CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceClune Arena, Colorado Springs, CO
Navy
Efficiency #104
2025-26: 26-8 · 18-2 conf
@
Air Force
Efficiency #360
2025-26: 3-29 · 0-21 conf
Sun, Dec 6 · 2:00 PM ET
73.6
win 79%
Projected
64.2
win 21%
No line posted yet.
Model: NAVY −9.4 · total 137.9 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Air Force 67.6, Navy 66.8 → 66.1 possessions
−4.7
Air Force offense vs Navy defense
−9.4
Navy offense vs Air Force defense
+3.8
Projected total
137.9
Axis starts at 120 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Air Force offense vs Navy defense
−9.4
Navy offense vs Air Force defense
−3.8
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.8
Navy by 9.4
9.4
Navy side ◂▸ Air Force side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Air Force.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 66.1, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Air Force is the faster team (67.4, #227 of 365) and Navy the slower (65.2, #327). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
66.1
per team, 40 min
Projected total
137.9
model
Projected team totals
73.6 / 64.2
Navy / Air Force
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
66.8#301
Navy
67.6#242
Air Force
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageNavy
Where Navy scores: shooting
Navy shoots an effective 53.1% (#100); Air Force allows 56.4% (#350). Expect about 54.9%, 3.6 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +5.2 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageAir Force
Where Air Force struggles: ball control
Air Force turns it over on 21.9% of possessions (#361); Navy forces turnovers on 18.3% of opponent possessions (#83). Expect about 20.7%, 3.9 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -4.8 points per 100 possessions.
GlassAir Force
Air Force gets out-rebounded
Projected offensive rebound rate of 22.7% is worth roughly -4.7 points per 100 possessions against Air Force's offense.
Pace
Half-court grind
Air Force averages 67.4 possessions per 40, Navy 65.2. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 65 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Air Force, Air Force's defense, Navy's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Navy at about 34.0% of its shots from three, Air Force about 45.6%.
Navy has the ball
OffenseAir Force allowsvs D1 avg
53.1% #100
56.4% #350
+5.2 pt/100
16.8% #190
15.1% #281
+1.3 pt/100
31.9% #126
31.3% #215
+0.9 pt/100
38.8% #82
36.6% #227
+0.3 pt/100
73.6% #145
—
+0.1 pt/100
Navy net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +7.8 pts/100
Air Force has the ball
OffenseNavy allowsvs D1 avg
48.9% #292
48.3% #42
-4.2 pt/100
21.9% #361
18.3% #83
-4.8 pt/100
21.4% #360
27.4% #49
-4.7 pt/100
35.1% #174
26.0% #13
-0.7 pt/100
64.1% #364
—
-0.7 pt/100
Air Force net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -15.1 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersNavyoffense vsAir Forcedefense
Share of shots by zone
Navy shoots
42.2
6.0
19.4
32.4
Air Force allows
38.1
6.5
16.8
38.6
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 59.8%#123 | 62.7%#319 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 48.4%#19 | 45.5%#309 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 38.5%#172 | 42.1%#309 | 38.0% |
| Three | 35.8%#64 | 37.6%#352 | 33.7% |
Air Forceoffense vsNavydefense
Share of shots by zone
Air Force shoots
38.6
7.1
12.7
41.6
Navy allows
29.4
7.8
17.3
45.5
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 59.3%#152 | 61.7%#295 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 29.5%#351 | 36.1%#91 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 33.9%#314 | 38.0%#159 | 38.0% |
| Three | 30.6%#332 | 30.0%#7 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersNavy
+6.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#14 of 365
Off reb %
31.9%
#126
Def reb %
72.6%
#49
Turnover %
16.8%
#190
Forced TO %
18.3%
#83
FT rate
38.8%
#82
FT allowed
26.0%
#13
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.5
Defensive rebounding+1.0
Ball security0.0
Forcing turnovers+1.1
Foul shots drawn+1.0
Foul shots allowed+2.4
Air Force
−8.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#363 of 365
