CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceDean E. Smith Center, Chapel Hill, NC
Butler
Efficiency #87
2025-26: 16-16 · 7-14 conf
@
North Carolina
Efficiency #29
2025-26: 24-9 · 12-7 conf
Sun, Dec 6 · TBD
72.1
win 20%
Projected
81.8
win 80%
No line posted yet.
Model: UNC −9.7 · total 153.9 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: North Carolina 68.7, Butler 69.3 → 69.7 possessions
+3.0
North Carolina offense vs Butler defense
+4.2
Butler offense vs North Carolina defense
−1.5
Projected total
153.9
Axis starts at 145 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
North Carolina offense vs Butler defense
+4.2
Butler offense vs North Carolina defense
+1.5
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.0
North Carolina by 9.7
9.7
Butler side ◂▸ North Carolina side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help North Carolina.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 69.7, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Butler is the faster team (70.0, #95 of 365) and North Carolina the slower (68.8, #162). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
69.7
per team, 40 min
Projected total
153.9
model
Projected team totals
72.1 / 81.8
Butler / North Carolina
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
69.3#97
Butler
68.7#144
North Carolina
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageNorth Carolina
Where North Carolina scores: ball control
North Carolina turns it over on 13.9% of possessions (#19); Butler forces turnovers on 15.1% of opponent possessions (#275). Expect about 14.1%, 2.7 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.3 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageButler
Where Butler scores: ball control
Butler turns it over on 15.9% of possessions (#132); North Carolina forces turnovers on 13.6% of opponent possessions (#344). Expect about 14.3%, 2.5 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.1 points per 100 possessions.
ClashButler
Strength vs strength: offensive rebounding
Butler (#58 in offensive rebounding) against North Carolina (#59 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 32.0%. Historically Butler's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.70 vs 0.49).
ClashButler
Strength vs strength: free-throw rate
Butler (#29 in free-throw rate) against North Carolina (#3 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 31.7%. Historically North Carolina's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.50 vs 0.61).
ClashButler
Style clash: ball movement
Butler assists on 57.2% of its made baskets; North Carolina breaks up passing offenses (assists on 47.8% allowed) (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 52.6% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.65 vs 0.65).
Butler has the ball
OffenseNorth Carolina allowsvs D1 avg
50.9% #199
48.3% #44
-2.4 pt/100
15.9% #132
13.6% #344
+3.1 pt/100
34.6% #58
27.8% #59
+1.0 pt/100
42.1% #29
23.8% #3
-0.4 pt/100
71.9% #210
—
-0.0 pt/100
Butler net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.2 pts/100
North Carolina has the ball
OffenseButler allowsvs D1 avg
54.3% #57
51.9% #208
+3.0 pt/100
13.9% #19
15.1% #275
+3.3 pt/100
31.2% #159
30.0% #163
+0.2 pt/100
37.1% #127
24.9% #6
-0.6 pt/100
68.2% #322
—
-0.4 pt/100
North Carolina net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +5.5 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersButleroffense vsNorth Carolinadefense
Share of shots by zone
Butler shoots
45.1
6.1
14.4
34.3
North Carolina allows
33.9
7.1
22.1
36.9
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 57.3%#216 | 55.8%#79 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 36.2%#265 | 41.1%#211 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 36.9%#225 | 33.5%#38 | 38.0% |
| Three | 32.7%#242 | 34.7%#234 | 33.7% |
North Carolinaoffense vsButlerdefense
Share of shots by zone
North Carolina shoots
37.1
7.1
14.0
41.8
