CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceSwinney Center, Kansas City, MO

E Illinois

Efficiency #317

2025-26: 13-20 · 9-13 conf

Kansas City

Efficiency #359

2025-26: 4-27 · 1-16 conf

Wed, Dec 9 · TBD

71.1

win 54%

Projected

70.0

win 46%

No line posted yet.

Model: EIU −1.1 · total 141.1 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Kansas City 69.9, E Illinois 67.2 → 68.8 possessions

+1.0

Kansas City offense vs E Illinois defense

−6.6

E Illinois offense vs Kansas City defense

−1.5

Projected total

141.1

Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Kansas City offense vs E Illinois defense

−6.6

E Illinois offense vs Kansas City defense

+1.5

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.0

E Illinois by 1.1

1.1

E Illinois side ◂▸ Kansas City side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Kansas City.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 68.8, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Kansas City is the faster team (71.4, #35 of 365) and E Illinois the slower (66.2, #286). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

68.8

per team, 40 min

Projected total

141.1

model

Projected team totals

71.1 / 70.0

E Illinois / Kansas City

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

67.2#277

E Illinois

69.9#54

Kansas City

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageKansas City

Where Kansas City struggles: shooting

Kansas City shoots an effective 45.7% (#352); E Illinois allows 50.8% (#146). Expect about 47.8%, 3.5 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -4.9 points per 100 possessions.

TurnoversKansas City

Kansas City turns it over

Projected turnover rate of 19.2% is worth roughly -3.0 points per 100 possessions against Kansas City's offense.

Pace

Tempo tug-of-war

Kansas City averages 71.4 possessions per 40, E Illinois 66.2. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 69 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Kansas City, Kansas City's defense, E Illinois's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect E Illinois at about 31.5% of its shots from three, Kansas City about 38.4%.

ClashKansas City

Style clash: ball movement

Kansas City creates off the dribble (assists on 46.2% of its baskets); E Illinois allows assists on 58.0% of opponents' baskets (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 52.0% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.65 vs 0.65).

E Illinois has the ball

OffenseKansas City allowsvs D1 avg

45.7% #353

56.3% #348

-1.0 pt/100

18.6% #303

16.4% #192

-1.0 pt/100

28.2% #256

35.9% #353

+0.7 pt/100

33.5% #224

31.4% #94

-0.4 pt/100

74.4% #107

—

+0.2 pt/100

E Illinois net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -1.4 pts/100

Kansas City has the ball

OffenseE Illinois allowsvs D1 avg

45.7% #352

50.8% #146

-4.9 pt/100

18.2% #281

19.3% #39

-3.0 pt/100

26.4% #314

35.2% #343

-0.3 pt/100

29.2% #330

35.3% #187

-0.3 pt/100

66.2% #352

—

-0.5 pt/100

Kansas City net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -9.1 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

E Illinoisoffense vsKansas Citydefense

Share of shots by zone

E Illinois shoots

39.9

7.2

23.4

29.5

Kansas City allows

43.0

5.0

13.9

38.2

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	53.1%#339	63.1%#326	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	31.8%#334	39.7%#185	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	33.5%#323	40.9%#273	38.0%
Three	31.7%#292	37.6%#350	33.7%

Kansas Cityoffense vsE Illinoisdefense

Share of shots by zone

Kansas City shoots

34.3

9.1

19.7

37.0

E Illinois allows

39.2

5.2

14.1

41.5

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	53.7%#322	60.7%#257	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	36.3%#263	37.0%#111	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	36.1%#260	33.5%#37	38.0%
Three	28.4%#360	31.7%#50	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

