CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceNeutral sitePPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh, PABackyard Basketball Classic
Duquesne
Efficiency #131
2025-26: 18-15 · 10-10 conf
vs
Robert Morris
Efficiency #142
2025-26: 22-11 · 14-8 conf
Wed, Dec 9 · TBD
73.8
win 51%
Projected
73.5
win 49%
No line posted yet.
Model: DUQ −0.4 · total 147.3 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Robert Morris 66.4, Duquesne 69.3 → 67.4 possessions
−2.0
Robert Morris offense vs Duquesne defense
+0.3
Duquesne offense vs Robert Morris defense
+0.7
Projected total
147.3
Axis starts at 145 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Robert Morris offense vs Duquesne defense
+0.3
Duquesne offense vs Robert Morris defense
−0.7
Duquesne by 0.4
0.4
Duquesne side ◂▸ Robert Morris side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 147.2 against a projected 147.3. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Robert Morris.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 67.4, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Duquesne is the faster team (69.3, #127 of 365) and Robert Morris the slower (66.1, #289). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
67.4
per team, 40 min
Projected total
147.3
model
Projected team totals
73.8 / 73.5
Duquesne / Robert Morris
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
69.3#101
Duquesne
66.4#323
Robert Morris

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageRobert Morris
Where Robert Morris scores: shooting
Robert Morris shoots an effective 54.9% (#39); Duquesne allows 52.5% (#241). Expect about 54.0%, 2.7 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.9 points per 100 possessions.
GlassRobert Morris
Robert Morris owns the glass
Projected offensive rebound rate of 35.0% is worth roughly +2.8 points per 100 possessions for Robert Morris's offense.
TurnoversRobert Morris
Robert Morris turns it over
Projected turnover rate of 18.8% is worth roughly -2.5 points per 100 possessions against Robert Morris's offense.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Robert Morris) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Duquesne at about 41.2% of its shots from three, Robert Morris about 41.0%.
ClashDuquesne
Style clash: 3-point volume
Duquesne takes 44.4% of its shots from three; Robert Morris runs teams off the line (36.0% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 41.2% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).
Duquesne has the ball
OffenseRobert Morris allowsvs D1 avg
52.3% #131
50.0% #100
-0.0 pt/100
17.6% #245
15.9% #225
+0.1 pt/100
30.4% #184
28.8% #98
-0.5 pt/100
38.3% #94
40.1% #303
+0.6 pt/100
71.5% #220
—
-0.1 pt/100
Duquesne net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +0.1 pts/100
Robert Morris has the ball
OffenseDuquesne allowsvs D1 avg
54.9% #39
52.5% #241
+3.9 pt/100
18.6% #302
18.3% #84
-2.5 pt/100
37.5% #11
29.6% #142
+2.8 pt/100
28.0% #343
39.9% #300
-0.1 pt/100
69.4% #289
—
-0.3 pt/100
Robert Morris net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +3.9 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Duquesneoffense vsRobert Morrisdefense
Share of shots by zone
Duquesne shoots
Robert Morris allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim59.1%#15855.8%#8058.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)36.5%#25839.3%#16339.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)38.7%#16137.5%#14138.0%
Three33.1%#22333.2%#13533.7%
Robert Morrisoffense vsDuquesnedefense
Share of shots by zone
Robert Morris shoots
Duquesne allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim61.2%#8656.2%#9058.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)35.8%#27145.7%#31939.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)40.7%#8539.4%#21638.0%
Three38.0%#1836.2%#31433.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Duquesne
+0.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#161 of 365
Off reb %
30.4%
#184
Def reb %
70.4%
#142
Turnover %
17.6%
#245
Forced TO %
18.3%
#84
FT rate
38.3%
#94
FT allowed
39.9%
#300
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding0.0
Defensive rebounding+0.3
Ball security−0.6
Forcing turnovers+1.1
Foul shots drawn+0.9
Foul shots allowed−1.2
Robert Morris
−1.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#267 of 365
Off reb %
37.5%
#11
Def reb %
71.2%
#98
Turnover %
18.6%
#302
Forced TO %
15.9%
#225
FT rate
28.0%
#343
FT allowed
40.1%
#303
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+2.3
Defensive rebounding+0.6
Ball security−1.2
Forcing turnovers−0.6
Foul shots drawn−1.8
Foul shots allowed−1.2

Duquesne has more extra scoring chances per game: +0.5 (#161 of 365) to Robert Morris’s −1.9 (#267).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Duquesne2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Duquesne's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
1Tarence GuinyardGSr6'2"32-3233.316.63.34.72.254.6%36.0%6.271.4%28.2%
3Jimmie WilliamsGJr6'5"33-3329.715.14.52.61.754.5%33.9%5.575.7%28.8%
9Jakub NecasFJr6'10"32-3224.56.95.11.11.355.3%36.4%1.469.7%16.8%
2David DixonFSr6'9"33-2322.48.25.51.31.761.1%20.0%0.571.8%20.8%
5Cam CrawfordGSr6'5"32-2018.64.61.81.00.747.2%33.7%2.857.9%16.4%
6Alex WilliamsFSr6'5"31-117.99.23.50.91.154.5%39.6%3.481.0%28.9%
0Brandon HallGJr6'4"26-1418.93.41.30.80.944.3%33.3%1.650.0%14.7%
4John Hugley IVFSr6'11"27-1016.07.73.51.31.452.5%27.3%1.274.7%27.6%
22Maximus EdwardsGSr6'5"23-016.06.32.81.30.946.9%28.4%2.964.7%25.3%
44Jake DiMicheleGSo6'4"25-014.43.81.10.70.449.4%29.5%1.881.3%15.7%
7Dom AekinsGFr5'10"14-07.83.00.80.70.647.5%28.6%1.057.1%25.9%
18Stef van BusselCSo6'10"17-05.91.41.80.40.883.3%—0.030.0%17.1%
27Lazar MilosevicFFr6'10"12-07.62.01.50.40.359.4%20.0%0.462.5%14.8%
33Lucas ProllaGJr6'2"4-02.81.00.50.00.575.0%50.0%0.550.0%24.4%
32Ethan AnishGSo6'1"4-02.31.30.00.00.050.0%0.0%0.375.0%23.4%
31Seamus McDermottGJr6'2"3-02.70.00.30.30.00.0%0.0%1.7—34.0%
8Arness LawsonGFr6'2"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
17Frederik JellumFFr6'10"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
DuquesneRobert Morris
Efficiency
109.6
110.0
107.5
108.4
69.3
66.4
—
—
Shooting
52.3%
54.9%
54.5%
53.5%
33.1%
38.0%
71.5%
69.4%
38.3%
28.0%
Ball control & glass
17.6%
18.6%
18.3%
15.9%
30.4%
37.5%
29.6%
28.8%
9.8%
10.3%
12.5%
10.0%
Style
44.4%
40.7%
42.9%
43.9%
15.7%
8.4%
55.9%
62.8%
31.8%
32.8%
Roster
3.43
2.82
6'5.8"
6'5.2"
—
84.8%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Duquesne
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Duquesne's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Robert Morris
Returning minutes: 84.8%Returning production: 77.0%
Lost
  • DeSean Goode 31.0 mpg, 15.2 ppg · transferred to Miami
Added
  • Tanner O'Grady no D1 minutes last season
  • Vasilije Serafimoski no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 85% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.