CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceCintas Center, Cincinnati, OH
Purdue FW
Efficiency #258
2025-26: 17-15 · 11-10 conf
@
Xavier
Efficiency #129
2025-26: 15-18 · 7-15 conf
Wed, Dec 9 · TBD
73.6
win 21%
Projected
82.8
win 79%
No line posted yet.
Model: XAV −9.2 · total 156.4 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Xavier 70.3, Purdue FW 68.6 → 70.5 possessions
+4.8
Xavier offense vs Purdue FW defense
+4.2
Purdue FW offense vs Xavier defense
−0.9
Projected total
156.4
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Xavier offense vs Purdue FW defense
+4.2
Purdue FW offense vs Xavier defense
+0.9
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.1
Xavier by 9.2
9.2
Purdue FW side ◂▸ Xavier side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 156.3 against a projected 156.4. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Xavier.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 70.5, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Xavier is the faster team (71.2, #44 of 365) and Purdue FW the slower (69.0, #145). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
70.5
per team, 40 min
Projected total
156.4
model
Projected team totals
73.6 / 82.8
Purdue FW / Xavier
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
68.6#160
Purdue FW
70.3#33
Xavier
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageXavier
Where Xavier scores: shooting
Xavier shoots an effective 51.8% (#155); Purdue FW allows 56.1% (#345). Expect about 54.0%, 2.8 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.9 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantagePurdue FW
Where Purdue FW struggles: the offensive glass
Purdue FW rebounds 22.9% of its own misses (#351); Xavier lets opponents grab 29.5% of their own misses (#136). Expect about 24.7%, 5.7 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.5 points per 100 possessions.
TurnoversPurdue FW
Purdue FW protects the ball
Projected turnover rate of 14.7% is worth roughly +2.6 points per 100 possessions for Purdue FW's offense.
Pace
Track meet
Xavier averages 71.2 possessions per 40, Purdue FW 69.0. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 71 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Xavier, Purdue FW's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Purdue FW at about 42.5% of its shots from three, Xavier about 43.3%.
ClashXavier
Strength vs strength: live-ball turnovers
Xavier (#48 in live-ball turnovers) against Purdue FW (#37 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 10.3%. Historically Purdue FW's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.40 vs 0.65).
Purdue FW has the ball
OffenseXavier allowsvs D1 avg
52.6% #125
54.1% #302
+3.1 pt/100
14.5% #44
15.5% #248
+2.6 pt/100
22.9% #351
29.5% #136
-3.5 pt/100
30.6% #292
32.6% #119
-0.4 pt/100
70.7% #247
—
-0.1 pt/100
Purdue FW net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.7 pts/100
Xavier has the ball
OffensePurdue FW allowsvs D1 avg
51.8% #155
56.1% #345
+3.9 pt/100
13.9% #21
19.1% #45
+0.2 pt/100
26.5% #311
34.5% #327
-0.4 pt/100
28.1% #341
28.5% #36
-0.9 pt/100
72.9% #174
—
+0.0 pt/100
Xavier net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +2.8 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersPurdue FWoffense vsXavierdefense
Share of shots by zone
Purdue FW shoots
41.7
3.2
10.2
44.9
Xavier allows
42.1
5.3
15.6
37.0
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 58.5%#176 | 62.0%#301 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 40.0%#171 | 36.5%#100 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 36.5%#251 | 40.6%#261 | 38.0% |
| Three | 34.2%#163 | 34.8%#237 | 33.7% |
Xavieroffense vsPurdue FWdefense
