CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceLittlejohn Coliseum, Clemson, SC

Le Moyne

Efficiency #270

2025-26: 15-17 · 10-9 conf

Clemson

Efficiency #35

2025-26: 24-11 · 14-7 conf

Sun, Dec 6 · TBD

63.9

win 9%

Projected

79.3

win 91%

No line posted yet.

Model: CLEM −15.4 · total 143.1 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Clemson 66.1, Le Moyne 69.6 → 67.4 possessions

−1.9

Clemson offense vs Le Moyne defense

+4.2

Le Moyne offense vs Clemson defense

−7.3

Projected total

143.1

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Clemson offense vs Le Moyne defense

+4.2

Le Moyne offense vs Clemson defense

+7.3

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.9

Clemson by 15.4

15.4

Le Moyne side ◂▸ Clemson side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 143.2 against a projected 143.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Clemson.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 67.4, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Le Moyne is the faster team (69.2, #133 of 365) and Clemson the slower (65.1, #330). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

67.4

per team, 40 min

Projected total

143.1

model

Projected team totals

63.9 / 79.3

Le Moyne / Clemson

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

69.6#76

Le Moyne

66.1#338

Clemson

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageLe Moyne

Where Le Moyne struggles: the offensive glass

Le Moyne rebounds 25.2% of its own misses (#337); Clemson lets opponents grab 26.3% of their own misses (#21). Expect about 24.7%, 5.7 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.5 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantageClemson

Where Clemson scores: ball control

Clemson turns it over on 14.0% of possessions (#24); Le Moyne forces turnovers on 15.0% of opponent possessions (#289). Expect about 14.1%, 2.7 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.3 points per 100 possessions.

TurnoversLe Moyne

Le Moyne turns it over

Projected turnover rate of 18.5% is worth roughly -2.1 points per 100 possessions against Le Moyne's offense.

Le Moyne has the ball

OffenseClemson allowsvs D1 avg

52.7% #118

48.8% #59

-0.6 pt/100

19.1% #327

17.4% #123

-2.1 pt/100

25.2% #337

26.3% #21

-3.5 pt/100

39.5% #68

33.9% #150

+0.2 pt/100

71.8% #214

—

-0.1 pt/100

Le Moyne net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -6.1 pts/100

Clemson has the ball

OffenseLe Moyne allowsvs D1 avg

52.6% #126

49.3% #75

-0.4 pt/100

14.0% #24

15.0% #289

+3.3 pt/100

28.1% #264

29.1% #107

-1.4 pt/100

36.7% #136

32.7% #121

-0.1 pt/100

72.5% #187

—

+0.0 pt/100

Clemson net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.5 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Le Moyneoffense vsClemsondefense

Share of shots by zone

Le Moyne shoots

42.6

4.8

12.5

40.1

Clemson allows

33.0

5.5

17.9

43.6

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	59.4%#149	57.6%#133	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	36.0%#269	35.1%#60	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	37.8%#194	37.1%#135	38.0%
Three	34.3%#152	32.4%#88	33.7%

Clemsonoffense vsLe Moynedefense

Share of shots by zone

Clemson shoots

36.3

6.9

13.7

43.1

Le Moyne allows

36.2

7.4

16.5

39.9

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	58.0%#195	56.5%#100	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	52.4%#5	37.7%#131	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	40.8%#81	27.3%#1	38.0%
Three	34.1%#165	36.0%#303	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Le Moyne

