CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceNeutral siteMassMutual Center, Springfield, MABasketball Hall of Fame Classic

UMass

Efficiency #184

2025-26: 17-16 · 8-12 conf

Wake Forest

Efficiency #76

2025-26: 18-17 · 8-12 conf

Sun, Dec 6 · TBD

75.6

win 33%

Projected

80.5

win 67%

No line posted yet.

Model: WAKE −4.9 · total 156.1 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Wake Forest 69.0, UMass 70.2 → 70.8 possessions

+5.4

Wake Forest offense vs UMass defense

+3.7

UMass offense vs Wake Forest defense

−1.3

Projected total

156.1

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Wake Forest offense vs UMass defense

+3.7

UMass offense vs Wake Forest defense

+1.3

Wake Forest by 4.9

4.9

UMass side ◂▸ Wake Forest side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 156.0 against a projected 156.1, and the margin steps add to +5.0 against +4.9. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Wake Forest.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 70.8, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, UMass is the faster team (71.0, #52 of 365) and Wake Forest the slower (69.4, #120). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

70.8

per team, 40 min

Projected total

156.1

model

Projected team totals

75.6 / 80.5

UMass / Wake Forest

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

70.2#36

UMass

69.0#125

Wake Forest

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

Pace

Track meet

Wake Forest averages 69.4 possessions per 40, UMass 71.0. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 71 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

AdvantageWake Forest

Where Wake Forest scores: shooting

Wake Forest shoots an effective 52.7% (#117); UMass allows 52.9% (#262). Expect about 52.9%, 1.6 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.3 points per 100 possessions.

ClashUMass

Style match: ball movement

UMass assists on 58.4% of its made baskets; Wake Forest allows assists on 56.9% of opponents' baskets (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 59.2% — both habits push the same way.

AdvantageUMass

Where UMass scores: the offensive glass

UMass rebounds 33.3% of its own misses (#80); Wake Forest lets opponents grab 33.0% of their own misses (#298). Expect about 33.7%, 3.3 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.0 points per 100 possessions.

ClashWake Forest

Style match: 3-point volume

Wake Forest takes 43.6% of its shots from three; UMass lets opponents take 42.7% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 44.8% — both habits push the same way.

ClashUMass

Style clash: 3-point volume

UMass rarely shoots threes (35.4% of its shots); Wake Forest lets opponents take 46.6% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 40.8% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).

UMass has the ball

OffenseWake Forest allowsvs D1 avg

53.1% #99

51.8% #202

+1.9 pt/100

17.8% #263

17.7% #115

-1.5 pt/100

33.3% #80

33.0% #298

+2.0 pt/100

37.0% #130

35.7% #203

+0.2 pt/100

67.3% #339

—

-0.4 pt/100

UMass net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +2.1 pts/100

Wake Forest has the ball

OffenseUMass allowsvs D1 avg

52.7% #117

52.9% #262

+2.3 pt/100

15.5% #106

16.8% #167

+0.8 pt/100

30.1% #196

26.1% #20

-1.4 pt/100

35.2% #170

44.6% #348

+0.7 pt/100

77.6% #22

—

+0.5 pt/100

Wake Forest net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +3.0 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

UMassoffense vsWake Forestdefense

Share of shots by zone

UMass shoots

39.4

8.9

16.3

35.4

Wake Forest allows

36.1

5.6

11.2

47.2

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	59.7%#127	60.3%#244	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	45.8%#53	35.8%#85	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	41.6%#68	38.5%#183	38.0%
Three	35.2%#100	32.9%#117	33.7%

Wake Forestoffense vsUMassdefense

Share of shots by zone

Wake Forest shoots

33.8

6.0

16.4

43.8

UMass allows

38.1

6.4

13.3

42.2

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	62.0%#70	63.2%#329	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	41.9%#126	45.5%#313	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	39.0%#145	37.6%#149	38.0%
Three	34.1%#166	33.0%#121	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

