CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceNeutral siteBridgestone Arena, Nashville, TNBad Boy Mowers Series

NC State

Efficiency #34

2025-26: 20-14 · 11-9 conf

Tennessee

Efficiency #13

2025-26: 25-12 · 12-8 conf

Sun, Dec 6 · TBD

73.8

win 39%

Projected

77.0

win 61%

No line posted yet.

Model: TENN −3.2 · total 150.8 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Tennessee 67.1, NC State 69.4 → 68.2 possessions

−0.4

Tennessee offense vs NC State defense

+3.0

NC State offense vs Tennessee defense

−0.1

Projected total

150.8

Axis starts at 146 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Tennessee offense vs NC State defense

+3.0

NC State offense vs Tennessee defense

+0.1

Tennessee by 3.2

3.2

NC State side ◂▸ Tennessee side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 150.7 against a projected 150.8, and the margin steps add to +3.1 against +3.2. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Tennessee.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 68.2, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, NC State is the faster team (69.5, #112 of 365) and Tennessee the slower (67.4, #226). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

68.2

per team, 40 min

Projected total

150.8

model

Projected team totals

73.8 / 77.0

NC State / Tennessee

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

69.4#88

NC State

67.1#284

Tennessee

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageTennessee

Where Tennessee scores: the offensive glass

Tennessee rebounds 44.7% of its own misses (#1); NC State lets opponents grab 30.5% of their own misses (#181). Expect about 40.4%, 10.0 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +6.1 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantageNC State

Where NC State scores: ball control

NC State turns it over on 13.1% of possessions (#8); Tennessee forces turnovers on 16.2% of opponent possessions (#214). Expect about 14.3%, 2.5 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.1 points per 100 possessions.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (NC State, Tennessee's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect NC State at about 46.1% of its shots from three, Tennessee about 37.0%.

ClashNC State

Style match: 3-point volume

NC State takes 43.4% of its shots from three; Tennessee lets opponents take 44.8% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 46.1% — both habits push the same way.

GlassNC State

NC State gets out-rebounded

Projected offensive rebound rate of 27.6% is worth roughly -1.7 points per 100 possessions against NC State's offense.

DefenseNC State

NC State's ball-hawking

NC State ranks #39 nationally in steal rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 11.1% of Tennessee's possessions to end in a steal against this defense.

NC State has the ball

OffenseTennessee allowsvs D1 avg

55.0% #35

47.8% #37

+0.5 pt/100

13.1% #8

16.2% #214

+3.1 pt/100

28.2% #258

27.8% #61

-1.7 pt/100

35.1% #175

36.3% #221

+0.1 pt/100

76.8% #36

—

+0.4 pt/100

NC State net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +2.4 pts/100

Tennessee has the ball

OffenseNC State allowsvs D1 avg

51.4% #174

52.7% #256

+1.2 pt/100

17.3% #227

18.2% #90

-1.5 pt/100

44.7% #1

30.5% #181

+6.1 pt/100

37.4% #115

36.9% #235

+0.3 pt/100

69.1% #296

—

-0.3 pt/100

Tennessee net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +5.8 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

NC Stateoffense vsTennesseedefense

Share of shots by zone

NC State shoots

39.1

5.5

13.0

42.4

Tennessee allows

32.0

7.2

15.9

44.8

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	59.4%#148	55.1%#60	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	28.4%#354	34.1%#45	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	35.6%#273	41.4%#287	38.0%
Three	38.8%#6	30.5%#21	33.7%

Tennesseeoffense vsNC Statedefense

Share of shots by zone

Tennessee shoots

42.9

7.1

18.4

31.6

NC State allows

38.3

5.2

11.9

44.7

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	59.5%#140	58.4%#160	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	41.4%#134	37.2%#117	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	35.7%#268	37.2%#137	38.0%
Three	33.4%#201	35.5%#281	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

NC State

+2.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#80 of 365

Off reb %

28.2%

#258

Def reb %

69.5%

#181

Turnover %

13.1%

Forced TO %

18.2%

#90

FT rate

35.1%

#175

FT allowed

36.9%

#235

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.7

Defensive rebounding0.0

Ball security+2.5

Forcing turnovers+1.0

Foul shots drawn0.0

Foul shots allowed−0.4

Tennessee

+5.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#21 of 365

Off reb %

44.7%

Def reb %

72.2%

#61

Turnover %

17.3%

#227

Forced TO %

16.2%

#214

FT rate

37.4%

#115

FT allowed

36.3%

#221

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+4.6

Defensive rebounding+0.9

Ball security−0.4

Forcing turnovers−0.4

Foul shots drawn+0.6

Foul shots allowed−0.3

Tennessee has more extra scoring chances per game: +5.1 (#21 of 365) to NC State’s +2.4 (#80).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

