CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Conference gameYanitelli Center, Jersey City, NJ
Sacred Heart
Efficiency #278
2025-26: 14-19 · 10-12 conf
@
Saint Peter's
Efficiency #225
2025-26: 17-12 · 14-7 conf
Sun, Dec 6 · 2:00 PM ET
70.6
win 30%
Projected
76.8
win 70%
No line posted yet.
Model: SPU −6.1 · total 147.4 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Saint Peter's 67.1, Sacred Heart 69.0 → 67.7 possessions
−1.4
Saint Peter's offense vs Sacred Heart defense
+1.4
Sacred Heart offense vs Saint Peter's defense
−0.8
Projected total
147.4
Axis starts at 146 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Saint Peter's offense vs Sacred Heart defense
+1.4
Sacred Heart offense vs Saint Peter's defense
+0.8
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.9
Saint Peter's by 6.1
6.1
Sacred Heart side ◂▸ Saint Peter's side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Saint Peter's.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 67.7, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Sacred Heart is the faster team (68.4, #179 of 365) and Saint Peter's the slower (65.5, #316). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
67.7
per team, 40 min
Projected total
147.4
model
Projected team totals
70.6 / 76.8
Sacred Heart / Saint Peter's
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
69.0#126
Sacred Heart
67.1#283
Saint Peter's

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageSacred Heart
Where Sacred Heart struggles: ball control
Sacred Heart turns it over on 17.7% of possessions (#250); Saint Peter's forces turnovers on 20.0% of opponent possessions (#22). Expect about 19.4%, 2.6 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.2 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageSaint Peter's
Where Saint Peter's scores: the offensive glass
Saint Peter's rebounds 37.0% of its own misses (#16); Sacred Heart lets opponents grab 30.9% of their own misses (#199). Expect about 35.2%, 4.8 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.9 points per 100 possessions.
DefenseSaint Peter's
Saint Peter's's ball-hawking
Saint Peter's ranks #7 nationally in steal rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 12.2% of Sacred Heart's possessions to end in a steal against this defense.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Saint Peter's) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Sacred Heart at about 45.9% of its shots from three, Saint Peter's about 41.5%.
ClashSacred Heart
Style clash: 3-point volume
Sacred Heart takes 50.7% of its shots from three; Saint Peter's runs teams off the line (35.5% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 45.9% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).
Sacred Heart has the ball
OffenseSaint Peter's allowsvs D1 avg
52.0% #145
48.1% #39
-1.7 pt/100
17.7% #250
20.0% #22
-3.2 pt/100
28.6% #246
34.7% #330
+0.5 pt/100
31.0% #281
46.4% #354
+0.6 pt/100
78.0% #19
—
+0.5 pt/100
Sacred Heart net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -3.3 pts/100
Saint Peter's has the ball
OffenseSacred Heart allowsvs D1 avg
46.4% #347
53.5% #283
-2.4 pt/100
17.7% #249
14.5% #320
+1.1 pt/100
37.0% #16
30.9% #199
+2.9 pt/100
35.5% #163
27.0% #24
-0.6 pt/100
73.6% #148
—
+0.1 pt/100
Saint Peter's net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.2 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Sacred Heartoffense vsSaint Peter'sdefense
Share of shots by zone
Sacred Heart shoots
Saint Peter's allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim57.1%#22551.7%#1358.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)41.2%#14141.1%#21039.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)35.5%#27739.6%#22738.0%
Three35.7%#7332.1%#6833.7%
Saint Peter'soffense vsSacred Heartdefense
Share of shots by zone
Saint Peter's shoots
Sacred Heart allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim51.6%#35160.4%#24658.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)38.8%#19848.2%#34139.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)37.2%#21638.1%#16238.0%
Three31.0%#32134.8%#24133.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Sacred Heart
−1.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#261 of 365
Off reb %
28.6%
#246
Def reb %
69.1%
#199
Turnover %
17.7%
#250
Forced TO %
14.5%
#320
FT rate
31.0%
#281
FT allowed
27.0%
#24
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.6
Defensive rebounding−0.1
Ball security−0.6
Forcing turnovers−1.5
Foul shots drawn−1.0
Foul shots allowed+2.1
Saint Peter's
−0.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#189 of 365
Off reb %
37.0%
#16
Def reb %
65.3%
#330
Turnover %
17.7%
#249
Forced TO %
20.0%
#22
FT rate
35.5%
#163
FT allowed
46.4%
#354
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+2.1
Defensive rebounding−1.3
Ball security−0.6
Forcing turnovers+2.3
Foul shots drawn+0.1
Foul shots allowed−2.9