Share of shots by zone
Xavier shoots
31.9
6.8
21.1
40.2
Purdue FW allows
39.8
4.2
12.3
43.7
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 58.2%#190 | 62.7%#317 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 45.2%#61 | 30.3%#17 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 37.6%#199 | 35.8%#100 | 38.0% |
| Three | 36.5%#39 | 37.9%#355 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersPurdue FW
+0.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#177 of 365
Off reb %
22.9%
#351
Def reb %
65.5%
#327
Turnover %
14.5%
#44
Forced TO %
19.1%
#45
FT rate
30.6%
#292
FT allowed
28.5%
#36
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−2.4
Defensive rebounding−1.3
Ball security+1.5
Forcing turnovers+1.6
Foul shots drawn−1.1
Foul shots allowed+1.7
Xavier
−0.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#223 of 365
Off reb %
26.5%
#311
Def reb %
70.5%
#136
Turnover %
13.9%
#21
Forced TO %
15.5%
#248
FT rate
28.1%
#341
FT allowed
32.6%
#119
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.2
Defensive rebounding+0.3
Ball security+1.9
Forcing turnovers−0.8
Foul shots drawn−1.8
Foul shots allowed+0.7
Purdue FW has more extra scoring chances per game: +0.1 (#177 of 365) to Xavier’s −0.9 (#223).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Purdue FW2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Purdue FW's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Corey Hadnot II | G | Jr | 6'3" | 32-32 | 33.2 | 20.4 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 58.1% | 35.8% | 5.0 | 69.0% | 32.9% | |
| 2 | Mikale Stevenson | G | Sr | 6'2" | 32-32 | 29.8 | 13.9 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 49.3% | 34.2% | 4.8 | 79.6% | 29.3% | |
| 9 | DeAndre Craig Jr. | G | Jr | 6'0" | 32-32 | 28.8 | 14.0 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 51.3% | 38.5% | 4.2 | 79.4% | 27.7% | |
| 11 | Maximus Nelson | F | Sr | 6'8" | 32-32 | 27.5 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 55.1% | 36.9% | 6.1 | 82.8% | 15.4% | |
| 34 | Darius Duffy | F | Sr | 6'8" | 32-15 | 21.6 | 5.0 | 4.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 70.5% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 26.5% | 11.8% | |
| 13 | Deangelo Elisee | F | Sr | 6'9" | 32-17 | 13.8 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 70.4% | 50.0% | 0.1 | 61.5% | 13.9% | |
| 5 | EJ Mosley | G | Fr | 6'0" | 32-0 | 13.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 47.6% | 31.3% | 1.5 | 77.8% | 14.3% | |
| 4 | Chris Morgan | G | Jr | 6'2" | 27-0 | 14.5 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 45.4% | 28.2% | 1.4 | 78.8% | 13.8% | |
| 15 | Yuval Levin | F | Fr | 6'8" | 32-0 | 9.6 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 47.8% | 28.3% | 1.4 | 68.0% | 21.6% | |
| 1 | Ebrahim Kaba | G | Fr | 6'9" | 20-0 | 12.8 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 51.3% | 34.0% | 2.5 | 100.0% | 19.9% | |
| 24 | Mason Shrout | G | Fr | 6'5" | 13-0 | 5.9 | 3.7 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 60.6% | 38.5% | 2.0 | 88.9% | 27.0% | |
| 22 | Danny Kelly | G | Fr | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 0 | Ja'Corey Lipkins | G | So | 6'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 31 | Quentin Morgan | F | Fr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 23 | Solomon Richard | G | Fr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Xavier2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Malik Messina-Moore | G | Sr | 6'5" | 33-33 | 33.2 | 10.9 | 3.0 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 46.7% | 31.8% | 4.8 | 80.0% | 20.4% | |
