CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceMVP Arena, Albany, NY
St Bonaventure
Efficiency #138
2025-26: 17-17 · 6-15 conf
@
Siena
Efficiency #134
2025-26: 23-12 · 16-7 conf
Wed, Dec 9 · TBD
70.9
win 37%
Projected
74.9
win 63%
No line posted yet.
Model: SIE −4.0 · total 145.8 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Siena 66.4, St Bonaventure 68.2 → 66.3 possessions
−4.4
Siena offense vs St Bonaventure defense
+1.1
St Bonaventure offense vs Siena defense
+0.9
Projected total
145.8
Axis starts at 142 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Siena offense vs St Bonaventure defense
+1.1
St Bonaventure offense vs Siena defense
−0.9
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.8
Siena by 4.0
4.0
St Bonaventure side ◂▸ Siena side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Siena.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 66.3, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, St Bonaventure is the faster team (67.5, #222 of 365) and Siena the slower (64.2, #350). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
66.3
per team, 40 min
Projected total
145.8
model
Projected team totals
70.9 / 74.9
St Bonaventure / Siena
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
68.2#194
St Bonaventure
66.4#322
Siena
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetPace
Half-court grind
Siena averages 64.2 possessions per 40, St Bonaventure 67.5. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 65 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
DefenseSt Bonaventure
St Bonaventure's shot-blocking
St Bonaventure ranks #24 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 12.0% of Siena's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Siena, St Bonaventure) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect St Bonaventure at about 32.9% of its shots from three, Siena about 34.4%.
St Bonaventure has the ball
OffenseSiena allowsvs D1 avg
52.4% #129
48.5% #48
-1.1 pt/100
16.8% #191
17.0% #152
-0.2 pt/100
34.5% #60
29.5% #133
+1.5 pt/100
30.0% #310
27.5% #27
-0.9 pt/100
74.7% #98
—
+0.2 pt/100
St Bonaventure net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -0.5 pts/100
Siena has the ball
OffenseSt Bonaventure allowsvs D1 avg
50.4% #222
53.3% #278
+0.7 pt/100
15.8% #126
17.1% #146
+0.4 pt/100
31.8% #133
29.8% #150
+0.4 pt/100
33.4% #226
33.9% #147
-0.2 pt/100
77.1% #32
—
+0.4 pt/100
Siena net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.8 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersSt Bonaventureoffense vsSienadefense
Share of shots by zone
St Bonaventure shoots
38.1
8.8
22.0
31.1
Siena allows
36.8
4.8
19.2
39.2
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 58.2%#186 | 53.4%#29 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 44.6%#71 | 44.7%#287 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 38.6%#163 | 39.7%#232 | 38.0% |
| Three | 37.4%#22 | 32.3%#82 | 33.7% |
Sienaoffense vsSt Bonaventuredefense
Share of shots by zone
Siena shoots
40.8
5.5
22.2
31.6
St Bonaventure allows
39.8
5.3
14.6
40.3
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 57.7%#206 | 57.6%#135 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 46.5%#46 | 31.9%#21 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 44.1%#23 | 45.6%#353 | 38.0% |
| Three | 30.6%#330 | 36.0%#299 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersSt Bonaventure
+0.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#147 of 365
Off reb %
34.5%
#60
Def reb %
70.2%
#150
Turnover %
16.8%
#191
Forced TO %
17.1%
#146
FT rate
30.0%
#310
FT allowed
33.9%
#147
