CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceCorbett Sports Center, Greensboro, NC

James Madison

Efficiency #206

2025-26: 18-15 · 10-10 conf

NC A&T

Efficiency #271

2025-26: 11-19 · 4-15 conf

Wed, Dec 9 · 7:00 PM ET

75.0

win 47%

Projected

75.9

win 53%

No line posted yet.

Model: NCAT −0.9 · total 151.0 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: NC A&T 69.0, James Madison 67.4 → 68.1 possessions

−0.5

NC A&T offense vs James Madison defense

+0.1

James Madison offense vs NC A&T defense

+3.1

Projected total

151.0

Axis starts at 146 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

NC A&T offense vs James Madison defense

+0.1

James Madison offense vs NC A&T defense

−3.1

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.9

NC A&T by 0.9

0.9

James Madison side ◂▸ NC A&T side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 150.9 against a projected 151.0. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help NC A&T.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 68.1, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, NC A&T is the faster team (69.1, #141 of 365) and James Madison the slower (67.0, #242). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

68.1

per team, 40 min

Projected total

151.0

model

Projected team totals

75.0 / 75.9

James Madison / NC A&T

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

67.4#259

James Madison

69.0#121

NC A&T

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageJames Madison

Where James Madison scores: shooting

James Madison shoots an effective 53.1% (#97); NC A&T allows 52.9% (#266). Expect about 53.2%, 1.9 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.7 points per 100 possessions.

ClashNC A&T

Style match: ball movement

NC A&T creates off the dribble (assists on 45.4% of its baskets); James Madison breaks up passing offenses (assists on 45.5% allowed) (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 43.4% — both habits push the same way.

AdvantageNC A&T

Where NC A&T struggles: shooting

NC A&T shoots an effective 50.7% (#201); James Madison allows 49.0% (#66). Expect about 49.7%, 1.5 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.2 points per 100 possessions.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (NC A&T's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect James Madison at about 41.0% of its shots from three, NC A&T about 33.2%.

TurnoversNC A&T

NC A&T protects the ball

Projected turnover rate of 15.2% is worth roughly +1.9 points per 100 possessions for NC A&T's offense.

TurnoversJames Madison

James Madison protects the ball

Projected turnover rate of 15.4% is worth roughly +1.7 points per 100 possessions for James Madison's offense.

James Madison has the ball

OffenseNC A&T allowsvs D1 avg

53.1% #97

52.9% #266

+2.7 pt/100

17.3% #226

14.1% #331

+1.7 pt/100

30.6% #175

28.6% #89

-0.4 pt/100

35.9% #153

37.5% #250

+0.2 pt/100

70.3% #263

—

-0.2 pt/100

James Madison net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +4.1 pts/100

NC A&T has the ball

OffenseJames Madison allowsvs D1 avg

50.7% #201

49.0% #66

-2.2 pt/100

18.6% #305

12.8% #360

+1.9 pt/100

31.7% #136

29.5% #134

+0.3 pt/100

42.3% #26

40.8% #310

+0.9 pt/100

73.5% #154

—

+0.1 pt/100

NC A&T net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +0.9 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

James Madisonoffense vsNC A&Tdefense

Share of shots by zone

James Madison shoots

40.6

6.7

11.1

41.6

NC A&T allows

37.6

7.3

18.1

37.0

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	61.1%#91	60.0%#225	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	42.1%#118	36.9%#109	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	30.2%#352	39.0%#202	38.0%
Three	35.4%#94	36.6%#331	33.7%

NC A&Toffense vsJames Madisondefense

Share of shots by zone

NC A&T shoots

37.1

6.7

24.1

32.2

James Madison allows

37.1

6.6

18.3

38.0

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	60.9%#97	56.6%#103	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	34.4%#297	37.6%#128	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	41.5%#72	38.5%#182	38.0%
Three	31.6%#304	32.7%#101	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

