CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceAbessinio Court at Eleanor R. Baldwin Arena, Boca Raton, FL

Davidson

Efficiency #112

2025-26: 20-14 · 11-9 conf

FAU

Efficiency #122

2025-26: 18-15 · 10-10 conf

Sun, Nov 29 · 2:00 PM ET

70.2

win 38%

Projected

73.9

win 62%

No line posted yet.

Model: FAU −3.7 · total 144.0 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: FAU 69.9, Davidson 65.9 → 67.5 possessions

−1.8

FAU offense vs Davidson defense

−1.3

Davidson offense vs FAU defense

−1.1

Projected total

144.0

Axis starts at 142 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

FAU offense vs Davidson defense

−1.3

Davidson offense vs FAU defense

+1.1

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.9

FAU by 3.7

3.7

Davidson side ◂▸ FAU side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help FAU.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 67.5, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, FAU is the faster team (70.2, #85 of 365) and Davidson the slower (64.2, #351). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

67.5

per team, 40 min

Projected total

144.0

model

Projected team totals

70.2 / 73.9

Davidson / FAU

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

65.9#343

Davidson

69.9#58

FAU

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

Pace

Tempo tug-of-war

FAU averages 70.2 possessions per 40, Davidson 64.2. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 66 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

DefenseFAU

FAU's shot-blocking

FAU ranks #20 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 12.3% of Davidson's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.

AdvantageDavidson

Where Davidson scores: ball control

Davidson turns it over on 15.8% of possessions (#121); FAU forces turnovers on 15.5% of opponent possessions (#251). Expect about 15.4%, 1.4 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +1.7 points per 100 possessions.

GlassDavidson

Davidson gets out-rebounded

Projected offensive rebound rate of 27.8% is worth roughly -1.6 points per 100 possessions against Davidson's offense.

ClashFAU

Strength vs strength: shot-blocking exposure

FAU (#32 in shot-blocking exposure) against Davidson (#50 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 10.4%. Historically Davidson's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.41 vs 0.68).

ClashDavidson

Style clash: 3-point volume

Davidson takes 44.5% of its shots from three; FAU runs teams off the line (35.2% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 40.8% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).

Davidson has the ball

OffenseFAU allowsvs D1 avg

52.6% #121

49.5% #81

-0.2 pt/100

15.8% #121

15.5% #251

+1.7 pt/100

28.1% #265

28.3% #78

-1.6 pt/100

31.0% #283

36.2% #215

-0.2 pt/100

63.9% #365

—

-0.7 pt/100

Davidson net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -1.0 pts/100

FAU has the ball

OffenseDavidson allowsvs D1 avg

52.2% #135

50.6% #132

+0.3 pt/100

17.6% #242

17.5% #121

-1.2 pt/100

31.6% #140

30.0% #157

+0.4 pt/100

33.3% #231

37.1% #240

+0.1 pt/100

70.3% #262

—

-0.2 pt/100

FAU net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -0.7 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Davidsonoffense vsFAUdefense

Share of shots by zone

Davidson shoots

30.3

9.6

15.3

44.8

FAU allows

45.4

6.8

12.9

34.9

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	59.4%#146	53.7%#37	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	43.9%#80	40.9%#207	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	42.2%#50	34.5%#62	38.0%
Three	35.4%#92	33.8%#169	33.7%

FAUoffense vsDavidsondefense

Share of shots by zone

FAU shoots

39.6

6.3

16.2

38.0

Davidson allows

39.3

8.9

16.2

35.7

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	60.5%#110	57.2%#119	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	39.8%#179	36.5%#101	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	39.7%#121	39.2%#207	38.0%
Three	33.3%#208	32.6%#92	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Davidson