| 4 | Filip Borovicanin | F | Sr | 6'9" | 33-32 | 31.2 | 10.8 | 7.4 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 49.3% | 34.9% | 3.2 | 87.3% | 21.7% | |
| 24 | Jovan Milicevic | F | So | 6'10" | 33-31 | 26.1 | 12.4 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 54.9% | 42.9% | 4.7 | 72.8% | 26.0% | |
| 0 | Roddie Anderson III | G | Sr | 6'3" | 33-5 | 23.8 | 10.9 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 45.7% | 31.4% | 3.7 | 72.2% | 29.3% | |
| 3 | All Wright | G | So | 6'3" | 33-28 | 22.2 | 7.5 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 56.5% | 42.2% | 2.7 | 84.1% | 17.4% | |
| 7 | Isaiah Walker | G | Sr | 6'5" | 32-1 | 17.0 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 57.6% | 41.1% | 1.8 | 80.0% | 14.0% | |
| 22 | Pape N'Diaye | F | So | 7'0" | 29-0 | 9.3 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 56.4% | 42.9% | 0.7 | 55.6% | 11.7% | |
| 21 | Anthony Robinson | F | So | 6'10" | 26-3 | 10.0 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 54.3% | — | 0.0 | 43.4% | 16.5% | |
| 9 | Mier Panoam | G | Jr | 6'2" | 7-0 | 5.6 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 25.0% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 40.0% | 18.8% | |
| 31 | Ian Sabourin | F | Sr | 6'4" | 6-0 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 150.0% | 100.0% | 0.3 | 50.0% | 23.5% | |
| 20 | Henry Thole | F | So | 6'7" | 5-0 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0% | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 17.8% | |
| 25 | Michael Wolf | G | Sr | 6'1" | 4-0 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3 | — | 8.9% | |
| 2 | Gabriel Pozzato | F | So | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 15 | Kason Westphal | C | Fr | 7'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 8 | Luke Naser | G | So | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Purdue FW2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Purdue FW's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Corey Hadnot II | G | Jr | 6'3" | 32-32 | 33.2 | 20.4 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 58.1% | 35.8% | 5.0 | 69.0% | 32.9% | |
| 2 | Mikale Stevenson | G | Sr | 6'2" | 32-32 | 29.8 | 13.9 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 49.3% | 34.2% | 4.8 | 79.6% | 29.3% | |
| 9 | DeAndre Craig Jr. | G | Jr | 6'0" | 32-32 | 28.8 | 14.0 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 51.3% | 38.5% | 4.2 | 79.4% | 27.7% | |
| 11 | Maximus Nelson | F | Sr | 6'8" | 32-32 | 27.5 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 55.1% | 36.9% | 6.1 | 82.8% | 15.4% | |
| 34 | Darius Duffy | F | Sr | 6'8" | 32-15 | 21.6 | 5.0 | 4.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 70.5% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 26.5% | 11.8% | |
| 13 | Deangelo Elisee | F | Sr | 6'9" | 32-17 | 13.8 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 70.4% | 50.0% | 0.1 | 61.5% | 13.9% | |
| 5 | EJ Mosley | G | Fr | 6'0" | 32-0 | 13.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 47.6% | 31.3% | 1.5 | 77.8% | 14.3% | |
| 4 | Chris Morgan | G | Jr | 6'2" | 27-0 | 14.5 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 45.4% | 28.2% | 1.4 | 78.8% | 13.8% | |
| 15 | Yuval Levin | F | Fr | 6'8" | 32-0 | 9.6 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 47.8% | 28.3% | 1.4 | 68.0% | 21.6% | |
| 1 | Ebrahim Kaba | G | Fr | 6'9" | 20-0 | 12.8 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 51.3% | 34.0% | 2.5 | 100.0% | 19.9% | |
| 24 | Mason Shrout | G | Fr | 6'5" | 13-0 | 5.9 | 3.7 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 60.6% | 38.5% | 2.0 | 88.9% | 27.0% | |