E Illinois

−2.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#271 of 365

Off reb %

28.2%

#256

Def reb %

64.8%

#343

Turnover %

18.6%

#303

Forced TO %

19.3%

#39

FT rate

33.5%

#224

FT allowed

35.3%

#187

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.7

Defensive rebounding−1.5

Ball security−1.2

Forcing turnovers+1.8

Foul shots drawn−0.4

Foul shots allowed0.0

Kansas City

−4.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#344 of 365

Off reb %

26.4%

#314

Def reb %

64.1%

#353

Turnover %

18.2%

#281

Forced TO %

16.4%

#192

FT rate

29.2%

#330

FT allowed

31.4%

#94

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.3

Defensive rebounding−1.7

Ball security−1.0

Forcing turnovers−0.2

Foul shots drawn−1.5

Foul shots allowed+1.0

E Illinois has more extra scoring chances per game: −2.0 (#271 of 365) to Kansas City’s −4.7 (#344).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

E Illinois2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted E Illinois's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
40	Kooper Jacobi	F	Sr	6'7"	33-32	33.3	11.1	6.4	1.8	1.2	44.8%	24.0%	3.0	52.2%	23.9%
3	Meechie White	G	Jr	6'1"	33-33	30.4	10.5	3.7	3.1	1.8	49.8%	38.0%	2.8	85.7%	22.2%
5	Zion Fruster	G	Sr	6'2"	30-22	31.7	14.5	3.2	2.3	1.9	45.1%	30.3%	3.3	81.4%	31.3%
24	Terry McMorris	F	So	6'7"	33-24	26.1	7.6	5.8	1.5	1.6	46.1%	16.7%	0.4	75.7%	19.9%
10	Preston Turner	G	Jr	6'6"	31-9	20.8	7.7	1.7	0.9	1.5	59.5%	44.8%	3.1	81.5%	21.7%
13	Nazareth Fisher	F	Sr	6'10"	29-26	15.2	4.1	4.1	0.4	1.1	55.3%	—	0.0	68.4%	18.2%
1	Markus Blackwell	G	Fr	6'2"	23-0	16.6	4.7	1.1	0.9	1.0	47.4%	43.6%	1.7	77.8%	20.2%
4	Andre Washington	G	Sr	5'11"	14-12	24.1	10.5	1.9	1.1	1.0	46.7%	28.6%	3.5	70.0%	29.0%
7	Prince Johnson	F	Jr	6'8"	31-2	10.8	2.0	2.4	0.1	0.2	48.8%	—	0.0	68.8%	11.0%
11	Malik Olafioye	G	So	6'2"	20-2	16.4	3.9	1.9	1.3	1.5	39.6%	15.0%	1.0	64.0%	21.5%
15	Andrew Austin	F	So	6'7"	24-3	11.4	2.4	0.8	0.9	0.6	41.7%	21.7%	1.9	61.5%	17.6%
2	JT Elder	G	Jr	6'7"	1-0	17.0	8.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	66.7%	50.0%	4.0	—	24.6%
6	Kyle Layton	G	Jr	6'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
23	Shane Sims	G	Fr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Kansas City2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
2	CJ Evans	G	Jr	5'11"	30-30	30.4	11.6	2.5	3.8	2.8	43.4%	22.4%	1.6	70.9%	27.6%
0	Karmello Branch	G	Jr	6'4"	28-26	29.7	12.1	2.6	1.5	1.5	47.1%	32.7%	7.3	84.5%	25.3%
33	Jerome Palm	F	Sr	6'10"	31-27	26.0	7.8	6.1	1.3	1.2	48.9%	21.7%	0.7	44.4%	19.9%
7	Kasheem Grady II	G	Sr	6'5"	30-11	25.7	10.0	3.2	1.2	1.5	47.3%	29.5%	4.3	80.8%	24.3%
4	Chris Dockery	G	Jr	6'6"	29-20	22.2	7.2	6.0	0.9	1.4	54.8%	32.1%	1.0	56.7%	19.8%
23	Addarin Scott	F	Sr	6'8"	29-5	12.5	3.8	2.8	0.5	0.8	48.4%	0.0%	0.1	57.9%	20.3%
3	Jamaria Clark	G	Jr	6'2"	27-1	11.9	2.8	0.5	0.9	0.6	35.9%	21.3%	1.7	95.0%	18.1%
8	Trey Booker-Lowery	G	Jr	6'7"	25-1	10.5	4.6	1.8	0.3	0.8	44.2%	32.3%	1.2	53.6%	31.1%
21	Babacar Mbengue	F	So	7'0"	25-1	8.0	1.2	1.5	0.3	0.4	48.0%	—	0.0	26.3%	12.8%
11	Kernan Bundy	G	Sr	6'2"	6-1	13.0	3.0	1.2	1.2	1.2	27.5%	23.1%	2.2	77.8%	21.5%
13	D'Andre Harrison	F	Fr	6'6"	6-1	12.3	2.8	2.0	0.2	0.5	42.9%	0.0%	0.2	62.5%	15.2%
5	Cory Curtis Jr.	G	Sr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
10	Jason Hilliard	F	Jr	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
6	Max Sims	G	Jr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