NC State2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	Darrion Williams	F	Sr	6'6"	33-33	30.1	14.0	4.6	2.8	1.5	51.1%	40.4%	5.8	77.3%	28.0%
2	Paul McNeil Jr.	G	So	6'5"	34-32	28.7	13.8	3.6	0.8	0.4	59.7%	42.7%	7.2	82.4%	22.7%
22	Ven-Allen Lubin	F	Sr	6'9"	34-34	28.1	13.6	7.1	0.9	0.8	67.4%	27.3%	0.3	74.3%	21.8%
21	Terrance Arceneaux	G	Jr	6'6"	30-0	15.8	3.8	2.6	0.5	0.4	48.5%	32.6%	1.5	77.3%	14.8%
13	Musa Sagnia	F	Fr	6'10"	34-1	12.4	2.3	2.8	0.2	0.5	60.5%	25.0%	0.1	45.5%	11.3%
7	Alyn Breed	G	Sr	6'3"	21-7	14.8	4.5	1.9	1.3	0.4	47.3%	34.5%	1.4	89.3%	17.7%
15	Jerry Deng	F	Jr	6'9"	8-0	12.6	6.1	2.1	0.4	0.4	46.7%	32.4%	4.3	85.7%	28.9%
12	Scottie Ebube	C	Sr	6'10"	17-1	4.1	1.1	1.0	0.0	0.4	88.9%	—	0.0	23.1%	17.5%
0	Jordan Snell	G	Sr	6'3"	8-1	2.4	0.8	0.3	0.3	0.0	37.5%	28.6%	0.9	—	23.8%
45	Colt Langdon	F	Fr	6'7"	6-0	2.8	0.3	0.2	0.0	0.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.7	100.0%	25.8%
10	Jayme Kontuniemi	G	Fr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
33	Zymicah Wilkins	F	Fr	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tennessee2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
3	Bishop Boswell	G	So	6'4"	34-33	26.5	6.2	4.4	3.1	1.6	52.2%	38.5%	2.3	66.7%	16.4%
13	J.P. Estrella	F	So	6'11"	33-13	18.3	10.0	5.4	0.8	0.9	60.4%	40.0%	0.3	63.4%	29.5%
6	DeWayne Brown II	F	Fr	6'8"	35-10	14.6	4.8	3.6	0.9	0.9	58.6%	—	0.0	66.0%	19.4%
1	Amari Evans	G	Fr	6'5"	35-2	14.4	4.1	3.2	0.8	0.6	46.1%	22.0%	1.4	57.5%	20.0%
35	Ethan Burg	G	So	6'3"	30-1	11.1	2.6	0.9	1.2	0.7	56.6%	40.5%	1.2	81.8%	15.6%
77	Amaree Abram	G	Sr	6'3"	25-3	10.6	3.2	1.4	0.7	0.3	50.0%	36.8%	1.5	77.8%	18.0%
24	Troy Henderson	G	Fr	6'1"	26-0	7.4	1.9	0.5	1.1	0.3	46.2%	33.3%	1.7	0.0%	18.0%
12	Cade Phillips	F	Jr	6'9"	10-9	16.8	3.8	4.0	0.4	0.7	65.4%	—	0.0	30.8%	13.3%
4	Clarence Massamba	G	Fr	6'5"	11-0	3.7	0.4	0.3	0.4	0.2	21.4%	14.3%	0.6	50.0%	13.4%
21	Campbell Duncan	G	So	6'6"	1-0	2.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%
11	Gavin Paull	G	So	5'11"	1-0	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	1.0	—	56.6%
7	Grant Hurst	G	Sr	6'2"	1-0	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	2.0	0.0%	70.0%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

NC State2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	Darrion Williams	F	Sr	6'6"	33-33	30.1	14.0	4.6	2.8	1.5	51.1%	40.4%	5.8	77.3%	28.0%
2	Paul McNeil Jr.	G	So	6'5"	34-32	28.7	13.8	3.6	0.8	0.4	59.7%	42.7%	7.2	82.4%	22.7%
22	Ven-Allen Lubin	F	Sr	6'9"	34-34	28.1	13.6	7.1	0.9	0.8	67.4%	27.3%	0.3	74.3%	21.8%
21	Terrance Arceneaux	G	Jr	6'6"	30-0	15.8	3.8	2.6	0.5	0.4	48.5%	32.6%	1.5	77.3%	14.8%
13	Musa Sagnia	F	Fr	6'10"	34-1	12.4	2.3	2.8	0.2	0.5	60.5%	25.0%	0.1	45.5%	11.3%
7	Alyn Breed	G	Sr	6'3"	21-7	14.8	4.5	1.9	1.3	0.4	47.3%	34.5%	1.4	89.3%	17.7%
15	Jerry Deng	F	Jr	6'9"	8-0	12.6	6.1	2.1	0.4	0.4	46.7%	32.4%	4.3	85.7%	28.9%
12	Scottie Ebube	C	Sr	6'10"	17-1	4.1	1.1	1.0	0.0	0.4	88.9%	—	0.0	23.1%	17.5%
0	Jordan Snell	G	Sr	6'3"	8-1	2.4	0.8	0.3	0.3	0.0	37.5%	28.6%	0.9	—	23.8%
45	Colt Langdon	F	Fr	6'7"	6-0	2.8	0.3	0.2	0.0	0.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.7	100.0%	25.8%
10	Jayme Kontuniemi	G	Fr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
33	Zymicah Wilkins	F	Fr	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

