CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceBanterra Center, Carbondale, IL

SE Missouri

Efficiency #209

2025-26: 20-13 · 15-7 conf

S Illinois

Efficiency #107

2025-26: 16-16 · 10-11 conf

Wed, Dec 9 · 8:00 PM ET

67.6

win 26%

Projected

75.2

win 74%

No line posted yet.

Model: SIU −7.5 · total 142.8 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: S Illinois 69.4, SE Missouri 69.4 → 70.4 possessions

+4.6

S Illinois offense vs SE Missouri defense

−3.3

SE Missouri offense vs S Illinois defense

−6.7

Projected total

142.8

Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

S Illinois offense vs SE Missouri defense

−3.3

SE Missouri offense vs S Illinois defense

+6.7

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.1

S Illinois by 7.5

7.5

SE Missouri side ◂▸ S Illinois side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help S Illinois.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 70.4, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, SE Missouri is the faster team (69.9, #98 of 365) and S Illinois the slower (69.8, #100). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

70.4

per team, 40 min

Projected total

142.8

model

Projected team totals

67.6 / 75.2

SE Missouri / S Illinois

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

69.4#92

SE Missouri

69.4#91

S Illinois

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

ClashS Illinois

Style match: 3-point volume

S Illinois rarely shoots threes (29.2% of its shots); SE Missouri runs teams off the line (33.2% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 27.2% — both habits push the same way.

AdvantageS Illinois

Where S Illinois struggles: shooting

S Illinois shoots an effective 49.2% (#286); SE Missouri allows 48.8% (#57). Expect about 48.8%, 2.5 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.6 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantageSE Missouri

Where SE Missouri struggles: shooting

SE Missouri shoots an effective 49.8% (#244); S Illinois allows 49.0% (#70). Expect about 49.3%, 2.0 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.8 points per 100 possessions.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (S Illinois, SE Missouri, S Illinois's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect SE Missouri at about 38.0% of its shots from three, S Illinois about 27.2%.

SE Missouri has the ball

OffenseS Illinois allowsvs D1 avg

49.8% #244

49.0% #70

-2.8 pt/100

16.9% #192

18.5% #75

-1.4 pt/100

29.6% #218

27.3% #44

-1.3 pt/100

38.8% #84

31.4% #95

-0.0 pt/100

69.5% #281

—

-0.3 pt/100

SE Missouri net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -5.8 pts/100

S Illinois has the ball

OffenseSE Missouri allowsvs D1 avg

49.2% #286

48.8% #57

-3.6 pt/100

17.0% #207

18.1% #91

-1.2 pt/100

30.9% #167

28.2% #76

-0.4 pt/100

31.3% #275

48.0% #361

+0.7 pt/100

68.3% #321

—

-0.4 pt/100

S Illinois net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -4.8 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

SE Missourioffense vsS Illinoisdefense

Share of shots by zone

SE Missouri shoots

43.5

6.5

14.5

35.5

S Illinois allows

35.9

6.1

16.5

41.5

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	58.7%#168	58.1%#148	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	34.7%#292	36.2%#93	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	34.8%#295	42.4%#315	38.0%
Three	30.9%#324	30.4%#17	33.7%

S Illinoisoffense vsSE Missouridefense

Share of shots by zone

S Illinois shoots

40.7

7.4

23.0

28.9

SE Missouri allows

40.5

9.7

17.0

32.7

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	58.7%#169	53.5%#30	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	43.9%#81	36.6%#104	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	42.0%#57	41.9%#299	38.0%
Three	27.8%#363	33.1%#130	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