−0.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#216 of 365

Off reb %

28.1%

#265

Def reb %

70.0%

#157

Turnover %

15.8%

#121

Forced TO %

17.5%

#121

FT rate

31.0%

#283

FT allowed

37.1%

#240

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.7

Defensive rebounding+0.2

Ball security+0.7

Forcing turnovers+0.6

Foul shots drawn−1.0

Foul shots allowed−0.5

FAU

−1.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#229 of 365

Off reb %

31.6%

#140

Def reb %

71.7%

#78

Turnover %

17.6%

#242

Forced TO %

15.5%

#251

FT rate

33.3%

#231

FT allowed

36.2%

#215

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.4

Defensive rebounding+0.8

Ball security−0.6

Forcing turnovers−0.8

Foul shots drawn−0.4

Foul shots allowed−0.2

Davidson has more extra scoring chances per game: −0.8 (#216 of 365) to FAU’s −1.0 (#229).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Davidson2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
5	Parker Friedrichsen	G	Jr	6'4"	34-33	25.3	10.8	2.5	1.4	1.2	54.1%	40.5%	4.9	75.0%	26.1%
4	Josh Scovens	G	Jr	6'6"	33-33	24.8	11.1	4.3	1.9	1.2	57.4%	36.7%	0.9	63.9%	26.6%
11	Sam Brown	G	Jr	6'3"	32-32	23.7	8.0	1.9	2.2	1.2	43.2%	27.2%	3.9	69.6%	25.6%
45	Roberts Blums	G	So	6'4"	32-0	22.3	12.4	3.4	1.1	0.9	58.6%	40.7%	5.9	63.6%	31.7%
3	Nick Coval	G	Fr	6'2"	33-3	19.4	6.4	1.6	1.6	1.0	58.0%	36.5%	2.2	84.3%	19.6%
12	Hunter Adam	G	Jr	6'7"	33-1	15.6	5.7	2.4	0.8	0.5	63.1%	39.4%	2.8	76.0%	19.2%
16	Ian Platteeuw	G	Fr	7'0"	31-26	15.2	4.1	3.8	1.9	1.2	49.6%	27.3%	0.4	43.8%	21.8%
15	Sean Logan	F	Sr	6'10"	26-7	15.7	3.7	3.4	0.7	0.8	50.6%	28.6%	0.3	37.8%	18.6%
24	JaQualon Roberts	F	Jr	6'8"	32-0	11.8	2.7	2.4	0.4	0.6	46.2%	11.1%	0.3	61.5%	17.1%
0	Manie Joses	F	So	6'7"	31-6	9.5	1.8	2.2	0.5	0.2	59.3%	23.8%	0.7	75.0%	10.9%
7	RJ Greer	G	Fr	6'3"	17-0	6.7	3.4	0.5	0.3	0.4	56.4%	42.9%	1.6	93.3%	27.2%
8	Joe Hurlburt	G	Sr	6'11"	8-1	9.0	1.6	3.4	0.8	0.8	42.9%	33.3%	0.8	25.0%	18.4%
51	Brock Matheny	G	Sr	5'10"	5-1	2.8	1.2	0.0	0.0	0.2	60.0%	40.0%	1.0	—	23.7%
14	Phillip Kavu	G	Fr	6'2"	4-0	3.3	0.5	0.3	0.3	0.0	20.0%	0.0%	0.3	—	20.8%
50	John Nowland	F	Jr	6'8"	4-0	2.8	0.8	0.3	0.0	0.3	—	—	0.0	50.0%	19.1%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

