CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Conference gameGallagher Center, Niagara Falls, NY
Rider
Efficiency #356
2025-26: 4-25 · 3-17 conf
@
Niagara
Efficiency #337
2025-26: 8-22 · 5-15 conf
Sun, Dec 6 · 2:00 PM ET
65.3
win 30%
Projected
71.5
win 70%
No line posted yet.
Model: NIA −6.2 · total 136.8 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Niagara 65.0, Rider 67.2 → 63.9 possessions
−9.6
Niagara offense vs Rider defense
+0.4
Rider offense vs Niagara defense
−2.2
Projected total
136.8
Axis starts at 130 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Niagara offense vs Rider defense
+0.4
Rider offense vs Niagara defense
+2.2
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.7
Niagara by 6.2
6.2
Rider side ◂▸ Niagara side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +6.3 against +6.2. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Niagara.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 63.9, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Rider is the faster team (65.7, #309 of 365) and Niagara the slower (63.1, #363). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
63.9
per team, 40 min
Projected total
136.8
model
Projected team totals
65.3 / 71.5
Rider / Niagara
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
67.2#273
Rider
65.0#364
Niagara

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageRider
Where Rider struggles: shooting
Rider shoots an effective 42.8% (#365); Niagara allows 52.8% (#260). Expect about 47.1%, 4.1 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -5.9 points per 100 possessions.
Pace
Half-court grind
Niagara averages 63.1 possessions per 40, Rider 65.7. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 62 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
AdvantageNiagara
Where Niagara scores: shooting
Niagara shoots an effective 50.5% (#214); Rider allows 55.2% (#335). Expect about 52.8%, 1.5 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.2 points per 100 possessions.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Rider, Rider's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Rider at about 30.5% of its shots from three, Niagara about 40.6%.
GlassRider
Rider owns the glass
Projected offensive rebound rate of 33.2% is worth roughly +1.7 points per 100 possessions for Rider's offense.
GlassNiagara
Niagara gets out-rebounded
Projected offensive rebound rate of 27.6% is worth roughly -1.7 points per 100 possessions against Niagara's offense.
Rider has the ball
OffenseNiagara allowsvs D1 avg
42.8% #365
52.8% #260
-5.9 pt/100
16.9% #196
16.6% #179
+0.0 pt/100
32.6% #101
32.9% #297
+1.7 pt/100
30.1% #307
33.8% #144
-0.4 pt/100
70.1% #270
—
-0.2 pt/100
Rider net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -4.8 pts/100
Niagara has the ball
OffenseRider allowsvs D1 avg
50.5% #214
55.2% #335
+2.2 pt/100
18.9% #319
15.3% #268
-0.3 pt/100
24.8% #344
32.8% #294
-1.7 pt/100
26.6% #353
32.5% #116
-0.7 pt/100
72.2% #203
—
-0.0 pt/100
Niagara net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -0.6 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Rideroffense vsNiagaradefense
Share of shots by zone
Rider shoots
Niagara allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim49.2%#36458.7%#17658.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)41.5%#13041.5%#22539.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)36.9%#22740.6%#26038.0%
Three27.7%#36535.3%#26833.7%
Niagaraoffense vsRiderdefense
Share of shots by zone
Niagara shoots
Rider allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim54.1%#32057.0%#11158.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)31.3%#33940.6%#20339.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)40.0%#10944.7%#34638.0%
Three33.7%#18837.9%#35633.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Rider
−1.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#258 of 365
Off reb %
32.6%
#101
Def reb %
67.2%
#294
Turnover %
16.9%
#196
Forced TO %
15.3%
#268
FT rate
30.1%
#307
FT allowed
32.5%
#116
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.7
Defensive rebounding−0.7
Ball security−0.1
Forcing turnovers−1.0
Foul shots drawn−1.3
Foul shots allowed+0.7
Niagara
−5.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#356 of 365
Off reb %
24.8%
#344
Def reb %
67.1%
#297
Turnover %
18.9%
#319
Forced TO %
16.6%
#179
FT rate
26.6%
#353
FT allowed
33.8%
#144
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.8
Defensive rebounding−0.7
Ball security−1.5
Forcing turnovers−0.1
Foul shots drawn−2.2
Foul shots allowed+0.4