NC State

Against the spread

Season

15-17-2

Home

8-9

Road

4-5-1

Last 10

2-7-1

avg cover −9.2

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 2 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 0 of 4 as an underdog, 1 push

Over / under

Season

21-13

Home

9-8

Road

8-2

Last 10

6-4

avg vs total +8.7

Under in the last gameOver in 3 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 3 of 4 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 17	#11TexasAdjEM #38	N	L 66–68	−1.0	L−3.0	157.5	U134	97.5	100.5	67.7
Mar 12	#10VirginiaAdjEM #15	N	L 74–81	+7.0	P0.0	152.0	O155	108.0	118.2	68.5
Mar 11	PittAdjEM #120	N	W 98–88	−9.0	W+1.0	144.5	O186	148.8	133.6	65.8
Mar 7	StanfordAdjEM #77	H	L 84–85	−9.0	L−10.0	152.5	O169	122.3	123.7	68.7
Mar 2	#1DukeAdjEM #2	H	L 64–93	+9.0	L−20.0	150.5	O157	99.3	144.3	64.5
Feb 28	Notre DameAdjEM #106	A	L 90–96 OT	−6.5	L−12.5	155.0	O186	126.1	134.5	71.4
Feb 24	#11VirginiaAdjEM #15	A	L 61–90	+6.0	L−23.0	152.0	U151	86.7	128.0	70.3
Feb 17	#16North CarolinaAdjEM #29	H	W 82–58	−7.5	W+16.5	155.5	U140	127.6	90.2	64.3
Feb 14	MiamiAdjEM #30	H	L 76–77	−5.5	L−6.5	158.0	U153	117.3	118.8	64.8
Feb 9	#24LouisvilleAdjEM #14	A	L 77–118	+7.0	L−34.0	161.5	O195	95.7	146.7	80.4

Tennessee

Against the spread

Season

17-18-2

Home

7-9-1

Road

4-5-1

Last 10

5-5

avg cover −1.1

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 8 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

18-19

Home

10-7

Road

3-7

Last 10

3-7

avg vs total −1.3

Over in the last gameOver in 2 of 8 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 29	#1MichiganAdjEM #1	N	L 62–95	+8.0	L−25.0	146.0	O157	82.3	126.1	75.3
Mar 27	#2Iowa StateAdjEM #7	N	W 76–62	+3.0	W+17.0	139.5	U138	111.8	91.2	68.0
Mar 22	#3VirginiaAdjEM #15	N	W 79–72	−1.0	W+6.0	136.5	O151	120.5	109.8	65.5
Mar 20	#11Miami OHAdjEM #66	N	W 78–56	−12.0	W+10.0	149.0	U134	118.7	85.2	65.7
Mar 13	#22VanderbiltAdjEM #12	N	L 68–75	−2.0	L−9.0	147.0	U143	109.1	120.3	62.4
Mar 12	AuburnAdjEM #41	N	W 72–62	−5.5	W+4.5	145.0	U134	112.8	97.1	63.9
Mar 7	#24VanderbiltAdjEM #12	H	L 82–86	−3.0	L−7.0	145.5	O168	112.2	117.7	73.1
Mar 3	South CarolinaAdjEM #123	A	W 78–59	−11.0	W+8.0	142.0	U137	126.6	95.8	61.6
Feb 28	#17AlabamaAdjEM #18	H	L 69–71	−5.0	L−7.0	162.5	U140	109.5	112.7	63.0
Feb 24	MissouriAdjEM #67	A	L 69–73	−4.0	L−8.0	144.0	U142	105.3	111.4	65.6

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

NC StateTennessee

Efficiency

117.3

115.9

105.5

99.5

69.4

67.1

—

Shooting

55.0%

51.4%

52.6%

52.0%

38.8%

33.4%

76.8%

69.1%

35.1%

37.4%

Ball control & glass

13.1%

17.3%

18.2%

16.2%

28.2%

44.7%

30.5%

27.8%

7.4%

10.4%

9.4%

Style

43.4%

32.1%

39.8%

48.5%

12.9%

13.7%

54.6%

60.4%

31.0%

31.7%

Roster

3.11

1.84

6'6.7"

6'5.8"

63.1%

47.2%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

NC State

Returning minutes: 63.1%Returning production: 61.6%

Lost

Quadir Copeland 28.9 mpg, 13.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Tre Holloman 24.0 mpg, 8.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Matt Able 21.7 mpg, 8.8 ppg · transferred to North Carolina

Added

Zymicah Wilkins no D1 minutes last season
Jayme Kontuniemi no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 63% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5.

Tennessee

Returning minutes: 47.2%Returning production: 42.6%

Lost

Ja'Kobi Gillespie 34.8 mpg, 18.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Nate Ament 28.1 mpg, 15.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Felix Okpara 25.5 mpg, 7.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Jaylen Carey 18.4 mpg, 7.4 ppg · transferred to Missouri

Added

Nobody of note.

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 47% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (1 transferred).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.