CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceNeutral siteNationwide Arena, Columbus, OH
South Florida
Efficiency #36
2025-26: 25-9 · 17-3 conf
vs
Saint Louis
Efficiency #20
2025-26: 29-6 · 16-4 conf
Sun, Nov 29 · TBD
79.8
win 42%
Projected
82.3
win 58%
No line posted yet.
Model: SLU −2.4 · total 162.1 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Saint Louis 70.7, South Florida 71.0 → 73.4 possessions
+11.1
Saint Louis offense vs South Florida defense
+2.6
South Florida offense vs Saint Louis defense
+0.2
Projected total
162.1
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Saint Louis offense vs South Florida defense
+2.6
South Florida offense vs Saint Louis defense
−0.2
Saint Louis by 2.4
2.4
South Florida side ◂▸ Saint Louis side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Saint Louis.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 73.4, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, South Florida is the faster team (73.0, #12 of 365) and Saint Louis the slower (72.1, #22). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
73.4
per team, 40 min
Projected total
162.1
model
Projected team totals
79.8 / 82.3
South Florida / Saint Louis
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
71.0#15
South Florida
70.7#21
Saint Louis
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetPace
Track meet
Saint Louis averages 72.1 possessions per 40, South Florida 73.0. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 74 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
AdvantageSaint Louis
Where Saint Louis scores: shooting
Saint Louis shoots an effective 59.7% (#2); South Florida allows 48.8% (#58). Expect about 54.9%, 3.6 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +5.2 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageSouth Florida
Where South Florida struggles: shooting
South Florida shoots an effective 50.6% (#209); Saint Louis allows 45.2% (#3). Expect about 47.8%, 3.5 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -4.9 points per 100 possessions.
ClashSouth Florida
Strength vs strength: offensive rebounding
South Florida (#7 in offensive rebounding) against Saint Louis (#43 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 34.3%. Historically South Florida's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.70 vs 0.49).
TurnoversSaint Louis
Saint Louis turns it over
Projected turnover rate of 18.5% is worth roughly -2.1 points per 100 possessions against Saint Louis's offense.
ClashSaint Louis
Strength vs strength: 2-point shooting
Saint Louis (#11 in 2-point shooting) against South Florida (#26 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 53.8%. Historically Saint Louis's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.61 vs 0.55).
South Florida has the ball
OffenseSaint Louis allowsvs D1 avg
50.6% #209
45.2% #3
-4.9 pt/100
15.1% #74
15.9% #224
+1.8 pt/100
38.1% #7
27.2% #43
+2.4 pt/100
40.4% #55
37.1% #242
+0.5 pt/100
74.6% #101
—
+0.2 pt/100
South Florida net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -0.1 pts/100
Saint Louis has the ball
OffenseSouth Florida allowsvs D1 avg
59.7% #2
48.8% #58
+5.2 pt/100
17.2% #217
19.1% #42
-2.1 pt/100
30.7% #173
31.9% #252
+0.6 pt/100
33.7% #221
39.1% #287
+0.2 pt/100
74.1% #128
—
+0.1 pt/100
Saint Louis net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +3.9 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersSouth Floridaoffense vsSaint Louisdefense
Share of shots by zone
South Florida shoots
46.7
5.1
4.1
44.1
Saint Louis allows
38.4
7.1
12.5
42.0
