CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceGallagher-Iba Arena, Stillwater, OK

Tennessee St

Efficiency #155

2025-26: 23-10 · 17-5 conf

Oklahoma St

Efficiency #89

2025-26: 20-15 · 7-13 conf

Sun, Nov 29 · TBD

78.5

win 28%

Projected

85.3

win 72%

No line posted yet.

Model: OKST −6.8 · total 163.7 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Oklahoma St 71.7, Tennessee St 70.3 → 73.6 possessions

+11.5

Oklahoma St offense vs Tennessee St defense

+3.3

Tennessee St offense vs Oklahoma St defense

+0.7

Projected total

163.7

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Oklahoma St offense vs Tennessee St defense

+3.3

Tennessee St offense vs Oklahoma St defense

−0.7

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.2

Oklahoma St by 6.8

6.8

Tennessee St side ◂▸ Oklahoma St side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Oklahoma St.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 73.6, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Oklahoma St is the faster team (74.0, #6 of 365) and Tennessee St the slower (70.8, #61). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

73.6

per team, 40 min

Projected total

163.7

model

Projected team totals

78.5 / 85.3

Tennessee St / Oklahoma St

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

70.3#32

Tennessee St

71.7#8

Oklahoma St

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

Pace

Track meet

Oklahoma St averages 74.0 possessions per 40, Tennessee St 70.8. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 74 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

AdvantageTennessee St

Where Tennessee St scores: the offensive glass

Tennessee St rebounds 34.8% of its own misses (#53); Oklahoma St lets opponents grab 30.4% of their own misses (#178). Expect about 33.4%, 3.0 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +1.8 points per 100 possessions.

DefenseTennessee St

Tennessee St's ball-hawking

Tennessee St ranks #14 nationally in steal rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 11.4% of Oklahoma St's possessions to end in a steal against this defense.

AdvantageOklahoma St

Where Oklahoma St struggles: ball control

Oklahoma St turns it over on 15.8% of possessions (#120); Tennessee St forces turnovers on 19.8% of opponent possessions (#28). Expect about 18.2%, 1.4 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -1.7 points per 100 possessions.

ClashOklahoma St

Style match: 3-point volume

Oklahoma St rarely shoots threes (35.5% of its shots); Tennessee St runs teams off the line (35.9% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 34.0% — both habits push the same way.

ClashTennessee St

Style clash: 3-point volume

Tennessee St rarely shoots threes (30.7% of its shots); Oklahoma St lets opponents take 43.0% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 34.7% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).

Tennessee St has the ball

OffenseOklahoma St allowsvs D1 avg

50.0% #234

53.1% #272

+0.3 pt/100

16.7% #176

15.6% #243

+1.0 pt/100

34.8% #53

30.4% #178

+1.8 pt/100

33.4% #228

31.5% #96

-0.4 pt/100

76.0% #52

—

+0.3 pt/100

Tennessee St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +3.1 pts/100

Oklahoma St has the ball

OffenseTennessee St allowsvs D1 avg

52.0% #144

51.6% #190

+0.9 pt/100

15.8% #120

19.8% #28

-1.7 pt/100

30.8% #169

30.6% #184

+0.2 pt/100

39.4% #70

41.4% #317

+0.7 pt/100

74.5% #102

—

+0.2 pt/100

Oklahoma St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +0.3 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Tennessee Stoffense vsOklahoma Stdefense

Share of shots by zone

Tennessee St shoots

40.8

6.0

23.8

29.5

Oklahoma St allows

40.1

5.1

12.4

42.4

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	59.4%#151	57.2%#120	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	34.0%#303	48.5%#344	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	36.4%#256	36.9%#129	38.0%
Three	33.3%#208	36.0%#304	33.7%

Oklahoma Stoffense vsTennessee Stdefense

Share of shots by zone

Oklahoma St shoots

48.2

4.5

12.5

34.7

Tennessee St allows

44.2

6.1

14.2

35.5

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	58.4%#180	56.3%#93	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	34.4%#295	42.9%#247	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	36.5%#248	40.7%#264	38.0%
Three	33.9%#176	34.0%#183	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Tennessee St

