CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Conference gameSchottenstein Center, Columbus, OH
Maryland
Efficiency #198
2025-26: 12-21 · 5-17 conf
@
Ohio State
Efficiency #31
2025-26: 21-13 · 13-9 conf
Sun, Dec 6 · TBD
67.8
win 13%
Projected
80.8
win 87%
No line posted yet.
Model: OSU −13.0 · total 148.6 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Ohio State 67.5, Maryland 67.7 → 66.8 possessions
−3.3
Ohio State offense vs Maryland defense
+6.4
Maryland offense vs Ohio State defense
−2.8
Projected total
148.6
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Ohio State offense vs Maryland defense
+6.4
Maryland offense vs Ohio State defense
+2.8
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.8
Ohio State by 13.0
13.0
Maryland side ◂▸ Ohio State side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 148.5 against a projected 148.6. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Ohio State.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 66.8, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Maryland is the faster team (66.7, #257 of 365) and Ohio State the slower (66.4, #278). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
66.8
per team, 40 min
Projected total
148.6
model
Projected team totals
67.8 / 80.8
Maryland / Ohio State
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
67.7#239
Maryland
67.5#253
Ohio State

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageOhio State
Where Ohio State scores: shooting
Ohio State shoots an effective 56.2% (#19); Maryland allows 54.4% (#312). Expect about 55.8%, 4.5 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +6.4 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageMaryland
Where Maryland struggles: shooting
Maryland shoots an effective 48.1% (#311); Ohio State allows 50.2% (#114). Expect about 48.9%, 2.4 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.4 points per 100 possessions.
Pace
Half-court grind
Ohio State averages 66.4 possessions per 40, Maryland 66.7. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 66 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
TurnoversOhio State
Ohio State protects the ball
Projected turnover rate of 14.8% is worth roughly +2.4 points per 100 possessions for Ohio State's offense.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Maryland's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Maryland at about 45.9% of its shots from three, Ohio State about 42.3%.
Maryland has the ball
OffenseOhio State allowsvs D1 avg
48.1% #311
50.2% #114
-3.4 pt/100
18.6% #304
15.6% #242
-0.4 pt/100
33.8% #73
30.0% #160
+1.3 pt/100
36.4% #142
34.7% #170
+0.1 pt/100
72.2% #202
—
-0.0 pt/100
Maryland net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -2.4 pts/100
Ohio State has the ball
OffenseMaryland allowsvs D1 avg
56.2% #19
54.4% #312
+6.4 pt/100
15.3% #91
14.9% #296
+2.4 pt/100
30.4% #185
29.1% #111
-0.4 pt/100
37.2% #122
35.8% #205
+0.2 pt/100
77.7% #21
—
+0.5 pt/100
Ohio State net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +9.1 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Marylandoffense vsOhio Statedefense
Share of shots by zone
Maryland shoots
Ohio State allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim55.8%#27959.8%#22058.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)32.1%#32838.4%#14339.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)39.6%#12942.7%#32838.0%
Three31.7%#29331.9%#5733.7%
Ohio Stateoffense vsMarylanddefense
Share of shots by zone
Ohio State shoots
Maryland allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim66.1%#1459.6%#21158.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)50.3%#1231.9%#2239.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)47.6%#441.3%#28338.0%
Three35.7%#7236.3%#31733.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Maryland
−0.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#204 of 365
Off reb %
33.8%
#73
Def reb %
70.9%
#111
Turnover %
18.6%
#304
Forced TO %
14.9%
#296
FT rate
36.4%
#142
FT allowed
35.8%
#205
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.1
Defensive rebounding+0.5
Ball security−1.2
Forcing turnovers−1.2
Foul shots drawn+0.3
Foul shots allowed−0.1
Ohio State
+1.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#132 of 365
Off reb %
30.4%
#185
Def reb %
70.0%
#160
Turnover %
15.3%
#91
Forced TO %
15.6%
#242
FT rate
37.2%
#122
FT allowed
34.7%
#170
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding0.0
Defensive rebounding+0.2
Ball security+1.0
Forcing turnovers−0.7
Foul shots drawn+0.6
Foul shots allowed+0.1

Ohio State has more extra scoring chances per game: +1.2 (#132 of 365) to Maryland’s −0.6 (#204).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Maryland2025-26 numbers
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
13Elijah SaundersFSr6'8"33-3230.79.04.40.91.156.4%41.1%4.380.0%17.2%
7Andre MillsGFr6'4"33-2526.712.24.11.61.749.2%34.6%4.876.7%29.7%
8David CoitGSr5'11"33-1626.713.51.82.81.851.0%32.4%6.685.6%31.4%
1Darius AdamsGFr6'5"33-2825.610.83.41.62.040.6%24.8%4.071.4%31.5%
12Isaiah WattsGJr6'3"32-817.04.31.80.70.844.5%29.3%3.164.3%18.8%
45Collin MetcalfCSr6'9"31-1313.51.33.20.30.554.5%0.0%0.038.5%8.2%
2Myles RiceGJr6'3"17-416.55.62.11.31.443.3%34.4%1.992.6%24.4%
21Pharrel PayneFSr6'9"10-1026.817.57.21.42.762.4%—0.071.9%32.8%
11George Turkson Jr.GFr6'7"23-511.41.32.00.20.333.3%0.0%0.350.0%10.3%
18Guillermo Del PinoGFr6'5"23-29.31.60.70.50.637.0%27.6%1.350.0%17.5%
24Aleks AlstonFFr6'10"25-08.41.41.70.30.440.3%20.8%1.055.6%13.8%
15Jaziah HarperGFr6'7"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
30Lukas SotellGJr6'3"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
25Nick BlakeGFr6'2"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
4Rakease PassmoreGSo6'5"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
MarylandOhio State
Efficiency
107.9
117.4
109.1
104.9
67.7
67.5
—
—
Shooting
48.1%
56.2%
48.6%
58.0%
31.7%
35.7%
72.2%
77.7%
36.4%
37.2%
Ball control & glass
18.6%
15.3%
14.9%
15.6%
33.8%
30.4%
29.1%
30.0%
9.5%
8.1%
11.6%
8.9%
Style
46.9%
40.1%
34.4%
43.4%
8.7%
8.5%
45.2%
52.6%
31.4%
23.7%
Roster
2.61
2.19
6'4.9"
6'5.5"
87.9%
66.1%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Maryland
Returning minutes: 87.9%Returning production: 86.1%
Lost
  • Solomon Washington 24.3 mpg, 7.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • Nick Blake no D1 minutes last season
  • Rakease Passmore no D1 minutes last season
  • Lukas Sotell no D1 minutes last season
  • Jaziah Harper no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 88% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Ohio State
Returning minutes: 66.1%Returning production: 58.1%
Lost
  • Bruce Thornton 36.6 mpg, 19.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Christoph Tilly 24.5 mpg, 10.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Colin White 7.5 mpg, 0.7 ppg · transferred to Akron
Added
  • Myles Herro no D1 minutes last season
  • Josh Ojianwuna no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 66% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last
DateSeasonResult
Thu, Feb 52025-26Ohio State 82 – 62 Maryland

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.