CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceMarriott Center, Provo, UT
Utah State
Efficiency #24
2025-26: 29-7 · 18-5 conf
@
BYU
Efficiency #26
2025-26: 23-12 · 11-10 conf
Wed, Dec 9 · TBD
77.5
win 37%
Projected
81.3
win 63%
No line posted yet.
Model: BYU −3.8 · total 158.8 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: BYU 69.9, Utah State 68.3 → 69.9 possessions
+3.4
BYU offense vs Utah State defense
+3.5
Utah State offense vs BYU defense
+3.7
Projected total
158.8
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
BYU offense vs Utah State defense
+3.5
Utah State offense vs BYU defense
−3.7
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.0
BYU by 3.8
3.8
Utah State side ◂▸ BYU side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help BYU.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 69.9, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, BYU is the faster team (70.4, #80 of 365) and Utah State the slower (68.2, #191). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
69.9
per team, 40 min
Projected total
158.8
model
Projected team totals
77.5 / 81.3
Utah State / BYU
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
68.3#178
Utah State
69.9#57
BYU
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageUtah State
Where Utah State scores: shooting
Utah State shoots an effective 56.3% (#18); BYU allows 51.2% (#174). Expect about 54.1%, 2.9 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +4.1 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageBYU
Where BYU scores: the offensive glass
BYU rebounds 34.3% of its own misses (#61); Utah State lets opponents grab 32.8% of their own misses (#290). Expect about 34.3%, 3.9 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.4 points per 100 possessions.
TurnoversBYU
BYU turns it over
Projected turnover rate of 18.1% is worth roughly -1.7 points per 100 possessions against BYU's offense.
DefenseUtah State
Utah State's ball-hawking
Utah State ranks #18 nationally in steal rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 11.2% of BYU's possessions to end in a steal against this defense.
ClashBYU
Strength vs strength: 2-point shooting
BYU (#39 in 2-point shooting) against Utah State (#45 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 52.5%. Historically BYU's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.61 vs 0.55).
Utah State has the ball
OffenseBYU allowsvs D1 avg
56.3% #18
51.2% #174
+4.1 pt/100
15.1% #70
16.4% #196
+1.5 pt/100
32.7% #97
29.6% #145
+0.8 pt/100
38.8% #83
28.9% #42
-0.2 pt/100
71.0% #239
—
-0.1 pt/100
Utah State net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +6.0 pts/100
BYU has the ball
OffenseUtah State allowsvs D1 avg
54.4% #54
49.7% #87
+1.4 pt/100
15.2% #80
20.3% #18
-1.7 pt/100
34.3% #61
32.8% #290
+2.4 pt/100
34.4% #198
39.2% #292
+0.3 pt/100
74.7% #94
—
+0.2 pt/100
BYU net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +2.6 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersUtah Stateoffense vsBYUdefense
Share of shots by zone
Utah State shoots
45.1
4.7
10.4
39.8
BYU allows
30.4
12.2
18.0
39.3
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 64.3%#31 | 61.2%#274 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 45.2%#61 | 35.4%#70 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 41.6%#65 | 41.0%#276 | 38.0% |
| Three | 34.3%#155 | 35.3%#269 | 33.7% |
BYUoffense vsUtah Statedefense
Share of shots by zone
BYU shoots
32.8
12.1
16.0
39.1
Utah State allows
38.4
