CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceNeville Arena, Auburn, AL
E Kentucky
Efficiency #287
2025-26: 11-21 · 7-12 conf
@
Auburn
Efficiency #41
2025-26: 22-16 · 8-12 conf
Sun, Dec 6 · TBD
71.6
win 9%
Projected
87.4
win 91%
No line posted yet.
Model: AUB −15.8 · total 159.0 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Auburn 68.3, E Kentucky 68.3 → 68.3 possessions
0.0
Auburn offense vs E Kentucky defense
+11.3
E Kentucky offense vs Auburn defense
−0.5
Projected total
159.0
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Auburn offense vs E Kentucky defense
+11.3
E Kentucky offense vs Auburn defense
+0.5
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.9
Auburn by 15.8
15.8
E Kentucky side ◂▸ Auburn side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +15.7 against +15.8. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Auburn.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 68.3, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Auburn is the faster team (69.0, #146 of 365) and E Kentucky the slower (68.6, #167). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
68.3
per team, 40 min
Projected total
159.0
model
Projected team totals
71.6 / 87.4
E Kentucky / Auburn
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
68.3#186
E Kentucky
68.3#179
Auburn
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageAuburn
Where Auburn scores: shooting
Auburn shoots an effective 53.0% (#104); E Kentucky allows 56.1% (#346). Expect about 54.7%, 3.4 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +4.9 points per 100 possessions.
GlassAuburn
Auburn owns the glass
Projected offensive rebound rate of 35.7% is worth roughly +3.2 points per 100 possessions for Auburn's offense.
TurnoversAuburn
Auburn protects the ball
Projected turnover rate of 14.2% is worth roughly +3.1 points per 100 possessions for Auburn's offense.
AdvantageE Kentucky
Where E Kentucky scores: shooting
E Kentucky shoots an effective 52.1% (#141); Auburn allows 53.7% (#291). Expect about 53.0%, 1.7 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.4 points per 100 possessions.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Auburn's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect E Kentucky at about 48.9% of its shots from three, Auburn about 41.4%.
E Kentucky has the ball
OffenseAuburn allowsvs D1 avg
52.1% #141
53.7% #291
+2.4 pt/100
16.9% #197
16.3% #199
+0.3 pt/100
32.5% #106
30.9% #196
+1.0 pt/100
30.7% #286
34.3% #161
-0.3 pt/100
72.4% #193
—
-0.0 pt/100
E Kentucky net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +3.4 pts/100
Auburn has the ball
OffenseE Kentucky allowsvs D1 avg
53.0% #104
56.1% #346
+4.9 pt/100
14.6% #45
14.8% #306
+3.1 pt/100
37.0% #15
31.7% #241
+3.2 pt/100
43.2% #19
38.5% #274
+0.8 pt/100
74.4% #108
—
+0.2 pt/100
Auburn net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +12.2 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersE Kentuckyoffense vsAuburndefense
Share of shots by zone
E Kentucky shoots
28.6
7.4
13.9
50.2
Auburn allows
37.6
5.3
16.9
40.2
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 58.7%#172 | 59.6%#213 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 38.4%#211 | 38.7%#152 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 41.7%#63 | 38.5%#181 | 38.0% |
| Three | 35.0%#111 | 36.7%#336 | 33.7% |
Auburnoffense vsE Kentuckydefense
Share of shots by zone
Auburn shoots
41.1
4.4
14.2
40.2
E Kentucky allows
36.1
8.0
14.1
41.8
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 59.5%#142 | 64.0%#341 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 46.7%#43 | 49.6%#353 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 39.1%#142 | 47.2%#360 | 38.0% |