| 22 | Danny Kelly | G | Fr | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 0 | Ja'Corey Lipkins | G | So | 6'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 31 | Quentin Morgan | F | Fr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 23 | Solomon Richard | G | Fr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Purdue FW
Against the spread
Season
13-16
Home
5-7
Road
8-9
Last 10
4-6
avg cover −4.5
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 5 as a favoriteCovered 1 of 5 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
16-13
Home
7-5
Road
9-8
Last 10
6-4
avg vs total −0.9
Under in the last gameOver in 5 of 5 as a favoriteOver in 1 of 5 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3 | Green Bay | A | L 56–64 | +4.5 | L−3.5 | 145.0 | U120 | 96.7 | 110.6 | 57.9 |
| Feb 28 | IU Indy | A | W 87–81 | −1.0 | W+5.0 | 160.5 | O168 | 125.0 | 116.4 | 69.6 |
| Feb 25 | Wright St | H | L 70–74 | +1.0 | L−3.0 | 152.0 | U144 | 98.7 | 104.3 | 70.9 |
| Feb 22 | Cleveland St | A | W 92–86 | −3.0 | W+3.0 | 163.0 | O178 | 120.7 | 112.8 | 76.2 |
| Feb 18 | N Kentucky | A | L 71–87 | +6.0 | L−10.0 | 154.0 | O158 | 99.7 | 122.1 | 71.2 |
| Feb 15 | IU Indy | H | W 83–78 | −6.5 | L−1.5 | 158.5 | O161 | 110.7 | 104.1 | 75.0 |
| Feb 12 | Green Bay | A | L 59–76 | +1.5 | L−15.5 | 144.5 | U135 | 100.1 | 129.0 | 58.9 |
| Feb 7 | Wright St | A | L 68–73 | +7.0 | W+2.0 | 150.0 | U141 | 109.2 | 117.2 | 62.3 |
| Feb 4 | Youngstown St | H | L 61–90 | −2.5 | L−31.5 | 147.0 | O151 | 96.0 | 141.6 | 63.5 |
| Jan 31 | Robert Morris | H | W 83–71 | −2.5 | W+9.5 | 144.5 | O154 | 118.8 | 101.6 | 69.9 |
Xavier
Against the spread
Season
18-15
Home
10-8
Road
5-6
Last 10
6-4
avg cover +0.7
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 8 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
25-7-1
Home
14-4
Road
8-2-1
Last 10
9-1
avg vs total +13.2
Over 6 straightOver in 7 of 8 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12 | #6UConn | N | L 68–93 | +16.5 | L−8.5 | 151.0 | O161 | 105.5 | 144.4 | 64.4 |
| Mar 11 | Marquette | N | W 89–87 | +4.0 | W+6.0 | 157.0 | O176 | 116.3 | 113.7 | 76.6 |
| Mar 7 | Villanova | A | L 78–91 | +13.5 | W+0.5 | 154.0 | O169 | 109.9 | 128.2 | 71.0 |
| Mar 3 | Seton Hall | H | L 68–77 | +2.0 | L−7.0 | 144.5 | O145 | 107.2 | 121.4 | 63.4 |
| Feb 28 | Georgetown | H | W 91–84 | −4.5 | W+2.5 | 154.0 | O175 | 127.4 | 117.6 | 71.4 |
| Feb 25 | Providence | A | L 84–94 | +5.5 | L−4.5 | 170.0 | O178 | 120.9 | 135.3 | 69.5 |
| Feb 21 | Butler | A | L 75–80 | +4.5 | L−0.5 | 159.5 | U155 | 110.4 | 117.7 | 67.9 |
| Feb 17 | Villanova | H | L 89–92 OT | +4.0 | W+1.0 | 153.5 | O181 | 112.9 | 116.7 | 78.8 |
| Feb 14 | Marquette | H | W 96–88 | −2.0 | W+6.0 | 157.5 | O184 | 133.1 | 122.1 | 72.1 |
| Feb 9 | #17St John's | A | L 82–87 OT | +16.5 | W+11.5 | 159.5 | O169 | 99.1 | 105.1 | 82.8 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homePurdue FWXavier
Efficiency
106.3
111.7
111.2
109.4
68.6
70.3
—
—
Shooting
52.6%
51.8%
53.7%
49.8%
34.2%
36.5%
70.7%
72.9%
30.6%
28.1%
Ball control & glass
14.5%
13.9%
19.1%
15.5%
22.9%
26.5%
34.5%
29.5%
7.3%
8.2%
8.3%
10.2%
Style
45.3%
40.6%
43.2%
38.8%
15.9%
17.2%
49.8%
62.2%
30.8%
27.4%
Roster
3.13
3.23
6'4.3"
6'6.5"
—
84.8%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputPurdue FW
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Purdue FW's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Xavier
Returning minutes: 84.8%Returning production: 79.8%
Lost
- Tre Carroll 30.7 mpg, 17.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Gabriel Pozzato no D1 minutes last season
- Kason Westphal no D1 minutes last season
- Luke Naser no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 85% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.