5.3
15.9
40.4
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 65.4%#17 | 55.1%#63 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 40.5%#164 | 38.5%#145 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 44.0%#26 | 33.2%#33 | 38.0% |
| Three | 34.5%#145 | 34.5%#222 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersUtah State
+3.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#43 of 365
Off reb %
32.7%
#97
Def reb %
67.2%
#290
Turnover %
15.1%
#70
Forced TO %
20.3%
#18
FT rate
38.8%
#83
FT allowed
39.2%
#292
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.8
Defensive rebounding−0.7
Ball security+1.2
Forcing turnovers+2.5
Foul shots drawn+1.0
Foul shots allowed−1.0
BYU
+3.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#38 of 365
Off reb %
34.3%
#61
Def reb %
70.4%
#145
Turnover %
15.2%
#80
Forced TO %
16.4%
#196
FT rate
34.4%
#198
FT allowed
28.9%
#42
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.3
Defensive rebounding+0.3
Ball security+1.1
Forcing turnovers−0.2
Foul shots drawn−0.2
Foul shots allowed+1.6
BYU has more extra scoring chances per game: +3.9 (#38 of 365) to Utah State’s +3.6 (#43).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Utah State2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Mason Falslev | G | Jr | 6'4" | 36-36 | 32.0 | 16.0 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 57.2% | 39.0% | 3.4 | 76.4% | 27.0% | |
| 2 | MJ Collins Jr. | G | Sr | 6'4" | 36-36 | 30.8 | 17.5 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 58.2% | 36.1% | 6.3 | 81.0% | 28.8% | |
| 22 | Karson Templin | F | Jr | 6'9" | 36-8 | 19.1 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 55.0% | 32.8% | 1.8 | 65.5% | 26.4% | |
| 35 | Adlan Elamin | F | Fr | 6'9" | 35-28 | 19.5 | 6.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 52.1% | 30.2% | 2.7 | 83.0% | 20.5% | |
| 11 | Garry Clark | F | Sr | 6'9" | 36-1 | 16.6 | 6.9 | 4.3 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 71.6% | 14.3% | 0.2 | 53.9% | 20.3% | |
| 1 | Elijah Perryman | G | Fr | 6'2" | 36-1 | 13.9 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 50.0% | 29.6% | 1.5 | 80.0% | 23.2% | |
| 32 | Zach Keller | F | Sr | 6'10" | 35-27 | 13.6 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 61.0% | 47.1% | 0.5 | 55.3% | 15.0% | |
| 3 | Tucker Anderson | F | Jr | 6'9" | 25-8 | 11.7 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 53.5% | 36.0% | 2.0 | 71.4% | 16.0% | |
| 5 | Jordy Barnes | G | So | 6'4" | 17-0 | 5.5 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 31.0% | 23.1% | 0.8 | 50.0% | 17.9% | |
| 20 | Luke Kearney | F | Jr | 6'7" | 12-0 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 47.4% | 26.7% | 1.3 | 100.0% | 26.0% | |
| 4 | Brayden Boe | G | Fr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 13 | David Iweze | F | Fr | 6'10" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 24 | Kingston Tosi | F | Fr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
BYU2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robert Wright III | G | So | 6'1" | 35-35 | 34.9 | 18.1 | 3.5 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 52.6% | 41.0% | 4.0 | 82.1% | 29.6% | |
| 7 | Khadim Mboup | F | Fr | 6'9" | 34-2 | 15.6 | 2.2 | 5.1 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 50.7% | 16.7% | 0.4 | 23.1% | 11.6% | |
| 5 | Mihailo Boskovic | F | Sr | 6'10" | 34-5 | 12.0 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 50.0% | 28.3% | 1.6 | 80.0% | 16.1% | |
