CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Conference gameM&T Bank Arena, Hamden, CT
Siena
Efficiency #134
2025-26: 23-12 · 16-7 conf
@
Quinnipiac
Efficiency #190
2025-26: 19-13 · 12-9 conf
Sun, Dec 6 · 2:00 PM ET
71.0
win 43%
Projected
73.0
win 57%
No line posted yet.
Model: QUIN −2.0 · total 144.0 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Quinnipiac 70.1, Siena 66.4 → 68.2 possessions
−0.3
Quinnipiac offense vs Siena defense
−2.9
Siena offense vs Quinnipiac defense
−1.0
Projected total
144.0
Axis starts at 142 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Quinnipiac offense vs Siena defense
−2.9
Siena offense vs Quinnipiac defense
+1.0
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.9
Quinnipiac by 2.0
2.0
Siena side ◂▸ Quinnipiac side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Quinnipiac.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 68.2, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Quinnipiac is the faster team (69.7, #101 of 365) and Siena the slower (64.2, #350). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
68.2
per team, 40 min
Projected total
144.0
model
Projected team totals
71.0 / 73.0
Siena / Quinnipiac
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
66.4#322
Siena
70.1#45
Quinnipiac

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageQuinnipiac
Where Quinnipiac struggles: shooting
Quinnipiac shoots an effective 48.2% (#310); Siena allows 48.5% (#48). Expect about 48.0%, 3.2 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -4.6 points per 100 possessions.
Pace
Tempo tug-of-war
Quinnipiac averages 69.7 possessions per 40, Siena 64.2. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 66 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
ClashSiena
Style match: 3-point volume
Siena rarely shoots threes (32.2% of its shots); Quinnipiac runs teams off the line (35.4% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 31.0% — both habits push the same way.
AdvantageSiena
Where Siena struggles: shooting
Siena shoots an effective 50.4% (#222); Quinnipiac allows 48.9% (#65). Expect about 49.6%, 1.7 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.4 points per 100 possessions.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Siena) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Siena at about 31.0% of its shots from three, Quinnipiac about 34.8%.
Siena has the ball
OffenseQuinnipiac allowsvs D1 avg
50.4% #222
48.9% #65
-2.4 pt/100
15.8% #126
17.4% #127
+0.2 pt/100
31.8% #133
32.0% #253
+1.1 pt/100
33.4% #226
30.6% #75
-0.4 pt/100
77.1% #32
—
+0.4 pt/100
Siena net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -1.2 pts/100
Quinnipiac has the ball
OffenseSiena allowsvs D1 avg
48.2% #310
48.5% #48
-4.6 pt/100
15.9% #130
17.0% #152
+0.5 pt/100
34.1% #65
29.5% #133
+1.3 pt/100
33.8% #217
27.5% #27
-0.6 pt/100
69.1% #297
—
-0.3 pt/100
Quinnipiac net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -3.8 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Sienaoffense vsQuinnipiacdefense
Share of shots by zone
Siena shoots
Quinnipiac allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim57.7%#20652.6%#2058.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)46.5%#4635.1%#6039.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)44.1%#2335.1%#8138.0%
Three30.6%#33034.9%#24233.7%
Quinnipiacoffense vsSienadefense
Share of shots by zone
Quinnipiac shoots
Siena allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim54.9%#30153.4%#2958.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)30.0%#34944.7%#28739.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)31.1%#34639.7%#23238.0%
Three34.0%#17132.3%#8233.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Siena
+3.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#50 of 365
Off reb %
31.8%
#133
Def reb %
70.5%
#133
Turnover %
15.8%
#126
Forced TO %
17.0%
#152
FT rate
33.4%
#226
FT allowed
27.5%
#27
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.5
Defensive rebounding+0.4
Ball security+0.6
Forcing turnovers+0.2
Foul shots drawn−0.4
Foul shots allowed+2.0
Quinnipiac
+2.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#66 of 365
Off reb %
34.1%
#65
Def reb %
68.0%
#253
Turnover %
15.9%
#130
Forced TO %
17.4%
#127
FT rate
33.8%
#217
FT allowed
30.6%
#75
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.2
Defensive rebounding−0.4
Ball security+0.6
Forcing turnovers+0.5
Foul shots drawn−0.3
Foul shots allowed+1.2

