CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceWilliam R. Johnson Coliseum, Nacogdoches, TX
UT Arlington
Efficiency #171
2025-26: 18-14 · 10-10 conf
@
SF Austin
Efficiency #73
2025-26: 28-6 · 21-3 conf
Wed, Dec 9 · 7:30 PM ET
63.7
win 25%
Projected
71.7
win 75%
No line posted yet.
Model: SFA −8.0 · total 135.5 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: SF Austin 67.3, UT Arlington 66.7 → 65.6 possessions
−5.8
SF Austin offense vs UT Arlington defense
−1.4
UT Arlington offense vs SF Austin defense
−5.6
Projected total
135.5
Axis starts at 130 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
SF Austin offense vs UT Arlington defense
−1.4
UT Arlington offense vs SF Austin defense
+5.6
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.8
SF Austin by 8.0
8.0
UT Arlington side ◂▸ SF Austin side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 135.4 against a projected 135.5. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help SF Austin.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 65.6, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, UT Arlington is the faster team (66.5, #272 of 365) and SF Austin the slower (66.2, #285). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
65.6
per team, 40 min
Projected total
135.5
model
Projected team totals
63.7 / 71.7
UT Arlington / SF Austin
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
66.7#309
UT Arlington
67.3#268
SF Austin
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageUT Arlington
Where UT Arlington struggles: shooting
UT Arlington shoots an effective 47.2% (#332); SF Austin allows 47.7% (#35). Expect about 47.1%, 4.2 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -5.9 points per 100 possessions.
TurnoversUT Arlington
UT Arlington turns it over
Projected turnover rate of 19.6% is worth roughly -3.5 points per 100 possessions against UT Arlington's offense.
ClashUT Arlington
Style match: 3-point volume
UT Arlington rarely shoots threes (30.7% of its shots); SF Austin runs teams off the line (35.5% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 29.9% — both habits push the same way.
Pace
Half-court grind
SF Austin averages 66.2 possessions per 40, UT Arlington 66.5. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 65 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
AdvantageSF Austin
Where SF Austin struggles: shooting
SF Austin shoots an effective 51.7% (#160); UT Arlington allows 47.4% (#29). Expect about 49.6%, 1.7 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.4 points per 100 possessions.
ClashUT Arlington
Style match: ball movement
UT Arlington creates off the dribble (assists on 46.4% of its baskets); SF Austin breaks up passing offenses (assists on 47.5% allowed) (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 45.3% — both habits push the same way.
UT Arlington has the ball
OffenseSF Austin allowsvs D1 avg
47.2% #332
47.7% #35
-5.9 pt/100
20.7% #354
17.6% #116
-3.5 pt/100
34.9% #50
29.5% #131
+1.6 pt/100
42.5% #24
31.1% #85
+0.2 pt/100
72.3% #195
—
-0.0 pt/100
UT Arlington net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -7.6 pts/100
SF Austin has the ball
OffenseUT Arlington allowsvs D1 avg
51.7% #160
47.4% #29
-2.4 pt/100
14.3% #29
18.0% #94
+0.8 pt/100
33.8% #74
30.1% #166
+1.3 pt/100
30.1% #306
40.9% #311
+0.1 pt/100
68.6% #310
—
-0.3 pt/100
SF Austin net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -0.5 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersUT Arlingtonoffense vsSF Austindefense
Share of shots by zone
UT Arlington shoots
48.2
6.8
14.0
30.9
SF Austin allows
40.2
7.1
17.2
35.5
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 53.5%#329 | 53.1%#24 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 35.5%#279 | 43.6%#260 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 37.9%#190 | 39.8%#234 | 38.0% |