Butler allows
38.3
7.0
16.9
37.8
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 65.0%#22 | 62.3%#305 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 42.3%#114 | 47.7%#337 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 42.1%#51 | 33.6%#39 | 38.0% |
| Three | 34.2%#159 | 33.3%#141 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersButler
+5.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#16 of 365
Off reb %
34.6%
#58
Def reb %
70.0%
#163
Turnover %
15.9%
#132
Forced TO %
15.1%
#275
FT rate
42.1%
#29
FT allowed
24.9%
#6
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.3
Defensive rebounding+0.2
Ball security+0.6
Forcing turnovers−1.1
Foul shots drawn+1.8
Foul shots allowed+2.7
North Carolina
+4.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#31 of 365
Off reb %
31.2%
#159
Def reb %
72.2%
#59
Turnover %
13.9%
#19
Forced TO %
13.6%
#344
FT rate
37.1%
#127
FT allowed
23.8%
#3
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.3
Defensive rebounding+0.9
Ball security+2.0
Forcing turnovers−2.1
Foul shots drawn+0.5
Foul shots allowed+2.9
Butler has more extra scoring chances per game: +5.5 (#16 of 365) to North Carolina’s +4.5 (#31).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Butler2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Finley Bizjack | G | Jr | 6'4" | 31-31 | 34.0 | 17.1 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 51.4% | 34.9% | 6.3 | 85.0% | 27.9% | |
| 7 | Jamie Kaiser Jr. | G | So | 6'6" | 30-29 | 29.0 | 9.5 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 52.4% | 34.5% | 3.9 | 75.8% | 18.3% | |
| 21 | Yohan Traore | F | Sr | 6'11" | 32-0 | 19.6 | 8.3 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 55.5% | 20.0% | 0.5 | 70.9% | 21.8% | |
| 13 | Drayton Jones | C | Jr | 6'11" | 32-32 | 19.5 | 6.3 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 58.6% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 72.0% | 16.9% | |
| 1 | Evan Haywood | G | So | 6'4" | 29-3 | 19.4 | 7.2 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 49.7% | 35.9% | 5.3 | 75.0% | 22.1% | |
| 8 | Yame Butler | G | Sr | 6'5" | 31-2 | 13.6 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 50.5% | 28.9% | 1.2 | 74.3% | 18.9% | |
| 4 | Efeosa Oliogu-Elabor | F | Fr | 6'6" | 25-10 | 16.4 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 41.9% | 10.5% | 0.8 | 62.1% | 24.0% | |
| 23 | Azavier Robinson | G | Fr | 6'2" | 22-15 | 18.3 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 53.5% | 43.3% | 1.4 | 71.1% | 22.6% | |
| 0 | Jackson Keith | F | Fr | 6'5" | 26-0 | 8.6 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 50.0% | 29.4% | 0.7 | 57.1% | 13.6% | |
| 2 | Jalen Jackson | G | Sr | 6'2" | 6-6 | 22.5 | 9.5 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 53.5% | 40.0% | 0.8 | 57.9% | 27.6% | |
| 6 | Jack McCaffery | F | Fr | 6'9" | 9-0 | 9.6 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 47.5% | 21.4% | 1.6 | 75.0% | 17.3% | |
| 3 | Ethan McComb | G | Jr | 6'1" | 6-0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 100.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 7.7% | |
| 35 | Bryson Cardinal | F | Fr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 39 | Kevin Ndzie | C | Jr | 7'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
North Carolina2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terrence Brownat Utah | G | Sr | 6'3" | 32-32 | 31.5 | 19.9 | 2.4 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 48.6% | 32.7% | 3.1 | 77.5% | 38.7% | |
| 17 | Neo Avdalasat Virginia Tech | G | So | 6'9" | 31-31 | 31.7 | 12.1 | 3.1 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 46.0% | 31.4% | 5.0 | 67.3% | 26.9% | |
| 14 | Angelo Brizziat Buffalo | G | Sr | 6'3" | 32-32 | 29.8 | 14.5 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 56.3% | 37.3% | 4.2 | 83.4% | 27.4% | |
| 15 | Jarin Stevenson | F | Sr | 6'10" | 33-25 | 25.8 | 8.1 | 4.4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 54.1% | 29.5% | 2.7 | 74.2% | 17.5% | |
