CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceHulman Center, Terre Haute, IN

S Indiana

Efficiency #333

2025-26: 7-23 · 4-16 conf

Indiana St

Efficiency #213

2025-26: 11-21 · 4-17 conf

Sun, Dec 6 · TBD

67.0

win 20%

Projected

76.9

win 80%

No line posted yet.

Model: INST −9.9 · total 143.8 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Indiana St 68.8, S Indiana 68.6 → 69.1 possessions

+1.6

Indiana St offense vs S Indiana defense

0.0

S Indiana offense vs Indiana St defense

−6.0

Projected total

143.8

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Indiana St offense vs S Indiana defense

0.0

S Indiana offense vs Indiana St defense

+6.0

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.0

Indiana St by 9.9

9.9

S Indiana side ◂▸ Indiana St side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +10.0 against +9.9. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Indiana St.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 69.1, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, S Indiana is the faster team (68.4, #175 of 365) and Indiana St the slower (68.3, #183). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

69.1

per team, 40 min

Projected total

143.8

model

Projected team totals

67.0 / 76.9

S Indiana / Indiana St

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

68.6#162

S Indiana

68.8#133

Indiana St

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageS Indiana

Where S Indiana struggles: shooting

S Indiana shoots an effective 43.7% (#363); Indiana St allows 50.2% (#110). Expect about 46.3%, 4.9 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -7.0 points per 100 possessions.

ClashS Indiana

Style match: ball movement

S Indiana creates off the dribble (assists on 43.0% of its baskets); Indiana St breaks up passing offenses (assists on 43.0% allowed) (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 40.3% — both habits push the same way.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (S Indiana, Indiana St's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect S Indiana at about 36.4% of its shots from three, Indiana St about 36.1%.

ClashIndiana St

Strength vs strength: 2-point shooting

Indiana St (#25 in 2-point shooting) against S Indiana (#57 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 53.5%. Historically Indiana St's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.61 vs 0.55).

AdvantageIndiana St

Where Indiana St struggles: ball control

Indiana St turns it over on 19.5% of possessions (#338); S Indiana forces turnovers on 16.4% of opponent possessions (#190). Expect about 18.1%, 1.3 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -1.7 points per 100 possessions.

ClashIndiana St

Style match: paint scoring

Indiana St scores 48.3% of its points in the paint; S Indiana gives up 49.8% of opponents' points in the paint (D1 average 42.8%). Expect about 46.5% — both habits push the same way.

S Indiana has the ball

OffenseIndiana St allowsvs D1 avg

43.7% #363

50.2% #110

-7.0 pt/100

17.2% #216

14.9% #301

+1.2 pt/100

31.4% #145

31.8% #245

+0.8 pt/100

37.2% #123

28.7% #39

-0.3 pt/100

66.6% #347

—

-0.5 pt/100

S Indiana net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -5.8 pts/100

Indiana St has the ball

OffenseS Indiana allowsvs D1 avg

52.8% #110

49.4% #80

-0.1 pt/100

19.5% #338

16.4% #190

-1.7 pt/100

26.2% #317

33.8% #315

-0.8 pt/100

27.4% #349

36.2% #212

-0.4 pt/100

67.8% #329

—

-0.4 pt/100

Indiana St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -3.3 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

S Indianaoffense vsIndiana Stdefense

Share of shots by zone

S Indiana shoots

39.7

2.9

18.3

39.2

Indiana St allows

39.4

8.4

18.2

34.0

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	49.4%#363	56.4%#94	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	31.0%#342	44.2%#272	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	29.8%#355	47.3%#363	38.0%
Three	29.9%#345	31.2%#37	33.7%

Indiana Stoffense vsS Indianadefense

Share of shots by zone

Indiana St shoots

43.3

5.1

6.6

45.0

S Indiana allows

47.4

8.0

17.9

26.7

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	62.9%#54	56.3%#92	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	30.0%#349	33.3%#31	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	42.9%#39	35.6%#94	38.0%
Three	31.5%#305	34.1%#193	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