| Three | 29.1%#352 | 30.3%#11 | 33.7% |
SF Austinoffense vsUT Arlingtondefense
Share of shots by zone
SF Austin shoots
35.4
6.4
18.7
39.5
UT Arlington allows
39.0
6.9
21.7
32.4
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 57.0%#240 | 57.2%#123 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 43.1%#102 | 45.0%#296 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 40.5%#94 | 39.5%#219 | 38.0% |
| Three | 35.8%#71 | 26.9%#1 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersUT Arlington
+0.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#169 of 365
Off reb %
34.9%
#50
Def reb %
69.9%
#166
Turnover %
20.7%
#354
Forced TO %
18.0%
#94
FT rate
42.5%
#24
FT allowed
40.9%
#311
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.4
Defensive rebounding+0.2
Ball security−2.7
Forcing turnovers+0.9
Foul shots drawn+1.9
Foul shots allowed−1.4
SF Austin
+3.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#44 of 365
Off reb %
33.8%
#74
Def reb %
70.5%
#131
Turnover %
14.3%
#29
Forced TO %
17.6%
#116
FT rate
30.1%
#306
FT allowed
31.1%
#85
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.1
Defensive rebounding+0.4
Ball security+1.7
Forcing turnovers+0.6
Foul shots drawn−1.3
Foul shots allowed+1.1
SF Austin has more extra scoring chances per game: +3.6 (#44 of 365) to UT Arlington’s +0.3 (#169).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
UT Arlington2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted UT Arlington's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Raysean Seamster | F | Sr | 6'7" | 32-32 | 29.7 | 12.2 | 6.4 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 51.6% | 24.6% | 1.8 | 57.7% | 27.3% | |
| 42 | Marcell McCreary | G | Sr | 6'4" | 32-30 | 29.3 | 12.6 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 51.3% | 32.3% | 4.9 | 85.0% | 26.0% | |
| 1 | Cash Chavis | G | So | 6'2" | 32-32 | 27.1 | 10.5 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 40.9% | 28.0% | 1.6 | 78.6% | 29.1% | |
| 8 | Bahsil Laster | G | So | 6'4" | 32-9 | 19.3 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 39.1% | 20.9% | 1.3 | 79.4% | 25.6% | |
| 4 | Marcus Rigsby Jr. | G | Sr | 6'3" | 31-16 | 17.7 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 50.0% | 31.5% | 2.4 | 65.6% | 18.3% | |
| 3 | Tyran Mason | G | So | 6'6" | 32-3 | 16.9 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 50.0% | 29.8% | 1.5 | 68.5% | 24.3% | |
| 34 | Cameron Jackson | F | So | 6'8" | 31-13 | 17.1 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 62.7% | — | 0.0 | 52.5% | 14.4% | |
| 0 | Jordan Lowery | G | Fr | 6'1" | 32-6 | 15.6 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 44.4% | 29.9% | 2.1 | 80.0% | 21.5% | |
| 5 | Miles Goodman | F | So | 6'11" | 30-16 | 13.3 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 46.8% | 33.3% | 0.3 | 51.6% | 19.8% | |
| 33 | Amari Reed | F | Fr | 6'8" | 30-2 | 10.5 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 59.6% | — | 0.0 | 55.6% | 17.8% | |
| 11 | Jayden Smoot | G | Fr | 6'1" | 23-1 | 11.0 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 42.5% | 27.3% | 1.4 | 78.9% | 17.5% | |
| 7 | Alex Bossinakis | G | Jr | 6'2" | 4-0 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 25.0% | 0.0% | 0.8 | — | 31.8% | |
| 12 | Augustine Youssef | G | Fr | 6'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 21 | Stoney Hadnot | F | So | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
SF Austin2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted SF Austin's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Keon Thompson | G | Sr | 6'1" | 34-34 | 29.8 | 18.5 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 52.8% | 32.1% | 2.5 | 69.3% | 38.3% | |