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.3
Defensive rebounding+0.3
Ball security0.0
Forcing turnovers+0.2
Foul shots drawn−1.3
Foul shots allowed+0.3
Siena
+3.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#50 of 365
Off reb %
31.8%
#133
Def reb %
70.5%
#133
Turnover %
15.8%
#126
Forced TO %
17.0%
#152
FT rate
33.4%
#226
FT allowed
27.5%
#27
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.5
Defensive rebounding+0.4
Ball security+0.6
Forcing turnovers+0.2
Foul shots drawn−0.4
Foul shots allowed+2.0
Siena has more extra scoring chances per game: +3.2 (#50 of 365) to St Bonaventure’s +0.8 (#147).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
St Bonaventure2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Darryl Simmons II | G | Jr | 5'11" | 34-33 | 35.5 | 16.4 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 54.5% | 42.5% | 6.5 | 89.9% | 26.2% | |
| 00 | Frank Mitchell | F | Sr | 6'8" | 34-33 | 33.6 | 16.3 | 10.2 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 55.6% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 60.9% | 30.1% | |
| 5 | Dasonte Bowen | G | Sr | 6'2" | 33-33 | 34.3 | 10.9 | 3.0 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 44.2% | 32.7% | 1.7 | 85.2% | 22.1% | |
| 24 | Cayden Charles | G | Sr | 6'3" | 34-34 | 33.3 | 12.9 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 48.6% | 32.6% | 2.6 | 79.4% | 23.3% | |
| 3 | Daniel Egbuniwe | F | Sr | 6'7" | 31-19 | 23.1 | 8.2 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 54.3% | 39.7% | 3.9 | 74.0% | 21.3% | |
| 32 | Joe Grahovac | F | So | 6'10" | 34-14 | 18.3 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 56.9% | 36.4% | 1.9 | 87.5% | 14.8% | |
| 20 | Achille Lonati | G | Fr | 6'5" | 29-1 | 8.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 46.4% | 25.5% | 1.8 | 61.5% | 21.9% | |
| 2 | Amar'e Marshall | G | Sr | 6'4" | 11-0 | 13.2 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 56.1% | 33.3% | 1.6 | 60.0% | 21.8% | |
| 1 | Ilia Ermakov | G | Fr | 6'5" | 9-0 | 11.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 59.1% | 42.9% | 1.6 | 0.0% | 20.0% | |
| 30 | Broek Ostrom | G | Sr | 6'2" | 4-1 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 0.5 | 0.0% | 29.7% | |
| 15 | Jack DeRose | G | Jr | 6'0" | 3-0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 75.0% | 50.0% | 0.7 | — | 39.7% | |
| 21 | Xander Wedlow | C | So | 6'10" | 2-0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 29.1% | |
| 7 | Brayden Jackson | G | So | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 4 | John Ikpotokin | F | Fr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Siena2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Brendan Coyle | G | Sr | 6'7" | 35-35 | 30.5 | 8.7 | 4.6 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 46.8% | 30.0% | 6.8 | 82.1% | 19.8% | |
| 30 | Tan Yildizogluat VMI | G | Sr | 6'4" | 31-31 | 31.1 | 10.2 | 3.6 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 45.4% | 27.1% | 3.8 | 63.3% | 24.5% | |
| 2 | Isaiah Henderson | G | So | 6'6" | 28-1 | 13.8 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 47.1% | 30.4% | 2.5 | 75.8% | 18.8% | |
| 11 | Owen Schlager | G | So | 6'3" | 5-0 | 10.0 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 31.8% | 14.3% | 1.4 | 70.0% | 27.5% | |
| 33 | Chris Torres | G | Jr | 6'2" | 4-0 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 25.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 24.4% | |