FAU2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted FAU's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
2	Isaiah Elohim	G	So	6'5"	32-32	28.1	12.4	4.2	1.0	0.9	52.7%	36.8%	3.3	66.0%	24.4%
18	Kanaan Carlyle	G	Jr	6'3"	28-27	31.1	14.3	3.8	2.9	2.5	49.8%	32.4%	6.4	85.4%	28.8%
25	Niccolo Moretti	G	Jr	6'1"	33-14	26.2	5.6	2.0	3.3	1.9	50.7%	26.7%	1.4	67.2%	15.5%
1	Devin Williams	F	So	6'10"	33-33	23.8	7.5	5.2	1.3	1.3	54.8%	30.6%	1.5	67.4%	19.0%
22	Devin Vanterpool	G	So	6'4"	24-24	31.2	15.8	6.3	2.4	2.1	52.5%	35.1%	6.2	78.2%	29.4%
11	Josiah Parker	G	Fr	6'7"	32-8	21.8	9.6	6.0	1.2	1.3	51.7%	16.0%	0.8	61.6%	26.6%
17	Xander Pintelon	F	Jr	6'11"	33-25	18.2	6.2	3.7	0.7	0.8	51.5%	35.2%	3.2	85.4%	19.9%
3	Amar Amkou	G	Fr	6'7"	26-1	12.7	5.5	2.2	0.4	0.7	52.0%	36.4%	1.7	79.2%	24.7%
77	Maxim Logue	F	So	6'9"	28-0	11.2	4.8	3.1	0.0	0.6	67.4%	0.0%	0.1	42.9%	22.1%
5	Yohann Sissoko	G	Fr	6'5"	27-0	11.2	3.3	1.7	1.1	0.9	47.7%	42.9%	0.8	75.7%	19.9%
9	Max Langenfeld	G	Fr	6'6"	16-1	8.2	3.5	0.9	0.5	0.5	48.1%	27.3%	2.8	66.7%	26.9%
8	Vincent Neugebauer	C	Jr	7'1"	13-0	8.1	2.5	1.6	0.2	0.4	65.0%	—	0.0	53.8%	17.2%
4	Liam Dayco-Green	G	Fr	6'2"	8-0	3.1	2.0	0.4	0.0	0.3	57.7%	45.5%	1.4	50.0%	34.3%
30	Lachlan Smith	G	Fr	6'3"	2-0	1.5	1.0	0.5	0.0	0.5	0.0%	—	0.0	100.0%	52.1%
7	Zion Sampaio	G	Fr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Davidson2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
5	Parker Friedrichsen	G	Jr	6'4"	34-33	25.3	10.8	2.5	1.4	1.2	54.1%	40.5%	4.9	75.0%	26.1%
4	Josh Scovens	G	Jr	6'6"	33-33	24.8	11.1	4.3	1.9	1.2	57.4%	36.7%	0.9	63.9%	26.6%
11	Sam Brown	G	Jr	6'3"	32-32	23.7	8.0	1.9	2.2	1.2	43.2%	27.2%	3.9	69.6%	25.6%
45	Roberts Blums	G	So	6'4"	32-0	22.3	12.4	3.4	1.1	0.9	58.6%	40.7%	5.9	63.6%	31.7%
3	Nick Coval	G	Fr	6'2"	33-3	19.4	6.4	1.6	1.6	1.0	58.0%	36.5%	2.2	84.3%	19.6%
12	Hunter Adam	G	Jr	6'7"	33-1	15.6	5.7	2.4	0.8	0.5	63.1%	39.4%	2.8	76.0%	19.2%
16	Ian Platteeuw	G	Fr	7'0"	31-26	15.2	4.1	3.8	1.9	1.2	49.6%	27.3%	0.4	43.8%	21.8%
15	Sean Logan	F	Sr	6'10"	26-7	15.7	3.7	3.4	0.7	0.8	50.6%	28.6%	0.3	37.8%	18.6%
24	JaQualon Roberts	F	Jr	6'8"	32-0	11.8	2.7	2.4	0.4	0.6	46.2%	11.1%	0.3	61.5%	17.1%
0	Manie Joses	F	So	6'7"	31-6	9.5	1.8	2.2	0.5	0.2	59.3%	23.8%	0.7	75.0%	10.9%
7	RJ Greer	G	Fr	6'3"	17-0	6.7	3.4	0.5	0.3	0.4	56.4%	42.9%	1.6	93.3%	27.2%
8	Joe Hurlburt	G	Sr	6'11"	8-1	9.0	1.6	3.4	0.8	0.8	42.9%	33.3%	0.8	25.0%	18.4%
51	Brock Matheny	G	Sr	5'10"	5-1	2.8	1.2	0.0	0.0	0.2	60.0%	40.0%	1.0	—	23.7%
14	Phillip Kavu	G	Fr	6'2"	4-0	3.3	0.5	0.3	0.3	0.0	20.0%	0.0%	0.3	—	20.8%
50	John Nowland	F	Jr	6'8"	4-0	2.8	0.8	0.3	0.0	0.3	—	—	0.0	50.0%	19.1%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Davidson

Against the spread

Season

14-16-2

Home

5-9-2

Road

8-4

Last 10

3-7

avg cover −0.7

Covered the last gameCovered 0 of 5 as a favoriteCovered 3 of 5 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

