CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceColonial Life Arena, Columbia, SC
UT Martin
Efficiency #182
2025-26: 22-11 · 14-8 conf
@
South Carolina
Efficiency #123
2025-26: 13-19 · 4-15 conf
Sun, Dec 6 · TBD
65.5
win 31%
Projected
71.2
win 69%
No line posted yet.
Model: SC −5.7 · total 136.7 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: South Carolina 67.6, UT Martin 66.3 → 65.6 possessions
−5.8
South Carolina offense vs UT Martin defense
−1.9
UT Martin offense vs South Carolina defense
−3.8
Projected total
136.7
Axis starts at 130 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
South Carolina offense vs UT Martin defense
−1.9
UT Martin offense vs South Carolina defense
+3.8
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.8
South Carolina by 5.7
5.7
UT Martin side ◂▸ South Carolina side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help South Carolina.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 65.6, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, South Carolina is the faster team (68.0, #202 of 365) and UT Martin the slower (65.9, #298). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
65.6
per team, 40 min
Projected total
136.7
model
Projected team totals
65.5 / 71.2
UT Martin / South Carolina
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
66.3#328
UT Martin
67.6#241
South Carolina

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageSouth Carolina
Where South Carolina struggles: shooting
South Carolina shoots an effective 50.3% (#226); UT Martin allows 46.1% (#11). Expect about 48.1%, 3.2 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -4.5 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageUT Martin
Where UT Martin scores: the offensive glass
UT Martin rebounds 37.0% of its own misses (#17); South Carolina lets opponents grab 32.1% of their own misses (#263). Expect about 35.8%, 5.4 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.3 points per 100 possessions.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (South Carolina, UT Martin, UT Martin's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect UT Martin at about 43.2% of its shots from three, South Carolina about 43.5%.
DefenseUT Martin
UT Martin's ball-hawking
UT Martin ranks #16 nationally in steal rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 11.4% of South Carolina's possessions to end in a steal against this defense.
TurnoversUT Martin
UT Martin turns it over
Projected turnover rate of 18.0% is worth roughly -1.6 points per 100 possessions against UT Martin's offense.
ClashUT Martin
Style clash: 3-point volume
UT Martin takes 47.1% of its shots from three; South Carolina runs teams off the line (35.8% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 43.2% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).
UT Martin has the ball
OffenseSouth Carolina allowsvs D1 avg
48.7% #297
51.6% #188
-1.9 pt/100
21.4% #358
14.6% #314
-1.6 pt/100
37.0% #17
32.1% #263
+3.3 pt/100
37.4% #118
34.0% #151
+0.1 pt/100
67.7% #330
—
-0.4 pt/100
UT Martin net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -0.5 pts/100
South Carolina has the ball
OffenseUT Martin allowsvs D1 avg
50.3% #226
46.1% #11
-4.5 pt/100
14.5% #42
20.0% #23
-0.9 pt/100
27.2% #289
32.0% #259
-0.9 pt/100
36.7% #137
35.8% #207
+0.2 pt/100
78.1% #14
—
+0.5 pt/100
South Carolina net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -5.7 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
UT Martinoffense vsSouth Carolinadefense
Share of shots by zone
UT Martin shoots
South Carolina allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim58.3%#18363.9%#34058.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)35.2%#28535.3%#6539.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)37.4%#20740.5%#25838.0%
Three30.3%#33731.8%#5633.7%
South Carolinaoffense vsUT Martindefense
Share of shots by zone
South Carolina shoots
UT Martin allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim59.7%#13061.1%#27258.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)38.8%#20026.5%#439.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)43.4%#3233.8%#4738.0%
Three31.1%#31730.2%#933.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
UT Martin
+1.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#128 of 365
Off reb %
37.0%
#17
Def reb %
68.0%
#259
Turnover %
21.4%
#358
Forced TO %
20.0%
#23
FT rate
37.4%
#118
FT allowed
35.8%
#207
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+2.1
Defensive rebounding−0.5
Ball security−3.2
Forcing turnovers+2.3
Foul shots drawn+0.6
Foul shots allowed−0.2
South Carolina
−0.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#203 of 365
Off reb %
27.2%
#289
Def reb %
67.9%
#263
Turnover %
14.5%
#42
Forced TO %
14.6%
#314
FT rate
36.7%
#137
FT allowed
34.0%
#151
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.0
Defensive rebounding−0.5
Ball security+1.6
Forcing turnovers−1.4
Foul shots drawn+0.4
Foul shots allowed+0.3