| 12 | Reid Ducharme | G | Jr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 9 | Andrs Amn | G | Fr | 7'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 1 | Angelos Bratakos | G | Jr | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 8 | Mana Martin | G | Fr | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 22 | Pace Prosser | G | Jr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 3 | Parrish Edmond Jr. | G | Fr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 94 | Paul Lambert | G | Fr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 0 | Sei'Mir Roberson | G | Fr | 6'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 13 | Tim Ibukunoluwa | G | Fr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 5 | Trent Egbiremolen | G | Fr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 77 | Yannis Steger | G | Fr | 6'10" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Transfers in: Tan Yildizoglu (from VMI)
St Bonaventure2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Darryl Simmons II | G | Jr | 5'11" | 34-33 | 35.5 | 16.4 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 54.5% | 42.5% | 6.5 | 89.9% | 26.2% | |
| 00 | Frank Mitchell | F | Sr | 6'8" | 34-33 | 33.6 | 16.3 | 10.2 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 55.6% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 60.9% | 30.1% | |
| 5 | Dasonte Bowen | G | Sr | 6'2" | 33-33 | 34.3 | 10.9 | 3.0 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 44.2% | 32.7% | 1.7 | 85.2% | 22.1% | |
| 24 | Cayden Charles | G | Sr | 6'3" | 34-34 | 33.3 | 12.9 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 48.6% | 32.6% | 2.6 | 79.4% | 23.3% | |
| 3 | Daniel Egbuniwe | F | Sr | 6'7" | 31-19 | 23.1 | 8.2 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 54.3% | 39.7% | 3.9 | 74.0% | 21.3% | |
| 32 | Joe Grahovac | F | So | 6'10" | 34-14 | 18.3 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 56.9% | 36.4% | 1.9 | 87.5% | 14.8% | |
| 20 | Achille Lonati | G | Fr | 6'5" | 29-1 | 8.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 46.4% | 25.5% | 1.8 | 61.5% | 21.9% | |
| 2 | Amar'e Marshall | G | Sr | 6'4" | 11-0 | 13.2 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 56.1% | 33.3% | 1.6 | 60.0% | 21.8% | |
| 1 | Ilia Ermakov | G | Fr | 6'5" | 9-0 | 11.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 59.1% | 42.9% | 1.6 | 0.0% | 20.0% | |
| 30 | Broek Ostrom | G | Sr | 6'2" | 4-1 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 0.5 | 0.0% | 29.7% | |
| 15 | Jack DeRose | G | Jr | 6'0" | 3-0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 75.0% | 50.0% | 0.7 | — | 39.7% | |
| 21 | Xander Wedlow | C | So | 6'10" | 2-0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 29.1% | |
| 7 | Brayden Jackson | G | So | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 4 | John Ikpotokin | F | Fr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26St Bonaventure
Against the spread
Season
12-20-1
Home
3-12
Road
6-5
Last 10
3-6-1
avg cover −0.6
Covered 2 of 5 as a favoriteCovered 1 of 5 as an underdog, 1 push
Over / under
Season
19-13-1
Home
10-4-1
Road
6-5
Last 10
4-6
avg vs total +4.5
Under 2 straightOver in 2 of 5 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 5 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 13 | Dayton | N | L 63–68 | +5.0 | P0.0 | 142.0 | U131 | 95.7 | 103.3 | 65.8 |
| Mar 12 | George Mason | N | W 63–57 | +2.5 | W+8.5 | 142.5 | U120 | 103.5 | 93.7 | 60.9 |
| Mar 11 | La Salle | N | W 99–80 | −5.5 | W+13.5 | 145.5 | O179 | 138.9 | 112.3 | 71.3 |
| Mar 7 | Davidson | H | L 63–68 | −5.0 | L−10.0 | 142.0 | U131 | 98.2 | 106.0 | 64.2 |
| Mar 4 | G Washington | A | L 82–91 OT | +7.5 | L−1.5 | 157.0 | O173 | 103.7 | 115.1 | 79.1 |