| 1 | Chrishawn Christmas | G | Sr | 6'5" | 34-34 | 29.1 | 6.3 | 6.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 54.0% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 43.1% | 13.9% | |
| 11 | Lateef Patrick | G | Jr | — | 34-34 | 28.5 | 15.2 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 47.1% | 33.8% | 6.3 | 81.3% | 34.0% | |
| 2 | Jerald Colonel | F | Sr | 6'9" | 34-34 | 25.1 | 5.0 | 7.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 50.4% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 56.4% | 13.1% | |
| 6 | Narit Chotikavanic | G | So | — | 34-0 | 22.5 | 9.6 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 56.2% | 39.4% | 6.5 | 70.3% | 23.3% | |
| 0 | Kam Burton | G | Jr | 6'3" | 34-34 | 18.6 | 7.9 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 59.2% | 42.5% | 5.3 | 85.2% | 22.4% | |
| 21 | Ahamed Mohammed | G | Sr | — | 34-0 | 15.8 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 42.5% | 33.3% | 1.9 | 75.0% | 20.3% | |
| 17 | Gediminas Alisas | F | So | — | 34-0 | 14.0 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 63.2% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 67.6% | 19.7% | |
| 4 | Marcus Scurry | G | Fr | — | 28-0 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 51.9% | 35.6% | 1.6 | 58.3% | 26.8% | |
| 3 | Christian Green | G | Jr | — | 28-0 | 6.9 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 54.2% | — | 0.0 | 33.3% | 10.8% | |
| 12 | Eltramon Smith Jr. | F | So | — | 16-0 | 7.1 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 40.8% | 13.0% | 1.4 | 0.0% | 23.8% | |
| 7 | Tichyque Musaka | F | Jr | 6'11" | 8-0 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 60.0% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 20.0% | 24.9% | |
| 9 | Harris Dar | G | So | — | 8-0 | 3.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 66.7% | — | 0.0 | — | 10.9% | |
| 8 | Bryceson Melvin | G | Fr | — | 4-0 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 23.1% | 0.0% | 1.0 | 50.0% | 32.3% | |
| 10 | Yohan Gutierrez | F | Fr | — | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
UT Arlington2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted UT Arlington's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Raysean Seamster | F | Sr | 6'7" | 32-32 | 29.7 | 12.2 | 6.4 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 51.6% | 24.6% | 1.8 | 57.7% | 27.3% | |
| 42 | Marcell McCreary | G | Sr | 6'4" | 32-30 | 29.3 | 12.6 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 51.3% | 32.3% | 4.9 | 85.0% | 26.0% | |
| 1 | Cash Chavis | G | So | 6'2" | 32-32 | 27.1 | 10.5 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 40.9% | 28.0% | 1.6 | 78.6% | 29.1% | |
| 8 | Bahsil Laster | G | So | 6'4" | 32-9 | 19.3 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 39.1% | 20.9% | 1.3 | 79.4% | 25.6% | |
| 4 | Marcus Rigsby Jr. | G | Sr | 6'3" | 31-16 | 17.7 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 50.0% | 31.5% | 2.4 | 65.6% | 18.3% | |
| 3 | Tyran Mason | G | So | 6'6" | 32-3 | 16.9 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 50.0% | 29.8% | 1.5 | 68.5% | 24.3% | |
| 34 | Cameron Jackson | F | So | 6'8" | 31-13 | 17.1 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 62.7% | — | 0.0 | 52.5% | 14.4% | |
| 0 | Jordan Lowery | G | Fr | 6'1" | 32-6 | 15.6 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 44.4% | 29.9% | 2.1 | 80.0% | 21.5% | |
| 5 | Miles Goodman | F | So | 6'11" | 30-16 | 13.3 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 46.8% | 33.3% | 0.3 | 51.6% | 19.8% | |
| 33 | Amari Reed | F | Fr | 6'8" | 30-2 | 10.5 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 59.6% | — | 0.0 | 55.6% | 17.8% | |
