CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceUniversity Credit Union Pavilion, Moraga, CA

New Mexico St

Efficiency #178

2025-26: 16-16 · 9-13 conf

Saint Mary's

Efficiency #23

2025-26: 27-6 · 16-3 conf

Wed, Dec 9 · TBD

65.1

win 13%

Projected

78.3

win 87%

No line posted yet.

Model: SMC −13.3 · total 143.4 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Saint Mary's 66.7, New Mexico St 67.8 → 66.2 possessions

−4.5

Saint Mary's offense vs New Mexico St defense

+4.5

New Mexico St offense vs Saint Mary's defense

−4.9

Projected total

143.4

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Saint Mary's offense vs New Mexico St defense

+4.5

New Mexico St offense vs Saint Mary's defense

+4.9

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.8

Saint Mary's by 13.3

13.3

New Mexico St side ◂▸ Saint Mary's side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 143.3 against a projected 143.4, and the margin steps add to +13.2 against +13.3. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Saint Mary's.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 66.2, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, New Mexico St is the faster team (67.3, #233 of 365) and Saint Mary's the slower (66.2, #288). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

66.2

per team, 40 min

Projected total

143.4

model

Projected team totals

65.1 / 78.3

New Mexico St / Saint Mary's

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

67.8#224

New Mexico St

66.7#305

Saint Mary's

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageNew Mexico St

Where New Mexico St struggles: shooting

New Mexico St shoots an effective 48.5% (#302); Saint Mary's allows 46.8% (#19). Expect about 47.4%, 3.9 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -5.5 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantageSaint Mary's

Where Saint Mary's scores: the offensive glass

Saint Mary's rebounds 37.5% of its own misses (#11); New Mexico St lets opponents grab 30.3% of their own misses (#175). Expect about 35.3%, 4.9 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.0 points per 100 possessions.

TurnoversNew Mexico St

New Mexico St protects the ball

Projected turnover rate of 14.8% is worth roughly +2.4 points per 100 possessions for New Mexico St's offense.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Saint Mary's, Saint Mary's's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect New Mexico St at about 37.3% of its shots from three, Saint Mary's about 38.2%.

TurnoversSaint Mary's

Saint Mary's protects the ball

Projected turnover rate of 15.5% is worth roughly +1.6 points per 100 possessions for Saint Mary's's offense.

ClashSaint Mary's

Style clash: ball movement

Saint Mary's assists on 57.8% of its made baskets; New Mexico St breaks up passing offenses (assists on 47.8% allowed) (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 52.9% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.65 vs 0.65).

New Mexico St has the ball

OffenseSaint Mary's allowsvs D1 avg

48.5% #302

46.8% #19

-5.5 pt/100

15.0% #68

15.2% #270

+2.4 pt/100

32.5% #105

23.9% #4

-1.0 pt/100

34.9% #186

25.7% #12

-0.7 pt/100

73.5% #153

—

+0.1 pt/100

New Mexico St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -4.7 pts/100

Saint Mary's has the ball

OffenseNew Mexico St allowsvs D1 avg

52.8% #109

48.7% #52

-0.6 pt/100

16.8% #189

14.7% #313

+1.6 pt/100

37.5% #11

30.3% #175

+3.0 pt/100

35.5% #162

44.2% #346

+0.7 pt/100

80.3% #2

—

+0.7 pt/100

Saint Mary's net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +5.4 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

New Mexico Stoffense vsSaint Mary'sdefense

Share of shots by zone

New Mexico St shoots

32.3

7.7

20.9

39.1

Saint Mary's allows

36.6

7.7

18.7

37.0

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	56.0%#272	54.4%#47	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	40.5%#165	46.4%#324	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	39.6%#127	33.7%#43	38.0%
Three	32.4%#257	31.3%#40	33.7%

Saint Mary'soffense vsNew Mexico Stdefense

Share of shots by zone

Saint Mary's shoots

37.5

7.8

17.6

37.0

New Mexico St allows

36.4

9.5

13.0

41.1

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	57.4%#215	58.8%#180	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	42.2%#117	37.1%#113	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	36.5%#253	27.5%#2	38.0%
Three	38.7%#7	32.4%#83	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