| Feb 28 | George Mason | A | L 58–71 | +3.5 | L−9.5 | 147.0 | U129 | 97.9 | 119.8 | 59.3 |
| Feb 26 | Rhode Island | H | W 94–76 | −3.0 | W+15.0 | 143.0 | O170 | 134.7 | 108.9 | 69.8 |
| Feb 21 | Richmond | A | L 94–99 | +1.0 | L−4.0 | 148.5 | O193 | 128.0 | 134.8 | 73.4 |
| Feb 18 | Saint Joseph's | H | L 65–71 | −5.0 | L−11.0 | 147.5 | U136 | 93.5 | 102.1 | 69.5 |
| Feb 14 | Duquesne | H | L 73–78 | −2.0 | L−7.0 | 152.5 | U151 | 105.8 | 113.0 | 69.0 |
Siena
Against the spread
Season
20-14-1
Home
7-6
Road
8-7-1
Last 10
7-3
avg cover +2.2
Covered 5 straightCovered 4 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 3 of 4 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
11-23-1
Home
4-9
Road
7-9
Last 10
1-8-1
avg vs total −3.4
Over in 0 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 1 of 4 as an underdog, 1 push
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19 | #1Duke | N | L 65–71 | +27.5 | W+21.5 | 136.0 | P136 | 105.0 | 114.7 | 61.9 |
| Mar 10 | Merrimack | N | W 64–54 | +1.5 | W+11.5 | 128.5 | U118 | 100.7 | 84.9 | 63.6 |
| Mar 8 | Fairfield | N | W 76–61 | −1.5 | W+13.5 | 138.0 | U137 | 119.0 | 95.5 | 63.9 |
| Mar 7 | Mount St Marys | N | W 63–58 | −3.0 | W+2.0 | 135.0 | U121 | 104.4 | 96.1 | 60.3 |
| Mar 1 | Rider | H | W 76–61 | −14.5 | W+0.5 | 137.5 | U137 | 114.2 | 91.6 | 66.6 |
| Feb 27 | Fairfield | A | L 58–72 | −1.0 | L−15.0 | 142.5 | U130 | 82.9 | 102.9 | 69.9 |
| Feb 22 | Saint Peter's | H | W 72–63 | −6.0 | W+3.0 | 136.0 | U135 | 117.3 | 102.6 | 61.4 |
| Feb 20 | Merrimack | A | L 72–79 OT | +2.5 | L−4.5 | 133.0 | O151 | 113.6 | 124.7 | 63.4 |
| Feb 15 | Marist | A | W 67–63 | +2.0 | W+6.0 | 134.0 | U130 | 102.7 | 96.5 | 65.3 |
| Feb 13 | Quinnipiac | H | L 62–74 | −4.0 | L−16.0 | 144.0 | U136 | 92.8 | 110.8 | 66.8 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeSt BonaventureSiena
Efficiency
111.7
108.6
110.0
106.7
68.2
66.4
—
—
Shooting
52.4%
50.4%
50.8%
52.5%
37.4%
30.6%
74.7%
77.1%
30.0%
33.4%
Ball control & glass
16.8%
15.8%
17.1%
17.0%
34.5%
31.8%
29.8%
29.5%
9.4%
10.2%
8.0%
9.5%
Style
31.3%
32.2%
46.6%
47.7%
17.3%
7.1%
55.2%
53.2%
21.8%
22.3%
Roster
3.46
3.65
6'4.2"
6'5.6"
94.2%
21.6%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputSt Bonaventure
Returning minutes: 94.2%Returning production: 92.5%
Lost
- Andrew Osasuyi 11.6 mpg, 3.6 ppg · transferred to Georgia
Added
- John Ikpotokin no D1 minutes last season
- Brayden Jackson no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 94% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Siena
Returning minutes: 21.6%Returning production: 12.4%
Lost
- Gavin Doty 36.7 mpg, 18.0 ppg · transferred to Syracuse
- Justice Shoats 35.6 mpg, 13.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Francis Folefac 28.1 mpg, 11.3 ppg · transferred to Syracuse
- Antonio Chandler 18.3 mpg, 6.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Christian Jones 17.0 mpg, 4.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Riley Mulvey 13.4 mpg, 2.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Tan Yildizoglu from VMI · 30.2 mpg, 9.9 ppg last season
- Paul Lambert no D1 minutes last season
- Angelos Bratakos no D1 minutes last season
- Mana Martin no D1 minutes last season
- Yannis Steger no D1 minutes last season
- Tim Ibukunoluwa no D1 minutes last season
Returns 22% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (2 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and last| Date | Season | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Wed, Nov 12 | 2025-26 | Siena 66 – 75 St Bonaventure |
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.