CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceNeutral siteT-Mobile Center, Kansas City, MO
Missouri
Efficiency #67
2025-26: 20-13 · 10-9 conf
vs
Kansas
Efficiency #25
2025-26: 24-11 · 13-7 conf
Sun, Dec 6 · TBD
70.8
win 35%
Projected
75.2
win 65%
No line posted yet.
Model: KU −4.4 · total 146.1 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Kansas 68.5, Missouri 67.7 → 67.8 possessions
−1.0
Kansas offense vs Missouri defense
+1.6
Missouri offense vs Kansas defense
−2.8
Projected total
146.1
Axis starts at 144 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Kansas offense vs Missouri defense
+1.6
Missouri offense vs Kansas defense
+2.8
Kansas by 4.4
4.4
Missouri side ◂▸ Kansas side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 146.0 against a projected 146.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Kansas.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 67.8, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Kansas is the faster team (68.3, #181 of 365) and Missouri the slower (68.3, #182). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
67.8
per team, 40 min
Projected total
146.1
model
Projected team totals
70.8 / 75.2
Missouri / Kansas
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
67.7#235
Missouri
68.5#170
Kansas

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
DefenseKansas
Kansas's shot-blocking
Kansas ranks #6 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 13.8% of Missouri's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Kansas's defense, Missouri's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Missouri at about 38.6% of its shots from three, Kansas about 38.3%.
AdvantageMissouri
Where Missouri scores: the offensive glass
Missouri rebounds 34.9% of its own misses (#48); Kansas lets opponents grab 29.9% of their own misses (#152). Expect about 33.3%, 2.9 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +1.8 points per 100 possessions.
TurnoversMissouri
Missouri protects the ball
Projected turnover rate of 15.5% is worth roughly +1.6 points per 100 possessions for Missouri's offense.
ClashMissouri
Strength vs strength: eFG%
Missouri (#36 in eFG%) against Kansas (#2 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 50.2%. Historically Missouri's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.58 vs 0.51).
ClashMissouri
Strength vs strength: 2-point shooting
Missouri (#38 in 2-point shooting) against Kansas (#4 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 50.6%. Historically Missouri's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.61 vs 0.55).
Missouri has the ball
OffenseKansas allowsvs D1 avg
55.0% #36
45.0% #2
-1.5 pt/100
17.8% #261
13.8% #339
+1.6 pt/100
34.9% #48
29.9% #152
+1.8 pt/100
42.1% #28
27.4% #26
-0.1 pt/100
69.1% #298
—
-0.3 pt/100
Missouri net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.4 pts/100
Kansas has the ball
OffenseMissouri allowsvs D1 avg
51.2% #186
51.5% #183
+0.1 pt/100
15.6% #109
16.5% #186
+1.1 pt/100
29.2% #227
31.7% #238
-0.1 pt/100
32.2% #255
35.5% #193
-0.1 pt/100
76.7% #37
—
+0.4 pt/100
Kansas net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.3 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Missourioffense vsKansasdefense
Share of shots by zone
Missouri shoots
Kansas allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim65.0%#2151.3%#1058.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)36.8%#24737.6%#12739.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)34.5%#30131.9%#1638.0%
Three35.0%#11230.6%#2433.7%
Kansasoffense vsMissouridefense
Share of shots by zone
Kansas shoots
Missouri allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim63.0%#5155.4%#7258.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)35.3%#28339.5%#17239.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)36.2%#25936.2%#11638.0%
Three34.6%#13936.8%#34133.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Missouri
+2.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#97 of 365
Off reb %
34.9%
#48
Def reb %
68.3%
#238
Turnover %
17.8%
#261
Forced TO %
16.5%
#186
FT rate
42.1%
#28
FT allowed
35.5%
#193
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.5
Defensive rebounding−0.3
Ball security−0.7
Forcing turnovers−0.2
Foul shots drawn+1.8
Foul shots allowed−0.1
Kansas
0.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#180 of 365
Off reb %
29.2%
#227
Def reb %
70.1%
#152
Turnover %
15.6%
#109
Forced TO %
13.8%
#339
FT rate
32.2%
#255
FT allowed
27.4%
#26
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.4
Defensive rebounding+0.2
Ball security+0.8
Forcing turnovers−2.0
Foul shots drawn−0.7
Foul shots allowed+2.0

