CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceFinneran Pavilion, Villanova, PA

FDU

Efficiency #332

2025-26: 11-21 · 8-11 conf

Villanova

Efficiency #40

2025-26: 24-9 · 15-6 conf

Wed, Dec 9 · TBD

62.0

win 7%

Projected

79.4

win 93%

No line posted yet.

Model: VILL −17.4 · total 141.5 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Villanova 66.8, FDU 66.2 → 64.7 possessions

−7.9

Villanova offense vs FDU defense

+7.4

FDU offense vs Villanova defense

−6.3

Projected total

141.5

Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Villanova offense vs FDU defense

+7.4

FDU offense vs Villanova defense

+6.3

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.7

Villanova by 17.4

17.4

FDU side ◂▸ Villanova side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 141.4 against a projected 141.5. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Villanova.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 64.7, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Villanova is the faster team (66.5, #269 of 365) and FDU the slower (64.1, #352). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

64.7

per team, 40 min

Projected total

141.5

model

Projected team totals

62.0 / 79.4

FDU / Villanova

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

66.2#337

FDU

66.8#302

Villanova

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageVillanova

Where Villanova scores: shooting

Villanova shoots an effective 53.8% (#74); FDU allows 55.2% (#336). Expect about 54.7%, 3.4 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +4.9 points per 100 possessions.

Pace

Half-court grind

Villanova averages 66.5 possessions per 40, FDU 64.1. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 64 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

AdvantageFDU

Where FDU struggles: shooting

FDU shoots an effective 47.1% (#333); Villanova allows 51.4% (#181). Expect about 49.0%, 2.3 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.3 points per 100 possessions.

TurnoversFDU

FDU turns it over

Projected turnover rate of 18.7% is worth roughly -2.4 points per 100 possessions against FDU's offense.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (FDU, FDU's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect FDU at about 42.3% of its shots from three, Villanova about 45.2%.

TurnoversVillanova

Villanova protects the ball

Projected turnover rate of 15.3% is worth roughly +1.8 points per 100 possessions for Villanova's offense.

FDU has the ball

OffenseVillanova allowsvs D1 avg

47.1% #333

51.4% #181

-3.3 pt/100

18.1% #280

18.6% #69

-2.4 pt/100

32.0% #125

31.8% #246

+1.1 pt/100

32.8% #240

30.0% #59

-0.5 pt/100

70.1% #272

—

-0.2 pt/100

FDU net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -5.3 pts/100

Villanova has the ball

OffenseFDU allowsvs D1 avg

53.8% #74

55.2% #336

+4.9 pt/100

15.0% #66

16.1% #216

+1.8 pt/100

32.2% #118

27.3% #46

-0.1 pt/100

30.9% #284

36.3% #217

-0.2 pt/100

68.9% #302

—

-0.3 pt/100

Villanova net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +6.1 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

FDUoffense vsVillanovadefense

Share of shots by zone

FDU shoots

35.6

5.8

14.0

44.6

Villanova allows

37.3

6.9

19.3

36.4

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	57.1%#236	60.9%#267	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	37.3%#239	38.8%#155	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	32.5%#337	40.0%#243	38.0%
Three	30.3%#339	33.4%#148	33.7%

Villanovaoffense vsFDUdefense

Share of shots by zone

Villanova shoots

34.9

6.0

13.6

45.6

FDU allows

35.4

6.8

17.0

40.7

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	61.6%#81	60.0%#224	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	43.5%#91	38.5%#148	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	35.4%#280	43.3%#331	38.0%
Three	35.7%#77	37.8%#354	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