−2.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#276 of 365

Off reb %

25.2%

#337

Def reb %

70.9%

#107

Turnover %

19.1%

#327

Forced TO %

15.0%

#289

FT rate

39.5%

#68

FT allowed

32.7%

#121

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.7

Defensive rebounding+0.5

Ball security−1.6

Forcing turnovers−1.2

Foul shots drawn+1.1

Foul shots allowed+0.7

Clemson

+3.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#40 of 365

Off reb %

28.1%

#264

Def reb %

73.7%

#21

Turnover %

14.0%

#24

Forced TO %

17.4%

#123

FT rate

36.7%

#136

FT allowed

33.9%

#150

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.7

Defensive rebounding+1.4

Ball security+1.9

Forcing turnovers+0.5

Foul shots drawn+0.4

Foul shots allowed+0.3

Clemson has more extra scoring chances per game: +3.8 (#40 of 365) to Le Moyne’s −2.2 (#276).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Le Moyne2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Le Moyne's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
7	Trent Mosquera	G	Jr	6'5"	32-30	31.8	13.5	5.8	2.3	2.0	51.1%	35.2%	6.8	73.6%	26.4%
13	Deng Garang	G	So	6'6"	32-32	30.1	10.8	5.2	1.0	1.5	53.2%	33.9%	4.0	71.4%	21.4%
2	Jakai Sanders	G	So	6'3"	29-21	29.9	10.7	3.4	4.3	2.4	46.0%	36.5%	2.6	74.5%	24.0%
4	Shilo Jackson	F	Sr	6'9"	27-26	30.8	15.8	8.0	2.1	2.5	63.3%	50.0%	0.1	72.7%	27.0%
1	Tennessee Rainwater	G	Jr	6'6"	32-7	24.5	9.8	4.3	1.7	1.8	63.9%	50.0%	1.3	67.2%	21.7%
10	Jakob Blakley	G	So	6'0"	32-28	16.1	4.2	1.2	0.6	0.4	45.9%	31.4%	2.7	87.5%	16.5%
12	Samuel Hincapie	G	Jr	6'5"	30-0	15.6	4.9	2.1	0.7	0.6	48.9%	26.9%	1.7	57.1%	20.6%
3	Eli Greenberg	G	Fr	6'4"	31-8	14.0	2.6	1.2	1.6	1.1	42.0%	28.9%	1.5	78.3%	15.7%
32	Isaac Nyakundi	F	So	6'9"	24-6	9.8	2.1	1.8	0.3	0.5	51.1%	25.0%	0.5	54.5%	14.9%
5	Trevor Roe	F	So	6'9"	17-0	7.3	2.9	1.4	0.2	0.2	52.3%	32.3%	1.8	100.0%	23.0%
11	Josiah Lee	G	Fr	6'2"	15-0	5.3	1.5	0.5	0.3	0.1	58.3%	33.3%	1.0	100.0%	14.5%
0	Ametri Moss	G	Sr	6'0"	2-2	27.5	7.5	5.0	4.5	1.0	40.0%	0.0%	1.5	100.0%	18.5%
33	Sam Donnelly	G	Sr	6'2"	5-0	2.4	0.6	0.2	0.0	0.2	33.3%	0.0%	0.2	50.0%	22.6%
22	Kaelin Thomas	G	Jr	6'2"	3-0	3.3	0.7	0.3	0.0	0.3	25.0%	—	0.0	—	27.7%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Clemson2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	Cole Certaat Notre Dame	G	Jr	6'5"	31-16	26.9	12.8	1.7	0.8	0.7	50.8%	36.7%	7.1	89.2%	26.6%
15	Dylan Faulknerat Samford	F	Sr	6'10"	30-30	26.2	17.2	8.6	1.8	1.4	61.7%	0.0%	0.2	56.3%	34.5%
45	Liutauras Leleviciusat TCU	F	Sr	6'7"	34-22	23.7	8.0	3.4	0.7	0.5	57.4%	38.0%	3.6	88.7%	17.1%
8	David Fuchsat San Francisco	F	Sr	6'9"	29-19	24.0	12.7	7.8	1.4	1.9	53.9%	30.3%	1.1	64.5%	32.3%
21	Ace Buckner	G	Jr	6'3"	35-3	19.5	8.3	2.9	1.8	1.0	49.1%	31.2%	2.7	81.3%	27.6%
22	Carter Welling	F	Sr	6'11"	32-24	20.9	10.2	5.4	1.1	1.3	53.2%	29.3%	1.8	70.1%	29.3%
3	Chase Thompson	F	So	6'8"	35-0	8.9	2.3	1.1	0.3	0.3	62.3%	40.0%	0.7	68.4%	14.4%
5	Zac Foster	G	So	6'4"	12-0	18.6	6.9	2.8	2.5	1.3	38.7%	27.7%	3.9	81.8%	29.1%
11	Dallas Thomas	F	Jr	6'9"	22-0	4.4	2.2	0.4	0.1	0.2	71.0%	57.1%	1.0	62.5%	24.8%
44	Trent Steinour	F	So	6'10"	6-0	2.5	1.0	1.2	0.0	0.2	25.0%	—	0.0	66.7%	30.2%
4	Blake Davidson	F	So	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
7	Amare James	G	Fr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
2	Harris Reynolds	G	Fr	6'5"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
25	Will Stevens	C	Fr	6'10"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Transfers in: Cole Certa (from Notre Dame), Dylan Faulkner (from Samford), David Fuchs (from San Francisco), Liutauras Lelevicius (from TCU)