James Madison

−3.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#327 of 365

Off reb %

30.6%

#175

Def reb %

70.5%

#134

Turnover %

17.3%

#226

Forced TO %

12.8%

#360

FT rate

35.9%

#153

FT allowed

40.8%

#310

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.1

Defensive rebounding+0.4

Ball security−0.4

Forcing turnovers−2.7

Foul shots drawn+0.2

Foul shots allowed−1.4

NC A&T

−0.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#209 of 365

Off reb %

31.7%

#136

Def reb %

71.4%

#89

Turnover %

18.6%

#305

Forced TO %

14.1%

#331

FT rate

42.3%

#26

FT allowed

37.5%

#250

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.4

Defensive rebounding+0.6

Ball security−1.2

Forcing turnovers−1.8

Foul shots drawn+1.9

Foul shots allowed−0.6

NC A&T has more extra scoring chances per game: −0.7 (#209 of 365) to James Madison’s −3.8 (#327).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

James Madison2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
10	Cliff Davis	G	Sr	6'2"	33-33	31.3	15.6	3.1	1.7	1.2	55.1%	37.8%	7.9	87.1%	27.5%
2	Bradley Douglas	G	Sr	6'1"	32-18	27.6	12.1	2.0	3.5	2.3	50.2%	35.6%	4.7	73.3%	29.2%
3	Eddie Ricks III	F	Jr	6'7"	32-20	26.8	7.1	5.6	1.6	0.9	53.8%	27.8%	1.7	78.7%	15.3%
13	Preston Fowler	F	Fr	6'8"	33-14	23.1	6.2	4.6	0.9	0.5	49.1%	29.8%	3.7	72.3%	16.9%
33	Gabe Newhof	F	Sr	6'9"	33-33	18.9	8.1	3.7	0.3	0.8	61.3%	—	0.0	53.5%	23.9%
0	Christian Brown	F	Fr	6'8"	33-0	13.3	3.0	3.8	0.4	0.9	57.0%	33.3%	0.1	56.8%	15.7%
12	Kose Egbule	G	Sr	6'2"	22-15	16.2	3.7	2.0	1.8	1.4	41.5%	31.4%	1.6	69.7%	20.0%
1	Paul Jones III	G	So	6'4"	20-0	11.2	2.8	0.8	0.7	0.7	41.2%	29.5%	2.2	64.3%	20.2%
11	Paul Lewis	G	Jr	6'2"	14-1	11.8	2.5	0.9	1.8	0.7	28.6%	25.0%	1.1	78.6%	20.8%
5	Justin Taylor	G	Sr	6'6"	18-1	7.7	1.0	0.6	0.2	0.2	45.5%	66.7%	0.2	57.1%	9.0%
23	Ike Cornish	G	Sr	6'6"	6-0	11.0	3.5	2.3	0.7	1.0	56.7%	35.7%	2.3	44.4%	23.5%
4	Chance Lundy	G	Sr	6'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
15	Josh Stephen	G	Sr	6'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