13-18-1

Home

8-7-1

Road

4-8

Last 10

2-7-1

avg vs total −6.7

Over in the last gameOver in 1 of 5 as a favorite, 1 pushOver in 1 of 5 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 17	Oklahoma StAdjEM #89	A	L 80–84	+6.5	W+2.5	154.0	O164	109.2	114.6	73.3
Mar 13	Saint Joseph'sAdjEM #118	N	L 58–70	+2.0	L−10.0	132.5	U128	95.0	114.6	61.1
Mar 12	Loyola ChicagoAdjEM #309	N	W 64–59 OT	−5.5	L−0.5	132.5	U123	96.6	89.0	66.3
Mar 7	St BonaventureAdjEM #138	A	W 68–63	+5.0	W+10.0	142.0	U131	106.0	98.2	64.2
Mar 4	Saint Joseph'sAdjEM #118	H	L 67–70	−2.5	L−5.5	137.0	P137	102.1	106.7	65.6
Mar 1	La SalleAdjEM #256	H	W 71–64	−11.0	L−4.0	133.5	O135	105.3	95.0	67.4
Feb 25	DuquesneAdjEM #131	A	W 67–56	+3.5	W+14.5	143.0	U123	102.2	85.4	65.6
Feb 21	FordhamAdjEM #170	A	L 59–63	−1.0	L−5.0	132.0	U122	98.4	105.1	60.0
Feb 18	RichmondAdjEM #150	H	W 65–63	−5.0	L−3.0	140.5	U128	101.9	98.8	63.8
Feb 15	DaytonAdjEM #62	A	L 59–70	+5.0	L−6.0	140.0	U129	97.0	115.1	60.8

FAU

Against the spread

Season

17-14

Home

8-5

Road

6-7

Last 10

4-6

avg cover −2.4

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 0 of 4 as a favoriteCovered 4 of 6 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

17-14

Home

6-7

Road

9-4

Last 10

6-4

avg vs total −4.8

Over in the last gameOver in 3 of 4 as a favoriteOver in 3 of 6 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 12	North TexasAdjEM #151	N	L 70–74	+1.5	L−2.5	137.0	O144	97.8	103.4	71.5
Mar 11	TempleAdjEM #168	N	W 63–59	+1.0	W+5.0	144.5	U122	97.4	91.3	64.7
Mar 7	Wichita StAdjEM #60	A	L 70–88	+8.0	L−10.0	149.0	O158	99.9	125.5	70.1
Mar 1	CharlotteAdjEM #193	H	W 77–76 OT	−7.0	L−6.0	148.0	O153	106.2	104.9	72.5
Feb 26	TempleAdjEM #168	H	W 77–73	−4.5	L−0.5	146.0	O150	120.2	114.0	64.0
Feb 22	North TexasAdjEM #151	A	L 72–73	+2.5	W+1.5	140.5	O145	112.1	113.7	64.2
Feb 18	UTSAAdjEM #350	A	W 60–52	−11.5	L−3.5	157.5	U112	88.7	76.9	67.6
Feb 15	South FloridaAdjEM #36	H	L 81–83 OT	+5.0	W+3.0	166.5	U164	105.7	108.3	76.6
Feb 11	RiceAdjEM #255	A	L 73–81	−3.5	L−11.5	151.5	O154	104.8	116.2	69.7
Feb 4	TulsaAdjEM #46	H	L 76–78	+2.5	W+0.5	163.5	U154	105.4	108.2	72.1

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

DavidsonFAU

Efficiency

108.7

109.1

105.9

106.7

65.9

69.9

—

Shooting

52.6%

52.2%

53.6%

35.4%

33.3%

63.9%

70.3%

31.0%

33.3%

Ball control & glass

15.8%

17.6%

17.5%

15.5%

28.1%

31.6%

30.0%

28.3%

9.1%

10.6%

9.6%

7.5%

Style

44.5%

38.2%

40.0%

45.6%

11.2%

15.6%

53.6%

47.1%

45.0%

32.3%

Roster

2.51

2.14

6'5.7"

6'5.9"

88.5%

—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Davidson

Returning minutes: 88.5%Returning production: 91.2%

Lost

Devin Brown 23.4 mpg, 6.4 ppg · transferred to Notre Dame

Added

Nobody of note.

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 88% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

FAU

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted FAU's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.