+1.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#115 of 365

Off reb %

34.8%

#53

Def reb %

69.4%

#184

Turnover %

16.7%

#176

Forced TO %

19.8%

#28

FT rate

33.4%

#228

FT allowed

41.4%

#317

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+1.4

Defensive rebounding0.0

Ball security+0.1

Forcing turnovers+2.1

Foul shots drawn−0.4

Foul shots allowed−1.6

Oklahoma St

+2.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#87 of 365

Off reb %

30.8%

#169

Def reb %

69.6%

#178

Turnover %

15.8%

#120

Forced TO %

15.6%

#243

FT rate

39.4%

#70

FT allowed

31.5%

#96

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.1

Defensive rebounding+0.1

Ball security+0.7

Forcing turnovers−0.8

Foul shots drawn+1.1

Foul shots allowed+1.0

Oklahoma St has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.2 (#87 of 365) to Tennessee St’s +1.6 (#115).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Tennessee St2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
10	Dante Harris	G	Sr	6'0"	33-33	32.3	11.7	3.6	4.5	1.9	43.9%	30.0%	1.5	72.6%	24.1%
2	Travis Harper II	G	Sr	6'6"	33-32	31.3	17.1	4.1	1.2	1.5	57.4%	39.1%	6.3	85.7%	27.2%
12	Carlous Williams	F	Sr	6'5"	32-9	19.4	5.6	3.1	0.5	1.1	50.7%	32.1%	1.7	76.7%	18.0%
3	Khalil London	G	So	6'3"	24-0	15.3	6.4	1.6	1.1	1.3	39.7%	23.6%	3.0	75.0%	30.1%
7	Jabrion Spikes	G	Sr	6'2"	30-0	10.9	3.0	1.3	0.3	0.6	53.3%	25.0%	0.7	69.2%	16.7%
23	Kavien Jones	F	Fr	6'7"	30-0	10.6	2.7	2.4	0.2	0.2	60.3%	40.0%	0.2	44.4%	13.0%
1	Damon Howard Jr.	G	Fr	6'1"	21-0	7.3	1.7	0.7	0.9	0.3	32.2%	25.0%	1.0	77.8%	20.2%
4	JC Brooks	F	So	6'10"	18-1	8.1	1.7	2.0	0.3	0.5	47.8%	28.6%	0.4	60.0%	14.4%
31	Alex Garcia	F	Jr	6'9"	10-0	2.5	0.7	0.2	0.0	0.3	43.8%	16.7%	0.6	—	23.2%
20	Jayden Jones	G	Fr	6'4"	4-0	3.3	1.8	0.3	0.0	0.0	37.5%	0.0%	0.3	100.0%	32.6%
21	Jean Yvens Lafleur	F	Jr	6'11"	2-0	6.0	1.0	2.5	0.0	0.5	50.0%	—	0.0	—	13.0%
5	Maddux Bodenhamer	G	So	6'2"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
24	Ogien Ayo	F	Sr	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Oklahoma St2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Oklahoma St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	Kanye Clary	G	Jr	6'0"	34-31	28.2	10.6	2.9	4.6	2.0	46.2%	35.5%	3.6	80.7%	23.4%
9	Anthony Roy	G	Sr	6'5"	31-25	28.7	16.9	4.1	1.3	1.6	55.5%	39.0%	7.5	85.7%	29.4%
4	Christian Coleman	G	Sr	6'8"	34-26	25.3	10.3	5.6	1.0	1.2	53.7%	27.1%	1.7	66.7%	22.4%