Off reb %
21.4%
#360
Def reb %
68.7%
#215
Turnover %
21.9%
#361
Forced TO %
15.1%
#281
FT rate
35.1%
#174
FT allowed
36.6%
#227
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−2.9
Defensive rebounding−0.2
Ball security−3.5
Forcing turnovers−1.1
Foul shots drawn0.0
Foul shots allowed−0.3
Navy has more extra scoring chances per game: +6.0 (#14 of 365) to Air Force’s −8.0 (#363).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Navy2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Navy's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Austin Benigni | G | Sr | 5'11" | 34-34 | 36.1 | 18.0 | 3.4 | 4.4 | 2.8 | 49.2% | 44.1% | 4.0 | 88.0% | 31.6% | |
| 99 | Aidan Kehoe | C | Sr | 6'11" | 34-34 | 33.6 | 15.2 | 10.9 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 73.1% | — | 0.0 | 47.0% | 23.6% | |
| 10 | Jinwoo Kim | G | Jr | 6'3" | 34-33 | 30.5 | 9.9 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 50.0% | 40.6% | 4.1 | 83.6% | 20.1% | |
| 11 | Donovan Draper | F | Sr | 6'6" | 32-16 | 26.9 | 8.7 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 46.6% | 11.6% | 1.3 | 79.3% | 22.8% | |
| 21 | Jordan Pennick | G | Jr | 6'0" | 34-20 | 24.6 | 7.2 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 46.3% | 31.2% | 4.1 | 74.6% | 21.1% | |
| 30 | Mike Woods | F | Sr | 6'4" | 34-31 | 22.4 | 6.6 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 49.5% | 28.9% | 1.3 | 78.4% | 19.3% | |
| 2 | Cam Cole | G | Jr | 6'2" | 34-0 | 19.1 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 55.7% | 38.5% | 2.8 | 75.9% | 19.8% | |
| 7 | David Burnett | G | So | 6'4" | 18-0 | 6.5 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 54.3% | 25.0% | 0.2 | 45.5% | 17.3% | |
| 8 | Sam Krist | G | Sr | 6'5" | 15-1 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 64.3% | 40.0% | 0.7 | — | 20.9% | |
| 42 | Cooper Jackson | F | So | 6'7" | 17-0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 62.5% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 60.0% | 18.2% | |
| 0 | Nyles Howard | G | Jr | 6'4" | 11-0 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 0.2 | 75.0% | 25.6% | |
| 14 | Cam Cormany | G | Sr | 6'0" | 14-1 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 63.6% | 44.4% | 0.6 | 100.0% | 23.3% | |
| 25 | Jerry Ashley Jr. | F | Fr | 6'8" | 9-0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 66.7% | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 20.1% | |
| 3 | Julian Gabbidon | G | Jr | 6'3" | 7-0 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 60.0% | — | 0.0 | 100.0% | 33.2% | |
| 20 | Matt Gaffney | G | Fr | 5'11" | 4-0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0% | — | 0.0 | 100.0% | 23.2% | |
| 77 | Owen Gray | F | So | 6'9" | 4-0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | 100.0% | 7.4% | |
| 33 | Tobi Raji | F | So | 6'7" | 1-0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 0.0% | |
| 40 | C.J. Kearns | F | Fr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 22 | Colin Pollock | F | Fr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 18 | Davyn de Jongh | G | So | 6'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 32 | Jordan McConnell | C | Fr | 6'10" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 16 | Julien King | G | So | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 35 | Luke Morgan | F | Fr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 9 | Reiss Whitaker | F | Jr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 24 | Steven McLeod | G | Fr | 6'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Air Force2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Air Force's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Kam Sanders | G | Fr | 6'3" | 32-32 | 29.9 | 12.5 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 45.3% | 36.0% | 3.6 | 73.0% | 28.8% | |
| 24 | Lucas Hobin | F | Fr | 6'8" | 32-25 | 29.0 | 11.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 47.5% | 31.8% | 6.9 | 83.3% | 24.8% | |
| 30 | Eli Robinson | F | So | 6'6" | 31-31 | 28.0 | 7.8 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 52.2% | 35.9% | 1.3 | 65.8% | 19.2% | |
