CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceAvron B. Fogelman Arena in the Devlin Fieldhouse, New Orleans, LA
Louisiana
Efficiency #318
2025-26: 11-22 · 8-12 conf
@
Tulane
Efficiency #239
2025-26: 18-15 · 9-11 conf
Sun, Dec 6 · 2:00 PM ET
65.7
win 26%
Projected
73.2
win 74%
No line posted yet.
Model: TULN −7.5 · total 138.9 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Tulane 68.0, Louisiana 65.6 → 65.3 possessions
−6.5
Tulane offense vs Louisiana defense
+0.5
Louisiana offense vs Tulane defense
−3.2
Projected total
138.9
Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Tulane offense vs Louisiana defense
+0.5
Louisiana offense vs Tulane defense
+3.2
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.8
Tulane by 7.5
7.5
Louisiana side ◂▸ Tulane side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 139.0 against a projected 138.9. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Tulane.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 65.3, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Tulane is the faster team (67.9, #203 of 365) and Louisiana the slower (64.1, #354). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
65.3
per team, 40 min
Projected total
138.9
model
Projected team totals
65.7 / 73.2
Louisiana / Tulane
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
65.6#353
Louisiana
68.0#212
Tulane

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageLouisiana
Where Louisiana struggles: shooting
Louisiana shoots an effective 47.1% (#334); Tulane allows 50.7% (#140). Expect about 48.6%, 2.7 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.9 points per 100 possessions.
Pace
Half-court grind
Tulane averages 67.9 possessions per 40, Louisiana 64.1. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 65 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
AdvantageTulane
Where Tulane struggles: the offensive glass
Tulane rebounds 22.8% of its own misses (#352); Louisiana lets opponents grab 32.3% of their own misses (#272). Expect about 26.0%, 4.4 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.7 points per 100 possessions.
ClashLouisiana
Strength vs strength: shot-blocking exposure
Louisiana (#59 in shot-blocking exposure) against Tulane (#29 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 11.1%. Historically Tulane's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.41 vs 0.68).
ClashTulane
Style clash: 3-point volume
Tulane takes 45.0% of its shots from three; Louisiana runs teams off the line (36.2% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 41.8% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).
Louisiana has the ball
OffenseTulane allowsvs D1 avg
47.1% #334
50.7% #140
-3.9 pt/100
16.8% #185
17.1% #140
-0.3 pt/100
28.3% #251
35.8% #352
+0.7 pt/100
28.7% #334
38.1% #262
-0.2 pt/100
70.4% #261
—
-0.2 pt/100
Louisiana net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -3.7 pts/100
Tulane has the ball
OffenseLouisiana allowsvs D1 avg
49.4% #275
52.6% #247
-0.6 pt/100
15.4% #97
18.3% #85
-0.3 pt/100
22.8% #352
32.3% #272
-2.7 pt/100
43.5% #14
45.8% #352
+1.3 pt/100
76.7% #40
—
+0.4 pt/100
Tulane net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -1.8 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Louisianaoffense vsTulanedefense
Share of shots by zone
Louisiana shoots
Tulane allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim51.4%#35254.5%#4958.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)43.5%#9242.4%#23639.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)37.6%#19736.8%#12438.0%
Three33.6%#18934.5%#21633.7%
Tulaneoffense vsLouisianadefense
Share of shots by zone
Tulane shoots
Louisiana allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim59.0%#16258.4%#16158.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)27.0%#36243.5%#25939.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)32.6%#33532.4%#2038.0%
Three32.0%#27935.6%#28633.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Louisiana
−4.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#338 of 365
Off reb %
28.3%
#251
Def reb %
67.7%
#272
Turnover %
16.8%
#185
Forced TO %
18.3%
#85
FT rate
28.7%
#334
FT allowed
45.8%
#352
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.7
Defensive rebounding−0.5
Ball security0.0
Forcing turnovers+1.1
Foul shots drawn−1.6
Foul shots allowed−2.7
Tulane
−1.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#255 of 365
Off reb %
22.8%
#352
Def reb %
64.2%
#352
Turnover %
15.4%
#97
Forced TO %
17.1%
#140
FT rate
43.5%
#14
FT allowed
38.1%
#262
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−2.5
Defensive rebounding−1.7
Ball security+0.9
Forcing turnovers+0.3
Foul shots drawn+2.2
Foul shots allowed−0.7

Tulane has more extra scoring chances per game: −1.5 (#255 of 365) to Louisiana’s −4.4 (#338).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Louisiana2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Louisiana's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
3Dorian FinisterGJr6'5"31-3132.514.94.61.91.850.7%37.0%3.574.4%29.1%
6De'Vion LavergneGSo6'3"33-3030.39.93.32.81.542.9%30.5%4.071.0%25.5%
10Jaxon OlveraGSo6'5"33-2029.213.74.51.92.446.0%35.6%4.872.0%35.4%
24Milan MejiaGSr6'2"29-1922.03.61.30.70.545.2%32.0%3.333.3%12.6%
4Dariyus WoodsonFSr6'7"33-718.85.82.50.60.757.0%38.6%3.162.2%18.8%
2Todd Jones Jr.FSo6'9"33-2416.53.13.90.30.658.6%0.0%0.055.9%12.4%
8Karris BilalGFr6'3"21-520.85.62.00.40.437.5%26.5%2.378.9%20.1%
5Joshua LewisFFr6'7"18-1522.68.13.80.70.961.0%44.4%2.577.3%20.0%
0Jeremiah EvansFSo6'10"32-710.93.02.00.30.949.3%—0.070.7%20.8%
7Mike CollinsGFr6'1"31-29.21.40.71.00.325.0%8.0%0.863.2%17.4%
23Kyran RatliffFJr6'8"31-38.61.01.70.30.339.4%30.8%0.455.6%10.6%
14Jamyron KellerGJr6'3"2-229.517.02.03.01.543.3%30.8%6.566.7%41.8%
12Michael MoutonGSo6'4"6-02.50.30.20.30.025.0%—0.0—16.2%
13Christian LandryGJr6'5"2-01.50.00.00.00.0——0.0—0.0%
22Logan MyersGFr6'3"2-01.50.00.00.00.00.0%—0.0—20.6%
—Rahman OlajuwonFSo6'8"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
33Sean ElkintonFSr6'8"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
1Zeke CookFSr6'6"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
LouisianaTulane
Efficiency
101.8
106.8
110.9
110.2
65.6
68.0
—
—
Shooting
47.1%
49.4%
44.8%
50.5%
33.6%
32.0%
70.4%
76.7%
28.7%
43.5%
Ball control & glass
16.8%
15.4%
18.3%
17.1%
28.3%
22.8%
32.3%
35.8%
7.8%
8.7%
8.0%
10.9%
Style
40.5%
45.0%
34.8%
37.1%
10.5%
10.8%
45.9%
54.8%
33.1%
26.0%
Roster
2.41
2.94
6'5.1"
6'5.5"
—
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Louisiana
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Louisiana's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Tulane
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Tulane's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
DateSeasonResult
Tue, Nov 112025-26Tulane 66 – 62 Louisiana

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.