CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Conference gameHynes Athletics Center, New Rochelle, NY
Marist
Efficiency #153
2025-26: 19-12 · 13-9 conf
@
Iona
Efficiency #227
2025-26: 18-14 · 10-11 conf
Sun, Dec 6 · 1:00 PM ET
69.2
win 46%
Projected
70.5
win 54%
No line posted yet.
Model: IONA −1.3 · total 139.8 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Iona 69.4, Marist 67.6 → 68.7 possessions
+0.8
Iona offense vs Marist defense
−5.9
Marist offense vs Iona defense
−3.3
Projected total
139.8
Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Iona offense vs Marist defense
−5.9
Marist offense vs Iona defense
+3.3
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.0
Iona by 1.3
1.3
Marist side ◂▸ Iona side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +1.4 against +1.3. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Iona.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 68.7, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Iona is the faster team (68.4, #177 of 365) and Marist the slower (66.5, #271). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
68.7
per team, 40 min
Projected total
139.8
model
Projected team totals
69.2 / 70.5
Marist / Iona
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
67.6#246
Marist
69.4#87
Iona

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageIona
Where Iona struggles: shooting
Iona shoots an effective 51.9% (#149); Marist allows 45.6% (#5). Expect about 48.7%, 2.6 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.6 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageMarist
Where Marist struggles: shooting
Marist shoots an effective 49.3% (#276); Iona allows 48.9% (#64). Expect about 48.9%, 2.4 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.3 points per 100 possessions.
TurnoversIona
Iona turns it over
Projected turnover rate of 18.7% is worth roughly -2.4 points per 100 possessions against Iona's offense.
ClashMarist
Style match: ball movement
Marist assists on 58.9% of its made baskets; Iona allows assists on 56.5% of opponents' baskets (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 59.3% — both habits push the same way.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Iona's defense, Marist's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Marist at about 36.3% of its shots from three, Iona about 42.9%.
GlassIona
Iona gets out-rebounded
Projected offensive rebound rate of 27.5% is worth roughly -1.7 points per 100 possessions against Iona's offense.
Marist has the ball
OffenseIona allowsvs D1 avg
49.3% #276
48.9% #64
-3.3 pt/100
16.9% #193
16.6% #178
+0.0 pt/100
29.1% #233
31.2% #212
-0.3 pt/100
25.7% #360
28.8% #40
-1.0 pt/100
78.1% #16
—
+0.5 pt/100
Marist net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -4.1 pts/100
Iona has the ball
OffenseMarist allowsvs D1 avg
51.9% #149
45.6% #5
-3.6 pt/100
17.2% #221
19.5% #34
-2.4 pt/100
27.8% #274
28.3% #77
-1.7 pt/100
29.3% #326
37.6% #252
-0.2 pt/100
70.7% #250
—
-0.2 pt/100
Iona net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -8.1 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Maristoffense vsIonadefense
Share of shots by zone
Marist shoots
Iona allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim58.4%#18157.4%#12658.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)40.7%#15239.5%#17439.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)40.5%#9235.9%#10738.0%
Three32.2%#27230.6%#2533.7%
Ionaoffense vsMaristdefense
Share of shots by zone
Iona shoots
Marist allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim55.7%#28154.0%#4058.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)37.2%#24136.7%#10539.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)39.8%#11734.9%#7238.0%
Three35.1%#10528.6%#233.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Marist
−0.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#218 of 365
Off reb %
29.1%
#233
Def reb %
71.7%
#77
Turnover %
16.9%
#193
Forced TO %
19.5%
#34
FT rate
25.7%
#360
FT allowed
37.6%
#252
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.4
Defensive rebounding+0.8
Ball security−0.1
Forcing turnovers+1.9
Foul shots drawn−2.4
Foul shots allowed−0.6
Iona
−1.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#242 of 365
Off reb %
27.8%
#274
Def reb %
68.8%
#212
Turnover %
17.2%
#221
Forced TO %
16.6%
#178
FT rate
29.3%
#326
FT allowed
28.8%
#40
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.8
Defensive rebounding−0.2
Ball security−0.3
Forcing turnovers−0.1
Foul shots drawn−1.5
Foul shots allowed+1.7