| 6 | Aleksej Kostic | G | Fr | 6'4" | 27-5 | 12.0 | 4.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 52.4% | 36.7% | 3.3 | 87.5% | 22.5% | |
| 2 | Tyler Mrus | F | Jr | 6'7" | 26-0 | 10.0 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 45.8% | 29.8% | 1.8 | 90.9% | 12.7% | |
| 34 | Abdullah Ahmed | C | So | 6'10" | 20-1 | 12.2 | 1.3 | 2.6 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | 41.7% | 8.3% | |
| 24 | Dominique Diomande | F | Fr | 6'7" | 23-0 | 7.6 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 48.6% | 12.5% | 0.7 | 62.5% | 15.8% | |
| 25 | Dawson Baker | G | Sr | 6'4" | 6-2 | 20.0 | 7.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 59.7% | 47.4% | 3.2 | 88.9% | 19.2% | |
| 33 | Xavion Staton | C | Fr | 6'11" | 9-0 | 5.0 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 7.4% | |
| 51 | Jared McGregor | G | Sr | 6'3" | 7-0 | 1.1 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.7 | — | 42.4% | |
| 4 | Brody Kozlowski | F | So | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| — | KJ Perry | G | Fr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 12 | Nate Pickens | G | Sr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Utah State2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Mason Falslev | G | Jr | 6'4" | 36-36 | 32.0 | 16.0 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 57.2% | 39.0% | 3.4 | 76.4% | 27.0% | |
| 2 | MJ Collins Jr. | G | Sr | 6'4" | 36-36 | 30.8 | 17.5 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 58.2% | 36.1% | 6.3 | 81.0% | 28.8% | |
| 22 | Karson Templin | F | Jr | 6'9" | 36-8 | 19.1 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 55.0% | 32.8% | 1.8 | 65.5% | 26.4% | |
| 35 | Adlan Elamin | F | Fr | 6'9" | 35-28 | 19.5 | 6.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 52.1% | 30.2% | 2.7 | 83.0% | 20.5% | |
| 11 | Garry Clark | F | Sr | 6'9" | 36-1 | 16.6 | 6.9 | 4.3 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 71.6% | 14.3% | 0.2 | 53.9% | 20.3% | |
| 1 | Elijah Perryman | G | Fr | 6'2" | 36-1 | 13.9 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 50.0% | 29.6% | 1.5 | 80.0% | 23.2% | |
| 32 | Zach Keller | F | Sr | 6'10" | 35-27 | 13.6 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 61.0% | 47.1% | 0.5 | 55.3% | 15.0% | |
| 3 | Tucker Anderson | F | Jr | 6'9" | 25-8 | 11.7 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 53.5% | 36.0% | 2.0 | 71.4% | 16.0% | |
| 5 | Jordy Barnes | G | So | 6'4" | 17-0 | 5.5 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 31.0% | 23.1% | 0.8 | 50.0% | 17.9% | |
| 20 | Luke Kearney | F | Jr | 6'7" | 12-0 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 47.4% | 26.7% | 1.3 | 100.0% | 26.0% | |
| 4 | Brayden Boe | G | Fr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 13 | David Iweze | F | Fr | 6'10" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 24 | Kingston Tosi | F | Fr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Utah State
Against the spread
Season
15-19-1
Home
5-9
Road
4-8
Last 10
4-6
avg cover −3.5
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 9 as a favorite
Over / under
Season
20-15
Home
8-6
Road
7-5
Last 10
6-4
avg vs total +2.4
Under in the last gameOver in 6 of 9 as a favorite
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22 | #1Arizona | N | L 66–78 | +11.5 | L−0.5 | 154.0 | U144 | 102.5 | 121.2 | 64.4 |
| Mar 20 | #8Villanova | N | W 86–76 | −2.0 | W+8.0 | 147.5 | O162 | 126.2 | 111.5 | 68.1 |