UMass

−0.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#184 of 365

Off reb %

33.3%

#80

Def reb %

73.9%

#20

Turnover %

17.8%

#263

Forced TO %

16.8%

#167

FT rate

37.0%

#130

FT allowed

44.6%

#348

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.9

Defensive rebounding+1.4

Ball security−0.7

Forcing turnovers+0.1

Foul shots drawn+0.5

Foul shots allowed−2.4

Wake Forest

+0.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#156 of 365

Off reb %

30.1%

#196

Def reb %

67.0%

#298

Turnover %

15.5%

#106

Forced TO %

17.7%

#115

FT rate

35.2%

#170

FT allowed

35.7%

#203

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.1

Defensive rebounding−0.8

Ball security+0.9

Forcing turnovers+0.7

Foul shots drawn0.0

Foul shots allowed−0.1

Wake Forest has more extra scoring chances per game: +0.6 (#156 of 365) to UMass’s −0.2 (#184).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

UMass2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
24	Marcus Banks Jr.	G	Sr	6'3"	33-33	33.0	16.7	2.6	1.8	1.3	54.1%	37.8%	9.0	83.3%	27.3%
3	Leonardo Bettiol	F	Sr	6'9"	33-33	28.7	18.1	7.8	2.1	2.7	61.2%	33.3%	0.1	70.3%	33.0%
0	Danny Carbuccia	G	Fr	5'11"	33-27	27.6	6.8	1.8	6.3	1.9	46.7%	24.6%	1.7	38.8%	19.1%
11	Jayden Ndjigue	G	Jr	6'4"	33-33	26.8	6.5	5.4	1.9	1.5	52.7%	23.1%	0.8	70.5%	15.0%
1	Daniel Hankins-Sanford	F	Sr	6'8"	30-30	28.6	11.3	7.1	1.4	1.3	48.4%	25.5%	1.7	62.2%	24.4%
2	Dwayne Wimbley Jr.	F	Fr	6'6"	33-2	14.0	2.3	2.2	0.5	0.9	34.5%	18.4%	1.2	56.3%	16.2%
13	Luka Damjanac	F	So	6'10"	29-0	10.4	2.5	2.6	0.7	0.6	62.2%	27.3%	0.4	64.7%	13.7%
4	Isaiah Placide	G	Sr	6'4"	27-0	9.2	4.0	1.0	0.3	0.3	53.5%	41.7%	2.2	69.2%	24.1%
25	Dimitri Clerc	F	Jr	6'10"	25-1	9.0	3.4	2.8	0.2	0.8	61.8%	—	0.0	42.1%	22.6%
10	Donovan Brown	G	Sr	6'2"	16-0	5.5	0.8	0.4	0.4	0.4	29.5%	25.0%	0.8	—	17.5%
22	Charles Outlaw	F	Jr	6'9"	8-0	3.5	1.5	1.0	0.0	0.3	50.0%	—	0.0	40.0%	27.8%
44	Rollie Castineyra	G	So	6'2"	4-0	4.8	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	1.3	—	14.4%
7	Bilal Osman	F	Fr	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
9	Josh Engel	G	Fr	6'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Wake Forest2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
2	Juke Harris	G	So	6'7"	35-35	35.2	21.4	6.5	1.9	1.7	52.7%	33.2%	7.5	78.3%	33.1%
6	Myles Colvin	G	Jr	6'5"	35-24	27.2	11.6	4.4	1.4	1.7	50.0%	36.0%	4.7	87.0%	25.5%
0	Omaha Biliew	F	Jr	6'8"	35-24	20.2	6.3	2.4	0.5	0.7	56.7%	36.8%	2.5	79.4%	16.7%
8	Mekhi Mason	G	Sr	6'5"	34-12	20.1	7.4	2.6	1.4	1.0	50.0%	33.8%	4.0	67.7%	22.9%
1	Nate Calmese	G	Sr	6'2"	26-23	24.7	10.3	1.9	4.5	1.8	55.5%	39.8%	4.0	77.4%	25.0%
10	Sebastian Akins	G	So	6'2"	35-8	15.1	5.3	1.5	1.9	1.2	43.3%	18.0%	1.4	77.8%	24.8%
7	Isaac Carr	G	Fr	6'4"	23-4	12.8	2.5	1.9	1.3	0.7	47.0%	31.3%	0.7	62.5%	15.0%
11	Marqus Marion	F	So	6'9"	20-0	12.1	1.4	2.3	0.7	0.3	42.0%	9.1%	0.6	61.5%	8.3%
23	Jaylen Cross	F	Fr	6'4"	12-0	5.5	2.0	1.1	0.4	0.5	50.0%	60.0%	0.4	71.4%	23.7%
9	Vincent Ricchiuti	F	Jr	6'6"	4-0	2.0	1.5	0.0	0.0	0.3	75.0%	50.0%	1.0	—	34.8%
4	Will Underwood	G	Jr	6'3"	4-0	1.8	0.0	0.5	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%
30	Anson Beard Jr.	G	Fr	6'5"	3-0	2.0	0.0	0.3	0.0	0.3	—	—	0.0	—	9.2%
44	Owen Kmety	F	Jr	6'7"	2-0	1.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0%	—	0.0	—	28.9%
33	Dimitrije Kovacevic	F	Fr	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

