CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceWilliam H. Pitt Center, Fairfield, CT

UMass Lowell

Efficiency #308

2025-26: 15-18 · 10-8 conf

Sacred Heart

Efficiency #278

2025-26: 14-19 · 10-12 conf

Wed, Dec 9 · 11:00 AM ET

75.4

win 32%

Projected

80.7

win 68%

No line posted yet.

Model: SHU −5.4 · total 156.1 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Sacred Heart 69.0, UMass Lowell 69.5 → 70.2 possessions

+4.0

Sacred Heart offense vs UMass Lowell defense

+2.6

UMass Lowell offense vs Sacred Heart defense

+1.2

Projected total

156.1

Axis starts at 145 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Sacred Heart offense vs UMass Lowell defense

+2.6

UMass Lowell offense vs Sacred Heart defense

−1.2

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.0

Sacred Heart by 5.4

5.4

UMass Lowell side ◂▸ Sacred Heart side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 156.0 against a projected 156.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Sacred Heart.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 70.2, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, UMass Lowell is the faster team (68.9, #157 of 365) and Sacred Heart the slower (68.4, #179). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

70.2

per team, 40 min

Projected total

156.1

model

Projected team totals

75.4 / 80.7

UMass Lowell / Sacred Heart

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

69.5#80

UMass Lowell

69.0#126

Sacred Heart

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageSacred Heart

Where Sacred Heart scores: shooting

Sacred Heart shoots an effective 52.0% (#145); UMass Lowell allows 53.5% (#284). Expect about 52.8%, 1.6 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.2 points per 100 possessions.

ClashSacred Heart

Style clash: 3-point volume

Sacred Heart takes 50.7% of its shots from three; UMass Lowell runs teams off the line (35.0% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 45.6% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).

ClashUMass Lowell

Style clash: 3-point volume

UMass Lowell rarely shoots threes (31.3% of its shots); Sacred Heart lets opponents take 43.5% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 35.5% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).

ClashSacred Heart

Style clash: ball movement

Sacred Heart assists on 58.6% of its made baskets; UMass Lowell breaks up passing offenses (assists on 47.5% allowed) (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 53.2% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.65 vs 0.65).

ClashUMass Lowell

Style clash: ball movement

UMass Lowell creates off the dribble (assists on 45.4% of its baskets); Sacred Heart allows assists on 59.8% of opponents' baskets (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 52.7% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.65 vs 0.65).

ClashSacred Heart

Style clash: paint scoring

Sacred Heart gets only 34.4% of its points in the paint; UMass Lowell gives up 49.5% of opponents' points in the paint (D1 average 42.8%). Expect about 43.0% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.25 vs 0.34).

UMass Lowell has the ball

OffenseSacred Heart allowsvs D1 avg

49.8% #247

53.5% #283

+0.4 pt/100

18.0% #271

14.5% #320

+0.9 pt/100

32.7% #98

30.9% #199

+1.1 pt/100

34.9% #183

27.0% #24

-0.6 pt/100

65.7% #355

—

-0.6 pt/100

UMass Lowell net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.2 pts/100

Sacred Heart has the ball

OffenseUMass Lowell allowsvs D1 avg

52.0% #145

53.5% #284

+2.2 pt/100

17.7% #250

14.2% #329

+1.4 pt/100

28.6% #246

29.4% #126

-1.1 pt/100

31.0% #281

28.3% #34

-0.7 pt/100

78.0% #19

—

+0.5 pt/100

Sacred Heart net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +2.3 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

UMass Lowelloffense vsSacred Heartdefense

Share of shots by zone

UMass Lowell shoots

47.5

6.4

14.7

31.4

Sacred Heart allows

39.2

4.5

12.6

43.6

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	53.5%#326	60.4%#246	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	48.5%#18	48.2%#341	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	38.6%#166	38.1%#162	38.0%
Three	32.2%#269	34.8%#241	33.7%

Sacred Heartoffense vsUMass Lowelldefense

Share of shots by zone

Sacred Heart shoots

32.7

4.0

12.7

50.7

UMass Lowell allows

45.4

4.3

15.6

34.7

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	57.1%#225	58.2%#153	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	41.2%#141	41.2%#213	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	35.5%#277	43.1%#330	38.0%
Three	35.7%#73	34.6%#226	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