S Indiana

−0.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#217 of 365

Off reb %

31.4%

#145

Def reb %

66.2%

#315

Turnover %

17.2%

#216

Forced TO %

16.4%

#190

FT rate

37.2%

#123

FT allowed

36.2%

#212

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.3

Defensive rebounding−1.0

Ball security−0.3

Forcing turnovers−0.2

Foul shots drawn+0.6

Foul shots allowed−0.2

Indiana St

−5.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#346 of 365

Off reb %

26.2%

#317

Def reb %

68.2%

#245

Turnover %

19.5%

#338

Forced TO %

14.9%

#301

FT rate

27.4%

#349

FT allowed

28.7%

#39

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.3

Defensive rebounding−0.4

Ball security−1.9

Forcing turnovers−1.3

Foul shots drawn−1.9

Foul shots allowed+1.7

S Indiana has more extra scoring chances per game: −0.8 (#217 of 365) to Indiana St’s −5.1 (#346).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

S Indiana2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted S Indiana's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
21	Ismail Habib	G	Sr	6'1"	27-23	32.4	14.7	3.6	2.8	2.4	47.2%	33.0%	6.9	68.8%	30.5%
3	Tolu Samuels	F	Jr	6'8"	29-26	29.5	7.1	8.6	1.3	1.0	45.5%	25.0%	0.4	51.2%	16.8%
5	Ola Ajiboye	F	Sr	6'8"	30-30	25.0	6.6	5.1	0.8	0.8	49.3%	0.0%	0.0	65.2%	16.2%
8	Cardell Bailey	G	Sr	6'6"	29-7	24.6	12.6	5.0	0.7	1.4	46.1%	30.9%	5.7	71.4%	33.9%
11	Sheridan Sharp	G	Jr	6'3"	30-7	17.1	4.4	2.1	2.5	1.4	31.8%	25.0%	0.5	63.5%	23.6%
2	Steven Clay	G	Sr	6'4"	30-21	14.5	4.4	2.0	0.5	0.5	50.4%	31.0%	2.9	93.3%	18.4%
15	Amaree Brown	G	Jr	6'5"	16-12	26.4	13.8	2.8	1.2	1.9	41.2%	28.8%	3.7	78.5%	36.7%
22	Josiah Dunham	G	So	6'0"	20-10	20.9	4.8	1.9	0.7	0.7	47.3%	35.8%	3.4	80.0%	15.9%
0	Kaden Brown	G	Jr	6'1"	13-12	28.3	11.1	2.5	1.6	1.8	49.6%	33.7%	6.6	67.4%	24.0%
13	Devin Curtis	F	Jr	6'11"	27-0	11.3	2.1	2.5	0.2	0.6	44.4%	0.0%	0.1	44.4%	14.8%
6	Ben Ezeagu	F	Sr	6'7"	15-0	8.5	2.1	1.3	0.0	0.7	45.0%	—	0.0	56.0%	18.5%
12	Alem Fejzic	G	So	6'3"	14-0	8.6	1.6	0.6	0.1	0.2	33.8%	21.2%	2.4	—	16.7%
1	Trey Thomas	G	Sr	6'2"	4-2	22.5	11.8	3.3	1.0	2.0	40.9%	18.8%	4.0	100.0%	37.8%
4	Braxton Jones	G	Sr	6'0"	4-0	10.5	2.3	0.5	0.5	0.3	19.2%	25.0%	1.0	100.0%	20.0%
33	Cayden Gehlhausen	G	So	6'8"	5-0	3.4	0.4	1.4	0.0	0.4	100.0%	—	0.0	—	9.6%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Indiana St2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
23	Ian Scott	F	Sr	6'7"	32-32	30.0	13.5	6.5	2.6	2.1	66.9%	38.8%	1.5	72.4%	23.1%
8	Camp Wagner	G	Jr	6'6"	32-26	28.8	11.9	4.4	1.9	1.7	49.4%	34.3%	7.4	91.5%	26.3%
30	Xavier Hall	G	Sr	6'0"	32-31	27.7	7.6	2.1	4.2	1.7	48.1%	23.6%	2.8	75.0%	19.0%
0	Sterling Young	G	Sr	6'1"	30-24	23.4	10.0	1.5	1.8	1.6	48.7%	34.3%	4.7	86.4%	27.7%
4	Bruno Alocen	G	So	6'6"	32-9	21.3	6.3	2.9	1.5	1.1	48.5%	30.3%	3.8	80.0%	19.5%
10	Enel St. Bernard	F	Jr	6'6"	31-0	18.2	5.9	5.5	0.9	0.9	66.9%	0.0%	0.1	39.4%	18.4%
35	Derek Vorst	C	Jr	6'10"	22-13	20.4	7.9	3.9	1.3	0.9	59.1%	42.1%	0.9	53.8%	21.8%
11	Markus Harding	C	Sr	6'10"	22-16	20.4	7.3	3.5	0.8	2.0	56.4%	34.1%	2.0	52.4%	24.1%
7	Hunter Harding	C	So	7'1"	13-3	7.2	1.8	1.2	0.5	0.5	88.5%	60.0%	0.4	33.3%	13.1%
13	Cooper Bean	G	So	6'3"	16-0	4.9	1.4	0.3	0.6	0.4	61.1%	33.3%	0.8	0.0%	17.5%
2	Jayan Walker	G	So	6'6"	11-0	7.1	2.5	1.5	0.5	0.8	52.3%	27.3%	1.0	80.0%	23.6%
9	Sivert Waerstad Nordheim	G	Fr	6'6"	18-0	4.2	1.6	0.5	0.1	0.1	38.7%	16.7%	0.7	80.0%	25.9%
5	Zyair Greene	G	Sr	6'3"	4-0	7.3	2.0	0.8	0.0	0.0	35.0%	12.5%	2.0	50.0%	20.3%
12	Caden Huttenlocker	G	Jr	6'2"	9-0	2.2	0.7	0.2	0.1	0.0	30.0%	25.0%	0.9	—	27.0%
21	Martin Kaupanger	G	Fr	6'5"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