UT Martin has more extra scoring chances per game: +1.2 (#128 of 365) to South Carolina’s −0.6 (#203).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

UT Martin2025-26 numbers
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
44Matas DeniusasFFr6'9"33-3325.912.55.21.51.849.7%33.6%4.275.2%31.0%
32Filip PetkovskiGFr6'5"30-2826.35.33.02.61.948.6%29.9%3.255.8%16.6%
33Filip RadakovicGSo6'7"28-2626.39.44.12.62.539.7%17.3%1.981.6%26.8%
4Afan TrnkaGJr6'2"29-1123.96.52.82.41.941.5%28.7%3.767.6%22.0%
9Pedro SantosGFr6'7"31-1218.46.94.10.71.246.9%28.2%2.567.7%27.4%
5Damien KingGFr6'4"29-814.44.62.71.10.746.5%19.6%1.670.7%22.2%
24Vladimir KhryapaFFr6'8"30-313.82.32.50.91.041.0%24.1%1.045.8%16.6%
77Luca ColceagFSr6'8"28-512.93.52.10.70.746.7%29.7%2.657.1%20.0%
11AJ HopkinsFSr6'6"30-110.93.62.00.30.352.2%36.4%2.672.2%19.7%
34Lamine NiangFJr6'9"25-09.13.02.50.40.655.6%—0.050.0%21.8%
7Dragos LunguGSo6'6"6-625.713.85.32.83.565.0%27.3%1.854.5%30.8%
22Ty PriceGFr5'10"17-06.02.60.40.30.545.1%34.4%1.987.5%29.6%
10Ama SowFFr6'9"6-06.72.32.30.20.868.8%100.0%0.250.0%22.0%
6Charlie KingFJr6'5"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
2Enrique MoyaGFr5'11"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
3James BassFFr6'8"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
23Lucas WilliamsGSo6'3"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
1Will HopkinsGSo6'5"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
UT MartinSouth Carolina
Efficiency
103.8
109.7
104.3
107.3
66.3
67.6
—
—
Shooting
48.7%
50.3%
51.5%
53.2%
30.3%
31.1%
67.7%
78.1%
37.4%
36.7%
Ball control & glass
21.4%
14.5%
20.0%
14.6%
37.0%
27.2%
32.0%
32.1%
13.1%
9.3%
10.9%
11.1%
Style
47.1%
44.4%
41.9%
39.4%
15.9%
8.7%
56.2%
52.9%
34.7%
35.7%
Roster
1.84
2.25
6'6.2"
6'5.7"
85.9%
52.6%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
UT Martin
Returning minutes: 85.9%Returning production: 79.3%
Lost
  • Andrija Bukumirovic 28.4 mpg, 13.3 ppg · transferred to Boston College
Added
  • James Bass no D1 minutes last season
  • Lucas Williams no D1 minutes last season
  • Will Hopkins no D1 minutes last season
  • Charlie King no D1 minutes last season
  • Enrique Moya no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 86% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

South Carolina
Returning minutes: 52.6%Returning production: 42.7%
Lost
  • Meechie Johnson 31.5 mpg, 17.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Kobe Knox 29.9 mpg, 10.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Mike Sharavjamts 29.7 mpg, 10.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Christ Essandoko 4.9 mpg, 1.3 ppg · transferred to Bowling Green
Added
  • Abu Yarmah no D1 minutes last season
  • Cam Scott no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 53% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5.

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.