UMass Lowell

+0.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#167 of 365

Off reb %

32.7%

#98

Def reb %

70.6%

#126

Turnover %

18.0%

#271

Forced TO %

14.2%

#329

FT rate

34.9%

#183

FT allowed

28.3%

#34

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.7

Defensive rebounding+0.4

Ball security−0.8

Forcing turnovers−1.7

Foul shots drawn0.0

Foul shots allowed+1.8

Sacred Heart

−1.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#261 of 365

Off reb %

28.6%

#246

Def reb %

69.1%

#199

Turnover %

17.7%

#250

Forced TO %

14.5%

#320

FT rate

31.0%

#281

FT allowed

27.0%

#24

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.6

Defensive rebounding−0.1

Ball security−0.6

Forcing turnovers−1.5

Foul shots drawn−1.0

Foul shots allowed+2.1

UMass Lowell has more extra scoring chances per game: +0.3 (#167 of 365) to Sacred Heart’s −1.7 (#261).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

UMass Lowell2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
11	Xavier Spencer	G	Jr	6'1"	33-33	33.9	11.9	4.4	2.9	1.9	52.0%	34.9%	4.4	77.3%	21.8%
3	Darrel Yepdo	G	Jr	6'0"	33-33	31.4	10.3	3.1	3.2	2.3	48.0%	36.3%	4.4	75.0%	22.8%
9	Angel Montas Jr.	G	Jr	6'6"	30-23	29.2	15.8	5.1	1.7	1.8	55.0%	31.3%	3.2	64.4%	31.6%
10	Austin Green	F	Sr	6'8"	27-26	27.4	13.2	8.0	1.2	1.3	56.7%	0.0%	0.1	60.9%	26.6%
13	Shawn Simmons II	F	Jr	6'6"	27-26	25.7	6.7	5.1	1.1	1.4	51.1%	33.3%	0.8	66.2%	17.3%
23	Victor Okojie	F	Fr	6'8"	29-6	18.1	5.0	4.8	0.7	0.9	45.7%	28.8%	1.8	55.1%	19.6%
55	JJ Massaquoi	G	Fr	6'6"	30-8	16.7	8.5	2.8	0.4	1.1	50.5%	8.3%	0.4	66.2%	31.1%
14	Jared Frey	G	Jr	6'6"	25-10	13.6	4.0	1.2	1.2	0.6	50.0%	32.7%	2.1	100.0%	17.3%
6	Isaiah Walter	G	Fr	6'7"	13-0	9.2	3.0	1.5	0.9	1.2	40.6%	11.1%	1.4	68.4%	25.6%
15	Jerrell Roberson II	F	Jr	6'9"	12-0	7.8	3.4	2.4	0.0	0.5	53.6%	—	0.0	55.0%	24.8%
2	Keenan Bey	F	Fr	6'7"	8-0	5.8	1.3	0.9	0.5	0.1	58.3%	50.0%	0.3	50.0%	11.6%
1	Kris Johnson	G	Fr	6'5"	6-0	6.5	1.7	0.3	0.2	0.2	30.0%	0.0%	0.3	100.0%	18.3%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Sacred Heart2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
0	Jaden Slaughter	G	Sr	6'5"	32-9	20.7	5.3	3.3	1.1	0.9	50.7%	35.5%	1.0	79.5%	16.4%
6	Jo Van Buggenhoutat Indiana St	G	Jr	6'3"	26-6	20.8	6.3	2.1	3.1	1.5	47.7%	28.7%	3.1	64.3%	22.2%
13	Abdou Yadd	F	So	6'9"	26-5	14.9	6.2	2.5	0.6	1.3	46.5%	28.9%	3.2	72.7%	30.4%
24	Jaylen Robinsonat Richmond	F	Jr	6'7"	31-0	10.3	2.7	1.5	0.9	0.5	61.6%	20.0%	0.2	35.9%	16.3%
11	Samson Reillyat Quinnipiac	G	Jr	6'2"	27-2	9.3	4.5	0.6	0.4	0.2	63.3%	48.1%	2.9	60.0%	22.8%
55	Malik Sheppard	G	Jr	5'10"	3-0	1.7	0.7	0.0	0.0	0.3	50.0%	0.0%	0.3	—	34.8%
8	Jeremiah Jacobs	G	So	6'8"	1-0	3.0	4.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	100.0%	—	0.0	—	38.5%
1	Griffin Barrouk	G	Sr	6'5"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
21	Kevin Pikiell	G	Fr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
3	Mooda Gittens	G	Fr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
15	DJ Brown	G	Fr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
23	Jojo Wallace	G	Jr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
10	Kedrick Curtis	F	Sr	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
14	Landon Krygier	F	Fr	6'5"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Transfers in: Samson Reilly (from Quinnipiac), Jaylen Robinson (from Richmond), Jo Van Buggenhout (from Indiana St)