Rider has more extra scoring chances per game: −1.6 (#258 of 365) to Niagara’s −5.9 (#356).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Rider2025-26 numbers
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
10Mark Butlerat LafayetteGSr5'10"32-3233.910.72.24.21.143.7%25.0%0.676.0%20.9%
22Khalil Farmerat UMass LowellGSr6'4"33-014.23.81.50.50.543.2%32.1%1.761.7%18.3%
55Bryce Bakerat CharlestonGSr6'5"8-013.31.61.50.40.426.1%10.5%2.450.0%14.9%
23Horace Simmons Jr.at DrexelFJr6'6"13-06.81.70.90.40.432.8%18.8%1.275.0%22.8%
5Ty Bevinsat G WashingtonGJr6'6"10-07.61.91.30.20.342.1%26.7%1.575.0%17.0%
13Rich Briscoat AkronFSo6'8"8-03.11.30.90.00.450.0%—0.0—27.2%
14Kam Wylieat 2598FSo6'8"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
24Bryce PresleyGFr6'5"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
11JJ WashingtonGFr6'2"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
9Mikes ConnellyGFr6'3"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
3Nasir WashingtonGJr6'3"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
2Richie RosaGFr6'0"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
0Segun Ezekiel ObeFSo6'10"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
8Stephen Avegah SemeyCJr6'8"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Transfers in: Bryce Baker (from Charleston), Ty Bevins (from G Washington), Rich Brisco (from Akron), Mark Butler (from Lafayette), Khalil Farmer (from UMass Lowell), Horace Simmons Jr. (from Drexel), Kam Wylie (from 2598)

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
RiderNiagara
Efficiency
100.0
102.5
115.1
113.6
67.2
65.0
—
—
Shooting
42.8%
50.5%
43.3%
50.5%
27.7%
33.7%
70.1%
72.2%
30.1%
26.6%
Ball control & glass
16.9%
18.9%
15.3%
16.6%
32.6%
24.8%
32.8%
32.9%
9.9%
10.4%
8.3%
9.7%
Style
27.5%
40.5%
43.2%
45.0%
12.6%
10.1%
44.3%
60.0%
33.0%
37.6%
Roster
3.88
3.67
6'0.8"
6'3.4"
0.0%
10.2%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Rider
Returning minutes: 0.0%Returning production: 0.0%
Lost
  • Flash Burton 32.1 mpg, 15.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Zion Cruz 30.4 mpg, 12.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Caleb Smith 29.8 mpg, 7.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Shemani Fuller 21.4 mpg, 6.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Davis Bynum 18.3 mpg, 5.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Cole McCabe 12.2 mpg, 2.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • Mark Butler from Lafayette · 33.9 mpg, 10.7 ppg last season
  • Khalil Farmer from UMass Lowell · 14.2 mpg, 3.8 ppg last season
  • Bryce Baker from Charleston · 3.3 mpg, 0.4 ppg last season
  • Horace Simmons Jr. from Drexel · 2.7 mpg, 0.7 ppg last season
  • Ty Bevins from G Washington · 2.2 mpg, 0.5 ppg last season
  • Rich Brisco from Akron · 0.7 mpg, 0.3 ppg last season

Returns 0% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Niagara
Returning minutes: 10.2%Returning production: 8.3%
Lost
  • Reggie Prudhomme 26.4 mpg, 6.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Justin Hawkins 26.2 mpg, 8.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Justin Page 21.1 mpg, 8.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Vice Zanki 20.3 mpg, 7.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Josiah Sabino 19.6 mpg, 6.6 ppg · transferred to Manhattan
  • Will Shortt 19.5 mpg, 6.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • Cole Farrell from Long Beach St · 20.7 mpg, 6.4 ppg last season
  • Logan Woods from Wright St · 18.4 mpg, 5.3 ppg last season
  • Bastien Rieber from Fresno St · 16.4 mpg, 4.0 ppg last season
  • Tae Blackshear from Youngstown St · 13.7 mpg, 6.3 ppg last season
  • Vukasin Todorovic from Green Bay · 5.9 mpg, 1.7 ppg last season
  • Brian Angeletti no D1 minutes last season

Returns 10% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last
DateSeasonResult
Sun, Feb 222025-26Niagara 62 – 67 Rider

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.