Oregon State Beavers vs Oregon Ducks basketball preview & prediction

Thu, Nov 19 · 9:00 PM ET · Moda Center, Portland, OR (neutral site)

Neutral siteNon-conferenceModa Center, Portland, OR

Oregon St

3-0 · 0-0 conf

Efficiency #91

Oregon

2-0 · 0-0 conf

Efficiency #92

Thu, Nov 19 · 9:00 PM ET

Our projected score shows once the market opens.

No line posted yet.

Our play

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 71.1, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, Oregon St is the faster team (74.1, #84 of 365) and Oregon the slower (71.2, #164). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

71.1

per team, 40 min

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

71.5#118

Oregon St

70.1#215

Oregon

How this game plays

points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchup

From the four factors

Oregon has the ball+8.2

Oregon St has the ball+8.1

Oregon has the ball

✓Shoots it welleFG% 65.9% #7 · ORST allows 44.0% #67+5.9

✓Takes care of the ballTO% 15.5% #94 · ORST forces 13.9% #291 · ~10 turnovers+3.8

✗Few trips to the lineFTR 27.6% #281 · ORST allows 21.2% #26 · FT 67.6% #220−1.4

✗Few second chancesOR% 33.3% #135 · ORST allows 28.8% #1370.0

Oregon St has the ball

✓Shoots it welleFG% 59.5% #41 · ORE allows 49.1% #156+4.8

✓Takes care of the ballTO% 13.5% #54 · ORE forces 16.2% #234 · ~10 turnovers+3.5

✗Few second chancesOR% 34.0% #125 · ORE allows 21.6% #22−1.3

✓Gets to the lineFTR 46.7% #71 · ORE allows 31.9% #128 · FT 84.9% #15+1.1

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot

Oregon Stoffense vsOregondefense

Share of shots by zone

Oregon St shoots

35.4

10.1

6.3

48.1

Oregon allows

28.6

13.3

14.3

43.9

D-I average

37.8

8.0

12.4

41.8

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	73.2%#27	64.3%#252	58.0%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	37.5%#165	23.1%#73	38.2%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	30.0%#213	42.9%#240	34.7%
Three	38.4%#79	35.3%#235	32.5%

Oregonoffense vsOregon Stdefense

Share of shots by zone

Oregon shoots

45.1

16.7

8.8

29.4

Oregon St allows

30.1

6.4

23.7

39.9

D-I average

37.8

8.0

12.4

41.8

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	82.6%#4	48.1%#59	58.0%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	29.4%#234	36.4%#174	38.2%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	77.8%#11	46.3%#276	34.7%
Three	38.9%#72	28.7%#105	32.5%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line

Oregon St

+9.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#65 of 365

Off reb %

34.0%

#125

Def reb %

71.2%

#137

Turnover %

13.5%

#54

Forced TO %

13.9%

#291

FT rate

46.7%

#71

FT allowed

21.2%

#26

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.8

Defensive rebounding+0.9

Ball security+3.4

Forcing turnovers−2.9

Foul shots drawn+2.4

Foul shots allowed+4.4

Oregon

+3.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#124 of 365

Off reb %

33.3%

#135

Def reb %

78.4%

#22

Turnover %

15.5%

#94

Forced TO %

16.2%

#234

FT rate

27.6%

#281

FT allowed

31.9%

#128

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.6

Defensive rebounding+3.3

Ball security+2.0

Forcing turnovers−1.3

Foul shots drawn−2.5

Foul shots allowed+1.6

Oregon St has more extra scoring chances per game: +9.0 (#65 of 365) to Oregon’s +3.6 (#124).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Who has been playing, and who has not