UMass Lowell2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
11	Xavier Spencer	G	Jr	6'1"	33-33	33.9	11.9	4.4	2.9	1.9	52.0%	34.9%	4.4	77.3%	21.8%
3	Darrel Yepdo	G	Jr	6'0"	33-33	31.4	10.3	3.1	3.2	2.3	48.0%	36.3%	4.4	75.0%	22.8%
9	Angel Montas Jr.	G	Jr	6'6"	30-23	29.2	15.8	5.1	1.7	1.8	55.0%	31.3%	3.2	64.4%	31.6%
10	Austin Green	F	Sr	6'8"	27-26	27.4	13.2	8.0	1.2	1.3	56.7%	0.0%	0.1	60.9%	26.6%
13	Shawn Simmons II	F	Jr	6'6"	27-26	25.7	6.7	5.1	1.1	1.4	51.1%	33.3%	0.8	66.2%	17.3%
23	Victor Okojie	F	Fr	6'8"	29-6	18.1	5.0	4.8	0.7	0.9	45.7%	28.8%	1.8	55.1%	19.6%
55	JJ Massaquoi	G	Fr	6'6"	30-8	16.7	8.5	2.8	0.4	1.1	50.5%	8.3%	0.4	66.2%	31.1%
14	Jared Frey	G	Jr	6'6"	25-10	13.6	4.0	1.2	1.2	0.6	50.0%	32.7%	2.1	100.0%	17.3%
6	Isaiah Walter	G	Fr	6'7"	13-0	9.2	3.0	1.5	0.9	1.2	40.6%	11.1%	1.4	68.4%	25.6%
15	Jerrell Roberson II	F	Jr	6'9"	12-0	7.8	3.4	2.4	0.0	0.5	53.6%	—	0.0	55.0%	24.8%
2	Keenan Bey	F	Fr	6'7"	8-0	5.8	1.3	0.9	0.5	0.1	58.3%	50.0%	0.3	50.0%	11.6%
1	Kris Johnson	G	Fr	6'5"	6-0	6.5	1.7	0.3	0.2	0.2	30.0%	0.0%	0.3	100.0%	18.3%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

UMass Lowell

Against the spread

Season

16-14

Home

7-4

Road

9-10

Last 10

7-3

avg cover +0.8

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 5 of 5 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 5 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

14-16

Home

6-5

Road

8-11

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total +1.4

Over 2 straightOver in 3 of 5 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 5 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 10	UMBCAdjEM #147	A	L 69–91	+7.0	L−15.0	148.0	O160	101.7	134.1	67.8
Mar 7	UAlbanyAdjEM #306	H	W 81–76	−3.0	W+2.0	147.5	O157	120.1	112.7	67.5
Mar 3	MaineAdjEM #335	A	W 67–56	−1.0	W+10.0	140.5	U123	102.0	85.2	65.7
Feb 28	UMBCAdjEM #147	H	L 60–84	+2.0	L−22.0	151.5	U144	91.7	128.4	65.4
Feb 26	VermontAdjEM #199	A	L 64–66	+9.0	W+7.0	146.5	U130	98.4	101.5	65.0
Feb 21	BinghamtonAdjEM #354	H	W 92–79	−9.0	W+4.0	146.5	O171	142.1	122.0	64.7
Feb 19	New HampshireAdjEM #340	H	W 78–56	−3.5	W+18.5	151.0	U134	110.7	79.5	70.5
Feb 12	BryantAdjEM #347	H	W 88–69	−4.5	W+14.5	142.0	O157	134.7	105.6	65.3
Feb 7	UAlbanyAdjEM #306	A	W 89–79	+3.5	W+13.5	145.0	O168	128.0	113.6	69.5
Feb 5	NJITAdjEM #331	A	L 56–81	+1.0	L−24.0	149.0	U137	82.1	118.7	68.2

