CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceYuengling Center, Tampa, FL
Jacksonville
Efficiency #294
2025-26: 12-20 · 7-12 conf
@
South Florida
Efficiency #36
2025-26: 25-9 · 17-3 conf
Wed, Dec 9 · TBD
66.3
win 8%
Projected
82.8
win 92%
No line posted yet.
Model: USF −16.5 · total 149.2 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: South Florida 71.0, Jacksonville 65.8 → 68.5 possessions
+0.4
South Florida offense vs Jacksonville defense
+6.6
Jacksonville offense vs South Florida defense
−6.0
Projected total
149.2
Axis starts at 145 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
South Florida offense vs Jacksonville defense
+6.6
Jacksonville offense vs South Florida defense
+6.0
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.9
South Florida by 16.5
16.5
Jacksonville side ◂▸ South Florida side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help South Florida.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 68.5, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, South Florida is the faster team (73.0, #12 of 365) and Jacksonville the slower (65.2, #328). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
68.5
per team, 40 min
Projected total
149.2
model
Projected team totals
66.3 / 82.8
Jacksonville / South Florida
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
65.8#348
Jacksonville
71.0#15
South Florida
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetPace
Tempo tug-of-war
South Florida averages 73.0 possessions per 40, Jacksonville 65.2. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 69 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
AdvantageSouth Florida
Where South Florida scores: the offensive glass
South Florida rebounds 38.1% of its own misses (#7); Jacksonville lets opponents grab 29.1% of their own misses (#115). Expect about 35.2%, 4.8 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.9 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageJacksonville
Where Jacksonville struggles: shooting
Jacksonville shoots an effective 50.0% (#232); South Florida allows 48.8% (#58). Expect about 49.3%, 2.0 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.8 points per 100 possessions.
TurnoversSouth Florida
South Florida protects the ball
Projected turnover rate of 14.7% is worth roughly +2.6 points per 100 possessions for South Florida's offense.
TurnoversJacksonville
Jacksonville turns it over
Projected turnover rate of 18.6% is worth roughly -2.2 points per 100 possessions against Jacksonville's offense.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Jacksonville's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Jacksonville at about 37.9% of its shots from three, South Florida about 40.2%.
Jacksonville has the ball
OffenseSouth Florida allowsvs D1 avg
50.0% #232
48.8% #58
-2.8 pt/100
17.2% #223
19.1% #42
-2.2 pt/100
31.7% #137
31.9% #252
+1.0 pt/100
32.8% #242
39.1% #287
+0.2 pt/100
72.3% #198
—
-0.0 pt/100
Jacksonville net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -3.9 pts/100
South Florida has the ball
OffenseJacksonville allowsvs D1 avg
50.6% #209
54.8% #325
+2.0 pt/100
15.1% #74
15.0% #290
+2.6 pt/100
38.1% #7
29.1% #115
+2.9 pt/100
40.4% #55
42.7% #336
+0.9 pt/100
74.6% #101
—
+0.2 pt/100
South Florida net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +8.6 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersJacksonvilleoffense vsSouth Floridadefense
Share of shots by zone
Jacksonville shoots
41.3
5.4
16.2
37.0
South Florida allows
35.9
8.0
16.8
39.3
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 57.1%#235 | 54.7%#57 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 30.4%#346 | 34.5%#52 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 40.6%#89 | 34.8%#69 | 38.0% |
| Three | 31.7%#289 | 34.5%#218 | 33.7% |
South Floridaoffense vsJacksonvilledefense
Share of shots by zone
South Florida shoots
46.7
5.1
4.1
44.1
Jacksonville allows
46.3
7.1
12.1
34.5