FDU

−0.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#205 of 365

Off reb %

32.0%

#125

Def reb %

72.7%

#46

Turnover %

18.1%

#280

Forced TO %

16.1%

#216

FT rate

32.8%

#240

FT allowed

36.3%

#217

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.5

Defensive rebounding+1.1

Ball security−0.9

Forcing turnovers−0.4

Foul shots drawn−0.6

Foul shots allowed−0.3

Villanova

+3.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#53 of 365

Off reb %

32.2%

#118

Def reb %

68.2%

#246

Turnover %

15.0%

#66

Forced TO %

18.6%

#69

FT rate

30.9%

#284

FT allowed

30.0%

#59

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.6

Defensive rebounding−0.4

Ball security+1.2

Forcing turnovers+1.3

Foul shots drawn−1.0

Foul shots allowed+1.3

Villanova has more extra scoring chances per game: +3.0 (#53 of 365) to FDU’s −0.6 (#205).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

FDU2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted FDU's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
0	Joey Niesman	G	Sr	6'2"	32-28	33.9	12.3	3.8	3.2	1.9	50.3%	34.3%	5.4	74.1%	24.8%
2	Taeshaud Jackson	F	Sr	6'6"	32-32	29.6	10.3	8.4	1.6	1.8	48.6%	21.6%	1.6	76.2%	23.9%
7	Eric Parnell	G	Sr	6'3"	32-31	25.7	10.7	2.2	0.7	0.5	49.8%	33.1%	7.6	81.8%	26.2%
22	Cyril Martynov	C	Sr	7'0"	32-32	25.6	8.1	5.4	2.3	1.9	53.9%	14.3%	0.2	53.6%	22.8%
35	David Jevtic	G	Fr	6'8"	31-10	20.3	6.6	3.4	1.2	1.3	48.0%	32.6%	3.0	66.0%	24.0%
55	Arthur Cox	F	Sr	6'8"	29-1	20.1	8.8	3.7	1.3	1.6	48.9%	29.2%	2.2	78.0%	29.3%
3	Raysean Johnson	G	So	6'1"	31-17	17.4	4.6	1.8	0.7	0.9	43.4%	27.6%	1.9	67.9%	20.1%
8	Noah Melson	G	Jr	6'6"	25-6	17.3	6.0	1.6	0.5	0.6	45.6%	32.7%	3.9	53.8%	24.7%
24	Ras Elijah Godbolt	G	Fr	6'0"	30-2	11.7	1.3	0.8	0.9	0.3	30.2%	21.1%	0.6	86.7%	10.5%
15	Josiah Francis	G	So	6'8"	14-0	6.9	1.4	2.1	0.0	0.6	31.8%	18.2%	0.8	83.3%	20.7%
9	Sebastian Haubro	F	Fr	6'10"	23-0	3.7	0.6	0.9	0.2	0.2	40.0%	—	0.0	90.0%	10.7%
5	Chid Ekwommadu	G	So	6'6"	2-0	8.0	0.0	0.5	0.0	1.0	0.0%	0.0%	1.0	—	14.2%
11	Tyler McQuaid	G	Fr	6'0"	7-0	1.6	0.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.3	100.0%	16.1%
21	Cole Alexander	F	Sr	6'7"	5-1	1.2	0.6	0.6	0.0	0.0	50.0%	0.0%	0.2	50.0%	30.3%
30	Andrew Canda	G	So	6'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
1	Kody Frey	G	Fr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Villanova2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
4	Tyler Perkins	G	Jr	6'4"	33-33	29.8	13.7	5.4	1.6	0.8	53.2%	36.9%	5.4	74.5%	26.3%
2	Bryce Lindsay	G	So	6'3"	33-31	28.5	12.3	2.1	2.1	1.2	49.6%	35.6%	6.6	77.1%	27.1%
33	Matt Hodge	F	Fr	6'8"	29-29	27.6	9.2	3.6	0.7	0.7	57.2%	36.8%	4.7	65.2%	18.9%
7	Malachi Palmer	G	So	6'6"	33-4	18.3	4.6	1.7	0.6	0.5	58.6%	35.9%	2.4	76.2%	14.0%
17	Braden Pierce	C	So	7'0"	30-1	6.5	1.2	0.9	0.5	0.3	66.7%	—	0.0	60.0%	11.0%
0	Chris Jeffrey	G	Fr	6'3"	22-0	8.3	3.0	1.0	1.0	0.2	54.3%	35.7%	0.6	80.0%	20.2%
6	Tafara Gapare	F	Sr	6'9"	9-0	16.3	2.9	2.9	0.4	0.7	31.5%	21.4%	1.6	81.8%	15.8%
1	Zion Stanford	G	Jr	6'6"	10-0	5.0	1.3	0.5	0.4	0.7	50.0%	0.0%	0.3	75.0%	23.4%
14	Wade Chiddick	G	Sr	6'4"	1-0	3.0	3.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	75.0%	38.5%
15	Malcolm Flaggs	G	So	6'6"	1-0	2.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0%	—	0.0	—	30.2%
21	Nico Onyekwere	C	Fr	7'1"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