New Mexico St

−1.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#262 of 365

Off reb %

32.5%

#105

Def reb %

69.7%

#175

Turnover %

15.0%

#68

Forced TO %

14.7%

#313

FT rate

34.9%

#186

FT allowed

44.2%

#346

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.7

Defensive rebounding+0.1

Ball security+1.2

Forcing turnovers−1.4

Foul shots drawn0.0

Foul shots allowed−2.3

Saint Mary's

+6.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#13 of 365

Off reb %

37.5%

#11

Def reb %

76.1%

Turnover %

16.8%

#189

Forced TO %

15.2%

#270

FT rate

35.5%

#162

FT allowed

25.7%

#12

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+2.3

Defensive rebounding+2.2

Ball security0.0

Forcing turnovers−1.0

Foul shots drawn+0.1

Foul shots allowed+2.4

Saint Mary's has more extra scoring chances per game: +6.0 (#13 of 365) to New Mexico St’s −1.7 (#262).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

New Mexico St2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted New Mexico St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
21	Jemel Jones	G	Sr	6'4"	32-30	28.4	17.8	4.4	2.4	1.4	48.4%	37.2%	4.3	83.5%	36.9%
0	Julius Mims	F	Sr	6'9"	31-31	27.5	10.6	8.4	0.6	1.0	59.7%	31.3%	1.0	64.6%	20.9%
9	Anthony Wrzeszcz	G	Sr	6'4"	32-26	24.6	7.4	2.1	1.0	0.7	49.5%	32.9%	5.2	85.0%	18.6%
4	Jae'Coby Osborne	F	So	6'6"	32-20	23.3	6.0	4.9	0.6	0.8	55.9%	15.8%	0.6	59.3%	15.3%
1	Gabe Pickens	G	So	6'0"	31-24	20.8	4.5	1.6	3.0	1.7	42.5%	28.6%	1.6	66.0%	18.3%
8	Jayland Randall	G	Sr	6'5"	32-1	19.9	8.9	3.1	0.7	0.6	44.4%	31.3%	4.0	82.9%	27.6%
11	Elijah Elliott	G	Sr	6'1"	31-7	18.6	8.3	1.9	2.3	1.3	41.6%	31.6%	3.7	77.1%	31.6%
5	Chris Terrell	G	Sr	6'0"	31-1	12.8	4.2	1.5	1.9	0.8	51.4%	43.2%	1.4	78.3%	21.4%
3	Kyrese Mullen	F	Sr	6'7"	26-4	14.0	3.8	3.8	0.4	1.0	38.8%	26.5%	1.3	58.0%	22.1%
24	Cyr Malonga	C	Jr	6'11"	24-16	11.6	3.7	2.5	0.2	0.7	67.3%	—	0.0	47.8%	17.8%
44	Augustine Ekwe	C	Fr	6'9"	23-0	10.4	2.7	2.4	0.2	0.6	57.4%	—	0.0	81.8%	16.3%
12	Christian Villegas	G	Sr	6'2"	5-0	3.4	0.8	0.6	0.2	0.4	21.4%	20.0%	1.0	50.0%	31.6%
20	Amarco Doyle	F	So	6'7"	3-0	5.0	3.0	1.7	0.0	0.7	50.0%	33.3%	3.0	—	39.9%
7	Teysean Eaglestaff	F	So	6'7"	4-0	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.5	—	21.2%
2	Omarr Smith	G	Fr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Saint Mary's2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
7	Joshua Dent	G	So	6'3"	33-33	36.2	13.2	2.5	5.6	2.3	56.7%	40.4%	4.6	91.8%	21.7%
23	Paulius Murauskas	F	Jr	6'8"	33-32	32.2	18.4	7.6	2.1	1.8	52.5%	33.3%	3.3	84.0%	32.7%
11	Dillan Shaw	G	Fr	6'7"	33-22	27.5	7.5	5.4	1.5	1.0	55.7%	41.6%	3.8	69.7%	17.0%
0	Mikey Lewis	G	So	6'3"	33-33	26.8	13.9	2.7	2.1	1.4	48.6%	36.8%	5.6	88.2%	33.0%
45	Andrew McKeever	C	So	7'2"	33-10	23.1	8.2	9.2	1.8	1.7	50.0%	—	0.0	62.8%	24.8%
33	Liam Campbell	G	Fr	6'4"	33-0	14.7	4.9	1.8	0.5	0.5	63.7%	52.0%	1.5	80.0%	16.9%
8	Rory Hawke	G	Fr	6'5"	31-4	11.0	2.5	1.2	0.4	0.5	54.7%	22.2%	0.6	78.3%	14.3%
6	Mantas Juzenas	G	Fr	6'6"	26-1	5.8	2.1	1.4	0.3	0.3	66.2%	48.4%	1.2	55.6%	19.5%
2	Tony Duckett	G	So	6'4"	20-0	7.3	3.5	0.5	0.5	0.4	45.1%	30.8%	0.7	92.0%	29.4%
24	Kevin Gad	F	Jr	6'6"	7-7	10.1	1.4	1.3	0.7	0.1	45.5%	33.3%	0.9	—	10.0%
22	Cade Bennett	G	Jr	6'0"	8-0	4.5	1.0	1.0	0.5	0.1	60.0%	40.0%	0.6	50.0%	12.9%
14	Oliver Faubert	F	Fr	6'8"	11-0	1.9	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.1	33.3%	—	0.0	—	11.5%
32	Jazz Gardner	C	Jr	7'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
42	Trent MacLean	F	Fr	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