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 55.0%#299 | 62.6%#312 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 37.8%#227 | 35.6%#79 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 25.0%#365 | 34.9%#74 | 38.0% |
| Three | 32.5%#255 | 36.3%#318 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersJacksonville
−3.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#307 of 365
Off reb %
31.7%
#137
Def reb %
70.9%
#115
Turnover %
17.2%
#223
Forced TO %
15.0%
#290
FT rate
32.8%
#242
FT allowed
42.7%
#336
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.4
Defensive rebounding+0.5
Ball security−0.3
Forcing turnovers−1.2
Foul shots drawn−0.6
Foul shots allowed−1.9
South Florida
+5.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#18 of 365
Off reb %
38.1%
#7
Def reb %
68.1%
#252
Turnover %
15.1%
#74
Forced TO %
19.1%
#42
FT rate
40.4%
#55
FT allowed
39.1%
#287
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+2.5
Defensive rebounding−0.4
Ball security+1.1
Forcing turnovers+1.7
Foul shots drawn+1.4
Foul shots allowed−1.0
South Florida has more extra scoring chances per game: +5.3 (#18 of 365) to Jacksonville’s −3.1 (#307).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Jacksonville2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Jacksonville's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Hayden Wood | G | Fr | 6'6" | 32-31 | 27.0 | 11.8 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 55.9% | 37.7% | 4.7 | 71.6% | 24.8% | |
| 2 | Jaylen Jones | G | Jr | 6'0" | 31-29 | 26.9 | 9.7 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 49.4% | 33.3% | 2.7 | 66.7% | 26.1% | |
| 34 | Evan Sterck | G | Fr | 6'1" | 32-23 | 24.7 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 47.6% | 30.6% | 3.1 | 78.8% | 19.6% | |
| 11 | Chris Lockett Jr. | G | So | 6'4" | 32-11 | 24.5 | 9.3 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 45.1% | 30.6% | 3.4 | 84.6% | 24.9% | |
| 31 | Jason Thirdkill Jr. | F | Sr | 6'7" | 32-24 | 22.6 | 8.0 | 5.4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 56.3% | 30.4% | 1.8 | 76.1% | 19.9% | |
| 33 | Donovan Rivers | F | Jr | 6'9" | 32-28 | 20.0 | 8.6 | 4.6 | 0.6 | 1.6 | 54.9% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 64.4% | 27.7% | |
| 1 | Chris Arias | G | So | 6'6" | 30-4 | 17.9 | 7.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 52.7% | 36.1% | 4.0 | 84.4% | 24.5% | |
| 22 | Charles Caporaso | C | So | 7'0" | 26-4 | 10.7 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 57.1% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 75.0% | 21.1% | |
| 14 | Allen Udemadu | F | Sr | 6'10" | 24-0 | 11.4 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 60.0% | — | 0.0 | 75.0% | 20.8% | |
| 23 | Enrico Borio | F | So | 6'8" | 21-5 | 12.1 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 46.6% | 27.7% | 2.2 | 53.8% | 18.1% | |
| 0 | Jaylen Jordon | F | Sr | 6'8" | 22-1 | 11.5 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 61.1% | — | 0.0 | 71.4% | 19.2% | |
| 9 | Michael Harper Jr. | G | Fr | 6'3" | 15-0 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 41.5% | 23.1% | 0.9 | 20.0% | 29.6% | |
| 10 | Simon Wheeler | G | Sr | 5'10" | 8-0 | 7.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 50.0% | 20.0% | 0.6 | 0.0% | 19.3% | |
| 4 | Anakin Brown | G | Fr | 6'3" | 3-0 | 9.7 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 16.7% | 16.7% | 2.0 | 66.7% | 18.9% | |
| 6 | Lamont Jackson | G | So | 6'0" | 4-0 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 41.7% | 25.0% | 1.0 | 100.0% | 27.8% | |
| 12 | Roman Loux | G | Fr | 6'0" | 4-0 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 75.0% | 0.0% | 0.3 | 0.0% | 21.2% | |
| 5 | Tito Deng | F | Jr | 6'11" | 1-0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 0.0% |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