E Illinois2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted E Illinois's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
40	Kooper Jacobi	F	Sr	6'7"	33-32	33.3	11.1	6.4	1.8	1.2	44.8%	24.0%	3.0	52.2%	23.9%
3	Meechie White	G	Jr	6'1"	33-33	30.4	10.5	3.7	3.1	1.8	49.8%	38.0%	2.8	85.7%	22.2%
5	Zion Fruster	G	Sr	6'2"	30-22	31.7	14.5	3.2	2.3	1.9	45.1%	30.3%	3.3	81.4%	31.3%
24	Terry McMorris	F	So	6'7"	33-24	26.1	7.6	5.8	1.5	1.6	46.1%	16.7%	0.4	75.7%	19.9%
10	Preston Turner	G	Jr	6'6"	31-9	20.8	7.7	1.7	0.9	1.5	59.5%	44.8%	3.1	81.5%	21.7%
13	Nazareth Fisher	F	Sr	6'10"	29-26	15.2	4.1	4.1	0.4	1.1	55.3%	—	0.0	68.4%	18.2%
1	Markus Blackwell	G	Fr	6'2"	23-0	16.6	4.7	1.1	0.9	1.0	47.4%	43.6%	1.7	77.8%	20.2%
4	Andre Washington	G	Sr	5'11"	14-12	24.1	10.5	1.9	1.1	1.0	46.7%	28.6%	3.5	70.0%	29.0%
7	Prince Johnson	F	Jr	6'8"	31-2	10.8	2.0	2.4	0.1	0.2	48.8%	—	0.0	68.8%	11.0%
11	Malik Olafioye	G	So	6'2"	20-2	16.4	3.9	1.9	1.3	1.5	39.6%	15.0%	1.0	64.0%	21.5%
15	Andrew Austin	F	So	6'7"	24-3	11.4	2.4	0.8	0.9	0.6	41.7%	21.7%	1.9	61.5%	17.6%
2	JT Elder	G	Jr	6'7"	1-0	17.0	8.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	66.7%	50.0%	4.0	—	24.6%
6	Kyle Layton	G	Jr	6'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
23	Shane Sims	G	Fr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

E Illinois

Against the spread

Season

16-14

Home

5-7

Road

9-7

Last 10

6-4

avg cover +0.2

Covered 2 straightCovered 6 of 8 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