S Indiana2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted S Indiana's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
21	Ismail Habib	G	Sr	6'1"	27-23	32.4	14.7	3.6	2.8	2.4	47.2%	33.0%	6.9	68.8%	30.5%
3	Tolu Samuels	F	Jr	6'8"	29-26	29.5	7.1	8.6	1.3	1.0	45.5%	25.0%	0.4	51.2%	16.8%
5	Ola Ajiboye	F	Sr	6'8"	30-30	25.0	6.6	5.1	0.8	0.8	49.3%	0.0%	0.0	65.2%	16.2%
8	Cardell Bailey	G	Sr	6'6"	29-7	24.6	12.6	5.0	0.7	1.4	46.1%	30.9%	5.7	71.4%	33.9%
11	Sheridan Sharp	G	Jr	6'3"	30-7	17.1	4.4	2.1	2.5	1.4	31.8%	25.0%	0.5	63.5%	23.6%
2	Steven Clay	G	Sr	6'4"	30-21	14.5	4.4	2.0	0.5	0.5	50.4%	31.0%	2.9	93.3%	18.4%
15	Amaree Brown	G	Jr	6'5"	16-12	26.4	13.8	2.8	1.2	1.9	41.2%	28.8%	3.7	78.5%	36.7%
22	Josiah Dunham	G	So	6'0"	20-10	20.9	4.8	1.9	0.7	0.7	47.3%	35.8%	3.4	80.0%	15.9%
0	Kaden Brown	G	Jr	6'1"	13-12	28.3	11.1	2.5	1.6	1.8	49.6%	33.7%	6.6	67.4%	24.0%
13	Devin Curtis	F	Jr	6'11"	27-0	11.3	2.1	2.5	0.2	0.6	44.4%	0.0%	0.1	44.4%	14.8%
6	Ben Ezeagu	F	Sr	6'7"	15-0	8.5	2.1	1.3	0.0	0.7	45.0%	—	0.0	56.0%	18.5%
12	Alem Fejzic	G	So	6'3"	14-0	8.6	1.6	0.6	0.1	0.2	33.8%	21.2%	2.4	—	16.7%
1	Trey Thomas	G	Sr	6'2"	4-2	22.5	11.8	3.3	1.0	2.0	40.9%	18.8%	4.0	100.0%	37.8%
4	Braxton Jones	G	Sr	6'0"	4-0	10.5	2.3	0.5	0.5	0.3	19.2%	25.0%	1.0	100.0%	20.0%
33	Cayden Gehlhausen	G	So	6'8"	5-0	3.4	0.4	1.4	0.0	0.4	100.0%	—	0.0	—	9.6%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

S Indiana

Against the spread

Season

12-15-1

Home

2-8-1

Road

8-7

Last 10

4-6

avg cover −4.3

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 8 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