New Mexico St2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted New Mexico St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
21	Jemel Jones	G	Sr	6'4"	32-30	28.4	17.8	4.4	2.4	1.4	48.4%	37.2%	4.3	83.5%	36.9%
0	Julius Mims	F	Sr	6'9"	31-31	27.5	10.6	8.4	0.6	1.0	59.7%	31.3%	1.0	64.6%	20.9%
9	Anthony Wrzeszcz	G	Sr	6'4"	32-26	24.6	7.4	2.1	1.0	0.7	49.5%	32.9%	5.2	85.0%	18.6%
4	Jae'Coby Osborne	F	So	6'6"	32-20	23.3	6.0	4.9	0.6	0.8	55.9%	15.8%	0.6	59.3%	15.3%
1	Gabe Pickens	G	So	6'0"	31-24	20.8	4.5	1.6	3.0	1.7	42.5%	28.6%	1.6	66.0%	18.3%
8	Jayland Randall	G	Sr	6'5"	32-1	19.9	8.9	3.1	0.7	0.6	44.4%	31.3%	4.0	82.9%	27.6%
11	Elijah Elliott	G	Sr	6'1"	31-7	18.6	8.3	1.9	2.3	1.3	41.6%	31.6%	3.7	77.1%	31.6%
5	Chris Terrell	G	Sr	6'0"	31-1	12.8	4.2	1.5	1.9	0.8	51.4%	43.2%	1.4	78.3%	21.4%
3	Kyrese Mullen	F	Sr	6'7"	26-4	14.0	3.8	3.8	0.4	1.0	38.8%	26.5%	1.3	58.0%	22.1%
24	Cyr Malonga	C	Jr	6'11"	24-16	11.6	3.7	2.5	0.2	0.7	67.3%	—	0.0	47.8%	17.8%
44	Augustine Ekwe	C	Fr	6'9"	23-0	10.4	2.7	2.4	0.2	0.6	57.4%	—	0.0	81.8%	16.3%
12	Christian Villegas	G	Sr	6'2"	5-0	3.4	0.8	0.6	0.2	0.4	21.4%	20.0%	1.0	50.0%	31.6%
20	Amarco Doyle	F	So	6'7"	3-0	5.0	3.0	1.7	0.0	0.7	50.0%	33.3%	3.0	—	39.9%
7	Teysean Eaglestaff	F	So	6'7"	4-0	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.5	—	21.2%
2	Omarr Smith	G	Fr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

New Mexico St

Against the spread

Season

14-15

Home

6-6

Road

5-6

Last 10

5-5

avg cover −0.9

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 2 of 5 as a favoriteCovered 3 of 5 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