Oregon St2026-27 numbers · last game: E Washington, Nov 9

#	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	Min/40, last 8	Last 3 vs before	Status	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
32	C	So	7'1"	3-3	27.7	32	—	Started last	9.7	10.7	2.0	1.0	61.8%	25.0%	1.3	80.0%	16.1%
13	G	So	6'5"	3-0	27.3	29	—	Bench	16.3	3.3	1.7	0.3	76.6%	47.8%	7.7	—	21.8%
2	G	Sr	6'2"	3-3	27.0	30	—	Started last	13.3	2.7	4.3	1.7	69.0%	50.0%	3.3	100.0%	20.7%
5	G	Jr	6'2"	3-3	25.0	28	—	Started last	17.7	4.3	3.3	1.0	45.0%	31.3%	5.3	100.0%	32.3%
35	F	So	6'6"	3-3	24.7	25	—	Started last	14.3	4.0	1.0	2.3	50.0%	25.0%	4.0	77.8%	32.4%
22	G	Sr	6'3"	3-0	20.3	16	—	Bench	12.3	3.7	2.0	1.0	59.6%	45.5%	3.7	60.0%	30.1%
1	G	Fr	6'2"	3-0	16.3	16	—	Bench	6.3	3.0	1.3	1.3	53.8%	33.3%	2.0	100.0%	21.4%
12	F	So	6'8"	3-0	9.3	12	—	Bench	4.0	2.0	0.3	0.3	68.8%	33.3%	1.0	50.0%	19.3%
11	C	Jr	7'0"	3-3	8.7	12	—	Started last	1.7	3.7	0.0	0.3	66.7%	—	0.0	50.0%	10.4%
6	F	So	7'2"	3-0	7.7	1	—	Bench	0.0	1.3	1.0	0.7	—	—	0.0	—	4.6%
7	F	Jr	6'9"	3-0	2.7	0	—	Bench	0.3	1.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	50.0%	6.2%
15	C	Fr	6'11"	2-0	3.0	—	—	Active	1.0	1.0	0.5	0.0	25.0%	0.0%	0.5	—	33.2%
28	G	So	6'6"	2-0	2.0	—	—	Active	1.0	0.0	0.5	0.0	100.0%	—	0.0	—	12.5%

Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.

Trends

Results against the closing spread and total, last ten games

Oregon St

Against the spread

Season

2-1

Home

2-1

Road

0-0

Last 10

2-1

avg cover +7.8

Missed the spread in the last game

Over / under

Season

3-0

Home

3-0

Road

0-0

Last 10

3-0

avg vs total +8.0

Over 3 straight

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Nov 9	E WashingtonAdjEM #212	H	W 94–84	−17.0	L−7.0	163.0	O178	123.7	110.5	76.0
Nov 6	CA BaptistAdjEM #239	H	W 96–68	−20.5	W+7.5	157.5	O164	144.5	102.4	66.4
Nov 2	Weber StAdjEM #281	H	W 102–61	−18.0	W+23.0	160.5	O163	127.6	76.3	79.9
Mar 9	#12GonzagaAdjEM #6	N	L 56–65	+20.5	W+11.5	145.0	U121	88.7	102.9	63.1
Mar 8	San FranciscoAdjEM #125	N	W 78–77	+3.5	W+4.5	145.5	O155	118.1	116.6	66.0
Feb 28	Santa ClaraAdjEM #53	A	L 72–93	+16.5	L−4.5	153.0	O165	105.2	135.8	68.5
Feb 25	San DiegoAdjEM #245	H	W 92–82 OT	−6.5	W+3.5	144.0	O174	123.8	110.3	74.3
Feb 21	PepperdineAdjEM #270	H	W 83–73	−9.0	W+1.0	148.5	O156	115.3	101.4	72.0
Feb 15	Seattle UAdjEM #112	A	L 50–60	+7.0	L−3.0	136.0	U110	78.0	93.6	64.1
Feb 12	San FranciscoAdjEM #125	A	W 90–63	+9.0	W+36.0	141.0	O153	148.3	103.8	60.7

Oregon

Against the spread

Season

1-1

Home

1-1

Road

0-0

Last 10

1-1

avg cover +4.8

Covered the last game

Over / under

Season

2-0

Home

2-0

Road

0-0

Last 10

2-0

avg vs total +11.8

Over 2 straight

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Nov 6	E WashingtonAdjEM #212	H	W 98–71	−16.0	W+11.0	150.0	O169	132.4	95.9	74.0
Nov 2	MontanaAdjEM #211	H	W 87–69	−19.5	L−1.5	151.5	O156	127.3	101.0	68.3
Mar 10	MarylandAdjEM #154	N	L 60–70	−4.0	L−14.0	139.0	U130	95.6	111.5	62.8
Mar 7	WashingtonAdjEM #98	H	W 85–79	+1.5	W+7.5	146.0	O164	129.7	120.5	65.5
Mar 3	#11IllinoisAdjEM #2	A	L 54–80	+17.5	L−8.5	147.0	U134	78.9	116.9	68.5
Feb 28	NorthwesternAdjEM #65	A	L 62–63	+3.5	W+2.5	142.5	U125	97.3	98.9	63.7
Feb 25	WisconsinAdjEM #64	H	W 85–71	+5.5	W+19.5	153.0	O156	122.8	102.5	69.2
Feb 21	USCAdjEM #74	A	W 71–70	+5.0	W+6.0	149.5	U141	101.3	99.8	70.1
Feb 17	MinnesotaAdjEM #55	H	L 44–61	−3.5	L−20.5	134.5	U105	73.5	101.9	59.9
Feb 14	Penn StateAdjEM #141	H	W 83–72	−6.5	W+4.5	147.0	O155	126.5	109.7	65.6