| 54 | Cameron Fensat South Dakota | C | Sr | 7'0" | 32-32 | 25.3 | 14.4 | 8.7 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 57.9% | — | 0.0 | 58.5% | 31.1% | |
| 3 | Matt Ableat NC State | G | So | 6'5" | 34-0 | 21.7 | 8.8 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 51.4% | 35.5% | 4.1 | 79.6% | 24.0% | |
| 4 | Jaydon Young | G | Sr | 6'4" | 31-4 | 7.3 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 40.8% | 28.3% | 1.5 | 75.0% | 18.4% | |
| 2 | Isaiah Denis | G | So | 6'4" | 10-0 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 64.3% | 50.0% | 0.8 | 50.0% | 26.4% | |
| 32 | Evan Smith | G | Sr | 6'1" | 5-0 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 66.7% | — | 0.0 | 75.0% | 34.4% | |
| 99 | John Holbrook | F | Jr | 6'8" | 5-0 | 1.6 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 13.7% | |
| 35 | Cade Bennermanat Northwestern | C | So | 7'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 22 | Alex Samodurov | F | Jr | 6'11" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 5 | Kevin Thomas | G | Fr | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 30 | Malloy Smith | G | Fr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 25 | Maximo Adams | F | Fr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 21 | Sayon Keita | C | Fr | 7'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Transfers in: Matt Able (from NC State), Neo Avdalas (from Virginia Tech), Cade Bennerman (from Northwestern), Angelo Brizzi (from Buffalo), Terrence Brown (from Utah), Cameron Fens (from South Dakota)
Butler2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Finley Bizjack | G | Jr | 6'4" | 31-31 | 34.0 | 17.1 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 51.4% | 34.9% | 6.3 | 85.0% | 27.9% | |
| 7 | Jamie Kaiser Jr. | G | So | 6'6" | 30-29 | 29.0 | 9.5 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 52.4% | 34.5% | 3.9 | 75.8% | 18.3% | |
| 21 | Yohan Traore | F | Sr | 6'11" | 32-0 | 19.6 | 8.3 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 55.5% | 20.0% | 0.5 | 70.9% | 21.8% | |
| 13 | Drayton Jones | C | Jr | 6'11" | 32-32 | 19.5 | 6.3 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 58.6% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 72.0% | 16.9% | |
| 1 | Evan Haywood | G | So | 6'4" | 29-3 | 19.4 | 7.2 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 49.7% | 35.9% | 5.3 | 75.0% | 22.1% | |
| 8 | Yame Butler | G | Sr | 6'5" | 31-2 | 13.6 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 50.5% | 28.9% | 1.2 | 74.3% | 18.9% | |
| 4 | Efeosa Oliogu-Elabor | F | Fr | 6'6" | 25-10 | 16.4 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 41.9% | 10.5% | 0.8 | 62.1% | 24.0% | |
| 23 | Azavier Robinson | G | Fr | 6'2" | 22-15 | 18.3 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 53.5% | 43.3% | 1.4 | 71.1% | 22.6% | |
| 0 | Jackson Keith | F | Fr | 6'5" | 26-0 | 8.6 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 50.0% | 29.4% | 0.7 | 57.1% | 13.6% | |
| 2 | Jalen Jackson | G | Sr | 6'2" | 6-6 | 22.5 | 9.5 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 53.5% | 40.0% | 0.8 | 57.9% | 27.6% | |
| 6 | Jack McCaffery | F | Fr | 6'9" | 9-0 | 9.6 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 47.5% | 21.4% | 1.6 | 75.0% | 17.3% | |
| 3 | Ethan McComb | G | Jr | 6'1" | 6-0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 100.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 7.7% | |
| 35 | Bryson Cardinal | F | Fr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 39 | Kevin Ndzie | C | Jr | 7'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Butler
Against the spread
Season
16-15-1
Home
8-8-1
Road
6-5
Last 10
5-5
avg cover −2.1
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 8 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
19-12-1
Home
9-7-1
Road
8-3
Last 10
6-4
avg vs total +0.9