Siena has more extra scoring chances per game: +3.2 (#50 of 365) to Quinnipiac’s +2.7 (#66).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Siena2025-26 numbers
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
21Brendan CoyleGSr6'7"35-3530.58.74.60.91.046.8%30.0%6.882.1%19.8%
30Tan Yildizogluat VMIGSr6'4"31-3131.110.23.64.72.345.4%27.1%3.863.3%24.5%
2Isaiah HendersonGSo6'6"28-113.83.80.80.50.547.1%30.4%2.575.8%18.8%
11Owen SchlagerGSo6'3"5-010.02.81.20.61.431.8%14.3%1.470.0%27.5%
33Chris TorresGJr6'2"4-02.50.50.00.30.025.0%—0.0—24.4%
12Reid DucharmeGJr6'7"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
9Andrs AmnGFr7'1"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
1Angelos BratakosGJr6'4"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
8Mana MartinGFr6'6"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
22Pace ProsserGJr6'2"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
3Parrish Edmond Jr.GFr6'7"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
94Paul LambertGFr6'9"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
0Sei'Mir RobersonGFr6'1"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
13Tim IbukunoluwaGFr6'8"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
5Trent EgbiremolenGFr6'5"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
77Yannis StegerGFr6'10"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Transfers in: Tan Yildizoglu (from VMI)

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
SienaQuinnipiac
Efficiency
108.6
106.0
106.7
106.8
66.4
70.1
—
—
Shooting
50.4%
48.2%
52.5%
46.7%
30.6%
34.0%
77.1%
69.1%
33.4%
33.8%
Ball control & glass
15.8%
15.9%
17.0%
17.4%
31.8%
34.1%
29.5%
32.0%
10.2%
9.4%
9.5%
11.2%
Style
32.2%
33.7%
47.7%
43.5%
7.1%
15.7%
53.2%
49.4%
22.3%
29.9%
Roster
3.65
1.99
6'5.6"
6'5.8"
21.6%
25.8%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Siena
Returning minutes: 21.6%Returning production: 12.4%
Lost
  • Gavin Doty 36.7 mpg, 18.0 ppg · transferred to Syracuse
  • Justice Shoats 35.6 mpg, 13.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Francis Folefac 28.1 mpg, 11.3 ppg · transferred to Syracuse
  • Antonio Chandler 18.3 mpg, 6.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Christian Jones 17.0 mpg, 4.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Riley Mulvey 13.4 mpg, 2.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • Tan Yildizoglu from VMI · 30.2 mpg, 9.9 ppg last season
  • Paul Lambert no D1 minutes last season
  • Angelos Bratakos no D1 minutes last season
  • Mana Martin no D1 minutes last season
  • Yannis Steger no D1 minutes last season
  • Tim Ibukunoluwa no D1 minutes last season

Returns 22% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (2 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Quinnipiac
Returning minutes: 25.8%Returning production: 25.9%
Lost
  • Grant Randall 31.7 mpg, 11.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Amarri Monroe 31.3 mpg, 14.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Asim Jones 28.8 mpg, 12.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Jaden Zimmerman 26.3 mpg, 12.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Spence Wewe 16.5 mpg, 2.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Samson Reilly 7.8 mpg, 3.8 ppg · transferred to Sacred Heart
Added
  • Holden Pierre-Louis from Cleveland St · 14.2 mpg, 3.0 ppg last season
  • Nas Hart from La Salle · 6.6 mpg, 1.4 ppg last season
  • Ali Diouf no D1 minutes last season
  • Jayden Reid no D1 minutes last season
  • Nedas Cholevinskas no D1 minutes last season
  • Mike Parrotta no D1 minutes last season

Returns 26% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last
DateSeasonResult
Fri, Feb 132025-26Quinnipiac 74 – 62 Siena

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.