15-15

Home

7-5

Road

6-10

Last 10

6-4

avg vs total +2.6

Over 2 straightOver in 4 of 8 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 5	UT MartinAdjEM #182	N	L 63–66	+8.0	W+5.0	126.0	O129	101.8	106.7	61.9
Mar 4	SIUEAdjEM #229	N	W 77–71 OT	+4.5	W+10.5	128.0	O148	111.5	102.8	69.0
Feb 28	SIUEAdjEM #229	A	L 50–77	+6.0	L−21.0	130.0	U127	83.0	127.9	60.2
Feb 26	LindenwoodAdjEM #244	A	W 71–67	+7.5	W+11.5	144.0	U138	102.7	96.9	69.2
Feb 21	S IndianaAdjEM #333	H	L 68–70	−4.5	L−6.5	136.0	O138	103.9	106.9	65.5
Feb 19	Morehead StAdjEM #266	H	L 70–73	+1.0	L−2.0	136.5	O143	105.5	110.0	66.3
Feb 14	Little RockAdjEM #300	H	W 78–72	+1.5	W+7.5	135.5	O150	117.5	108.4	66.4
Feb 10	W IllinoisAdjEM #362	A	L 70–79	−4.5	L−13.5	133.0	O149	97.2	109.7	72.0
Feb 7	Tennessee TechAdjEM #298	A	W 60–54	+4.5	W+10.5	140.5	U114	93.0	83.7	64.5
Feb 5	Tennessee StAdjEM #155	A	L 68–77	+9.5	W+0.5	145.5	U145	98.6	111.6	69.0

Kansas City

Against the spread

Season

5-23

Home

1-10

Road

4-12

Last 10

0-10

avg cover −11.4

Missed the spread 15 straightCovered 0 of 10 as an underdogCovered 0 of 4 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

16-12

Home

6-5

Road

10-6

Last 10

6-4

avg vs total −2.1

Under in the last gameOver in 6 of 10 as an underdogOver in 3 of 4 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 4	Oral RobertsAdjEM #314	N	L 62–84	+8.5	L−13.5	149.0	U146	88.9	120.5	69.7
Feb 28	Oral RobertsAdjEM #314	H	L 70–94	+3.5	L−20.5	149.5	O164	95.1	127.7	73.6
Feb 26	S Dakota StAdjEM #197	H	L 59–73	+12.0	L−2.0	151.0	U132	92.0	113.8	64.1
Feb 21	N Dakota StAdjEM #90	A	L 59–95	+19.5	L−16.5	147.5	O154	76.4	123.0	77.2
Feb 19	North DakotaAdjEM #291	A	L 70–85	+9.5	L−5.5	150.5	O155	90.7	110.2	77.1
Feb 14	St ThomasAdjEM #84	H	L 64–104	+13.0	L−27.0	153.5	O168	87.9	142.9	72.8
Feb 12	Oral RobertsAdjEM #314	A	L 60–69	+6.0	L−3.0	149.5	U129	92.2	106.0	65.1
Feb 4	South DakotaAdjEM #292	H	L 75–82 OT	+2.0	L−5.0	156.0	O157	93.3	102.0	80.4
Feb 1	St ThomasAdjEM #84	A	L 64–99	+18.5	L−16.5	150.0	O163	86.5	133.8	74.0
Jan 28	DenverAdjEM #243	H	L 61–69	+3.5	L−4.5	163.0	U130	90.6	102.5	67.3

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

E IllinoisKansas City

Efficiency

100.7

97.7

109.7

114.1

67.2

69.9

—

Shooting

45.7%

44.9%

47.6%

31.7%

28.4%

74.4%

66.2%

33.5%

29.2%

Ball control & glass

18.6%

18.2%

19.3%

16.4%

28.2%

26.4%

35.2%

35.9%

9.5%

10.9%

11.7%

9.4%

Style

29.9%

36.8%

44.3%

46.9%

18.7%

14.5%

48.7%

46.2%

32.6%

29.7%

Roster

3.09

3.32

6'4.6"

6'5"

—

84.5%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

E Illinois

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted E Illinois's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Kansas City

Returning minutes: 84.5%Returning production: 83.6%

Lost

Jayson Petty 31.1 mpg, 11.1 ppg · transferred to C Michigan

Added

Cory Curtis Jr. no D1 minutes last season
Max Sims no D1 minutes last season
Jason Hilliard no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 84% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.