CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceNeutral siteBridgestone Arena, Nashville, TNBad Boy Mowers Series
Murray St
Efficiency #108
2025-26: 20-13 · 12-9 conf
vs
Georgia Tech
Efficiency #201
2025-26: 11-20 · 2-16 conf
Sun, Dec 6 · TBD
82.5
win 61%
Projected
79.2
win 39%
No line posted yet.
Model: MUR −3.3 · total 161.7 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Georgia Tech 70.6, Murray St 71.2 → 73.5 possessions
+11.3
Georgia Tech offense vs Murray St defense
−0.6
Murray St offense vs Georgia Tech defense
+2.7
Projected total
161.7
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Georgia Tech offense vs Murray St defense
−0.6
Murray St offense vs Georgia Tech defense
−2.7
Murray St by 3.3
3.3
Murray St side ◂▸ Georgia Tech side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 161.6 against a projected 161.7. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Georgia Tech.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 73.5, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Murray St is the faster team (72.3, #20 of 365) and Georgia Tech the slower (71.6, #30). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
73.5
per team, 40 min
Projected total
161.7
model
Projected team totals
82.5 / 79.2
Murray St / Georgia Tech
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
71.2#12
Murray St
70.6#23
Georgia Tech

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
Pace
Track meet
Georgia Tech averages 71.6 possessions per 40, Murray St 72.3. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 74 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
ClashGeorgia Tech
Style match: 3-point volume
Georgia Tech rarely shoots threes (33.2% of its shots); Murray St runs teams off the line (27.4% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 26.6% — both habits push the same way.
ClashMurray St
Style match: 3-point volume
Murray St takes 44.8% of its shots from three; Georgia Tech lets opponents take 44.4% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 46.9% — both habits push the same way.
ClashGeorgia Tech
Style clash: ball movement
Georgia Tech assists on 59.9% of its made baskets; Murray St breaks up passing offenses (assists on 44.1% allowed) (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 51.9% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.65 vs 0.65).
Murray St has the ball
OffenseGeorgia Tech allowsvs D1 avg
53.8% #70
49.9% #94
+1.1 pt/100
16.3% #158
15.6% #245
+1.3 pt/100
32.6% #100
30.7% #189
+1.0 pt/100
38.6% #86
34.2% #156
+0.2 pt/100
75.5% #67
—
+0.3 pt/100
Murray St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +3.8 pts/100
Georgia Tech has the ball
OffenseMurray St allowsvs D1 avg
50.0% #234
52.4% #236
-0.2 pt/100
18.6% #306
15.8% #232
-0.5 pt/100
29.9% #203
31.3% #214
+0.1 pt/100
33.3% #229
32.2% #109
-0.3 pt/100
71.1% #235
—
-0.1 pt/100
Georgia Tech net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -1.1 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Murray Stoffense vsGeorgia Techdefense
Share of shots by zone
Murray St shoots
Georgia Tech allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim61.1%#9356.8%#10858.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)42.9%#10538.1%#14039.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)40.6%#9137.1%#13338.0%
Three35.0%#12033.1%#13433.7%
Georgia Techoffense vsMurray Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Georgia Tech shoots
Murray St allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim57.1%#23757.1%#11758.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)33.3%#31240.2%#19539.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)35.6%#27041.2%#28138.0%
Three35.1%#10936.2%#31033.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Murray St
+1.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#103 of 365
Off reb %
32.6%
#100
Def reb %
68.7%
#214
Turnover %
16.3%
#158
Forced TO %
15.8%
#232
FT rate
38.6%
#86
FT allowed
32.2%
#109
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.7
Defensive rebounding−0.2
Ball security+0.3
Forcing turnovers−0.6
Foul shots drawn+0.9
Foul shots allowed+0.8
Georgia Tech
−2.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#280 of 365
Off reb %
29.9%
#203
Def reb %
69.3%
#189
Turnover %
18.6%
#306
Forced TO %
15.6%
#245
FT rate
33.3%
#229
FT allowed
34.2%
#156
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.1
Defensive rebounding0.0
Ball security−1.3
Forcing turnovers−0.8
Foul shots drawn−0.4
Foul shots allowed+0.3

Murray St has more extra scoring chances per game: +1.9 (#103 of 365) to Georgia Tech’s −2.4 (#280).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Murray St2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Murray St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
22Javon JacksonGSr6'3"33-3325.616.52.32.92.449.2%36.9%4.585.5%37.8%
77Roman DomonGFr6'9"33-925.314.25.21.61.755.4%36.8%3.576.8%28.8%
33Fred KingCSr6'9"32-3124.713.18.40.81.966.0%54.5%0.361.4%26.9%
9Layne TaylorGSo5'11"31-2624.78.02.73.21.052.7%34.5%4.678.9%18.4%
13Mason MillerFSr6'9"32-2422.85.93.80.50.555.6%39.2%3.878.4%13.4%
8JJ TraynorFSr6'9"32-3222.67.43.50.71.253.8%29.3%2.369.2%19.2%
10KJ TennerGSo6'0"33-716.56.01.52.10.852.7%42.6%1.474.1%20.6%
2Mathis CourbonGFr6'6"32-015.84.62.01.20.853.9%40.8%1.579.2%16.6%
34Brayden ShorterGJr6'5"33-114.65.71.80.50.546.6%28.4%4.790.0%23.5%
11Dylan AndersonCJr7'0"31-26.81.51.70.40.542.4%20.0%0.860.0%17.2%
6Brock ViceFSo6'10"29-05.62.01.90.20.366.7%36.4%0.468.8%18.3%
7Ben ShtolzbergGSr6'4"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
25Dillon ButlerGFr6'3"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
14Lachlan CrateGFr6'8"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
4Tristian FordGFr6'3"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
Murray StGeorgia Tech
Efficiency
113.2
106.1
110.0
107.4
71.2
70.6
—
—
Shooting
53.8%
50.0%
55.0%
48.7%
35.0%
35.1%
75.5%
71.1%
38.6%
33.3%
Ball control & glass
16.3%
18.6%
15.8%
15.6%
32.6%
29.9%
31.3%
30.7%
9.5%
11.3%
8.1%
10.8%
Style
44.8%
33.2%
40.4%
45.7%
12.0%
12.2%
49.1%
59.9%
38.1%
31.5%
Roster
2.84
3.70
6'5.9"
6'3.5"
—
14.2%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Murray St
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Murray St's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Georgia Tech
Returning minutes: 14.2%Returning production: 10.3%
Lost
  • Kowacie Reeves Jr. 28.3 mpg, 14.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Lamar Washington 26.6 mpg, 8.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Jaeden Mustaf 26.0 mpg, 9.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Akai Fleming 24.7 mpg, 10.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Baye Ndongo 23.7 mpg, 10.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Chas Kelley III 16.1 mpg, 4.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • Nasir Whitlock from Lehigh · 35.0 mpg, 20.5 ppg last season
  • Colby Garland from San José St · 30.9 mpg, 17.8 ppg last season
  • Courtland Muldrew from Washington · 7.7 mpg, 2.0 ppg last season
  • Jackson Fields from West Virginia · 3.7 mpg, 1.1 ppg last season
  • Haiden Harper no D1 minutes last season
  • Vctor Valds no D1 minutes last season

Returns 14% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.