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Team comparison

national rank toned left for away, right for home

Oregon StOregon

Efficiency

111.9

110.6

105.0

103.8

71.5

70.1

-5.0

-3.3

Shooting

59.5%

65.9%

61.2%

69.0%

38.4%

38.9%

84.9%

67.6%

46.7%

27.6%

Ball control & glass

13.5%

15.5%

13.9%

16.2%

34.0%

33.3%

28.8%

21.6%

9.9%

11.2%

5.1%

6.9%

Style

46.7%

29.3%

37.7%

58.4%

14.4%

16.2%

57.0%

63.5%

43.5%

41.6%

Roster

2.56

3.07

6'5.9"

6'6.2"

16.8%

19.7%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Oregon St

Returning minutes: 16.8%Returning production: 21.5%

Lost

Isaiah Sy 28.0 mpg, 10.0 ppg · transferred to San Diego St
Dez White 26.9 mpg, 8.8 ppg · transferred to Temple
Johan Munch 19.8 mpg, 7.4 ppg · transferred to SMU
Olavi Suutela 17.5 mpg, 5.5 ppg · transferred to UC San Diego
Jorge Diaz Graham 17.4 mpg, 5.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Keziah Ekissi 14.2 mpg, 3.8 ppg · transferred to CSU Northridge

Added

Jackson Rasmussen from Idaho · 30.1 mpg, 13.3 ppg last season
DeShawn Gory from Fresno St · 29.3 mpg, 13.7 ppg last season
Daniel Freitag from Buffalo · 23.9 mpg, 14.3 ppg last season
Legend Smiley from San Francisco · 21.3 mpg, 8.1 ppg last season
Chris Johnson from UCF · 15.3 mpg, 6.0 ppg last season
Dennis Evans from Grand Canyon · 6.6 mpg, 2.1 ppg last season

Returns 17% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (4 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Oregon

Returning minutes: 20.7%Returning production: 17.1%

Lost

Takai Simpkins 31.0 mpg, 12.1 ppg · transferred to Lipscomb
Kwame Evans Jr. 29.0 mpg, 12.5 ppg · transferred to Villanova
Nate Bittle 24.3 mpg, 13.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Dez Lindsay 20.5 mpg, 5.3 ppg · transferred to Kansas St
Jackson Shelstad 13.1 mpg, 5.8 ppg · transferred to Louisville
Drew Carter 11.6 mpg, 2.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Fred Payne from Boston College · 34.7 mpg, 15.8 ppg last season
Andrew Meadow from Boise St · 30.0 mpg, 12.1 ppg last season
Tyrone Riley IV from San Francisco · 29.9 mpg, 11.5 ppg last season
Taylor Bol Bowen from Alabama · 16.4 mpg, 5.4 ppg last season
Jerry Easter II from USC · 15.7 mpg, 4.0 ppg last season
Pharaoh Compton from San Diego St · 13.8 mpg, 7.5 ppg last season

Returns 21% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (3 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Mon, Nov 17	2025-26	Oregon St 75 – 87 Oregon

More games on Thu, Nov 19

NC State vs Murray St · 6:00 PM ET
Northeastern at Butler · 7:00 PM ET
Buffalo at St Bonaventure · 7:00 PM ET
UMBC at Ohio State · 7:00 PM ET
Montana St at High Point · 7:00 PM ET
Little Rock at Jacksonville · 7:00 PM ET
Maine at Quinnipiac · 7:00 PM ET
Southern Miss at Grambling · 7:00 PM ET
Robert Morris at Toledo · 7:00 PM ET
Tulane at Louisiana Tech · 7:30 PM ET
Charleston at Drake · 7:30 PM ET
Southern Utah at Texas · 8:00 PM ET
Stetson at Louisville · 8:00 PM ET
Texas A&M at TCU · 8:00 PM ET
SE Missouri at St Thomas · 8:00 PM ET
GA Southern at Hou Christian · 8:00 PM ET
Seton Hall vs Wisconsin · 8:30 PM ET
UTEP at New Mexico St · 9:00 PM ET
Utah Tech at Washington · 9:00 PM ET
East Texas A&M at California · 10:00 PM ET
Sacramento St at Stanford · 10:00 PM ET
VCU at Santa Clara · 10:30 PM ET
Tarleton St at USC · 11:00 PM ET
Santa Barbara at Pepperdine · TBD

← Wed, Nov 18 · Fri, Nov 20 → · Full season schedule

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.