South Florida2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Wes Enis | G | Jr | 6'2" | 32-29 | 34.0 | 16.4 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 51.1% | 35.2% | 9.5 | 81.4% | 27.1% | |
| 5 | Joseph Pinion | G | Sr | 6'5" | 34-34 | 30.2 | 14.6 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 52.2% | 37.8% | 8.6 | 78.7% | 27.2% | |
| 8 | Josh Omojafo | G | Sr | 6'5" | 34-32 | 27.2 | 11.3 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 50.2% | 29.7% | 2.2 | 78.2% | 21.5% | |
| 11 | CJ Brown | G | So | 6'2" | 34-34 | 26.6 | 10.9 | 3.9 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 40.7% | 24.2% | 1.9 | 72.7% | 27.4% | |
| 3 | Isaiah Jones | F | Sr | 6'7" | 34-1 | 15.8 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 53.0% | 31.4% | 2.5 | 82.9% | 14.6% | |
| 6 | Daimion Collins | F | Sr | 6'9" | 33-1 | 14.1 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 59.9% | 15.8% | 0.6 | 60.0% | 15.0% | |
| 21 | Adriel Nyorha | G | Fr | 6'5" | 26-2 | 11.0 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 44.8% | 32.3% | 1.2 | 67.9% | 25.3% | |
| 9 | Gavin Hightower | G | Fr | 6'1" | 26-0 | 10.2 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 53.5% | 20.0% | 0.2 | 67.4% | 25.5% | |
| 4 | Devin Haid | G | Sr | 6'5" | 23-0 | 10.0 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 47.7% | 31.4% | 1.5 | 93.3% | 18.5% | |
| 7 | Caleb Sanders | F | Fr | 6'6" | 10-2 | 8.2 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 52.8% | 33.3% | 0.9 | 66.7% | 19.4% | |
| 0 | Xavier Brown | G | Sr | 6'2" | 3-0 | 12.0 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 33.3% | 33.3% | 2.0 | 50.0% | 16.3% | |
| 15 | Onyx Nnani | F | Fr | 6'9" | 1-0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 0.0% | |
| 1 | De'Ante Green | F | Sr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Jacksonville2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Jacksonville's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Hayden Wood | G | Fr | 6'6" | 32-31 | 27.0 | 11.8 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 55.9% | 37.7% | 4.7 | 71.6% | 24.8% | |
| 2 | Jaylen Jones | G | Jr | 6'0" | 31-29 | 26.9 | 9.7 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 49.4% | 33.3% | 2.7 | 66.7% | 26.1% | |
| 34 | Evan Sterck | G | Fr | 6'1" | 32-23 | 24.7 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 47.6% | 30.6% | 3.1 | 78.8% | 19.6% | |
| 11 | Chris Lockett Jr. | G | So | 6'4" | 32-11 | 24.5 | 9.3 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 45.1% | 30.6% | 3.4 | 84.6% | 24.9% | |
| 31 | Jason Thirdkill Jr. | F | Sr | 6'7" | 32-24 | 22.6 | 8.0 | 5.4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 56.3% | 30.4% | 1.8 | 76.1% | 19.9% | |
| 33 | Donovan Rivers | F | Jr | 6'9" | 32-28 | 20.0 | 8.6 | 4.6 | 0.6 | 1.6 | 54.9% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 64.4% | 27.7% | |
| 1 | Chris Arias | G | So | 6'6" | 30-4 | 17.9 | 7.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 52.7% | 36.1% | 4.0 | 84.4% | 24.5% | |
| 22 | Charles Caporaso | C | So | 7'0" | 26-4 | 10.7 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 57.1% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 75.0% | 21.1% | |
| 14 | Allen Udemadu | F | Sr | 6'10" | 24-0 | 11.4 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 60.0% | — | 0.0 | 75.0% | 20.8% | |
| 23 | Enrico Borio | F | So | 6'8" | 21-5 | 12.1 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 46.6% | 27.7% | 2.2 | 53.8% | 18.1% | |
| 0 | Jaylen Jordon | F | Sr | 6'8" | 22-1 | 11.5 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 61.1% | — | 0.0 | 71.4% | 19.2% | |
| 9 | Michael Harper Jr. | G | Fr | 6'3" | 15-0 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 41.5% | 23.1% | 0.9 | 20.0% | 29.6% | |
| 10 | Simon Wheeler | G | Sr | 5'10" | 8-0 | 7.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 50.0% | 20.0% | 0.6 | 0.0% | 19.3% | |
| 4 | Anakin Brown | G | Fr | 6'3" | 3-0 | 9.7 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 16.7% | 16.7% | 2.0 | 66.7% | 18.9% | |