FDU2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted FDU's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
0	Joey Niesman	G	Sr	6'2"	32-28	33.9	12.3	3.8	3.2	1.9	50.3%	34.3%	5.4	74.1%	24.8%
2	Taeshaud Jackson	F	Sr	6'6"	32-32	29.6	10.3	8.4	1.6	1.8	48.6%	21.6%	1.6	76.2%	23.9%
7	Eric Parnell	G	Sr	6'3"	32-31	25.7	10.7	2.2	0.7	0.5	49.8%	33.1%	7.6	81.8%	26.2%
22	Cyril Martynov	C	Sr	7'0"	32-32	25.6	8.1	5.4	2.3	1.9	53.9%	14.3%	0.2	53.6%	22.8%
35	David Jevtic	G	Fr	6'8"	31-10	20.3	6.6	3.4	1.2	1.3	48.0%	32.6%	3.0	66.0%	24.0%
55	Arthur Cox	F	Sr	6'8"	29-1	20.1	8.8	3.7	1.3	1.6	48.9%	29.2%	2.2	78.0%	29.3%
3	Raysean Johnson	G	So	6'1"	31-17	17.4	4.6	1.8	0.7	0.9	43.4%	27.6%	1.9	67.9%	20.1%
8	Noah Melson	G	Jr	6'6"	25-6	17.3	6.0	1.6	0.5	0.6	45.6%	32.7%	3.9	53.8%	24.7%
24	Ras Elijah Godbolt	G	Fr	6'0"	30-2	11.7	1.3	0.8	0.9	0.3	30.2%	21.1%	0.6	86.7%	10.5%
15	Josiah Francis	G	So	6'8"	14-0	6.9	1.4	2.1	0.0	0.6	31.8%	18.2%	0.8	83.3%	20.7%
9	Sebastian Haubro	F	Fr	6'10"	23-0	3.7	0.6	0.9	0.2	0.2	40.0%	—	0.0	90.0%	10.7%
5	Chid Ekwommadu	G	So	6'6"	2-0	8.0	0.0	0.5	0.0	1.0	0.0%	0.0%	1.0	—	14.2%
11	Tyler McQuaid	G	Fr	6'0"	7-0	1.6	0.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.3	100.0%	16.1%
21	Cole Alexander	F	Sr	6'7"	5-1	1.2	0.6	0.6	0.0	0.0	50.0%	0.0%	0.2	50.0%	30.3%
30	Andrew Canda	G	So	6'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
1	Kody Frey	G	Fr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

FDU

Against the spread

Season

9-19-1

Home

4-6-1

Road

5-13

Last 10

2-7-1

avg cover −2.7

Missed the spread 6 straightCovered 2 of 6 as a favorite, 1 pushCovered 0 of 4 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