Sacred Heart

Against the spread

Season

15-17

Home

6-6

Road

8-10

Last 10

5-5

avg cover −1.2

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 7 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

15-17

Home

6-6

Road

8-10

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total −2.5

Under in the last gameOver in 3 of 7 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 6	MerrimackAdjEM #158	N	L 48–70	+7.0	L−15.0	143.0	U118	78.6	114.6	61.1
Mar 5	IonaAdjEM #227	N	W 91–80	+3.5	W+14.5	149.5	O171	132.9	116.8	68.5
Feb 27	Mount St MarysAdjEM #265	H	W 77–69	−2.5	W+5.5	150.5	U146	116.9	104.7	65.9
Feb 22	MaristAdjEM #153	A	L 63–65	+7.5	W+5.5	146.5	U128	93.1	96.0	67.7
Feb 20	FairfieldAdjEM #230	A	L 68–78	+5.0	L−5.0	158.0	U146	98.7	113.2	68.9
Feb 15	RiderAdjEM #356	H	W 86–75	−9.0	W+2.0	146.5	O161	124.5	108.6	69.1
Feb 13	Saint Peter'sAdjEM #225	H	W 78–71	+1.5	W+8.5	148.0	O149	121.5	110.6	64.2
Feb 7	ManhattanAdjEM #328	A	L 68–80	−1.5	L−13.5	161.0	U148	95.7	112.6	71.1
Feb 5	FairfieldAdjEM #230	H	L 87–92	+1.0	L−4.0	155.0	O179	122.1	129.1	71.2
Feb 1	MerrimackAdjEM #158	A	L 58–75	+6.0	L−11.0	145.5	U133	90.9	117.6	63.8

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

UMass LowellSacred Heart

Efficiency

105.1

107.6

113.0

113.6

69.5

69.0

—

Shooting

49.8%

52.0%

50.5%

50.4%

32.2%

35.7%

65.7%

78.0%

34.9%

31.0%

Ball control & glass

18.0%

17.7%

14.2%

14.5%

32.7%

28.6%

29.4%

30.9%

11.9%

10.2%

10.4%

9.3%

Style

31.3%

50.7%

51.8%

34.4%

11.9%

11.8%

45.4%

58.6%

25.5%

24.0%

Roster

2.72

3.12

6'4.6"

6'5.2"

92.9%

16.0%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

UMass Lowell

Returning minutes: 92.9%Returning production: 96.0%

Lost

Khalil Farmer 14.2 mpg, 3.8 ppg · transferred to Rider

Added

Nobody of note.

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 93% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Sacred Heart

Returning minutes: 16.0%Returning production: 11.8%

Lost

Dashon Gittens 33.0 mpg, 13.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Yann Farell 29.8 mpg, 11.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Nyle Ralph-Beyer 28.7 mpg, 13.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Mekhi Conner 27.8 mpg, 7.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Anquan Hill 26.6 mpg, 14.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Fallou Gueye 10.8 mpg, 2.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Jo Van Buggenhout from Indiana St · 16.9 mpg, 5.1 ppg last season
Jaylen Robinson from Richmond · 10.0 mpg, 2.6 ppg last season
Samson Reilly from Quinnipiac · 7.8 mpg, 3.8 ppg last season
Kevin Pikiell no D1 minutes last season
Griffin Barrouk no D1 minutes last season
Landon Krygier no D1 minutes last season

Returns 16% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Tue, Dec 16	2025-26	Sacred Heart 82 – 87 UMass Lowell

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.