NC A&T2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted NC A&T's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
5	Lewis Walker	F	Fr	6'6"	29-26	34.2	18.9	5.0	1.8	1.8	55.2%	36.7%	2.7	86.2%	28.1%
8	Zamoku Weluche-Ume	F	Jr	6'8"	29-24	30.7	11.3	7.2	0.9	2.2	48.5%	26.9%	2.7	63.0%	25.0%
1	Trent Middleton Jr.	G	Jr	6'3"	29-28	29.6	12.5	3.6	3.1	2.3	50.9%	31.1%	3.6	76.5%	26.8%
11	Dwayne Pierce	G	So	6'5"	24-23	28.0	8.5	2.3	2.7	2.1	41.4%	30.8%	3.8	62.1%	24.5%
4	Bryson Ogletree	G	Jr	6'4"	28-8	21.0	4.5	1.8	1.1	0.8	60.4%	36.4%	2.0	53.6%	12.2%
34	Will Felton	C	Jr	6'9"	29-5	15.7	6.7	4.2	0.3	0.9	69.6%	—	0.0	57.6%	21.4%
14	Amadou Doumbia	F	So	6'11"	27-23	14.0	3.4	4.0	0.2	0.5	51.5%	0.0%	0.1	63.9%	14.7%
7	Brooklyn Vick	G	Fr	6'2"	19-5	17.7	3.7	2.3	2.4	1.6	37.7%	23.1%	1.4	65.5%	19.0%
32	KJ Debrick	F	Sr	6'9"	29-2	11.4	4.5	3.4	0.5	0.3	48.0%	15.4%	0.4	72.0%	22.8%
2	Mujahiid Burton	G	Jr	6'5"	20-2	16.4	5.0	1.3	0.5	0.5	47.4%	31.9%	3.5	62.5%	19.7%
0	Lureon Walker	G	Jr	6'5"	5-4	29.0	16.6	3.0	1.0	1.0	54.5%	50.0%	3.6	68.8%	27.7%
9	Yancarlos Cueto	G	Fr	6'5"	6-0	8.7	2.3	1.2	0.5	0.8	45.8%	33.3%	1.5	75.0%	19.6%
20	Chanler Montgomery	G	So	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
31	Efstratios Kalliontzis	C	So	6'11"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
15	Jalal McKie	G	Jr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
10	Uchenna Kellman-Nicholes	G	Jr	6'5"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

James Madison2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
10	Cliff Davis	G	Sr	6'2"	33-33	31.3	15.6	3.1	1.7	1.2	55.1%	37.8%	7.9	87.1%	27.5%
2	Bradley Douglas	G	Sr	6'1"	32-18	27.6	12.1	2.0	3.5	2.3	50.2%	35.6%	4.7	73.3%	29.2%
3	Eddie Ricks III	F	Jr	6'7"	32-20	26.8	7.1	5.6	1.6	0.9	53.8%	27.8%	1.7	78.7%	15.3%
13	Preston Fowler	F	Fr	6'8"	33-14	23.1	6.2	4.6	0.9	0.5	49.1%	29.8%	3.7	72.3%	16.9%
33	Gabe Newhof	F	Sr	6'9"	33-33	18.9	8.1	3.7	0.3	0.8	61.3%	—	0.0	53.5%	23.9%
0	Christian Brown	F	Fr	6'8"	33-0	13.3	3.0	3.8	0.4	0.9	57.0%	33.3%	0.1	56.8%	15.7%
12	Kose Egbule	G	Sr	6'2"	22-15	16.2	3.7	2.0	1.8	1.4	41.5%	31.4%	1.6	69.7%	20.0%
1	Paul Jones III	G	So	6'4"	20-0	11.2	2.8	0.8	0.7	0.7	41.2%	29.5%	2.2	64.3%	20.2%
11	Paul Lewis	G	Jr	6'2"	14-1	11.8	2.5	0.9	1.8	0.7	28.6%	25.0%	1.1	78.6%	20.8%
5	Justin Taylor	G	Sr	6'6"	18-1	7.7	1.0	0.6	0.2	0.2	45.5%	66.7%	0.2	57.1%	9.0%
23	Ike Cornish	G	Sr	6'6"	6-0	11.0	3.5	2.3	0.7	1.0	56.7%	35.7%	2.3	44.4%	23.5%
4	Chance Lundy	G	Sr	6'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
15	Josh Stephen	G	Sr	6'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

James Madison

Against the spread

Season

13-19

Home

5-9

Road

6-9

Last 10

6-4

avg cover +1.6

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 8 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