UMass2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
24	Marcus Banks Jr.	G	Sr	6'3"	33-33	33.0	16.7	2.6	1.8	1.3	54.1%	37.8%	9.0	83.3%	27.3%
3	Leonardo Bettiol	F	Sr	6'9"	33-33	28.7	18.1	7.8	2.1	2.7	61.2%	33.3%	0.1	70.3%	33.0%
0	Danny Carbuccia	G	Fr	5'11"	33-27	27.6	6.8	1.8	6.3	1.9	46.7%	24.6%	1.7	38.8%	19.1%
11	Jayden Ndjigue	G	Jr	6'4"	33-33	26.8	6.5	5.4	1.9	1.5	52.7%	23.1%	0.8	70.5%	15.0%
1	Daniel Hankins-Sanford	F	Sr	6'8"	30-30	28.6	11.3	7.1	1.4	1.3	48.4%	25.5%	1.7	62.2%	24.4%
2	Dwayne Wimbley Jr.	F	Fr	6'6"	33-2	14.0	2.3	2.2	0.5	0.9	34.5%	18.4%	1.2	56.3%	16.2%
13	Luka Damjanac	F	So	6'10"	29-0	10.4	2.5	2.6	0.7	0.6	62.2%	27.3%	0.4	64.7%	13.7%
4	Isaiah Placide	G	Sr	6'4"	27-0	9.2	4.0	1.0	0.3	0.3	53.5%	41.7%	2.2	69.2%	24.1%
25	Dimitri Clerc	F	Jr	6'10"	25-1	9.0	3.4	2.8	0.2	0.8	61.8%	—	0.0	42.1%	22.6%
10	Donovan Brown	G	Sr	6'2"	16-0	5.5	0.8	0.4	0.4	0.4	29.5%	25.0%	0.8	—	17.5%
22	Charles Outlaw	F	Jr	6'9"	8-0	3.5	1.5	1.0	0.0	0.3	50.0%	—	0.0	40.0%	27.8%
44	Rollie Castineyra	G	So	6'2"	4-0	4.8	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	1.3	—	14.4%
7	Bilal Osman	F	Fr	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
9	Josh Engel	G	Fr	6'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

UMass

Against the spread

Season

13-19

Home

5-10

Road

4-6

Last 10

3-7

avg cover −2.8

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 1 of 5 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 5 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