| Three | 34.4%#147 | 36.2%#312 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersE Kentucky
−3.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#303 of 365
Off reb %
32.5%
#106
Def reb %
68.3%
#241
Turnover %
16.9%
#197
Forced TO %
14.8%
#306
FT rate
30.7%
#286
FT allowed
38.5%
#274
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.7
Defensive rebounding−0.4
Ball security−0.1
Forcing turnovers−1.3
Foul shots drawn−1.1
Foul shots allowed−0.8
Auburn
+5.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#15 of 365
Off reb %
37.0%
#15
Def reb %
69.1%
#196
Turnover %
14.6%
#45
Forced TO %
16.3%
#199
FT rate
43.2%
#19
FT allowed
34.3%
#161
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+2.1
Defensive rebounding−0.1
Ball security+1.5
Forcing turnovers−0.3
Foul shots drawn+2.1
Foul shots allowed+0.2
Auburn has more extra scoring chances per game: +5.6 (#15 of 365) to E Kentucky’s −3.0 (#303).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
E Kentucky2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Montavious Myrick | F | Sr | 6'8" | 30-30 | 30.3 | 11.7 | 6.9 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 54.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 64.3% | 22.3% | |
| 0 | Turner Buttry | G | Sr | 5'11" | 32-11 | 26.4 | 9.8 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 51.4% | 36.7% | 4.9 | 90.6% | 20.7% | |
| 3 | MJ Williams | G | Fr | 5'10" | 32-22 | 23.7 | 10.0 | 3.5 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 48.9% | 33.7% | 5.2 | 75.4% | 27.9% | |
| 11 | Jackson Holt | G | Jr | 6'4" | 32-11 | 19.8 | 7.2 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 60.3% | 43.3% | 4.2 | 95.0% | 19.0% | |
| 14 | Austin Ball | F | So | 6'7" | 31-15 | 20.4 | 8.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 49.1% | 33.6% | 4.6 | 77.4% | 23.6% | |
| 8 | Jalen Cooper | F | Sr | 6'7" | 24-14 | 23.4 | 8.5 | 6.5 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 56.0% | 29.3% | 1.7 | 66.1% | 21.6% | |
| 21 | Yvens Paul | F | Jr | 6'7" | 32-16 | 17.2 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 61.8% | — | 0.0 | 37.5% | 16.8% | |
| 5 | Jayden Harris | F | So | 6'7" | 29-3 | 11.4 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 48.4% | 30.5% | 2.8 | 75.6% | 32.4% | |
| 2 | Tyler Jackson | G | Fr | 6'2" | 19-9 | 16.8 | 8.6 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 49.6% | 31.3% | 3.4 | 76.7% | 29.8% | |
| 24 | Asa White | C | Jr | 6'9" | 20-0 | 6.3 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 53.1% | 100.0% | 0.1 | 62.5% | 11.8% | |
| 12 | Mason Miles | G | Fr | 6'2" | 4-0 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 41.7% | 20.0% | 1.3 | — | 41.2% | |
| 7 | Trey Coles | G | Fr | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Auburn2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Thomas Dowdat Troy | F | Sr | 6'8" | 34-33 | 36.1 | 14.4 | 10.1 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 52.6% | 33.3% | 5.7 | 80.0% | 23.3% | |
| 24 | Adam Olsenat South Alabama | F | Sr | 6'8" | 31-31 | 36.0 | 16.7 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 52.9% | 39.5% | 8.3 | 84.3% | 26.3% | |
| 0 | Tahaad Pettiford | G | Jr | 6'1" | 38-36 | 32.3 | 15.4 | 3.0 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 46.6% | 29.0% | 6.6 | 82.5% | 31.0% | |
| 1 | Kevin Overton | G | Sr | 6'5" | 38-36 | 31.7 | 14.1 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 57.2% | 41.3% | 6.1 | 86.0% | 22.8% | |
| 4 | Kolby Kingat Utah State | G | Sr | 6'1" | 36-0 | 19.3 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 60.8% | 39.3% | 3.3 | 74.7% | 20.4% | |
| 12 | Bukky Oboyeat Santa Clara | C | Sr | 7'1" | 34-34 | 17.8 | 7.9 | 4.1 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 69.1% | 24.2% | 1.0 | 65.6% | 20.9% | |