11-17

Home

3-8

Road

6-9

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total −0.7

Over in the last gameOver in 3 of 8 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Feb 28	Little RockAdjEM #300	A	L 70–89	+6.0	L−13.0	139.5	O159	104.5	132.8	67.0
Feb 24	Morehead StAdjEM #266	A	L 63–64	+7.5	W+6.5	142.5	U127	104.0	105.7	60.5
Feb 21	E IllinoisAdjEM #317	A	W 70–68	+4.5	W+6.5	136.0	O138	106.9	103.9	65.5
Feb 19	W IllinoisAdjEM #362	A	W 77–70	−2.5	W+4.5	140.0	O147	116.7	106.1	66.0
Feb 14	Tennessee TechAdjEM #298	H	L 74–82	−1.0	L−9.0	139.5	O156	114.9	127.3	64.4
Feb 12	Tennessee StAdjEM #155	H	L 71–73	+6.0	W+4.0	148.5	U144	107.2	110.2	66.2
Feb 7	SE MissouriAdjEM #209	A	L 65–90	+11.0	L−14.0	140.5	O155	96.2	133.2	67.6
Feb 5	UT MartinAdjEM #182	A	L 54–76	+11.5	L−10.5	132.0	U130	84.0	118.3	64.3
Jan 31	SIUEAdjEM #229	H	L 46–58	+2.0	L−10.0	130.5	U104	76.2	96.1	60.4
Jan 29	LindenwoodAdjEM #244	H	L 60–73	+5.0	L−8.0	151.0	U133	77.3	94.0	77.6

Indiana St

Against the spread

Season

18-12

Home

7-6

Road

10-5

Last 10

5-5

avg cover +0.4

Covered 2 straightCovered 4 of 8 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

13-17

Home

5-8

Road

7-8

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total −5.0

Under 3 straightOver in 3 of 8 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 5	ValparaisoAdjEM #176	N	L 62–63	+2.5	W+1.5	142.0	U125	103.9	105.6	59.7
Mar 1	UICAdjEM #99	H	W 79–63	+4.0	W+20.0	144.0	U142	117.0	93.3	67.5
Feb 25	S IllinoisAdjEM #107	A	L 55–66	+8.0	L−3.0	149.0	U121	77.8	93.4	70.7
Feb 21	BelmontAdjEM #54	A	L 70–87	+13.0	L−4.0	156.0	O157	95.9	119.2	73.0
Feb 18	Northern IowaAdjEM #64	H	L 60–81	+5.0	L−16.0	135.5	O141	92.3	124.6	65.0
Feb 15	ValparaisoAdjEM #176	A	L 75–76	+5.0	W+4.0	145.0	O151	122.8	124.4	61.1
Feb 12	Murray StAdjEM #108	H	L 72–74	+3.5	W+1.5	164.0	U146	110.9	114.0	64.9
Feb 9	S IllinoisAdjEM #107	H	L 65–80	+1.5	L−13.5	147.5	U145	87.1	107.2	74.7
Feb 3	EvansvilleAdjEM #327	A	W 84–63	−1.0	W+20.0	145.0	O147	134.0	100.5	62.7
Jan 31	ValparaisoAdjEM #176	H	L 72–76 OT	−2.5	L−6.5	145.0	O148	101.2	106.8	71.2

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

S IndianaIndiana St

Efficiency

100.1

106.3

110.6

108.1

68.6

68.8

—

Shooting

43.7%

52.8%

43.0%

57.4%

29.9%

31.5%

66.6%

67.8%

37.2%

27.4%

Ball control & glass

17.2%

19.5%

16.4%

14.9%

31.4%

26.2%

33.8%

31.8%

9.5%

11.4%

14.1%

13.4%

Style

39.7%

45.2%

38.0%

48.3%

14.7%

12.2%

43.0%

64.9%

35.3%

33.9%

Roster

3.41

3.33

6'4.7"

6'5.3"

—

91.7%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

S Indiana

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted S Indiana's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Indiana St

Returning minutes: 91.7%Returning production: 93.1%

Lost

Jo Van Buggenhout 16.9 mpg, 5.1 ppg · transferred to Sacred Heart

Added

Martin Kaupanger no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 92% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Sun, Dec 7	2025-26	S Indiana 55 – 77 Indiana St

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.