CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneSteps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 143.1 against a projected 143.0. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Georgetown.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesProjected possessions: 66.5, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Georgetown is the faster team (67.0, #244 of 365) and Rider the slower (65.7, #309). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetShot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 49.2%#364 | 56.6%#105 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 41.5%#130 | 33.3%#31 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 36.9%#227 | 41.9%#294 | 38.0% |
| Three | 27.7%#365 | 33.3%#139 | 33.7% |
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 56.9%#243 | 57.0%#111 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 39.7%#182 | 40.6%#203 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 40.9%#80 | 44.7%#346 | 38.0% |
| Three | 31.8%#285 | 37.9%#356 | 33.7% |
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersGeorgetown has more extra scoring chances per game: +1.7 (#113 of 365) to Rider’s −1.6 (#258).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Mark Butlerat Lafayette | G | Sr | 5'10" | 32-32 | 33.9 | 10.7 | 2.2 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 43.7% | 25.0% | 0.6 | 76.0% | 20.9% | |
| 22 | Khalil Farmerat UMass Lowell | G | Sr | 6'4" | 33-0 | 14.2 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 43.2% | 32.1% | 1.7 | 61.7% | 18.3% | |
| 55 | Bryce Bakerat Charleston | G | Sr | 6'5" | 8-0 | 13.3 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 26.1% | 10.5% | 2.4 | 50.0% | 14.9% | |
| 23 | Horace Simmons Jr.at Drexel | F | Jr | 6'6" | 13-0 | 6.8 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 32.8% | 18.8% | 1.2 | 75.0% | 22.8% | |
| 5 | Ty Bevinsat G Washington | G | Jr | 6'6" | 10-0 | 7.6 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 42.1% | 26.7% | 1.5 | 75.0% | 17.0% | |
| 13 | Rich Briscoat Akron | F | So | 6'8" | 8-0 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 27.2% | |
| 14 | Kam Wylieat 2598 | F | So | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 24 | Bryce Presley | G | Fr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 11 | JJ Washington | G | Fr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 9 | Mikes Connelly | G | Fr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 3 | Nasir Washington | G | Jr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 2 | Richie Rosa | G | Fr | 6'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 0 | Segun Ezekiel Obe | F | So | 6'10" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 8 | Stephen Avegah Semey | C | Jr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Malik Mack | G | Jr | 6'2" | 34-34 | 32.2 | 13.6 | 3.0 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 45.0% | 29.8% | 5.5 | 81.8% | 28.8% | |
| 4 | Caleb Williams | F | So | 6'7" | 33-33 | 30.0 | 8.8 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 54.2% | 37.7% | 3.5 | 75.4% | 17.1% | |
| 5 | KJ Lewis | G | Jr | 6'4" | 28-27 | 30.0 | 14.9 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 45.6% | 30.5% | 3.8 | 75.2% | 33.1% | |
| 25 | Jeremiah Williams | G | Sr | 6'4" | 34-7 | 20.3 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 43.1% | 37.1% | 1.0 | 67.9% | 22.7% | |
| 7 | Isaiah Abraham | F | So | 6'7" | 33-31 | 19.9 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 47.2% | 32.5% | 2.3 | 69.4% | 15.9% | |
| 11 | Julius Halaifonua | C | So | 7'0" | 32-28 | 19.8 | 9.5 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 62.4% | 27.3% | 0.7 | 74.7% | 24.1% | |
| 3 | Vince Iwuchukwu | C | Sr | 7'1" | 24-6 | 23.2 | 11.6 | 6.1 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 56.6% | 37.5% | 0.7 | 75.5% | 28.5% | |
| 45 | Kayvaun Mulready | G | So | 6'4" | 32-2 | 16.8 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 52.8% | 34.1% | 2.8 | 72.4% | 20.5% | |
| 0 | Jayden Fort | F | So | 6'9" | 34-1 | 13.6 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 50.6% | 10.0% | 0.3 | 60.0% | 15.7% | |
| 13 | Langston Love | G | Sr | 6'5" | 22-1 | 12.4 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 45.6% | 25.0% | 1.5 | 80.0% | 16.5% | |
| 1 | DeShawn Harris-Smith | G | Jr | 6'5" | 6-0 | 16.7 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 60.0% | 0.0% | 0.3 | 70.0% | 16.7% | |
| 14 | Seal Diouf | C | So | 6'9" | 10-0 | 3.6 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 22.2% | — | 0.0 | 33.3% | 24.1% | |
| 22 | Mason Moses | G | So | 6'6" | 3-0 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3 | 100.0% | 27.4% | |
| 30 | Michael Van Raaphorst | G | So | 6'2" | 3-0 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3 | — | 14.5% | |