| 8 | Owen Freemanat Creighton | F | Sr | 6'10" | 26-9 | 11.8 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 60.2% | — | 0.0 | 64.3% | 23.5% | |
| 21 | Blake Muschalek | G | Sr | 6'3" | 26-0 | 5.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 23.8% | 14.3% | 0.5 | 60.0% | 11.6% | |
| 10 | Simon Walker | G | So | 6'5" | 13-0 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 78.6% | 52.9% | 1.3 | — | 20.9% | |
| 7 | Drake Cardwell | G | Jr | 6'5" | 3-0 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 0.0% | |
| 13 | Bradley Pearson | G | Jr | 6'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 3 | George Kimble IIIat Vanderbilt | G | Sr | 6'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 20 | Jeremiah Bowman | F | So | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 14 | Joah Shay | G | Jr | 5'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 2 | Caleb Williams | G | Fr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 17 | Mantas Rubstavicius | G | — | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 94 | Narcisse Ngoy | C | — | 7'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Transfers in: Thomas Dowd (from Troy), Owen Freeman (from Creighton), George Kimble III (from Vanderbilt), Kolby King (from Utah State), Bukky Oboye (from Santa Clara), Adam Olsen (from South Alabama)
E Kentucky2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Montavious Myrick | F | Sr | 6'8" | 30-30 | 30.3 | 11.7 | 6.9 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 54.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 64.3% | 22.3% | |
| 0 | Turner Buttry | G | Sr | 5'11" | 32-11 | 26.4 | 9.8 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 51.4% | 36.7% | 4.9 | 90.6% | 20.7% | |
| 3 | MJ Williams | G | Fr | 5'10" | 32-22 | 23.7 | 10.0 | 3.5 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 48.9% | 33.7% | 5.2 | 75.4% | 27.9% | |
| 11 | Jackson Holt | G | Jr | 6'4" | 32-11 | 19.8 | 7.2 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 60.3% | 43.3% | 4.2 | 95.0% | 19.0% | |
| 14 | Austin Ball | F | So | 6'7" | 31-15 | 20.4 | 8.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 49.1% | 33.6% | 4.6 | 77.4% | 23.6% | |
| 8 | Jalen Cooper | F | Sr | 6'7" | 24-14 | 23.4 | 8.5 | 6.5 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 56.0% | 29.3% | 1.7 | 66.1% | 21.6% | |
| 21 | Yvens Paul | F | Jr | 6'7" | 32-16 | 17.2 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 61.8% | — | 0.0 | 37.5% | 16.8% | |
| 5 | Jayden Harris | F | So | 6'7" | 29-3 | 11.4 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 48.4% | 30.5% | 2.8 | 75.6% | 32.4% | |
| 2 | Tyler Jackson | G | Fr | 6'2" | 19-9 | 16.8 | 8.6 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 49.6% | 31.3% | 3.4 | 76.7% | 29.8% | |
| 24 | Asa White | C | Jr | 6'9" | 20-0 | 6.3 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 53.1% | 100.0% | 0.1 | 62.5% | 11.8% | |
| 12 | Mason Miles | G | Fr | 6'2" | 4-0 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 41.7% | 20.0% | 1.3 | — | 41.2% | |
| 7 | Trey Coles | G | Fr | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26E Kentucky
Against the spread
Season
11-19
Home
5-8
Road
6-10
Last 10
3-7
avg cover −6.0
Missed the spread 3 straightCovered 3 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 0 of 4 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
19-11
Home
9-4
Road
9-7
Last 10
7-3
avg vs total +10.1
Over in the last gameOver in 5 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 4 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4 | Stetson | N | L 76–92 | −6.0 | L−22.0 | 155.0 | O168 | 115.9 | 140.3 | 65.6 |