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 55.0%#299 | 48.0%#2 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 37.8%#227 | 35.0%#57 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 25.0%#365 | 37.0%#132 | 38.0% |
| Three | 32.5%#255 | 30.3%#14 | 33.7% |
Saint Louisoffense vsSouth Floridadefense
Share of shots by zone
Saint Louis shoots
46.6
4.8
3.8
44.8
South Florida allows
35.9
8.0
16.8
39.3
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 61.9%#76 | 54.7%#57 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 43.2%#99 | 34.5%#52 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 33.8%#317 | 34.8%#69 | 38.0% |
| Three | 39.9%#2 | 34.5%#218 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersSouth Florida
+5.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#18 of 365
Off reb %
38.1%
#7
Def reb %
68.1%
#252
Turnover %
15.1%
#74
Forced TO %
19.1%
#42
FT rate
40.4%
#55
FT allowed
39.1%
#287
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+2.5
Defensive rebounding−0.4
Ball security+1.1
Forcing turnovers+1.7
Foul shots drawn+1.4
Foul shots allowed−1.0
Saint Louis
−0.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#196 of 365
Off reb %
30.7%
#173
Def reb %
72.8%
#43
Turnover %
17.2%
#217
Forced TO %
15.9%
#224
FT rate
33.7%
#221
FT allowed
37.1%
#242
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.1
Defensive rebounding+1.1
Ball security−0.3
Forcing turnovers−0.5
Foul shots drawn−0.3
Foul shots allowed−0.5
South Florida has more extra scoring chances per game: +5.3 (#18 of 365) to Saint Louis’s −0.4 (#196).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
South Florida2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Wes Enis | G | Jr | 6'2" | 32-29 | 34.0 | 16.4 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 51.1% | 35.2% | 9.5 | 81.4% | 27.1% | |
| 5 | Joseph Pinion | G | Sr | 6'5" | 34-34 | 30.2 | 14.6 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 52.2% | 37.8% | 8.6 | 78.7% | 27.2% | |
| 8 | Josh Omojafo | G | Sr | 6'5" | 34-32 | 27.2 | 11.3 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 50.2% | 29.7% | 2.2 | 78.2% | 21.5% | |
| 11 | CJ Brown | G | So | 6'2" | 34-34 | 26.6 | 10.9 | 3.9 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 40.7% | 24.2% | 1.9 | 72.7% | 27.4% | |
| 3 | Isaiah Jones | F | Sr | 6'7" | 34-1 | 15.8 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 53.0% | 31.4% | 2.5 | 82.9% | 14.6% | |
| 6 | Daimion Collins | F | Sr | 6'9" | 33-1 | 14.1 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 59.9% | 15.8% | 0.6 | 60.0% | 15.0% | |
| 21 | Adriel Nyorha | G | Fr | 6'5" | 26-2 | 11.0 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 44.8% | 32.3% | 1.2 | 67.9% | 25.3% | |
| 9 | Gavin Hightower | G | Fr | 6'1" | 26-0 | 10.2 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 53.5% | 20.0% | 0.2 | 67.4% | 25.5% | |
| 4 | Devin Haid | G | Sr | 6'5" | 23-0 | 10.0 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 47.7% | 31.4% | 1.5 | 93.3% | 18.5% | |
| 7 | Caleb Sanders | F | Fr | 6'6" | 10-2 | 8.2 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 52.8% | 33.3% | 0.9 | 66.7% | 19.4% | |
| 0 | Xavier Brown | G | Sr | 6'2" | 3-0 | 12.0 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 33.3% | 33.3% | 2.0 | 50.0% | 16.3% | |
| 15 | Onyx Nnani | F | Fr | 6'9" | 1-0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 0.0% | |
| 1 | De'Ante Green | F | Sr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Saint Louis2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Quentin Jones | G | Jr | 6'5" | 35-33 | 26.5 | 9.1 | 3.9 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 52.3% | 36.2% | 2.7 | 80.0% | 20.8% | |