Marist has more extra scoring chances per game: −0.8 (#218 of 365) to Iona’s −1.2 (#242).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Marist2025-26 numbers
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
0Jadin Collins-RobertsGSr6'1"31-3130.37.24.53.22.247.2%23.8%1.480.4%18.4%
1Jack Grahamat New HampshireGSr6'3"30-2328.011.23.01.01.350.7%32.2%5.866.7%25.2%
5Myles ParkerFSo6'8"31-014.55.12.50.70.559.1%38.5%2.578.6%19.4%
21Jordan GabrielCSo6'9"25-07.02.31.80.30.353.3%0.0%0.145.5%21.5%
25Tarik WatsonCJr6'8"10-011.26.12.30.30.444.8%—0.075.0%35.1%
23Brady MacAdamsGFr6'5"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
11Brandon ArnoldGFr6'3"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
2Cameron SweeneyGFr6'2"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
31Drew DiazGFr6'2"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
13Dywane ChessGFr6'4"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
10Edward OnyiaFSo6'7"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
33Josh WilliamsGJr6'3"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
15Logan FranzCFr6'11"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
24Logan RodriguezFFr6'9"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Transfers in: Jack Graham (from New Hampshire)

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
MaristIona
Efficiency
103.6
105.8
102.6
108.5
67.6
69.4
—
—
Shooting
49.3%
51.9%
49.8%
51.2%
32.2%
35.1%
78.1%
70.7%
25.7%
29.3%
Ball control & glass
16.9%
17.2%
19.5%
16.6%
29.1%
27.8%
28.3%
31.2%
10.0%
10.7%
8.3%
11.1%
Style
34.6%
45.9%
43.6%
40.3%
11.2%
11.8%
58.9%
53.7%
35.5%
31.4%
Roster
3.46
3.25
6'3.8"
6'6"
26.9%
27.4%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Marist
Returning minutes: 26.9%Returning production: 25.0%
Lost
  • Rhyjon Blackwell 30.1 mpg, 12.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Justin Menard 29.3 mpg, 12.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Elijah Lewis 22.9 mpg, 9.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Jaden Daughtry 21.0 mpg, 5.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Parby Kabamba 16.8 mpg, 5.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Jason Schofield 14.0 mpg, 6.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • Jack Graham from New Hampshire · 28.0 mpg, 11.2 ppg last season
  • Cameron Sweeney no D1 minutes last season
  • Josh Williams no D1 minutes last season
  • Edward Onyia no D1 minutes last season
  • Logan Franz no D1 minutes last season
  • Logan Rodriguez no D1 minutes last season

Returns 27% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Iona
Returning minutes: 27.4%Returning production: 24.8%
Lost
  • CJ Anthony 30.8 mpg, 13.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Lamin Sabally 29.4 mpg, 11.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Denver Anglin 27.2 mpg, 9.0 ppg · transferred to Merrimack
  • Toby Harris 26.2 mpg, 11.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Keshawn Williams 11.5 mpg, 4.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Khalil Badru 9.8 mpg, 3.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • Kevon Vanderhorst from Drexel · 29.9 mpg, 9.3 ppg last season
  • Martin Kheil from Idaho St · 27.8 mpg, 8.5 ppg last season
  • Aiden Disu from Holy Cross · 24.1 mpg, 9.5 ppg last season
  • Sadiku Ibine Ayo from St John's · 6.2 mpg, 1.4 ppg last season
  • Keyshawn Mitchell from VCU · 5.9 mpg, 1.8 ppg last season
  • Ore Odutayo no D1 minutes last season

Returns 27% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last
DateSeasonResult
Sun, Jan 42025-26Iona 38 – 83 Marist

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.