total 150.6 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Yale 66.6, Quinnipiac 70.1 → 68.3 possessions
0.0
Yale offense vs Quinnipiac defense
+4.4
Quinnipiac offense vs Yale defense
−2.0
Projected total
150.6
Axis starts at 146 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Yale offense vs Quinnipiac defense
+4.4
Quinnipiac offense vs Yale defense
+2.0
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.9
Yale by 10.3
10.3
Quinnipiac side ◂▸ Yale side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Yale.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 68.3, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Quinnipiac is the faster team (69.7, #101 of 365) and Yale the slower (65.6, #315). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
68.3
per team, 40 min
Projected total
150.6
model
Projected team totals
70.2 / 80.5
Quinnipiac / Yale
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
70.1#45
Quinnipiac
66.6#316
Yale

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageQuinnipiac
Where Quinnipiac struggles: shooting
Quinnipiac shoots an effective 48.2% (#310); Yale allows 51.7% (#192). Expect about 49.7%, 1.6 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.3 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageYale
Where Yale scores: the offensive glass
Yale rebounds 34.2% of its own misses (#62); Quinnipiac lets opponents grab 32.0% of their own misses (#253). Expect about 33.8%, 3.4 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.1 points per 100 possessions.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Yale) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Quinnipiac at about 38.4% of its shots from three, Yale about 34.2%.
ClashYale
Style match: 3-point volume
Yale rarely shoots threes (36.1% of its shots); Quinnipiac runs teams off the line (35.4% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 34.2% — both habits push the same way.
ClashQuinnipiac
Style clash: 3-point volume
Quinnipiac rarely shoots threes (33.7% of its shots); Yale lets opponents take 45.0% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 38.4% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).
Quinnipiac has the ball
OffenseYale allowsvs D1 avg
48.2% #310
51.7% #192
-2.3 pt/100
15.9% #130
16.3% #204
+1.0 pt/100
34.1% #65
29.7% #147
+1.4 pt/100
33.8% #217
26.8% #19
-0.7 pt/100
69.1% #297
—
-0.3 pt/100
Quinnipiac net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -0.9 pts/100
Yale has the ball
OffenseQuinnipiac allowsvs D1 avg
55.6% #26
48.9% #65
+1.9 pt/100
14.0% #22
17.4% #127
+1.5 pt/100
34.2% #62
32.0% #253
+2.1 pt/100
35.1% #172
30.6% #75
-0.3 pt/100
74.6% #100
—
+0.2 pt/100
Yale net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +5.3 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Quinnipiacoffense vsYaledefense
Share of shots by zone
Quinnipiac shoots
Yale allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim54.9%#30157.9%#14758.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)30.0%#34935.3%#6539.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)31.1%#34641.0%#27738.0%
Three34.0%#17135.0%#25033.7%
Yaleoffense vsQuinnipiacdefense
Share of shots by zone
Yale shoots
Quinnipiac allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim60.6%#10752.6%#2058.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)47.7%#2835.1%#6039.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)39.5%#13335.1%#8138.0%
Three39.4%#334.9%#24233.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Quinnipiac
+2.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#66 of 365
Off reb %
34.1%
#65
Def reb %
68.0%
#253
Turnover %
15.9%
#130
Forced TO %
17.4%
#127
FT rate
33.8%
#217
FT allowed
30.6%
#75
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.2
Defensive rebounding−0.4
Ball security+0.6
Forcing turnovers+0.5
Foul shots drawn−0.3
Foul shots allowed+1.2
Yale
+5.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#17 of 365
Off reb %
34.2%
#62
Def reb %
70.3%
#147
Turnover %
14.0%
#22
Forced TO %
16.3%
#204
FT rate
35.1%
#172
FT allowed
26.8%
#19
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.2
Defensive rebounding+0.3
Ball security+1.9
Forcing turnovers−0.3
Foul shots drawn0.0
Foul shots allowed+2.2

Yale has more extra scoring chances per game: +5.3 (#17 of 365) to Quinnipiac’s +2.7 (#66).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Quinnipiac2025-26 numbers
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
21Keith McKnightFSo6'7"32-424.811.05.91.11.355.4%26.7%0.562.5%24.9%
12Holden Pierre-Louisat Cleveland StFFr6'8"30-2115.63.32.71.01.356.4%0.0%0.138.7%16.0%
9Nate GuerengombaGJr6'4"29-414.12.51.70.70.637.2%17.6%0.660.0%14.3%
4Tai TurnageGSo6'0"30-012.63.61.32.10.438.2%33.3%1.881.1%20.1%
3Nas Hartat La SalleFSo6'10"20-310.62.33.00.00.337.2%—0.061.9%16.1%
13Braylan RitvoFSo6'8"8-06.51.50.60.10.040.0%33.3%0.80.0%16.9%
34Akintola AkinniyiFSr6'7"5-03.80.40.20.00.025.0%—0.00.0%13.9%
10Christopher SkenderiFSo6'7"4-03.33.31.50.30.592.9%75.0%1.0—36.8%
1Jayden ReidFSo6'10"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
11Ali DioufFFr6'9"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
0Lucas SekasiGJr6'6"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
2Malik FieldsGFr6'4"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
24Mike ParrottaGSr6'5"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
17Nedas CholevinskasFFr6'5"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
5Tayeshawn Cunningham-PembertonGSr6'3"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Transfers in: Nas Hart (from La Salle), Holden Pierre-Louis (from Cleveland St)

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
QuinnipiacYale
Efficiency
106.0
116.5
106.8
108.1
70.1
66.6
—
—
Shooting
48.2%
55.6%
46.7%
53.6%
34.0%
39.4%
69.1%
74.6%
33.8%
35.1%
Ball control & glass
15.9%
14.0%
17.4%
16.3%
34.1%
34.2%
32.0%
29.7%
9.4%
7.7%
11.2%
9.1%
Style
33.7%
36.1%
43.5%
44.4%
15.7%
9.8%
49.4%
56.0%
29.9%
29.0%
Roster
1.99
2.73
6'5.8"
6'5.5"
25.8%
84.0%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Quinnipiac
Returning minutes: 25.8%Returning production: 25.9%
Lost
  • Grant Randall 31.7 mpg, 11.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Amarri Monroe 31.3 mpg, 14.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Asim Jones 28.8 mpg, 12.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Jaden Zimmerman 26.3 mpg, 12.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Spence Wewe 16.5 mpg, 2.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Samson Reilly 7.8 mpg, 3.8 ppg · transferred to Sacred Heart
Added
  • Holden Pierre-Louis from Cleveland St · 14.2 mpg, 3.0 ppg last season
  • Nas Hart from La Salle · 6.6 mpg, 1.4 ppg last season
  • Ali Diouf no D1 minutes last season
  • Jayden Reid no D1 minutes last season
  • Nedas Cholevinskas no D1 minutes last season
  • Mike Parrotta no D1 minutes last season

Returns 26% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Yale
Returning minutes: 84.0%Returning production: 79.7%
Lost
  • Nick Townsend 32.4 mpg, 15.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
Nobody of note.

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 84% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last
DateSeasonResult
Tue, Nov 112025-26Yale 97 – 60 Quinnipiac

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.