| Mar 14 | San Diego St | N | W 73–62 | −2.5 | W+8.5 | 146.0 | U135 | 111.8 | 95.0 | 65.3 |
| Mar 13 | Nevada | N | W 79–66 | −6.5 | W+6.5 | 144.5 | O145 | 108.1 | 90.3 | 73.1 |
| Mar 12 | UNLV | N | W 80–60 | −8.5 | W+11.5 | 156.5 | U140 | 114.6 | 86.0 | 69.8 |
| Mar 7 | New Mexico | H | W 94–90 | −7.5 | L−3.5 | 156.5 | O184 | 135.8 | 130.0 | 69.2 |
| Mar 3 | UNLV | A | L 65–92 | −7.5 | L−34.5 | 156.5 | O157 | 92.5 | 130.9 | 70.3 |
| Feb 28 | Grand Canyon | H | W 74–69 | −9.5 | L−4.5 | 148.0 | U143 | 116.4 | 108.5 | 63.6 |
| Feb 25 | San Diego St | A | L 72–89 | −1.0 | L−18.0 | 147.0 | O161 | 103.5 | 128.0 | 69.5 |
| Feb 21 | Nevada | A | L 77–80 | −5.0 | L−8.0 | 148.0 | O157 | 114.2 | 118.7 | 67.4 |
BYU
Against the spread
Season
16-19
Home
8-9
Road
3-6
Last 10
6-4
avg cover −2.5
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 3 of 4 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
18-17
Home
9-8
Road
6-3
Last 10
4-6
avg vs total −0.9
Under 3 straightOver in 3 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 1 of 4 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19 | #11Texas | N | L 71–79 | −2.5 | L−10.5 | 158.0 | U150 | 106.0 | 118.0 | 67.0 |
| Mar 12 | #5Houston | N | L 66–73 | +9.5 | W+2.5 | 148.0 | U139 | 95.3 | 105.4 | 69.3 |
| Mar 11 | West Virginia | N | W 68–48 | −3.5 | W+16.5 | 141.0 | U116 | 108.5 | 76.6 | 62.6 |
| Mar 10 | Kansas St | N | W 105–91 | −11.0 | W+3.0 | 168.5 | O196 | 135.0 | 117.0 | 77.8 |
| Mar 7 | #10Texas Tech | H | W 82–76 | −3.0 | W+3.0 | 159.5 | U158 | 134.6 | 124.8 | 60.9 |
| Mar 3 | Cincinnati | A | L 68–90 | +1.5 | L−20.5 | 152.5 | O158 | 94.8 | 125.5 | 71.7 |
| Feb 28 | West Virginia | A | L 71–79 | −2.0 | L−10.0 | 141.0 | O150 | 112.3 | 124.9 | 63.2 |
| Feb 24 | UCF | H | L 84–97 | −13.5 | L−26.5 | 161.5 | O181 | 108.3 | 125.0 | 77.6 |
| Feb 21 | #6Iowa State | H | W 79–69 | +3.0 | W+13.0 | 155.0 | U148 | 118.3 | 103.4 | 66.8 |
| Feb 18 | #4Arizona | A | L 68–75 | +11.0 | W+4.0 | 163.5 | U143 | 102.8 | 113.4 | 66.2 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeUtah StateBYU
Efficiency
117.8
118.2
103.7
104.5
68.3
69.9
—
—
Shooting
56.3%
54.4%
59.6%
56.2%
34.3%
34.5%
71.0%
74.7%
38.8%
34.4%
Ball control & glass
15.1%
15.2%
20.3%
16.4%
32.7%
34.3%
32.8%
29.6%
8.0%
8.9%
9.8%
8.1%
Style
40.8%
39.8%
47.4%
45.4%
16.2%
15.6%
59.9%
45.0%
37.8%
26.2%
Roster
2.95
2.08
6'6.4"
6'5.3"
78.0%
47.4%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputUtah State
Returning minutes: 78.0%Returning production: 78.3%
Lost
- Drake Allen 24.8 mpg, 7.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Kolby King 19.3 mpg, 7.5 ppg · transferred to Auburn
Added
- Kingston Tosi no D1 minutes last season
- David Iweze no D1 minutes last season
- Brayden Boe no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 78% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
BYU
Returning minutes: 47.4%Returning production: 37.8%
Lost
- AJ Dybantsa 34.8 mpg, 25.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Kennard Davis Jr. 27.0 mpg, 7.7 ppg · transferred to Missouri
- Richie Saunders 22.3 mpg, 12.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Keba Keita 21.3 mpg, 5.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Brody Kozlowski no D1 minutes last season
- KJ Perry no D1 minutes last season
- Nate Pickens no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 47% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (1 transferred).
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.