10-19

Home

4-7

Road

6-12

Last 10

3-7

avg vs total −2.9

Under 3 straightOver in 3 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 0 of 4 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 4	MercyhurstAdjEM #261	A	L 61–70	+4.0	L−5.0	132.5	U131	94.2	108.0	64.8
Feb 28	Long IslandAdjEM #195	A	L 60–74	+9.0	L−5.0	137.5	U134	95.3	117.6	62.9
Feb 26	Le MoyneAdjEM #270	A	L 59–76	+4.5	L−12.5	139.5	U135	92.2	118.7	64.0
Feb 21	New HavenAdjEM #326	H	L 77–84	−2.5	L−9.5	124.5	O161	122.6	133.7	62.8
Feb 19	Chicago StAdjEM #342	A	W 60–59	−2.0	L−1.0	132.0	U119	113.5	111.6	52.9
Feb 14	C ConnecticutAdjEM #277	H	L 57–63	+1.0	L−5.0	134.0	U120	100.9	111.5	56.5
Feb 12	Saint Francis Red Wolves	H	W 66–59	−7.0	P0.0	142.5	U125	100.9	90.2	65.4
Feb 7	MercyhurstAdjEM #261	H	W 55–52	−2.5	W+0.5	131.0	U107	101.4	95.9	54.3
Feb 5	StonehillAdjEM #320	H	W 74–58	−1.0	W+15.0	131.0	O132	116.1	91.0	63.7
Jan 31	WagnerAdjEM #285	A	L 72–75 OT	−1.5	L−4.5	135.5	O147	105.0	109.4	68.6

Villanova

Against the spread

Season

18-14-1

Home

8-9

Road

8-3-1

Last 10

2-8

avg cover −4.4

Missed the spread 3 straightCovered 2 of 7 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

20-13

Home

11-6

Road

7-5

Last 10

7-3

avg vs total +6.5

Over 3 straightOver in 6 of 7 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 20	#9Utah StateAdjEM #24	N	L 76–86	+2.0	L−8.0	147.5	O162	111.5	126.2	68.1
Mar 12	GeorgetownAdjEM #95	N	L 64–78	−6.5	L−20.5	141.0	O142	99.4	121.1	64.4
Mar 7	XavierAdjEM #129	H	W 91–78	−13.5	L−0.5	154.0	O169	128.2	109.9	71.0
Mar 4	DePaulAdjEM #113	A	W 76–57	−2.0	W+17.0	136.5	U133	108.2	81.1	70.3
Feb 28	#15St John'sAdjEM #16	A	L 57–89	+7.5	L−24.5	148.0	U146	78.6	122.8	72.5
Feb 25	ButlerAdjEM #87	H	W 82–73	−10.5	L−1.5	147.0	O155	116.7	103.9	70.2
Feb 21	#5UConnAdjEM #10	H	L 63–73	+3.0	L−7.0	141.0	U136	100.1	116.0	62.9
Feb 17	XavierAdjEM #129	A	W 92–89 OT	−4.0	L−1.0	153.5	O181	116.7	112.9	78.8
Feb 14	CreightonAdjEM #92	A	W 80–69	−2.5	W+8.5	146.0	O149	115.3	99.5	69.4
Feb 10	MarquetteAdjEM #100	H	W 77–74	−9.5	L−6.5	145.0	O151	109.8	105.5	70.1

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

FDUVillanova

Efficiency

103.2

115.0

113.4

104.1

66.2

66.8

—

Shooting

47.1%

53.8%

48.6%

54.0%

30.3%

35.7%

70.1%

68.9%

32.8%

30.9%

Ball control & glass

18.1%

15.0%

16.1%

18.6%

32.0%

32.2%

27.3%

31.8%

9.8%

7.6%

9.4%

7.3%

Style

45.2%

45.7%

40.1%

40.3%

5.7%

11.7%

51.0%

56.8%

32.0%

27.3%

Roster

3.23

2.09

6'5.4"

6'5.5"

—

58.6%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

FDU

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted FDU's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Villanova

Returning minutes: 58.6%Returning production: 51.4%

Lost

Acaden Lewis 30.5 mpg, 12.2 ppg · transferred to Miami
Duke Brennan 30.1 mpg, 12.1 ppg · transferred to Oklahoma
Devin Askew 23.1 mpg, 9.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Nico Onyekwere no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 59% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5 (2 transferred).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.