| Feb 28 | Lipscomb | H | L 77–80 | +2.5 | L−0.5 | 159.0 | U157 | 117.7 | 122.3 | 65.4 |
| Feb 25 | Queens | H | L 79–96 | +2.5 | L−14.5 | 165.5 | O175 | 111.8 | 135.8 | 70.7 |
| Feb 21 | Bellarmine | A | W 95–92 | −2.0 | W+1.0 | 153.0 | O187 | 149.0 | 144.3 | 63.7 |
| Feb 18 | West Georgia | H | W 81–80 OT | −6.5 | L−5.5 | 154.0 | O161 | 101.6 | 100.4 | 79.7 |
| Feb 15 | North Alabama | A | L 78–84 OT | −4.5 | L−10.5 | 149.5 | O162 | 104.6 | 112.6 | 74.6 |
| Feb 11 | Lipscomb | A | L 61–75 | +6.0 | L−8.0 | 161.0 | U136 | 93.2 | 114.6 | 65.5 |
| Feb 7 | Stetson | H | W 100–88 | −10.0 | W+2.0 | 151.5 | O188 | 142.0 | 125.0 | 70.4 |
| Feb 5 | FGCU | H | W 76–74 | −1.5 | W+0.5 | 154.0 | U150 | 108.5 | 105.7 | 70.0 |
| Jan 31 | C Arkansas | A | L 81–90 | +6.0 | L−3.0 | 151.5 | O171 | 106.8 | 118.7 | 75.8 |
Auburn
Against the spread
Season
16-22
Home
7-11
Road
3-7
Last 10
4-6
avg cover −1.6
Covered 2 straightCovered 4 of 8 as a favoriteCovered 1 of 4 with a line of 10+
Over / under
Season
23-15
Home
11-7
Road
6-4
Last 10
6-4
avg vs total +3.0
Over 2 straightOver in 5 of 8 as a favoriteOver in 3 of 4 with a line of 10+
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 5 | Tulsa | N | W 92–86 OT | −5.5 | W+0.5 | 159.5 | O178 | 112.5 | 105.2 | 81.8 |
| Apr 2 | Illinois St | N | W 88–66 | −8.0 | W+14.0 | 148.0 | O154 | 136.9 | 102.7 | 64.3 |
| Mar 25 | Nevada | H | W 75–69 | −8.0 | L−2.0 | 153.0 | U144 | 116.5 | 107.2 | 64.4 |
| Mar 22 | Seattle U | H | W 91–85 | −14.0 | L−8.0 | 146.0 | O176 | 125.2 | 116.9 | 72.7 |
| Mar 17 | South Alabama | H | W 78–67 | −18.0 | L−7.0 | 153.0 | U145 | 121.6 | 104.4 | 64.2 |
| Mar 12 | #25Tennessee | N | L 62–72 | +5.5 | L−4.5 | 145.0 | U134 | 97.1 | 112.8 | 63.9 |
| Mar 11 | Mississippi St | N | W 79–61 | −7.5 | W+10.5 | 159.0 | U140 | 110.8 | 85.6 | 71.3 |
| Mar 7 | #16Alabama | A | L 84–96 | +6.0 | L−6.0 | 175.0 | O180 | 118.0 | 134.9 | 71.2 |
| Mar 3 | LSU | H | W 88–74 | −10.5 | W+3.5 | 155.5 | O162 | 130.6 | 109.8 | 67.4 |
| Feb 28 | Ole Miss | H | L 79–85 | −11.0 | L−17.0 | 152.5 | O164 | 118.0 | 127.0 | 67.0 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeE KentuckyAuburn
Efficiency
108.8
118.2
115.3
107.4
68.3
68.3
—
—
Shooting
52.1%
53.0%
51.6%
53.9%
35.0%
34.4%
72.4%
74.4%
30.7%
43.2%
Ball control & glass
16.9%
14.6%
14.8%
16.3%
32.5%
37.0%
31.7%
30.9%
10.3%
9.2%
8.4%
12.4%
Style
50.8%
40.2%
34.5%
41.5%
12.0%
14.3%
53.3%
47.6%
36.8%
26.0%
Roster
2.86
3.79
6'4.2"
6'5.8"
87.2%
34.5%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputE Kentucky
Returning minutes: 87.2%Returning production: 88.4%
Lost
- Juan Cranford Jr. 25.9 mpg, 12.1 ppg · transferred to Bowling Green
Added
- Trey Coles no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 87% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Auburn
Returning minutes: 34.5%Returning production: 31.9%
Lost
- Keyshawn Hall 31.8 mpg, 18.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Sebastian Williams-Adams 27.4 mpg, 7.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Elyjah Freeman 26.9 mpg, 9.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- KeShawn Murphy 19.5 mpg, 8.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Filip Jovic 17.8 mpg, 6.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Kaden Magwood 5.6 mpg, 1.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Thomas Dowd from Troy · 36.1 mpg, 14.4 ppg last season
- Adam Olsen from South Alabama · 33.8 mpg, 15.7 ppg last season
- Kolby King from Utah State · 19.3 mpg, 7.5 ppg last season
- Bukky Oboye from Santa Clara · 17.3 mpg, 7.7 ppg last season
- Owen Freeman from Creighton · 9.0 mpg, 3.8 ppg last season
- Narcisse Ngoy no D1 minutes last season
Returns 35% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.