| 21 | Ethan Greenberg | G | Fr | 6'4" | 32-29 | 26.9 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 49.2% | 34.2% | 4.8 | 65.2% | 16.9% | |
| 51 | Wesley Celichowski | C | Jr | 7'0" | 32-29 | 20.7 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 43.5% | 16.4% | 1.9 | 53.3% | 18.2% | |
| 10 | Caleb Walker | F | Jr | 6'9" | 24-6 | 21.6 | 10.4 | 5.0 | 0.8 | 2.0 | 66.9% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 46.4% | 28.6% | |
| 2 | A.J. Patterson | G | So | 6'3" | 29-0 | 14.3 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 42.7% | 14.3% | 0.2 | 60.7% | 16.9% | |
| 32 | Kolby Gilles | F | Jr | 6'5" | 32-5 | 12.8 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 1.6 | 47.0% | 13.6% | 0.7 | 57.1% | 22.5% | |
| 15 | Justin Hinds | G | Fr | 6'5" | 29-3 | 11.5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 30.0% | 16.1% | 1.1 | 58.3% | 14.4% | |
| 5 | Riley Dering | F | Fr | 6'9" | 14-0 | 13.5 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 62.7% | 66.7% | 0.2 | 66.7% | 20.0% | |
| 35 | Kyle Marshall | G | So | 6'4" | 4-0 | 16.5 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 0.3 | 41.2% | 0.0% | 0.5 | 0.0% | 17.2% | |
| 11 | Brendan Martin | F | Fr | 6'6" | 12-0 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 52.4% | 26.7% | 1.3 | 0.0% | 21.4% | |
| 0 | Josh Gatete | F | Jr | 6'9" | 14-0 | 4.4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 21.4% | 25.0% | 0.3 | 50.0% | 18.0% | |
| 33 | Sam Imade | F | Fr | 6'7" | 10-0 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 40.0% | 50.0% | 0.4 | — | 17.7% | |
| 7 | Elliott Taite | G | So | 6'4" | 11-0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 69.2% | 57.1% | 0.6 | 0.0% | 42.2% | |
| 25 | Chris Catchings | G | Fr | 6'4" | 5-0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.4 | — | 24.2% | |
| 8 | Keaton Frisch | F | Fr | 6'6" | 1-0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 0.0% |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Navy2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Navy's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Austin Benigni | G | Sr | 5'11" | 34-34 | 36.1 | 18.0 | 3.4 | 4.4 | 2.8 | 49.2% | 44.1% | 4.0 | 88.0% | 31.6% | |
| 99 | Aidan Kehoe | C | Sr | 6'11" | 34-34 | 33.6 | 15.2 | 10.9 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 73.1% | — | 0.0 | 47.0% | 23.6% | |
| 10 | Jinwoo Kim | G | Jr | 6'3" | 34-33 | 30.5 | 9.9 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 50.0% | 40.6% | 4.1 | 83.6% | 20.1% | |
| 11 | Donovan Draper | F | Sr | 6'6" | 32-16 | 26.9 | 8.7 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 46.6% | 11.6% | 1.3 | 79.3% | 22.8% | |
| 21 | Jordan Pennick | G | Jr | 6'0" | 34-20 | 24.6 | 7.2 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 46.3% | 31.2% | 4.1 | 74.6% | 21.1% | |
| 30 | Mike Woods | F | Sr | 6'4" | 34-31 | 22.4 | 6.6 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 49.5% | 28.9% | 1.3 | 78.4% | 19.3% | |
| 2 | Cam Cole | G | Jr | 6'2" | 34-0 | 19.1 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 55.7% | 38.5% | 2.8 | 75.9% | 19.8% | |
| 7 | David Burnett | G | So | 6'4" | 18-0 | 6.5 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 54.3% | 25.0% | 0.2 | 45.5% | 17.3% | |
| 8 | Sam Krist | G | Sr | 6'5" | 15-1 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 64.3% | 40.0% | 0.7 | — | 20.9% | |
| 42 | Cooper Jackson | F | So | 6'7" | 17-0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 62.5% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 60.0% | 18.2% | |
| 0 | Nyles Howard | G | Jr | 6'4" | 11-0 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 0.2 | 75.0% | 25.6% | |
| 14 | Cam Cormany | G | Sr | 6'0" | 14-1 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 63.6% | 44.4% | 0.6 | 100.0% | 23.3% | |
| 25 | Jerry Ashley Jr. | F | Fr | 6'8" | 9-0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 66.7% | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 20.1% | |
| 3 | Julian Gabbidon | G | Jr | 6'3" | 7-0 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 60.0% | — | 0.0 | 100.0% | 33.2% | |
| 20 | Matt Gaffney | G | Fr | 5'11" | 4-0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0% | — | 0.0 | 100.0% | 23.2% | |