5	Vyctorius Miller	G	So	6'5"	32-26	25.5	10.8	2.7	1.8	1.6	50.8%	37.5%	3.8	85.7%	23.1%
0	Jaylen Curry	G	Jr	6'1"	33-7	23.8	10.1	3.2	3.5	1.4	46.3%	31.6%	2.4	80.6%	25.1%
22	Parsa Fallah	F	Sr	6'10"	26-26	26.4	14.7	6.0	0.8	1.3	62.3%	40.0%	1.2	68.0%	26.1%
21	Isaiah Coleman	G	Jr	6'5"	33-5	19.2	6.4	3.8	0.8	1.2	50.0%	8.0%	0.8	57.1%	20.7%
19	Andrija Vukovic	F	So	6'11"	27-3	15.2	5.3	3.4	0.6	0.7	62.8%	33.3%	0.1	69.0%	16.7%
24	Ryan Crotty	G	Fr	6'6"	28-10	10.1	2.5	1.5	0.5	0.2	42.9%	29.6%	1.9	75.0%	14.8%
23	Benjamin Ahmed	C	Fr	6'10"	21-7	12.6	4.9	3.6	0.2	0.9	55.4%	—	0.0	56.6%	22.4%
72	Lefteris Mantzoukas	F	Fr	6'9"	12-6	17.8	4.4	4.2	0.5	1.0	44.6%	24.2%	2.8	60.0%	17.0%
8	Daniel Guetta	G	Fr	6'2"	11-0	9.5	2.0	0.7	0.8	1.1	52.8%	14.3%	0.6	60.0%	16.0%
13	Mekhi Ragland	F	Fr	6'11"	14-0	5.6	1.4	1.6	0.2	0.1	34.6%	0.0%	0.1	50.0%	19.3%
7	Kirk Cole	G	Sr	6'1"	12-0	4.5	1.0	0.3	0.3	0.1	46.2%	33.3%	1.0	—	13.2%
25	Robert Jennings II	F	Sr	6'7"	3-3	12.7	3.7	4.0	0.0	1.0	50.0%	50.0%	0.7	50.0%	18.0%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tennessee St2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
10	Dante Harris	G	Sr	6'0"	33-33	32.3	11.7	3.6	4.5	1.9	43.9%	30.0%	1.5	72.6%	24.1%
2	Travis Harper II	G	Sr	6'6"	33-32	31.3	17.1	4.1	1.2	1.5	57.4%	39.1%	6.3	85.7%	27.2%
12	Carlous Williams	F	Sr	6'5"	32-9	19.4	5.6	3.1	0.5	1.1	50.7%	32.1%	1.7	76.7%	18.0%
3	Khalil London	G	So	6'3"	24-0	15.3	6.4	1.6	1.1	1.3	39.7%	23.6%	3.0	75.0%	30.1%
7	Jabrion Spikes	G	Sr	6'2"	30-0	10.9	3.0	1.3	0.3	0.6	53.3%	25.0%	0.7	69.2%	16.7%
23	Kavien Jones	F	Fr	6'7"	30-0	10.6	2.7	2.4	0.2	0.2	60.3%	40.0%	0.2	44.4%	13.0%
1	Damon Howard Jr.	G	Fr	6'1"	21-0	7.3	1.7	0.7	0.9	0.3	32.2%	25.0%	1.0	77.8%	20.2%
4	JC Brooks	F	So	6'10"	18-1	8.1	1.7	2.0	0.3	0.5	47.8%	28.6%	0.4	60.0%	14.4%
31	Alex Garcia	F	Jr	6'9"	10-0	2.5	0.7	0.2	0.0	0.3	43.8%	16.7%	0.6	—	23.2%
20	Jayden Jones	G	Fr	6'4"	4-0	3.3	1.8	0.3	0.0	0.0	37.5%	0.0%	0.3	100.0%	32.6%
21	Jean Yvens Lafleur	F	Jr	6'11"	2-0	6.0	1.0	2.5	0.0	0.5	50.0%	—	0.0	—	13.0%
5	Maddux Bodenhamer	G	So	6'2"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
24	Ogien Ayo	F	Sr	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Tennessee St

Against the spread

Season

18-12

Home

5-5

Road

11-6

Last 10

7-3

avg cover +8.9

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 5 of 7 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