SE Missouri

−0.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#224 of 365

Off reb %

29.6%

#218

Def reb %

71.8%

#76

Turnover %

16.9%

#192

Forced TO %

18.1%

#91

FT rate

38.8%

#84

FT allowed

48.0%

#361

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.3

Defensive rebounding+0.8

Ball security−0.1

Forcing turnovers+1.0

Foul shots drawn+1.0

Foul shots allowed−3.3

S Illinois

+2.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#81 of 365

Off reb %

30.9%

#167

Def reb %

72.7%

#44

Turnover %

17.0%

#207

Forced TO %

18.5%

#75

FT rate

31.3%

#275

FT allowed

31.4%

#95

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.2

Defensive rebounding+1.1

Ball security−0.2

Forcing turnovers+1.2

Foul shots drawn−1.0

Foul shots allowed+1.0

S Illinois has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.3 (#81 of 365) to SE Missouri’s −0.9 (#224).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

SE Missouri2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted SE Missouri's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
2	BJ Ward	G	Jr	6'0"	33-33	30.2	10.9	2.1	3.7	2.0	46.4%	35.0%	4.3	81.0%	24.3%
44	Braxton Stacker	G	Sr	6'5"	33-33	28.2	11.8	3.4	1.4	1.4	48.7%	31.9%	4.4	80.3%	24.6%
10	Luke Almodovar	G	Jr	6'3"	33-23	27.0	14.1	3.7	0.7	1.0	51.5%	31.6%	6.3	76.0%	28.8%
15	Brendan Terry	F	Sr	6'7"	33-24	25.1	11.3	5.3	2.0	1.8	55.8%	34.6%	0.8	61.5%	26.6%
55	Marqueas Bell	G	Jr	6'3"	33-10	22.1	9.1	5.2	1.8	1.4	53.5%	30.8%	0.4	73.9%	23.6%
7	Landren Blocker	G	So	6'5"	33-28	17.8	5.2	3.8	0.5	0.8	54.5%	41.7%	0.7	48.2%	18.1%
4	Troy Cole Jr.	G	Sr	6'4"	33-4	13.5	4.2	2.3	0.6	0.8	43.4%	7.0%	1.3	68.3%	21.6%
18	David Idada	C	Sr	7'0"	33-10	10.7	1.8	2.5	0.3	0.5	54.8%	—	0.0	54.3%	10.8%
1	PJ Farmer	G	Fr	6'2"	32-0	9.3	1.9	1.4	1.0	0.8	43.1%	10.5%	0.6	58.8%	17.1%
9	Blaize Sagna	G	Sr	6'3"	27-0	8.9	1.5	1.0	0.4	0.3	41.9%	25.0%	1.0	90.0%	11.7%
30	Elliot Lowndes	F	Sr	7'0"	32-0	7.1	2.5	1.3	0.2	0.3	58.5%	34.3%	1.1	50.0%	19.3%
25	Jay Reynolds	G	Fr	6'3"	10-0	5.2	1.2	0.3	0.1	0.2	28.9%	20.0%	1.5	50.0%	22.8%
3	Trace Sadler	F	Fr	7'1"	12-0	4.0	1.0	0.4	0.0	0.2	85.7%	—	0.0	0.0%	10.7%
22	Saxton Hoepker	F	Sr	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