| 77 | Owen Gray | F | So | 6'9" | 4-0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | 100.0% | 7.4% | |
| 33 | Tobi Raji | F | So | 6'7" | 1-0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 0.0% | |
| 40 | C.J. Kearns | F | Fr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 22 | Colin Pollock | F | Fr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 18 | Davyn de Jongh | G | So | 6'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 32 | Jordan McConnell | C | Fr | 6'10" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 16 | Julien King | G | So | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 35 | Luke Morgan | F | Fr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 9 | Reiss Whitaker | F | Jr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 24 | Steven McLeod | G | Fr | 6'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Navy
Against the spread
Season
20-11-1
Home
9-6
Road
10-4-1
Last 10
7-2-1
avg cover +5.2
Covered 7 of 9 as a favorite
Over / under
Season
14-17-1
Home
9-6
Road
5-9-1
Last 10
7-2-1
avg vs total +5.4
Over 4 straightOver in 6 of 9 as a favorite, 1 push
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18 | Wake Forest | A | L 72–82 | +10.0 | P0.0 | 147.5 | O154 | 109.0 | 124.1 | 66.1 |
| Mar 8 | Boston U | H | L 72–73 | −7.0 | L−8.0 | 136.5 | O145 | 117.4 | 119.1 | 61.3 |
| Mar 5 | Bucknell | H | W 74–69 | −14.5 | L−9.5 | 132.5 | O143 | 118.1 | 110.1 | 62.7 |
| Feb 28 | Colgate | H | W 85–69 | −6.5 | W+9.5 | 142.0 | O154 | 127.8 | 103.7 | 66.5 |
| Feb 25 | Loyola MD | A | W 78–51 | −6.5 | W+20.5 | 146.5 | U129 | 128.1 | 83.8 | 60.9 |
| Feb 21 | Army | A | W 81–63 | −7.5 | W+10.5 | 137.5 | O144 | 126.5 | 98.4 | 64.0 |
| Feb 18 | Lehigh | H | W 72–49 | −10.0 | W+13.0 | 139.5 | U121 | 111.7 | 76.0 | 64.5 |
| Feb 14 | Colgate | A | W 84–80 OT | −2.0 | W+2.0 | 139.0 | O164 | 117.4 | 111.8 | 71.6 |
| Feb 9 | Bucknell | A | W 76–60 | −6.5 | W+9.5 | 136.0 | P136 | 109.9 | 86.7 | 69.2 |
| Feb 7 | American | H | W 82–73 | −4.5 | W+4.5 | 134.0 | O155 | 127.1 | 113.2 | 64.5 |
Air Force
Against the spread
Season
10-20-2
Home
4-12-2
Road
6-6
Last 10
2-7-1
avg cover −4.0
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 2 of 10 as an underdog, 1 pushCovered 2 of 9 with a line of 10+
Over / under
Season
19-12-1
Home
13-5
Road
6-5-1
Last 10
7-3
avg vs total +3.5
Under 2 straightOver in 7 of 10 as an underdogOver in 6 of 9 with a line of 10+
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11 | Nevada | N | L 45–80 | +19.0 | L−16.0 | 141.0 | U125 | 63.2 | 112.3 | 71.2 |
| Mar 7 | Nevada | A | L 59–74 | +25.5 | W+10.5 | 145.0 | U133 | 91.1 | 114.2 | 64.8 |
| Mar 3 | Grand Canyon | H | L 60–86 | +19.0 | L−7.0 | 143.0 | O146 | 87.4 | 125.3 | 68.7 |
| Feb 28 | Wyoming | A | L 62–66 | +21.5 | W+17.5 | 146.5 | U128 | 95.0 | 101.1 | 65.3 |
| Feb 24 | San José St | H | L 80–86 | +6.0 | P0.0 | 145.0 | O166 | 120.8 | 129.8 | 66.2 |
| Feb 21 | UNLV | H | L 66–91 | +16.5 | L−8.5 | 153.0 | O157 | 95.7 | 132.0 | 69.0 |
| Feb 17 | New Mexico | A | L 61–98 | +28.0 | L−9.0 | 148.5 | O159 | 86.3 | 138.6 | 70.7 |
| Feb 14 | Fresno St | A | L 63–93 | +15.0 | L−15.0 | 142.0 | O156 | 86.4 | 127.5 | 72.9 |
| Feb 10 | Colorado St | H | L 74–91 | +16.5 | L−0.5 | 137.5 | O165 | 113.4 | 139.4 | 65.3 |
| Feb 7 | San Diego St | H | L 54–88 | +21.5 | L−12.5 | 140.0 | O142 | 77.0 | 125.4 | 70.2 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeNavyAir Force
Efficiency
108.5
97.8
104.9
114.2
66.8
67.6
—
—
Shooting
53.1%
48.9%
52.7%
51.1%
35.8%
30.6%
73.6%
64.1%
38.8%
35.1%
Ball control & glass
16.8%
21.9%
18.3%
15.1%
31.9%
21.4%
27.4%
31.3%
9.2%
11.8%
7.8%
11.9%
Style
33.1%
41.8%
44.8%
46.5%
11.6%
10.5%
61.2%
55.9%
25.5%
32.1%
Roster
3.56
1.73
6'3.7"
6'6.2"
—
—
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputNavy
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Navy's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Air Force
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Air Force's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Head-to-head
this season and last| Date | Season | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sun, Dec 7 | 2025-26 | Air Force 56 – 61 Navy |
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.