CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceMaples Pavilion, Stanford, CA
Pacific
Efficiency #126
2025-26: 18-15 · 9-11 conf
@
Stanford
Efficiency #77
2025-26: 20-13 · 9-10 conf
Sun, Dec 6 · TBD
68.5
win 29%
Projected
74.9
win 71%
No line posted yet.
Model: STAN −6.4 · total 143.4 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Stanford 68.1, Pacific 66.4 → 66.2 possessions
−4.6
Stanford offense vs Pacific defense
+1.2
Pacific offense vs Stanford defense
−1.4
Projected total
143.4
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Stanford offense vs Pacific defense
+1.2
Pacific offense vs Stanford defense
+1.4
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.8
Stanford by 6.4
6.4
Pacific side ◂▸ Stanford side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Stanford.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 66.2, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Stanford is the faster team (67.9, #209 of 365) and Pacific the slower (65.8, #300). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
66.2
per team, 40 min
Projected total
143.4
model
Projected team totals
68.5 / 74.9
Pacific / Stanford
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
66.4#325
Pacific
68.1#201
Stanford

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantagePacific
Where Pacific struggles: ball control
Pacific turns it over on 20.1% of possessions (#349); Stanford forces turnovers on 18.0% of opponent possessions (#97). Expect about 19.4%, 2.6 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.2 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageStanford
Where Stanford scores: ball control
Stanford turns it over on 15.5% of possessions (#103); Pacific forces turnovers on 15.1% of opponent possessions (#273). Expect about 15.0%, 1.8 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.2 points per 100 possessions.
ClashPacific
Style match: 3-point volume
Pacific rarely shoots threes (35.3% of its shots); Stanford runs teams off the line (33.4% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 32.3% — both habits push the same way.
GlassPacific
Pacific owns the glass
Projected offensive rebound rate of 33.5% is worth roughly +1.9 points per 100 possessions for Pacific's offense.
ClashStanford
Style match: 3-point volume
Stanford takes 44.0% of its shots from three; Pacific lets opponents take 42.8% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 45.2% — both habits push the same way.
ClashPacific
Style clash: ball movement
Pacific assists on 58.0% of its made baskets; Stanford breaks up passing offenses (assists on 41.9% allowed) (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 49.3% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.65 vs 0.65).
Pacific has the ball
OffenseStanford allowsvs D1 avg
52.2% #140
51.0% #158
+0.5 pt/100
20.1% #349
18.0% #97
-3.2 pt/100
35.3% #42
29.8% #149
+1.9 pt/100
30.5% #297
40.3% #305
+0.1 pt/100
75.5% #66
—
+0.3 pt/100
Pacific net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -0.5 pts/100
Stanford has the ball
OffensePacific allowsvs D1 avg
51.5% #173
50.0% #101
-0.8 pt/100
15.5% #103
15.1% #273
+2.2 pt/100
32.5% #109
25.0% #8
-0.7 pt/100
35.5% #165
36.3% #219
+0.1 pt/100
73.2% #163
—
+0.1 pt/100
Stanford net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +0.9 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Pacificoffense vsStanforddefense
Share of shots by zone
Pacific shoots
Stanford allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim54.6%#31158.2%#15358.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)45.4%#5738.8%#15539.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)44.9%#1639.9%#24238.0%
Three35.8%#6532.9%#11833.7%
Stanfordoffense vsPacificdefense
Share of shots by zone
Stanford shoots
Pacific allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim53.8%#32157.0%#11358.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)39.0%#19339.7%#18339.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)42.1%#5337.7%#15138.0%
Three35.2%#10334.7%#23333.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Pacific
−1.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#252 of 365
Off reb %
35.3%
#42
Def reb %
75.0%
#8
Turnover %
20.1%
#349
Forced TO %
15.1%
#273
FT rate
30.5%
#297
FT allowed
36.3%
#219
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.6
Defensive rebounding+1.8
Ball security−2.2
Forcing turnovers−1.1
Foul shots drawn−1.2
Foul shots allowed−0.3
Stanford
+1.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#121 of 365
Off reb %
32.5%
#109
Def reb %
70.2%
#149
Turnover %
15.5%
#103
Forced TO %
18.0%
#97
FT rate
35.5%
#165
FT allowed
40.3%
#305
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.7
Defensive rebounding+0.3
Ball security+0.9
Forcing turnovers+0.9
Foul shots drawn+0.1
Foul shots allowed−1.3

Stanford has more extra scoring chances per game: +1.5 (#121 of 365) to Pacific’s −1.4 (#252).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Pacific2025-26 numbers
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
10TJ WainwrightGSr6'3"33-3331.913.03.81.41.552.0%38.8%5.592.0%24.9%
6Jaden ClaytonGSr6'1"33-2430.47.93.36.42.544.0%30.2%3.575.0%21.7%
1Justin RochelinGSr6'5"33-3327.29.16.41.01.852.3%38.1%2.579.8%22.0%
14Isaac JackFSr6'11"33-3321.69.15.30.50.867.4%—0.059.7%21.5%
9Kajus KublickasGJr6'2"33-920.25.62.53.01.942.1%27.8%2.471.4%23.7%
15Jaion PittFFr6'7"33-017.34.73.70.50.368.8%66.7%0.263.4%13.0%
24KC IbekweCSr6'11"32-09.33.81.60.30.859.6%—0.029.6%26.9%
0Alexis MarmolejosGSr6'2"24-09.53.81.60.30.545.1%30.2%2.284.2%26.8%
11Emmanuel ManyuonGJr6'2"13-03.20.50.40.20.258.3%33.3%0.2—11.6%
17Eyal HarelGFr6'7"3-03.32.00.30.00.0150.0%100.0%0.7—11.4%
3Carlsheon YoungGFr6'4"1-03.00.00.00.02.0——0.0—40.8%
13Kellen HamptonFFr6'7"1-01.00.00.00.00.0——0.0—0.0%
7Augustas BrazdeikisFJr6'8"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
21Clayton MpianaFFr6'9"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
4Dominic CapriottiGJr6'4"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
22Kris KeinysFJr6'8"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
12Noah BuduGSo6'1"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
PacificStanford
Efficiency
108.8
112.4
106.4
106.0
66.4
68.1
—
—
Shooting
52.2%
51.5%
51.3%
50.5%
35.8%
35.2%
75.5%
73.2%
30.5%
35.5%
Ball control & glass
20.1%
15.5%
15.1%
18.0%
35.3%
32.5%
25.0%
29.8%
9.9%
7.3%
10.6%
9.5%
Style
35.3%
44.0%
45.9%
40.3%
9.7%
12.9%
58.0%
45.8%
27.8%
33.7%
Roster
3.55
3.04
6'4.7"
6'6.2"
82.8%
83.6%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Pacific
Returning minutes: 82.8%Returning production: 78.1%
Lost
  • Elias Ralph 34.6 mpg, 16.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • Kris Keinys no D1 minutes last season
  • Noah Budu no D1 minutes last season
  • Dominic Capriotti no D1 minutes last season
  • Augustas Brazdeikis no D1 minutes last season
  • Clayton Mpiana no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 83% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Stanford
Returning minutes: 83.6%Returning production: 73.5%
Lost
  • Ebuka Okorie 33.0 mpg, 21.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • Myles Jones no D1 minutes last season
  • Anthony Batson Jr. no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 84% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.