| 3 | Trey Green | G | So | 6'0" | 34-30 | 23.6 | 10.7 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 64.0% | 44.2% | 6.1 | 86.1% | 20.7% | |
| 9 | Ishan Sharma | F | So | 6'5" | 35-2 | 22.2 | 9.1 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 61.6% | 41.7% | 5.5 | 86.0% | 19.0% | |
| 4 | Amari McCottry | G | So | 6'6" | 34-31 | 22.9 | 10.5 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 55.1% | 29.0% | 1.8 | 58.2% | 28.7% | |
| 0 | Kellen Thames | G | Jr | 6'6" | 33-2 | 17.1 | 9.7 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 65.8% | 25.0% | 0.4 | 62.8% | 28.3% | |
| 25 | Paul Otieno | F | Sr | 6'9" | 35-4 | 15.3 | 5.3 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 60.0% | 66.7% | 0.1 | 77.5% | 17.2% | |
| 15 | Jax Kerr | F | Fr | 6'11" | 17-0 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 43.0% | 18.5% | 1.6 | 63.6% | 28.8% | |
| 24 | Cam Hutson | G | Fr | 6'5" | 18-0 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 39.3% | 12.5% | 0.9 | 71.4% | 26.8% | |
| 5 | Jaden Schertz | G | Jr | 5'11" | 12-1 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 42.9% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 50.0% | 15.5% | |
| 12 | Isaac Holmes | G | Jr | 6'4" | 13-0 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 41.7% | 22.2% | 0.7 | 50.0% | 18.7% | |
| 2 | Badara Diakite | F | Fr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 33 | Dylan Warlick | F | So | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 6 | Kalu Anya | F | Sr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 14 | Luke Laczkowski | G | Fr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
South Florida2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Wes Enis | G | Jr | 6'2" | 32-29 | 34.0 | 16.4 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 51.1% | 35.2% | 9.5 | 81.4% | 27.1% | |
| 5 | Joseph Pinion | G | Sr | 6'5" | 34-34 | 30.2 | 14.6 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 52.2% | 37.8% | 8.6 | 78.7% | 27.2% | |
| 8 | Josh Omojafo | G | Sr | 6'5" | 34-32 | 27.2 | 11.3 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 50.2% | 29.7% | 2.2 | 78.2% | 21.5% | |
| 11 | CJ Brown | G | So | 6'2" | 34-34 | 26.6 | 10.9 | 3.9 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 40.7% | 24.2% | 1.9 | 72.7% | 27.4% | |
| 3 | Isaiah Jones | F | Sr | 6'7" | 34-1 | 15.8 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 53.0% | 31.4% | 2.5 | 82.9% | 14.6% | |
| 6 | Daimion Collins | F | Sr | 6'9" | 33-1 | 14.1 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 59.9% | 15.8% | 0.6 | 60.0% | 15.0% | |
| 21 | Adriel Nyorha | G | Fr | 6'5" | 26-2 | 11.0 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 44.8% | 32.3% | 1.2 | 67.9% | 25.3% | |
| 9 | Gavin Hightower | G | Fr | 6'1" | 26-0 | 10.2 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 53.5% | 20.0% | 0.2 | 67.4% | 25.5% | |
| 4 | Devin Haid | G | Sr | 6'5" | 23-0 | 10.0 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 47.7% | 31.4% | 1.5 | 93.3% | 18.5% | |
| 7 | Caleb Sanders | F | Fr | 6'6" | 10-2 | 8.2 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 52.8% | 33.3% | 0.9 | 66.7% | 19.4% | |
| 0 | Xavier Brown | G | Sr | 6'2" | 3-0 | 12.0 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 33.3% | 33.3% | 2.0 | 50.0% | 16.3% | |
| 15 | Onyx Nnani | F | Fr | 6'9" | 1-0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 0.0% | |
| 1 | De'Ante Green | F | Sr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26South Florida
Against the spread
Season
18-14-1
Home
9-5
Road
7-5
Last 10
7-2-1
avg cover +5.6
Covered 7 of 9 as a favoriteCovered 4 of 4 with a line of 10+
Over / under