Saint Peter's has more extra scoring chances per game: −0.2 (#189 of 365) to Sacred Heart’s −1.7 (#261).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Sacred Heart2025-26 numbers
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
0Jaden SlaughterGSr6'5"32-920.75.33.31.10.950.7%35.5%1.079.5%16.4%
6Jo Van Buggenhoutat Indiana StGJr6'3"26-620.86.32.13.11.547.7%28.7%3.164.3%22.2%
13Abdou YaddFSo6'9"26-514.96.22.50.61.346.5%28.9%3.272.7%30.4%
24Jaylen Robinsonat RichmondFJr6'7"31-010.32.71.50.90.561.6%20.0%0.235.9%16.3%
11Samson Reillyat QuinnipiacGJr6'2"27-29.34.50.60.40.263.3%48.1%2.960.0%22.8%
55Malik SheppardGJr5'10"3-01.70.70.00.00.350.0%0.0%0.3—34.8%
8Jeremiah JacobsGSo6'8"1-03.04.01.00.00.0100.0%—0.0—38.5%
1Griffin BarroukGSr6'5"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
21Kevin PikiellGFr6'3"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
3Mooda GittensGFr6'4"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
15DJ BrownGFr6'3"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
23Jojo WallaceGJr6'3"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
10Kedrick CurtisFSr6'7"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
14Landon KrygierFFr6'5"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Transfers in: Samson Reilly (from Quinnipiac), Jaylen Robinson (from Richmond), Jo Van Buggenhout (from Indiana St)

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
Sacred HeartSaint Peter's
Efficiency
107.6
105.4
113.6
108.1
69.0
67.1
—
—
Shooting
52.0%
46.4%
50.4%
46.2%
35.7%
31.0%
78.0%
73.6%
31.0%
35.5%
Ball control & glass
17.7%
17.7%
14.5%
20.0%
28.6%
37.0%
30.9%
34.7%
10.2%
9.3%
9.3%
10.0%
Style
50.7%
38.7%
34.4%
39.9%
11.8%
17.0%
58.6%
53.2%
24.0%
36.5%
Roster
3.12
3.54
6'5.2"
6'3.5"
16.0%
26.5%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Sacred Heart
Returning minutes: 16.0%Returning production: 11.8%
Lost
  • Dashon Gittens 33.0 mpg, 13.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Yann Farell 29.8 mpg, 11.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Nyle Ralph-Beyer 28.7 mpg, 13.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Mekhi Conner 27.8 mpg, 7.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Anquan Hill 26.6 mpg, 14.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Fallou Gueye 10.8 mpg, 2.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • Jo Van Buggenhout from Indiana St · 16.9 mpg, 5.1 ppg last season
  • Jaylen Robinson from Richmond · 10.0 mpg, 2.6 ppg last season
  • Samson Reilly from Quinnipiac · 7.8 mpg, 3.8 ppg last season
  • Kevin Pikiell no D1 minutes last season
  • Griffin Barrouk no D1 minutes last season
  • Landon Krygier no D1 minutes last season

Returns 16% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Saint Peter's
Returning minutes: 26.5%Returning production: 21.7%
Lost
  • Brent Bland 33.1 mpg, 13.9 ppg · transferred to Miami
  • Jahki Gupton 24.5 mpg, 7.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Zaakir Williamson 21.7 mpg, 8.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • TJ Robinson 18.1 mpg, 9.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Lucas Scroggins 16.2 mpg, 5.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Adetokunbo Bakare 10.4 mpg, 3.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • Bryson Wilson from Binghamton · 25.4 mpg, 8.9 ppg last season
  • Trey Patterson from Rice · 3.4 mpg, 0.6 ppg last season
  • Phoenix Glassnor from Toledo · 1.1 mpg, 0.5 ppg last season
  • Bourgeois Tshilobo from Weber St · 1.1 mpg, 0.6 ppg last season
  • Jonathan Noudjihidi from UC Davis · 0.5 mpg, 0.0 ppg last season
  • Xavier Thomas no D1 minutes last season

Returns 27% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last
DateSeasonResult
Fri, Feb 132025-26Saint Peter's 71 – 78 Sacred Heart

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.