Le Moyne2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Le Moyne's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
7	Trent Mosquera	G	Jr	6'5"	32-30	31.8	13.5	5.8	2.3	2.0	51.1%	35.2%	6.8	73.6%	26.4%
13	Deng Garang	G	So	6'6"	32-32	30.1	10.8	5.2	1.0	1.5	53.2%	33.9%	4.0	71.4%	21.4%
2	Jakai Sanders	G	So	6'3"	29-21	29.9	10.7	3.4	4.3	2.4	46.0%	36.5%	2.6	74.5%	24.0%
4	Shilo Jackson	F	Sr	6'9"	27-26	30.8	15.8	8.0	2.1	2.5	63.3%	50.0%	0.1	72.7%	27.0%
1	Tennessee Rainwater	G	Jr	6'6"	32-7	24.5	9.8	4.3	1.7	1.8	63.9%	50.0%	1.3	67.2%	21.7%
10	Jakob Blakley	G	So	6'0"	32-28	16.1	4.2	1.2	0.6	0.4	45.9%	31.4%	2.7	87.5%	16.5%
12	Samuel Hincapie	G	Jr	6'5"	30-0	15.6	4.9	2.1	0.7	0.6	48.9%	26.9%	1.7	57.1%	20.6%
3	Eli Greenberg	G	Fr	6'4"	31-8	14.0	2.6	1.2	1.6	1.1	42.0%	28.9%	1.5	78.3%	15.7%
32	Isaac Nyakundi	F	So	6'9"	24-6	9.8	2.1	1.8	0.3	0.5	51.1%	25.0%	0.5	54.5%	14.9%
5	Trevor Roe	F	So	6'9"	17-0	7.3	2.9	1.4	0.2	0.2	52.3%	32.3%	1.8	100.0%	23.0%
11	Josiah Lee	G	Fr	6'2"	15-0	5.3	1.5	0.5	0.3	0.1	58.3%	33.3%	1.0	100.0%	14.5%
0	Ametri Moss	G	Sr	6'0"	2-2	27.5	7.5	5.0	4.5	1.0	40.0%	0.0%	1.5	100.0%	18.5%
33	Sam Donnelly	G	Sr	6'2"	5-0	2.4	0.6	0.2	0.0	0.2	33.3%	0.0%	0.2	50.0%	22.6%
22	Kaelin Thomas	G	Jr	6'2"	3-0	3.3	0.7	0.3	0.0	0.3	25.0%	—	0.0	—	27.7%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Le Moyne

Against the spread

Season

16-14-1

Home

5-7

Road

10-6-1

Last 10

3-6-1

avg cover −3.2

Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 2 of 8 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