| 11 | Jayden Smoot | G | Fr | 6'1" | 23-1 | 11.0 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 42.5% | 27.3% | 1.4 | 78.9% | 17.5% | |
| 7 | Alex Bossinakis | G | Jr | 6'2" | 4-0 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 25.0% | 0.0% | 0.8 | — | 31.8% | |
| 12 | Augustine Youssef | G | Fr | 6'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 21 | Stoney Hadnot | F | So | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26UT Arlington
Against the spread
Season
17-13
Home
7-4
Road
8-8
Last 10
5-5
avg cover −0.7
Covered 4 straightCovered 3 of 7 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
7-23
Home
3-8
Road
4-12
Last 10
1-9
avg vs total −9.2
Under 7 straightOver in 0 of 7 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 13 | Utah Valley | N | L 65–67 | +8.0 | W+6.0 | 136.0 | U132 | 104.2 | 107.4 | 62.4 |
| Mar 12 | Southern Utah | N | W 69–63 | −5.0 | W+1.0 | 141.5 | U132 | 96.7 | 88.3 | 71.3 |
| Mar 7 | Abilene Chrstn | A | W 64–57 | +1.0 | W+8.0 | 133.0 | U121 | 97.8 | 87.1 | 65.4 |
| Mar 5 | Tarleton St | A | W 65–60 | +1.0 | W+6.0 | 136.0 | U125 | 107.4 | 99.2 | 60.5 |
| Feb 26 | CA Baptist | A | L 56–68 | +6.5 | L−5.5 | 134.5 | U124 | 89.0 | 108.1 | 62.9 |
| Feb 21 | Utah Valley | H | L 54–66 | +5.5 | L−6.5 | 137.5 | U120 | 81.0 | 99.0 | 66.6 |
| Feb 19 | Utah Tech | H | W 63–50 | −4.5 | W+8.5 | 140.5 | U113 | 103.0 | 81.7 | 61.2 |
| Feb 14 | Southern Utah | H | L 73–78 | −8.5 | L−13.5 | 144.5 | O151 | 104.5 | 111.7 | 69.8 |
| Feb 12 | Abilene Chrstn | A | L 63–67 | +1.5 | L−2.5 | 135.0 | U130 | 93.7 | 99.7 | 67.2 |
| Feb 7 | Utah Valley | A | L 60–81 | +13.0 | L−8.0 | 143.0 | U141 | 101.9 | 137.6 | 58.9 |
SF Austin
Against the spread
Season
23-9
Home
10-4
Road
13-3
Last 10
5-5
avg cover −2.1
Covered the last gameCovered 3 of 7 as a favorite
Over / under
Season
13-18-1
Home
5-8-1
Road
7-9
Last 10
5-5
avg vs total −0.1
Over 2 straightOver in 3 of 7 as a favorite
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17 | Tulsa | A | L 84–89 OT | +6.5 | W+1.5 | 150.5 | O173 | 107.0 | 113.3 | 78.5 |
| Mar 11 | McNeese | N | L 59–76 | +3.5 | L−13.5 | 134.5 | O135 | 92.4 | 119.0 | 63.9 |
| Mar 10 | Texas A&M-CC | N | W 60–58 | −6.0 | L−4.0 | 134.5 | U118 | 98.0 | 94.7 | 61.3 |
| Mar 2 | Incarnate Word | A | W 76–68 | −7.0 | W+1.0 | 143.5 | O144 | 126.2 | 113.0 | 60.2 |
| Feb 28 | Hou Christian | A | W 77–56 | −8.5 | W+12.5 | 137.5 | U133 | 122.9 | 89.4 | 62.6 |
| Feb 23 | LSU N Orleans | H | L 73–77 | −11.5 | L−15.5 | 152.0 | U150 | 107.5 | 113.4 | 67.9 |
| Feb 21 | Nicholls | H | W 81–78 | −12.0 | L−9.0 | 148.5 | O159 | 122.0 | 117.5 | 66.4 |
| Feb 16 | Texas A&M-CC | A | W 78–68 | −5.0 | W+5.0 | 136.5 | O146 | 116.4 | 101.5 | 67.0 |
| Feb 14 | UT Rio Grande | A | W 66–57 | +2.5 | W+11.5 | 143.5 | U123 | 105.5 | 91.1 | 62.6 |
| Feb 9 | East Texas A&M | H | W 74–70 | −15.0 | L−11.0 | 144.5 | U144 | 110.7 | 104.7 | 66.8 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeUT ArlingtonSF Austin
Efficiency
103.9
111.2
103.6
104.5
66.7
67.3
—
—
Shooting
47.2%
51.7%
48.8%
50.4%
29.1%
35.8%
72.3%
68.6%
42.5%
30.1%
Ball control & glass
20.7%
14.3%
18.0%
17.6%
34.9%
33.8%
30.1%
29.5%
11.0%
8.2%
9.5%
10.1%
Style
30.7%
39.8%
49.5%
41.1%
15.1%
9.6%
46.4%
48.5%
38.6%
34.7%
Roster
2.59
3.23
6'4.9"
6'4.5"
—
—
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputUT Arlington
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted UT Arlington's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
SF Austin
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted SF Austin's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Head-to-head
this season and last| Date | Season | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sat, Nov 29 | 2025-26 | SF Austin 61 – 66 UT Arlington |
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.