15-17

Home

4-10

Road

8-7

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total +2.2

Over 2 straightOver in 4 of 8 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 5	Southern MissAdjEM #218	N	L 80–86	−2.0	L−8.0	143.5	O166	111.1	119.4	72.0
Mar 4	LouisianaAdjEM #318	N	W 87–72	−6.5	W+8.5	135.0	O159	122.3	101.2	71.2
Feb 27	CoastalAdjEM #241	H	L 68–69	−6.0	L−7.0	142.0	U137	107.0	108.6	63.5
Feb 25	GA SouthernAdjEM #231	H	W 82–66	−5.5	W+10.5	153.5	U148	116.4	93.7	70.4
Feb 21	Georgia StAdjEM #310	A	W 80–65	−2.5	W+12.5	142.5	O145	119.4	97.0	67.0
Feb 18	CoastalAdjEM #241	A	W 67–65	−1.0	W+1.0	141.5	U132	102.2	99.1	65.6
Feb 14	App StateAdjEM #180	H	W 69–58	+1.5	W+12.5	135.0	U127	112.7	94.7	61.2
Feb 12	Georgia StAdjEM #310	H	W 81–79 OT	−6.0	L−4.0	144.0	O160	109.5	106.8	74.0
Feb 7	ToledoAdjEM #115	H	W 73–71	+1.0	W+3.0	152.0	U144	109.6	106.6	66.6
Feb 4	LouisianaAdjEM #318	H	L 61–64	−9.5	L−12.5	132.0	U125	107.7	113.0	56.6

NC A&T

Against the spread

Season

16-12

Home

6-4

Road

9-6

Last 10

4-6

avg cover −1.0

Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 4 of 10 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

16-11-1

Home

6-4

Road

8-6-1

Last 10

6-4

avg vs total +1.7

Over 5 straightOver in 6 of 10 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 6	NortheasternAdjEM #274	N	L 72–88	+2.0	L−14.0	152.5	O160	100.5	122.9	71.6
Mar 3	CampbellAdjEM #208	A	L 72–90	+7.5	L−10.5	155.0	O162	101.8	127.3	70.7
Feb 28	William & MaryAdjEM #127	H	L 88–91	+7.0	W+4.0	163.5	O179	117.0	121.0	75.2
Feb 26	UNC WilmingtonAdjEM #86	A	L 65–88	+13.5	L−9.5	147.5	O153	100.6	136.2	64.6
Feb 21	ElonAdjEM #228	A	W 102–82	+8.0	W+28.0	152.5	O184	150.6	121.1	67.7
Feb 19	CharlestonAdjEM #165	H	L 61–74	+5.0	L−8.0	146.0	U135	96.2	116.7	63.4
Feb 13	HamptonAdjEM #268	N	W 71–70	+3.0	W+4.0	138.0	O141	107.1	105.6	66.3
Feb 7	CampbellAdjEM #208	H	L 71–79	+3.0	L−5.0	159.5	U150	101.2	112.6	70.2
Feb 5	CharlestonAdjEM #165	A	L 62–78	+10.5	L−5.5	155.0	U140	87.2	109.7	71.1
Jan 31	DrexelAdjEM #214	A	L 60–61	+7.5	W+6.5	138.5	U121	93.7	95.3	64.0

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

James MadisonNC A&T

Efficiency

109.2

106.4

110.7

112.3

67.4

69.0

—

Shooting

53.1%

50.7%

53.2%

52.3%

35.4%

31.6%

70.3%

73.5%

35.9%

42.3%

Ball control & glass

17.3%

18.6%

12.8%

14.1%

30.6%

31.7%

29.5%

28.6%

9.5%

9.7%

11.1%

8.4%

Style

42.5%

32.7%

43.8%

41.2%

13.9%

15.4%

48.3%

45.4%

34.8%

30.2%

Roster

3.09

2.42

6'4.9"

6'6"

83.4%

—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

James Madison

Returning minutes: 83.4%Returning production: 78.2%

Lost

Justin McBride 25.5 mpg, 14.3 ppg · transferred to Kentucky
Elijah Wilborn 8.0 mpg, 2.2 ppg · transferred to Merrimack

Added

Josh Stephen no D1 minutes last season
Chance Lundy no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 83% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

NC A&T

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted NC A&T's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.