13-18

Home

5-7

Road

6-11

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total −0.1

Over in the last gameOver in 3 of 8 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 4	StonehillAdjEM #320	H	L 71–81	−4.5	L−14.5	140.0	O152	100.6	114.8	70.5
Feb 28	New HavenAdjEM #326	A	L 59–66	−2.0	L−9.0	136.0	U125	86.5	96.8	68.2
Feb 26	FDUAdjEM #332	H	W 76–59	−4.5	W+12.5	139.5	U135	118.7	92.2	64.0
Feb 21	StonehillAdjEM #320	A	L 68–77	−2.0	L−11.0	137.0	O145	96.6	109.4	70.4
Feb 19	C ConnecticutAdjEM #277	A	L 77–78	+3.5	W+2.5	146.5	O155	108.8	110.2	70.8
Feb 14	Chicago StAdjEM #342	H	W 81–63	−7.0	W+11.0	146.0	U144	117.6	91.5	68.9
Feb 12	MercyhurstAdjEM #261	H	W 58–57	−2.5	L−1.5	138.5	U115	84.2	82.7	68.9
Feb 7	Saint Francis Red Wolves	H	W 86–84	−8.5	L−6.5	154.0	O170	112.0	109.4	76.8
Feb 5	WagnerAdjEM #285	A	L 78–79	+1.0	P0.0	140.0	O157	113.9	115.3	68.5
Jan 31	StonehillAdjEM #320	H	L 54–65	−4.5	L−15.5	140.5	U119	75.7	91.1	71.4

Clemson

Against the spread

Season

16-17-2

Home

6-8-2

Road

7-4

Last 10

3-7

avg cover −3.7

Missed the spread 3 straightCovered 1 of 5 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 5 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

14-21

Home

6-10

Road

5-6

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total +1.2

Under 2 straightOver in 3 of 5 as a favoriteOver in 1 of 5 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 20	#9IowaAdjEM #22	N	L 61–67	+1.5	L−4.5	131.0	U128	113.6	124.7	53.7
Mar 13	#1DukeAdjEM #2	N	L 61–73	+10.5	L−1.5	135.0	U134	96.5	115.5	63.2
Mar 12	#19North CarolinaAdjEM #29	N	W 80–79	−1.5	L−0.5	140.5	O159	115.9	114.5	69.0
Mar 11	Wake ForestAdjEM #76	N	W 71–62	−5.5	W+3.5	142.0	U133	119.0	103.9	59.6
Mar 7	Georgia TechAdjEM #201	H	W 79–76	−17.5	L−14.5	144.5	O155	119.4	114.9	66.2
Mar 3	#17North CarolinaAdjEM #29	A	L 63–67	+2.5	L−1.5	142.0	U130	96.2	102.3	65.5
Feb 28	#24LouisvilleAdjEM #14	H	W 80–75	+2.0	W+7.0	146.5	O155	114.4	107.3	69.9
Feb 21	Florida StAdjEM #74	H	L 65–70	−8.5	L−13.5	144.5	U135	108.6	116.9	59.9
Feb 18	Wake ForestAdjEM #76	A	L 77–85	−4.0	L−12.0	140.0	O162	115.6	127.6	66.6
Feb 14	#4DukeAdjEM #2	A	L 54–67	+13.5	W+0.5	133.5	U121	87.2	108.2	61.9

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

Le MoyneClemson

Efficiency

104.7

112.9

110.2

101.3

69.6

66.1

—

Shooting

52.7%

52.6%

53.5%

53.6%

34.3%

34.1%

71.8%

72.5%

39.5%

36.7%

Ball control & glass

19.1%

14.0%

15.0%

17.4%

25.2%

28.1%

29.1%

26.3%

11.1%

8.4%

9.5%

10.1%

Style

40.8%

43.1%

42.6%

42.2%

14.2%

10.0%

56.5%

50.3%

31.9%

37.6%

Roster

2.56

3.47

6'5.2"

6'7.4"

—

28.4%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Le Moyne

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Le Moyne's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Clemson

Returning minutes: 28.4%Returning production: 32.0%

Lost

Dillon Hunter 28.6 mpg, 7.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Jestin Porter 27.1 mpg, 9.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
RJ Godfrey 25.2 mpg, 12.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Nick Davidson 21.9 mpg, 9.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Butta Johnson 21.1 mpg, 6.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Jake Wahlin 20.5 mpg, 5.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Cole Certa from Notre Dame · 26.9 mpg, 12.8 ppg last season
Dylan Faulkner from Samford · 24.5 mpg, 16.1 ppg last season
Liutauras Lelevicius from TCU · 23.0 mpg, 7.8 ppg last season
David Fuchs from San Francisco · 21.1 mpg, 11.2 ppg last season
Blake Davidson no D1 minutes last season
Will Stevens no D1 minutes last season

Returns 28% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.