Season
15-18
Home
5-9
Road
7-5
Last 10
2-8
avg vs total −9.3
Over in the last gameOver in 1 of 9 as a favoriteOver in 0 of 4 with a line of 10+
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19 | #6Louisville | N | L 79–83 | +4.0 | P0.0 | 160.0 | O162 | 105.0 | 110.3 | 75.2 |
| Mar 15 | Wichita St | N | W 70–55 | −6.0 | W+9.0 | 150.5 | U125 | 102.6 | 80.6 | 68.2 |
| Mar 14 | Charlotte | N | W 86–64 | −15.5 | W+6.5 | 153.5 | U150 | 125.1 | 93.1 | 68.7 |
| Mar 8 | Charlotte | H | W 83–60 | −17.5 | W+5.5 | 155.5 | U143 | 125.9 | 91.0 | 65.9 |
| Mar 5 | Memphis | A | W 96–89 | −7.5 | L−0.5 | 161.5 | O185 | 123.8 | 114.8 | 77.5 |
| Mar 1 | Tulane | H | W 90–62 | −15.0 | W+13.0 | 154.5 | U152 | 123.5 | 85.1 | 72.8 |
| Feb 25 | Rice | A | W 75–56 | −11.0 | W+8.0 | 157.0 | U131 | 107.8 | 80.5 | 69.6 |
| Feb 19 | Memphis | H | W 87–66 | −9.5 | W+11.5 | 163.5 | U153 | 124.2 | 94.2 | 70.1 |
| Feb 15 | FAU | A | W 83–81 OT | −5.0 | L−3.0 | 166.5 | U164 | 108.3 | 105.7 | 76.6 |
| Feb 11 | Wichita St | A | W 66–58 | −2.0 | W+6.0 | 160.0 | U124 | 95.1 | 83.5 | 69.4 |
Saint Louis
Against the spread
Season
19-14-1
Home
13-5
Road
4-6
Last 10
4-6
avg cover −6.0
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 8 as a favorite
Over / under
Season
17-16-1
Home
10-8
Road
4-5-1
Last 10
5-5
avg vs total −0.5
Over 2 straightOver in 3 of 8 as a favorite
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21 | #1Michigan | N | L 72–95 | +12.0 | L−11.0 | 160.5 | O167 | 102.1 | 134.7 | 70.5 |
| Mar 19 | #8Georgia | N | W 102–77 | +1.5 | W+26.5 | 167.5 | O179 | 127.8 | 96.5 | 79.8 |
| Mar 14 | Dayton | N | L 69–70 | −5.0 | L−6.0 | 145.5 | U139 | 100.8 | 102.3 | 68.4 |
| Mar 13 | G Washington | N | W 88–81 | −6.5 | W+0.5 | 162.5 | O169 | 118.2 | 108.8 | 74.4 |
| Mar 7 | George Mason | A | L 57–86 | −7.0 | L−36.0 | 147.0 | U143 | 90.6 | 136.6 | 62.9 |
| Mar 4 | Loyola Chicago | H | W 79–65 | −21.5 | L−7.5 | 155.0 | U144 | 132.9 | 109.4 | 59.4 |
| Feb 28 | Duquesne | H | W 91–76 | −13.5 | W+1.5 | 160.0 | O167 | 138.6 | 115.7 | 65.7 |
| Feb 24 | Dayton | A | L 62–77 | −3.5 | L−18.5 | 157.5 | U139 | 89.3 | 110.9 | 69.4 |
| Feb 20 | VCU | H | W 88–75 | −7.5 | W+5.5 | 164.5 | U163 | 114.1 | 97.3 | 77.1 |
| Feb 17 | Rhode Island | A | L 76–81 | −9.5 | L−14.5 | 152.0 | O157 | 101.9 | 108.6 | 74.6 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeSouth FloridaSaint Louis
Efficiency
114.7
117.2
103.3
102.5
71.0
70.7
—
—
Shooting
50.6%
59.7%
52.0%
59.5%
32.5%
39.9%
74.6%
74.1%
40.4%
33.7%
Ball control & glass
15.1%
17.2%
19.1%
15.9%
38.1%
30.7%
31.9%
27.2%
8.6%
10.1%
13.1%
11.2%
Style
43.8%
45.1%
43.5%
44.4%
16.5%
18.7%
58.4%
60.4%
29.9%
39.3%
Roster
3.18
2.52
6'4.3"
6'5"
84.4%
66.8%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputSouth Florida
Returning minutes: 84.4%Returning production: 76.6%
Lost
- Izaiyah Nelson 27.3 mpg, 15.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Tristan Beckford 4.4 mpg, 1.6 ppg · transferred to Bowling Green
Added
- De'Ante Green no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 84% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Saint Louis
Returning minutes: 66.8%Returning production: 64.6%
Lost
- Robbie Avila 26.4 mpg, 12.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Dion Brown 23.7 mpg, 11.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Brady Dunlap 16.4 mpg, 6.8 ppg · transferred to Georgia
Added
- Dylan Warlick no D1 minutes last season
- Luke Laczkowski no D1 minutes last season
- Kalu Anya no D1 minutes last season
- Badara Diakite no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 67% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.