| 6 | Lamont Jackson | G | So | 6'0" | 4-0 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 41.7% | 25.0% | 1.0 | 100.0% | 27.8% | |
| 12 | Roman Loux | G | Fr | 6'0" | 4-0 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 75.0% | 0.0% | 0.3 | 0.0% | 21.2% | |
| 5 | Tito Deng | F | Jr | 6'11" | 1-0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 0.0% |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Jacksonville
Against the spread
Season
12-17-1
Home
4-6
Road
7-9-1
Last 10
3-7
avg cover −1.9
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 1 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 4 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
12-18
Home
4-6
Road
7-10
Last 10
5-5
avg vs total +5.0
Over in the last gameOver in 2 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 3 of 4 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4 | Bellarmine | N | L 79–82 | +2.0 | L−1.0 | 146.5 | O161 | 123.8 | 128.6 | 63.8 |
| Feb 28 | North Florida | A | W 85–61 | −1.5 | W+22.5 | 150.0 | U146 | 123.1 | 88.3 | 69.1 |
| Feb 26 | Stetson | H | W 89–85 | −7.0 | L−3.0 | 140.0 | O174 | 132.3 | 126.3 | 67.3 |
| Feb 21 | Austin Peay | H | L 61–65 | +5.5 | W+1.5 | 142.5 | U126 | 101.0 | 107.6 | 60.4 |
| Feb 18 | FGCU | A | L 84–86 | +6.5 | W+4.5 | 136.0 | O170 | 127.6 | 130.6 | 65.8 |
| Feb 14 | North Florida | H | W 63–56 | −7.5 | L−0.5 | 153.0 | U119 | 108.2 | 96.1 | 58.3 |
| Feb 11 | Stetson | A | L 62–67 | −1.5 | L−6.5 | 138.5 | U129 | 99.0 | 107.0 | 62.6 |
| Feb 7 | West Georgia | A | L 73–87 | −1.0 | L−15.0 | 138.0 | O160 | 108.1 | 128.8 | 67.5 |
| Feb 5 | Queens | A | L 84–93 | +8.5 | L−0.5 | 147.5 | O177 | 119.0 | 131.8 | 70.6 |
| Jan 31 | FGCU | H | L 49–68 | −2.0 | L−21.0 | 137.5 | U117 | 74.2 | 103.0 | 66.0 |
South Florida
Against the spread
Season
18-14-1
Home
9-5
Road
7-5
Last 10
7-2-1
avg cover +5.6
Covered 7 of 9 as a favoriteCovered 4 of 4 with a line of 10+
Over / under
Season
15-18
Home
5-9
Road
7-5
Last 10
2-8
avg vs total −9.3
Over in the last gameOver in 1 of 9 as a favoriteOver in 0 of 4 with a line of 10+
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19 | #6Louisville | N | L 79–83 | +4.0 | P0.0 | 160.0 | O162 | 105.0 | 110.3 | 75.2 |
| Mar 15 | Wichita St | N | W 70–55 | −6.0 | W+9.0 | 150.5 | U125 | 102.6 | 80.6 | 68.2 |
| Mar 14 | Charlotte | N | W 86–64 | −15.5 | W+6.5 | 153.5 | U150 | 125.1 | 93.1 | 68.7 |
| Mar 8 | Charlotte | H | W 83–60 | −17.5 | W+5.5 | 155.5 | U143 | 125.9 | 91.0 | 65.9 |
| Mar 5 | Memphis | A | W 96–89 | −7.5 | L−0.5 | 161.5 | O185 | 123.8 | 114.8 | 77.5 |
| Mar 1 | Tulane | H | W 90–62 | −15.0 | W+13.0 | 154.5 | U152 | 123.5 | 85.1 | 72.8 |
| Feb 25 | Rice | A | W 75–56 | −11.0 | W+8.0 | 157.0 | U131 | 107.8 | 80.5 | 69.6 |
| Feb 19 | Memphis | H | W 87–66 | −9.5 | W+11.5 | 163.5 | U153 | 124.2 | 94.2 | 70.1 |
| Feb 15 | FAU | A | W 83–81 OT | −5.0 | L−3.0 | 166.5 | U164 | 108.3 | 105.7 | 76.6 |
| Feb 11 | Wichita St | A | W 66–58 | −2.0 | W+6.0 | 160.0 | U124 | 95.1 | 83.5 | 69.4 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeJacksonvilleSouth Florida
Efficiency
104.9
114.7
111.9
103.3
65.8
71.0
—
—
Shooting
50.0%
50.6%
51.5%
52.0%
31.7%
32.5%
72.3%
74.6%
32.8%
40.4%
Ball control & glass
17.2%
15.1%
15.0%
19.1%
31.7%
38.1%
29.1%
31.9%
10.2%
8.6%
7.5%
13.1%
Style
37.4%
43.8%
44.0%
43.5%
11.1%
16.5%
44.7%
58.4%
38.8%
29.9%
Roster
2.36
3.18
6'5.2"
6'4.3"
—
84.4%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputJacksonville
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Jacksonville's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
South Florida
Returning minutes: 84.4%Returning production: 76.6%
Lost
- Izaiyah Nelson 27.3 mpg, 15.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Tristan Beckford 4.4 mpg, 1.6 ppg · transferred to Bowling Green
Added
- De'Ante Green no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 84% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.