S Illinois2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
2	Quel'Ron House	G	So	6'0"	30-28	30.1	15.2	3.4	3.3	2.3	48.3%	25.5%	1.8	75.0%	32.3%
10	Damien Mayo Jr.	G	Sr	6'3"	31-25	25.4	9.1	2.9	2.3	1.3	53.5%	37.1%	3.1	78.4%	21.1%
0	Rolyns Aligbe	F	So	6'9"	32-32	24.4	9.5	7.4	0.7	1.2	51.6%	34.8%	2.2	66.2%	23.4%
5	Jalen Haynes	G	Fr	6'4"	32-7	20.8	7.9	2.4	2.1	1.4	46.3%	20.5%	2.4	78.2%	24.9%
8	Prince Aligbe	F	Sr	6'7"	30-29	22.1	7.2	5.3	0.7	1.5	44.5%	0.0%	0.6	56.1%	23.8%
4	Davion Sykes	G	Sr	6'6"	32-3	19.0	7.1	4.4	0.8	1.0	52.2%	0.0%	0.3	71.4%	22.5%
9	Isaiah Stafford	G	Sr	6'2"	16-4	19.1	7.3	2.6	0.9	0.9	43.4%	20.4%	3.1	75.8%	25.0%
35	Max Pikaar	F	So	7'0"	27-0	10.8	1.9	2.1	0.3	0.5	41.5%	25.9%	1.0	61.1%	13.4%
25	Jorge Moreno	F	Sr	6'11"	25-0	10.8	2.8	3.0	0.5	0.8	64.4%	—	0.0	41.9%	16.5%
33	Jaheem Webber	C	Fr	6'10"	19-0	7.0	1.4	1.7	0.3	0.2	63.2%	—	0.0	25.0%	11.7%
3	Caden Hawkins	G	Jr	6'0"	15-0	5.3	1.2	0.4	0.5	0.3	50.0%	36.4%	0.7	44.4%	16.1%
7	Daniel Pauliukonis	F	Fr	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
14	Luke Walsh	G	Fr	6'2"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

SE Missouri2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted SE Missouri's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
2	BJ Ward	G	Jr	6'0"	33-33	30.2	10.9	2.1	3.7	2.0	46.4%	35.0%	4.3	81.0%	24.3%
44	Braxton Stacker	G	Sr	6'5"	33-33	28.2	11.8	3.4	1.4	1.4	48.7%	31.9%	4.4	80.3%	24.6%
10	Luke Almodovar	G	Jr	6'3"	33-23	27.0	14.1	3.7	0.7	1.0	51.5%	31.6%	6.3	76.0%	28.8%
15	Brendan Terry	F	Sr	6'7"	33-24	25.1	11.3	5.3	2.0	1.8	55.8%	34.6%	0.8	61.5%	26.6%
55	Marqueas Bell	G	Jr	6'3"	33-10	22.1	9.1	5.2	1.8	1.4	53.5%	30.8%	0.4	73.9%	23.6%
7	Landren Blocker	G	So	6'5"	33-28	17.8	5.2	3.8	0.5	0.8	54.5%	41.7%	0.7	48.2%	18.1%
4	Troy Cole Jr.	G	Sr	6'4"	33-4	13.5	4.2	2.3	0.6	0.8	43.4%	7.0%	1.3	68.3%	21.6%
18	David Idada	C	Sr	7'0"	33-10	10.7	1.8	2.5	0.3	0.5	54.8%	—	0.0	54.3%	10.8%
1	PJ Farmer	G	Fr	6'2"	32-0	9.3	1.9	1.4	1.0	0.8	43.1%	10.5%	0.6	58.8%	17.1%
9	Blaize Sagna	G	Sr	6'3"	27-0	8.9	1.5	1.0	0.4	0.3	41.9%	25.0%	1.0	90.0%	11.7%
30	Elliot Lowndes	F	Sr	7'0"	32-0	7.1	2.5	1.3	0.2	0.3	58.5%	34.3%	1.1	50.0%	19.3%
25	Jay Reynolds	G	Fr	6'3"	10-0	5.2	1.2	0.3	0.1	0.2	28.9%	20.0%	1.5	50.0%	22.8%
3	Trace Sadler	F	Fr	7'1"	12-0	4.0	1.0	0.4	0.0	0.2	85.7%	—	0.0	0.0%	10.7%
22	Saxton Hoepker	F	Sr	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

SE Missouri

Against the spread

Season

13-16-1

Home

5-7

Road

7-7-1

Last 10

6-4

avg cover +0.8

Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 4 of 8 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