15-15

Home

5-5

Road

8-9

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total +1.1

Over 2 straightOver in 3 of 7 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 20	#2Iowa StateAdjEM #7	N	L 74–108	+25.0	L−9.0	147.5	O182	94.4	137.7	78.4
Mar 7	Morehead StAdjEM #266	N	W 93–67	−5.0	W+21.0	144.0	O160	133.2	96.0	69.8
Mar 6	UT MartinAdjEM #182	N	W 68–55	−2.0	W+11.0	137.5	U123	111.4	90.1	61.1
Feb 28	UT MartinAdjEM #182	A	W 67–42	+2.5	W+27.5	143.5	U109	101.5	63.6	66.0
Feb 26	SE MissouriAdjEM #209	A	W 79–71	+3.5	W+11.5	152.0	U150	107.3	96.4	73.6
Feb 21	SIUEAdjEM #229	H	W 80–53	−4.5	W+22.5	143.5	U133	125.6	83.2	63.7
Feb 19	LindenwoodAdjEM #244	H	W 89–80	−3.5	W+5.5	159.0	O169	112.2	100.9	79.3
Feb 14	Morehead StAdjEM #266	A	L 86–94	−1.5	L−9.5	151.0	O180	124.3	135.8	69.2
Feb 12	S IndianaAdjEM #333	A	W 73–71	−6.0	L−4.0	148.5	U144	110.2	107.2	66.2
Feb 7	W IllinoisAdjEM #362	H	W 83–56	−14.5	W+12.5	151.0	U139	121.9	82.3	68.1

Oklahoma St

Against the spread

Season

15-19-1

Home

8-13

Road

5-5

Last 10

4-5-1

avg cover −2.0

Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 4 of 8 as an underdog, 1 push

Over / under

Season

21-14

Home

14-7

Road

4-6

Last 10

8-2

avg vs total +11.9

Over 8 straightOver in 6 of 8 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 22	Wichita StAdjEM #60	H	L 70–96	−2.5	L−28.5	163.0	O166	95.1	130.5	73.6
Mar 17	DavidsonAdjEM #112	H	W 84–80	−6.5	L−2.5	154.0	O164	114.6	109.2	73.3
Mar 11	TCUAdjEM #51	N	L 88–95	+7.0	P0.0	158.0	O183	127.6	137.8	69.0
Mar 10	ColoradoAdjEM #91	N	W 92–83	+1.0	W+10.0	165.0	O175	125.8	113.5	73.1
Mar 7	#7HoustonAdjEM #6	H	L 75–82	+13.5	W+6.5	150.5	O157	112.1	122.6	66.9
Mar 3	UCFAdjEM #70	A	W 111–104 OT	+8.5	W+15.5	168.5	O215	127.3	119.3	87.2
Feb 28	CincinnatiAdjEM #52	A	L 68–91	+9.5	L−13.5	152.5	O159	94.7	126.7	71.8
Feb 24	West VirginiaAdjEM #58	H	W 91–84 OT	+1.0	W+8.0	143.5	O175	125.1	115.4	72.8
Feb 21	ColoradoAdjEM #91	A	L 69–83	+3.5	L−10.5	162.5	U152	95.6	114.9	72.2
Feb 18	#8KansasAdjEM #25	H	L 69–81	+6.5	L−5.5	159.5	U150	98.2	115.2	70.3

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

Tennessee StOklahoma St

Efficiency

109.4

113.1

108.3

108.6

70.3

71.7

—

Shooting

50.0%

52.0%

50.0%

52.6%

33.3%

33.9%

76.0%

74.5%

33.4%

39.4%

Ball control & glass

16.7%

15.8%

19.8%

15.6%

34.8%

30.8%

30.6%

30.4%

10.3%

9.1%

7.7%

10.3%

Style

30.7%

35.5%

45.1%

45.9%

18.3%

15.5%

45.5%

50.4%

29.7%

35.8%

Roster

3.38

2.92

6'3.7"

6'5.4"

61.6%

—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Tennessee St

Returning minutes: 61.6%Returning production: 51.9%

Lost

Aaron Nkrumah 31.3 mpg, 17.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Jalen Pitre 24.3 mpg, 6.4 ppg · transferred to Buffalo
Antoine Lorick III 21.5 mpg, 9.8 ppg · transferred to Buffalo

Added

Maddux Bodenhamer no D1 minutes last season
Ogien Ayo no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 62% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5 (2 transferred).

Oklahoma St

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Oklahoma St's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.