Missouri has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.0 (#97 of 365) to Kansas’s 0.0 (#180).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Missouri2025-26 numbers
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
8Jordan Crawfordat South DakotaGSr6'2"32-3231.214.42.91.41.351.7%36.8%6.574.5%26.1%
0Cord Stansberryat W CarolinaGSr6'4"30-2930.014.14.02.11.443.6%29.6%6.380.3%30.2%
4Kennard Davis Jr.at BYUGSr6'6"32-3229.58.52.71.30.750.6%32.1%5.275.0%16.8%
15Bryson Tillerat KansasFSo6'11"35-3125.97.96.11.01.848.0%26.9%1.569.4%21.3%
1Jamier Jonesat ProvidenceGSo6'6"31-1925.711.94.51.41.759.5%38.7%1.066.4%24.7%
23Jaylen Careyat TennesseeFSr6'8"37-818.47.46.01.30.948.7%0.0%0.149.1%27.3%
11Trent PierceGSr6'10"20-1228.410.43.81.10.859.7%38.4%5.075.0%19.3%
45Luke NorthweatherFSr6'11"20-212.33.02.40.60.361.1%41.9%1.657.1%12.6%
7Trent BurnsCJr7'5"21-08.72.11.90.10.545.6%7.7%0.650.0%19.0%
6Annor BoatengGJr6'6"15-411.52.71.80.31.137.5%25.0%1.350.0%23.2%
24Nicholas RandallFSo6'9"22-05.50.71.00.10.427.8%0.0%0.250.0%15.5%
2Aaron RoweGSo6'2"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
10Aidan ChronisterGFr6'7"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
5Jason Crowe Jr.GFr6'4"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
14Toni BryantFFr6'10"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Transfers in: Jaylen Carey (from Tennessee), Jordan Crawford (from South Dakota), Kennard Davis Jr. (from BYU), Jamier Jones (from Providence), Cord Stansberry (from W Carolina), Bryson Tiller (from Kansas)

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
MissouriKansas
Efficiency
114.0
112.9
106.5
98.9
67.7
68.5
—
—
Shooting
55.0%
51.2%
56.4%
50.9%
35.0%
34.6%
69.1%
76.7%
42.1%
32.2%
Ball control & glass
17.8%
15.6%
16.5%
13.8%
34.9%
29.2%
31.7%
29.9%
9.6%
9.5%
9.7%
8.1%
Style
36.4%
35.2%
48.3%
44.7%
14.1%
13.8%
51.2%
52.3%
32.1%
25.2%
Roster
3.39
2.04
6'6.9"
6'4.9"
19.4%
28.8%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Missouri
Returning minutes: 19.4%Returning production: 13.8%
Lost
  • Mark Mitchell Jr. 33.8 mpg, 18.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Anthony Robinson II 27.0 mpg, 8.9 ppg · transferred to Florida St
  • Jayden Stone 23.6 mpg, 10.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • T.O. Barrett 22.8 mpg, 8.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Jacob Crews 20.7 mpg, 8.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Shawn Phillips Jr. 19.3 mpg, 7.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • Jordan Crawford from South Dakota · 31.2 mpg, 14.4 ppg last season
  • Cord Stansberry from W Carolina · 29.1 mpg, 13.7 ppg last season
  • Kennard Davis Jr. from BYU · 27.0 mpg, 7.7 ppg last season
  • Bryson Tiller from Kansas · 25.9 mpg, 7.9 ppg last season
  • Jamier Jones from Providence · 24.2 mpg, 11.2 ppg last season
  • Jaylen Carey from Tennessee · 18.4 mpg, 7.4 ppg last season

Returns 19% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Kansas
Returning minutes: 28.8%Returning production: 18.1%
Lost
  • Melvin Council Jr. 34.8 mpg, 12.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Flory Bidunga 31.6 mpg, 13.3 ppg · transferred to Louisville
  • Tre White 31.3 mpg, 13.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Bryson Tiller 25.9 mpg, 7.9 ppg · transferred to Missouri
  • Darryn Peterson 19.9 mpg, 13.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • Corbin Allen no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 29% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (2 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last
DateSeasonResult
Sun, Dec 72025-26Missouri 60 – 80 Kansas(N)

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.