| 12 | Austin Montgomery | F | Jr | 6'6" | 1-0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 0.0% | |
| 8 | Gabriel Landeira | G | Fr | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 15 | Hashem Asadallah | G | Jr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Mark Butlerat Lafayette | G | Sr | 5'10" | 32-32 | 33.9 | 10.7 | 2.2 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 43.7% | 25.0% | 0.6 | 76.0% | 20.9% | |
| 22 | Khalil Farmerat UMass Lowell | G | Sr | 6'4" | 33-0 | 14.2 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 43.2% | 32.1% | 1.7 | 61.7% | 18.3% | |
| 55 | Bryce Bakerat Charleston | G | Sr | 6'5" | 8-0 | 13.3 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 26.1% | 10.5% | 2.4 | 50.0% | 14.9% | |
| 23 | Horace Simmons Jr.at Drexel | F | Jr | 6'6" | 13-0 | 6.8 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 32.8% | 18.8% | 1.2 | 75.0% | 22.8% | |
| 5 | Ty Bevinsat G Washington | G | Jr | 6'6" | 10-0 | 7.6 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 42.1% | 26.7% | 1.5 | 75.0% | 17.0% | |
| 13 | Rich Briscoat Akron | F | So | 6'8" | 8-0 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 27.2% | |
| 14 | Kam Wylieat 2598 | F | So | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 24 | Bryce Presley | G | Fr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 11 | JJ Washington | G | Fr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 9 | Mikes Connelly | G | Fr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 3 | Nasir Washington | G | Jr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 2 | Richie Rosa | G | Fr | 6'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 0 | Segun Ezekiel Obe | F | So | 6'10" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 8 | Stephen Avegah Semey | C | Jr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1 | Siena | A | L 61–76 | +14.5 | L−0.5 | 137.5 | U137 | 91.6 | 114.2 | 66.6 |
| Feb 27 | Iona | A | L 58–80 | +11.5 | L−10.5 | 141.0 | U138 | 80.9 | 111.5 | 71.7 |
| Feb 22 | Niagara | H | W 67–62 | +2.0 | W+7.0 | 130.5 | U129 | 103.3 | 95.5 | 64.9 |
| Feb 20 | Canisius | H | L 66–72 | −1.0 | L−7.0 | 131.0 | O138 | 97.8 | 106.7 | 67.5 |
| Feb 15 | Sacred Heart | A | L 75–86 | +9.0 | L−2.0 | 146.5 | O161 | 108.6 | 124.5 | 69.1 |
| Feb 13 | Mount St Marys | H | L 55–65 | +5.0 | L−5.0 | 138.5 | U120 | 84.7 | 100.1 | 64.9 |
| Feb 7 | Merrimack | H | L 47–73 | +8.5 | L−17.5 | 137.5 | U120 | 81.8 | 127.1 | 57.5 |
| Feb 5 | Marist | A | L 52–81 | +14.0 | L−15.0 | 135.5 | U133 | 88.1 | 137.2 | 59.0 |
| Feb 1 | Saint Peter's | H | W 81–78 | +7.5 | W+10.5 | 136.0 | O159 | 124.1 | 119.5 | 65.3 |
| Jan 30 | Manhattan | A | L 90–95 | +6.0 | W+1.0 | 146.0 | O185 | 133.6 | 141.1 | 67.3 |
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 13 | #6UConn | N | L 51–67 | +14.0 | L−2.0 | 139.0 | U118 | 85.7 | 112.6 | 59.5 |
| Mar 12 | Villanova | N | W 78–64 | +6.5 | W+20.5 | 141.0 | O142 | 121.1 | 99.4 | 64.4 |
| Mar 11 | DePaul | N | W 63–56 | +5.0 | W+12.0 | 130.0 | U119 | 100.2 | 89.0 | 62.9 |
| Mar 7 | Providence | H | W 80–79 | −1.0 | P0.0 | 157.0 | O159 | 109.8 | 108.5 | 72.8 |
| Mar 3 | #18St John's | A | L 69–72 | +15.5 | W+12.5 | 148.0 | U141 | 99.2 | 103.5 | 69.6 |
| Feb 28 | Xavier | A | L 84–91 | +4.5 | L−2.5 | 154.0 | O175 | 117.6 | 127.4 | 71.4 |
| Feb 24 | Marquette | H | L 60–76 | −2.5 | L−18.5 | 150.5 | U136 | 92.0 | 116.6 | 65.2 |
| Feb 21 | Seton Hall | A | L 47–51 | +5.5 | W+1.5 | 136.0 | U98 | 74.4 | 80.8 | 63.1 |
| Feb 18 | Butler | H | L 89–93 | −6.0 | L−10.0 | 147.0 | O182 | 130.5 | 136.4 | 68.2 |
| Feb 14 | #6UConn | A | L 75–79 | +17.0 | W+13.0 | 138.5 | O154 | 114.7 | 120.8 | 65.4 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeOffseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input- Flash Burton 32.1 mpg, 15.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Zion Cruz 30.4 mpg, 12.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Caleb Smith 29.8 mpg, 7.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Shemani Fuller 21.4 mpg, 6.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Davis Bynum 18.3 mpg, 5.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Cole McCabe 12.2 mpg, 2.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Mark Butler from Lafayette · 33.9 mpg, 10.7 ppg last season
- Khalil Farmer from UMass Lowell · 14.2 mpg, 3.8 ppg last season
- Bryce Baker from Charleston · 3.3 mpg, 0.4 ppg last season
- Horace Simmons Jr. from Drexel · 2.7 mpg, 0.7 ppg last season
- Ty Bevins from G Washington · 2.2 mpg, 0.5 ppg last season
- Rich Brisco from Akron · 0.7 mpg, 0.3 ppg last season
Returns 0% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Head-to-head
this season and lastThe CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.