Over 2 straightOver in 6 of 8 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11 | Providence | N | L 81–91 | +2.0 | L−8.0 | 162.5 | O172 | 111.6 | 125.4 | 72.6 |
| Mar 7 | DePaul | A | W 81–71 | +4.0 | W+14.0 | 142.5 | O152 | 110.4 | 96.8 | 73.4 |
| Mar 4 | Creighton | H | L 59–76 | −2.5 | L−19.5 | 155.5 | U135 | 83.4 | 107.4 | 70.8 |
| Feb 25 | Villanova | A | L 73–82 | +10.5 | W+1.5 | 147.0 | O155 | 103.9 | 116.7 | 70.2 |
| Feb 21 | Xavier | H | W 80–75 | −4.5 | W+0.5 | 159.5 | U155 | 117.7 | 110.4 | 67.9 |
| Feb 18 | Georgetown | A | W 93–89 | +6.0 | W+10.0 | 147.0 | O182 | 136.4 | 130.5 | 68.2 |
| Feb 15 | Seton Hall | H | L 56–63 | +4.0 | L−3.0 | 138.5 | U119 | 83.6 | 94.1 | 67.0 |
| Feb 11 | #6UConn | H | L 70–80 | +11.5 | W+1.5 | 143.5 | O150 | 115.8 | 132.4 | 60.4 |
| Feb 7 | Marquette | A | L 55–70 | +3.5 | L−11.5 | 155.5 | U125 | 82.2 | 104.6 | 66.9 |
| Feb 4 | Providence | A | L 87–97 2OT | +3.0 | L−7.0 | 168.5 | O184 | 110.4 | 123.0 | 78.8 |
North Carolina
Against the spread
Season
19-13-1
Home
12-5-1
Road
5-5
Last 10
6-3-1
avg cover −0.5
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 2 of 5 as a favorite, 1 pushCovered 4 of 5 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
14-19
Home
6-12
Road
5-5
Last 10
3-7
avg vs total −3.1
Over 2 straightOver in 2 of 5 as a favoriteOver in 1 of 5 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19 | #11VCU | N | L 78–82 OT | −2.5 | L−6.5 | 151.0 | O160 | 101.9 | 107.1 | 76.5 |
| Mar 12 | Clemson | N | L 79–80 | +1.5 | W+0.5 | 140.5 | O159 | 114.5 | 115.9 | 69.0 |
| Mar 7 | #1Duke | A | L 61–76 | +18.0 | W+3.0 | 147.0 | U137 | 93.8 | 116.9 | 65.0 |
| Mar 3 | Clemson | H | W 67–63 | −2.5 | W+1.5 | 142.0 | U130 | 102.3 | 96.2 | 65.5 |
| Feb 28 | Virginia Tech | H | W 89–82 | −7.0 | P0.0 | 150.0 | O171 | 128.5 | 118.4 | 69.2 |
| Feb 23 | #24Louisville | H | W 77–74 | +3.5 | W+6.5 | 163.0 | U151 | 115.6 | 111.1 | 66.6 |
| Feb 21 | Syracuse | A | W 77–64 | +1.5 | W+14.5 | 154.5 | U141 | 113.3 | 94.2 | 67.9 |
| Feb 17 | NC State | A | L 58–82 | +7.5 | L−16.5 | 155.5 | U140 | 90.2 | 127.6 | 64.3 |
| Feb 14 | Pitt | H | W 79–65 | −11.5 | W+2.5 | 145.0 | U144 | 120.7 | 99.3 | 65.4 |
| Feb 10 | Miami | A | L 66–75 | −1.0 | L−10.0 | 156.5 | U141 | 95.2 | 108.2 | 69.3 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeButlerNorth Carolina
Efficiency
112.2
115.5
107.4
102.6
69.3
68.7
—
—
Shooting
50.9%
54.3%
51.9%
56.5%
32.7%
34.2%
71.9%
68.2%
42.1%
37.1%
Ball control & glass
15.9%
13.9%
15.1%
13.6%
34.6%
31.2%
30.0%
27.8%
9.5%
8.3%
11.9%
9.1%
Style
34.9%
42.2%
46.6%
42.6%
15.0%
14.4%
57.2%
57.2%
32.1%
28.4%
Roster
2.54
3.37
6'6.1"
6'6.7"
83.4%
17.0%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputButler
Returning minutes: 83.4%Returning production: 78.3%
Lost
- Michael Ajayi 33.6 mpg, 16.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Bryson Cardinal no D1 minutes last season
- Kevin Ndzie no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 83% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
North Carolina
Returning minutes: 17.0%Returning production: 13.2%
Lost
- Henri Veesaar 29.5 mpg, 16.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Luka Bogavac 24.4 mpg, 9.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Seth Trimble 23.6 mpg, 10.2 ppg · transferred to Louisville
- Caleb Wilson 22.9 mpg, 14.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Derek Dixon 22.3 mpg, 6.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Kyan Evans 17.6 mpg, 4.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Terrence Brown from Utah · 31.5 mpg, 19.9 ppg last season
- Neo Avdalas from Virginia Tech · 30.8 mpg, 11.7 ppg last season
- Angelo Brizzi from Buffalo · 29.8 mpg, 14.5 ppg last season
- Cameron Fens from South Dakota · 25.3 mpg, 14.4 ppg last season
- Matt Able from NC State · 21.7 mpg, 8.8 ppg last season
- Kevin Thomas no D1 minutes last season
Returns 17% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.