17-12

Home

7-5

Road

8-3

Last 10

6-4

avg vs total +4.7

Under 3 straightOver in 2 of 5 as a favoriteOver in 4 of 5 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 11	Sam HoustonAdjEM #101	N	L 61–69	+4.5	L−3.5	155.0	U130	85.3	96.5	71.5
Mar 10	Jax StateAdjEM #215	N	W 68–63	−1.5	W+3.5	142.0	U131	105.9	98.1	64.2
Mar 7	Kennesaw StAdjEM #154	H	W 79–76	−1.0	W+2.0	157.5	U155	116.9	112.5	67.6
Mar 5	Jax StateAdjEM #215	H	W 77–75 OT	−6.0	L−4.0	145.5	O152	101.5	98.8	75.9
Feb 28	MTSUAdjEM #167	A	L 85–86 OT	+5.5	W+4.5	148.0	O171	113.0	114.3	75.2
Feb 26	Western KYAdjEM #159	A	L 70–93	+5.5	L−17.5	151.5	O163	88.7	117.8	78.9
Feb 21	UTEPAdjEM #279	H	W 67–63	−7.0	L−3.0	143.0	U130	115.0	108.2	58.3
Feb 14	Jax StateAdjEM #215	A	W 79–70	+2.5	W+11.5	140.5	O149	119.9	106.3	65.9
Feb 11	LibertyAdjEM #103	H	L 75–77	+3.5	W+1.5	144.0	O152	111.4	114.4	67.3
Feb 7	UTEPAdjEM #279	A	L 88–91 OT	−1.5	L−4.5	138.0	O179	108.0	111.7	81.5

Saint Mary's

Against the spread

Season

19-13

Home

12-4

Road

6-4

Last 10

7-3

avg cover +3.0

Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 6 of 9 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

12-18-2

Home

7-7-2

Road

4-6

Last 10

3-7

avg vs total −5.3

Under 4 straightOver in 3 of 9 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 19	#10Texas A&MAdjEM #43	N	L 50–63	−2.5	L−15.5	148.5	U113	84.5	106.4	59.2
Mar 9	Santa ClaraAdjEM #33	N	L 71–76	−4.5	L−9.5	150.0	U147	114.8	122.9	61.8
Feb 28	#9GonzagaAdjEM #8	H	W 70–59	+2.5	W+13.5	143.0	U129	109.4	92.2	64.0
Feb 25	Santa ClaraAdjEM #33	H	W 86–67	−5.5	W+13.5	154.0	U153	131.5	102.4	65.4
Feb 21	Washington StAdjEM #174	A	W 83–67	−8.5	W+7.5	148.5	O150	131.9	106.5	62.9
Feb 18	Seattle UAdjEM #125	A	W 72–70	−9.5	L−7.5	133.0	O142	98.4	95.7	73.1
Feb 14	PacificAdjEM #126	A	W 72–61	−7.0	W+4.0	135.5	U133	113.5	96.2	63.4
Feb 11	PepperdineAdjEM #307	H	W 88–60	−24.5	W+3.5	144.0	O148	122.9	83.8	71.6
Feb 7	San FranciscoAdjEM #148	H	W 79–54	−11.5	W+13.5	143.0	U133	123.1	84.1	64.2
Feb 4	San DiegoAdjEM #269	H	W 87–60	−19.5	W+7.5	149.0	U147	136.3	94.0	63.8

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

New Mexico StSaint Mary's

Efficiency

108.7

114.9

108.9

100.8

67.8

66.7

—

Shooting

48.5%

52.8%

48.5%

49.8%

32.4%

38.7%

73.5%

80.3%

34.9%

35.5%

Ball control & glass

15.0%

16.8%

14.7%

15.2%

32.5%

37.5%

30.3%

23.9%

9.0%

8.4%

8.1%

8.8%

Style

38.7%

36.4%

38.3%

40.9%

15.2%

10.5%

49.3%

57.8%

37.6%

29.3%

Roster

3.41

1.88

6'4.7"

6'6.2"

—

91.9%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

New Mexico St

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted New Mexico St's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Saint Mary's

Returning minutes: 91.9%Returning production: 91.8%

Lost

Harry Wessels 16.2 mpg, 4.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Trent MacLean no D1 minutes last season
Jazz Gardner no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 92% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.