CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceJeffery P. Hazell Athletics Center, West Haven, CT
NJIT
Efficiency #331
2025-26: 16-17 · 11-7 conf
@
New Haven
Efficiency #326
2025-26: 14-17 · 9-9 conf
Wed, Dec 9 · TBD
65.3
win 36%
Projected
69.5
win 64%
No line posted yet.
Model: NHVN −4.2 · total 134.8 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: New Haven 65.7, NJIT 68.7 → 66.1 possessions
−4.7
New Haven offense vs NJIT defense
−4.1
NJIT offense vs New Haven defense
−4.6
Projected total
134.8
Axis starts at 125 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
New Haven offense vs NJIT defense
−4.1
NJIT offense vs New Haven defense
+4.6
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.8
New Haven by 4.2
4.2
NJIT side ◂▸ New Haven side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +4.3 against +4.2. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help New Haven.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 66.1, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, NJIT is the faster team (67.9, #204 of 365) and New Haven the slower (63.5, #360). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
66.1
per team, 40 min
Projected total
134.8
model
Projected team totals
65.3 / 69.5
NJIT / New Haven
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
68.7#140
NJIT
65.7#349
New Haven

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
Pace
Half-court grind
New Haven averages 63.5 possessions per 40, NJIT 67.9. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 64 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
AdvantageNJIT
Where NJIT struggles: shooting
NJIT shoots an effective 46.7% (#342); New Haven allows 51.8% (#203). Expect about 48.9%, 2.4 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.3 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageNew Haven
Where New Haven struggles: the offensive glass
New Haven rebounds 21.5% of its own misses (#359); NJIT lets opponents grab 32.1% of their own misses (#264). Expect about 25.0%, 5.4 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.3 points per 100 possessions.
GlassNJIT
NJIT gets out-rebounded
Projected offensive rebound rate of 25.7% is worth roughly -2.8 points per 100 possessions against NJIT's offense.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (New Haven, NJIT) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect NJIT at about 39.3% of its shots from three, New Haven about 40.5%.
NJIT has the ball
OffenseNew Haven allowsvs D1 avg
46.7% #342
51.8% #203
-3.3 pt/100
17.1% #210
17.1% #142
-0.5 pt/100
26.2% #316
26.8% #30
-2.8 pt/100
33.2% #233
27.7% #31
-0.7 pt/100
70.5% #253
—
-0.2 pt/100
NJIT net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -7.5 pts/100
New Haven has the ball
OffenseNJIT allowsvs D1 avg
48.7% #296
50.0% #99
-3.0 pt/100
17.8% #257
16.2% #210
-0.2 pt/100
21.5% #359
32.1% #264
-3.3 pt/100
31.7% #261
37.9% #258
+0.0 pt/100
70.2% #266
—
-0.2 pt/100
New Haven net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -6.7 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
NJIToffense vsNew Havendefense
Share of shots by zone
NJIT shoots
New Haven allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim53.7%#32457.9%#14658.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)40.7%#15245.2%#30539.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)38.4%#17538.5%#17938.0%
Three30.4%#33634.3%#19833.7%
New Havenoffense vsNJITdefense
Share of shots by zone
New Haven shoots
NJIT allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim61.1%#9257.8%#14258.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)36.2%#26443.7%#26139.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)33.2%#32730.7%#738.0%
Three30.2%#34032.3%#7933.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
NJIT
−3.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#316 of 365
Off reb %
26.2%
#316
Def reb %
67.9%
#264
Turnover %
17.1%
#210
Forced TO %
16.2%
#210
FT rate
33.2%
#233
FT allowed
37.9%
#258
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.3
Defensive rebounding−0.5
Ball security−0.2
Forcing turnovers−0.3
Foul shots drawn−0.5
Foul shots allowed−0.7
New Haven
−1.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#230 of 365
Off reb %
21.5%
#359
Def reb %
73.2%
#30
Turnover %
17.8%
#257
Forced TO %
17.1%
#142
FT rate
31.7%
#261
FT allowed
27.7%
#31
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−2.9
Defensive rebounding+1.2
Ball security−0.7
Forcing turnovers+0.3
Foul shots drawn−0.8
Foul shots allowed+1.9

New Haven has more extra scoring chances per game: −1.0 (#230 of 365) to NJIT’s −3.5 (#316).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

NJIT2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted NJIT's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
1David BoldenGFr6'0"33-3329.811.82.82.82.041.9%31.8%6.780.2%28.6%
24Ari FultonGSo6'7"33-3228.310.96.21.21.547.1%26.2%3.278.9%24.2%
3Jordan RogersFSo6'6"33-3326.65.85.22.21.554.7%33.3%1.866.7%14.7%
0Sebastian RobinsonGJr6'3"30-1527.414.83.02.21.946.8%24.0%1.770.1%35.7%
11Melvyn EbonkoliFSr6'8"21-1826.17.35.70.61.751.6%—0.052.4%20.1%
25John KellyFSo6'8"33-015.64.32.50.40.647.1%34.2%1.268.8%17.6%
14Quentin DuncanGSo6'4"33-413.64.41.70.50.350.8%37.6%2.652.0%19.9%
44Rocco AwadGFr6'1"33-112.83.11.30.30.639.2%26.4%2.676.9%19.7%
32Malachi ArringtonCSo6'11"29-1514.23.93.70.00.759.7%—0.055.3%16.4%
2Jeremy ClayvilleGSo6'1"16-1419.46.81.51.51.342.7%30.1%5.2100.0%26.6%
33Zack ScherlerFFr6'11"19-06.51.01.20.20.350.0%—0.055.6%10.8%
8Jeffrey AkintoluFJr6'7"19-05.60.70.90.00.230.0%13.3%0.850.0%13.9%
7Cameron PiggeeGJr6'1"18-05.41.80.30.40.241.9%32.0%1.485.7%21.9%
5AJ AltobelliGFr6'0"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
13Stefan Jimenez-VojnicCSo6'11"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
NJITNew Haven
Efficiency
100.5
100.1
110.6
109.6
68.7
65.7
—
—
Shooting
46.7%
48.7%
47.5%
51.0%
30.4%
30.2%
70.5%
70.2%
33.2%
31.7%
Ball control & glass
17.1%
17.8%
16.2%
17.1%
26.2%
21.5%
32.1%
26.8%
9.6%
9.3%
9.0%
7.7%
Style
40.1%
39.8%
40.9%
45.0%
12.9%
9.8%
45.7%
49.7%
33.0%
27.6%
Roster
2.09
2.38
6'4.9"
6'5.9"
—
82.7%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
NJIT
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted NJIT's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

New Haven
Returning minutes: 82.7%Returning production: 78.3%
Lost
  • Jabri Fitzpatrick 34.5 mpg, 15.0 ppg · transferred to E Michigan
Added
  • Justice Hanna no D1 minutes last season
  • Matiss Ogle no D1 minutes last season
  • John Oladipo no D1 minutes last season
  • Owen Hotaling no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 83% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last
DateSeasonResult
Wed, Dec 102025-26New Haven 64 – 70 NJIT

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.