13-17

Home

6-6

Road

7-8

Last 10

3-7

avg vs total −5.5

Under 2 straightOver in 3 of 8 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 6	Morehead StAdjEM #266	N	L 61–66	−4.0	L−9.0	139.5	U127	94.4	102.1	64.6
Mar 5	LindenwoodAdjEM #244	N	W 68–66	−3.0	L−1.0	149.0	U134	100.1	97.2	67.9
Feb 28	Tennessee TechAdjEM #298	H	W 89–73	−7.5	W+8.5	142.0	O162	130.8	107.3	68.1
Feb 26	Tennessee StAdjEM #155	H	L 71–79	−3.5	L−11.5	152.0	U150	96.4	107.3	73.6
Feb 21	Little RockAdjEM #300	A	W 70–65	−2.5	W+2.5	144.0	U135	102.6	95.3	68.2
Feb 17	UT MartinAdjEM #182	A	W 56–53 OT	+2.5	W+5.5	138.5	U109	78.4	74.2	71.5
Feb 14	LindenwoodAdjEM #244	A	W 73–61	+2.0	W+14.0	156.5	U134	100.8	84.2	72.4
Feb 12	SIUEAdjEM #229	A	L 56–74	−1.0	L−19.0	137.5	U130	85.4	112.8	65.6
Feb 7	S IndianaAdjEM #333	H	W 90–65	−11.0	W+14.0	140.5	O155	133.2	96.2	67.6
Feb 5	Morehead StAdjEM #266	H	W 82–70	−7.5	W+4.5	144.0	O152	117.1	99.9	70.1

S Illinois

Against the spread

Season

16-15

Home

5-8

Road

10-5

Last 10

7-3

avg cover +3.0

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 5 of 7 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

9-22

Home

4-9

Road

5-10

Last 10

3-7

avg vs total −10.8

Under in the last gameOver in 2 of 7 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 5	DrakeAdjEM #210	N	L 63–67	−4.5	L−8.5	138.0	U130	97.8	104.0	64.4
Mar 1	EvansvilleAdjEM #327	A	W 81–67	−9.0	W+5.0	139.5	O148	126.8	104.9	63.9
Feb 25	Indiana StAdjEM #213	H	W 66–55	−8.0	W+3.0	149.0	U121	93.4	77.8	70.7
Feb 21	Northern IowaAdjEM #64	A	W 59–57	+6.5	W+8.5	134.5	U116	96.2	92.9	61.3
Feb 18	DrakeAdjEM #210	A	W 66–61	−1.5	W+3.5	150.0	U127	93.5	86.4	70.6
Feb 15	BradleyAdjEM #117	H	L 60–70	−2.5	L−12.5	147.0	U130	86.8	101.2	69.2
Feb 12	EvansvilleAdjEM #327	H	W 86–60	−12.0	W+14.0	142.5	O146	126.4	88.2	68.1
Feb 9	Indiana StAdjEM #213	A	W 80–65	−1.5	W+13.5	147.5	U145	107.2	87.1	74.7
Feb 6	Murray StAdjEM #108	H	L 81–91	+1.0	L−9.0	158.0	O172	110.8	124.4	73.1
Feb 3	Illinois StAdjEM #80	A	W 54–50	+9.0	W+13.0	141.5	U104	79.5	73.6	67.9

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

SE MissouriS Illinois

Efficiency

105.2

105.5

106.8

102.2

69.4

—

Shooting

49.8%

49.2%

51.8%

52.2%

30.9%

27.8%

69.5%

68.3%

38.8%

31.3%

Ball control & glass

16.9%

17.0%

18.1%

18.5%

29.6%

30.9%

28.2%

27.3%

9.9%

9.7%

9.5%

8.5%

Style

36.0%

29.2%

46.3%

52.3%

14.1%

15.8%

45.7%

48.6%

37.9%

33.2%

Roster

3.25

2.83

6'4.4"

6'5.2"

—

84.8%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

SE Missouri

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted SE Missouri's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

S Illinois

Returning minutes: 84.8%Returning production: 87.9%

Lost

Drew Steffe 30.8 mpg, 9.9 ppg · transferred to Buffalo

Added

Daniel Pauliukonis no D1 minutes last season
Luke Walsh no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 85% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.