20-12

Home

9-6

Road

7-3

Last 10

7-3

avg vs total +11.7

Under in the last gameOver in 5 of 5 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 5 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 13	ToledoAdjEM #115	N	L 67–77	+3.0	L−7.0	158.0	U144	95.3	109.5	70.3
Mar 12	#20Miami OHAdjEM #66	N	W 87–83	+8.0	W+12.0	163.5	O170	126.0	120.2	69.0
Mar 3	OhioAdjEM #233	H	W 94–82	−1.5	W+10.5	156.5	O176	122.6	106.9	76.7
Feb 28	Bowling GreenAdjEM #114	A	L 62–81	+4.0	L−15.0	151.5	U143	94.5	123.5	65.6
Feb 24	Ball StateAdjEM #295	A	L 73–74 OT	−4.5	L−5.5	143.5	O147	99.3	100.6	73.5
Feb 21	BuffaloAdjEM #186	H	L 82–86 OT	−7.5	L−11.5	154.0	O168	113.3	118.9	72.3
Feb 17	#22Miami OHAdjEM #66	H	L 77–86	+3.0	L−6.0	163.5	U163	109.0	121.7	70.6
Feb 13	AkronAdjEM #48	A	L 92–99	+13.0	W+6.0	162.5	O191	117.6	126.5	78.3
Feb 7	CoastalAdjEM #241	A	L 91–94 3OT	−2.5	L−5.5	148.5	O185	108.6	112.2	83.8
Feb 3	C MichiganAdjEM #283	H	W 95–89	−11.5	L−5.5	152.5	O184	136.0	127.4	69.8

Wake Forest

Against the spread

Season

16-18-1

Home

8-11-1

Road

4-5

Last 10

5-4-1

avg cover −0.7

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 6 as a favorite, 1 pushCovered 2 of 4 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

20-15

Home

14-6

Road

3-6

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total +5.3

Over 2 straightOver in 4 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 1 of 4 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 22	Illinois StAdjEM #80	H	L 75–78	−8.0	L−11.0	152.5	O153	108.0	112.3	69.5
Mar 18	NavyAdjEM #104	H	W 82–72	−10.0	P0.0	147.5	O154	124.1	109.0	66.1
Mar 11	ClemsonAdjEM #35	N	L 62–71	+5.5	L−3.5	142.0	U133	103.9	119.0	59.6
Mar 10	Virginia TechAdjEM #61	N	W 95–89 OT	−1.0	W+5.0	151.5	O184	126.6	118.6	75.0
Mar 7	CaliforniaAdjEM #79	H	W 80–73	−6.0	W+1.0	154.0	U153	109.6	100.1	73.0
Mar 3	#13VirginiaAdjEM #15	A	L 70–75	+14.0	W+9.0	149.5	U145	102.9	110.3	68.0
Feb 28	SyracuseAdjEM #85	H	W 88–83	−4.0	W+1.0	152.0	O171	135.2	127.5	65.1
Feb 25	Boston CollegeAdjEM #187	A	L 67–68	−4.0	L−5.0	144.5	U135	105.3	106.9	63.6
Feb 21	Virginia TechAdjEM #61	A	L 63–82	+4.0	L−15.0	148.5	U145	104.0	135.3	60.6
Feb 18	ClemsonAdjEM #35	H	W 85–77	+4.0	W+12.0	140.0	O162	127.6	115.6	66.6

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

UMassWake Forest

Efficiency

108.4

113.1

109.1

106.7

70.2

69.0

—

Shooting

53.1%

52.7%

53.2%

53.9%

35.2%

34.1%

67.3%

77.6%

37.0%

35.2%

Ball control & glass

17.8%

15.5%

16.8%

17.7%

33.3%

30.1%

26.1%

33.0%

10.2%

8.9%

7.6%

8.3%

Style

35.4%

43.6%

46.0%

39.9%

12.9%

11.1%

58.4%

53.5%

29.1%

32.7%

Roster

3.03

2.74

6'5.1"

6'5.3"

89.8%

75.9%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

UMass

Returning minutes: 89.8%Returning production: 88.2%

Lost

K'Jei Parker 20.8 mpg, 10.7 ppg · transferred to Ball State

Added

Bilal Osman no D1 minutes last season
Josh Engel no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 90% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Wake Forest

Returning minutes: 75.9%Returning production: 74.4%

Lost

Tre'Von Spillers 29.1 mpg, 11.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Cooper Schwieger 19.7 mpg, 4.9 ppg · transferred to Florida St

Added

Dimitrije Kovacevic no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 76% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.