CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceQubein Center, High Point, NC
Montana St
Efficiency #130
2025-26: 18-14 · 12-7 conf
@
High Point
Efficiency #50
2025-26: 31-5 · 18-1 conf
Thu, Nov 19 · 7:00 PM ET
72.0
win 22%
Projected
81.1
win 78%
No line posted yet.
Model: HPU −9.1 · total 153.0 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: High Point 70.1, Montana St 67.4 → 69.1 possessions
+1.7
High Point offense vs Montana St defense
+4.1
Montana St offense vs High Point defense
−1.0
Projected total
153.0
Axis starts at 145 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
High Point offense vs Montana St defense
+4.1
Montana St offense vs High Point defense
+1.0
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.0
High Point by 9.1
9.1
Montana St side ◂▸ High Point side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help High Point.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 69.1, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, High Point is the faster team (71.2, #45 of 365) and Montana St the slower (67.4, #229). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
69.1
per team, 40 min
Projected total
153.0
model
Projected team totals
72.0 / 81.1
Montana St / High Point
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
67.4#264
Montana St
70.1#43
High Point

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageHigh Point
Where High Point scores: ball control
High Point turns it over on 12.8% of possessions (#5); Montana St forces turnovers on 15.7% of opponent possessions (#238). Expect about 13.8%, 2.9 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.6 points per 100 possessions.
ClashMontana St
Strength vs strength: live-ball turnovers
Montana St (#34 in live-ball turnovers) against High Point (#2 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 11.8%. Historically High Point's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.40 vs 0.65).
AdvantageMontana St
Where Montana St struggles: ball control
Montana St turns it over on 14.7% of possessions (#53); High Point forces turnovers on 21.3% of opponent possessions (#8). Expect about 18.5%, 1.7 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.1 points per 100 possessions.
ClashHigh Point
Strength vs strength: free-throw rate
High Point (#50 in free-throw rate) against Montana St (#52 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 34.6%. Historically Montana St's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.50 vs 0.61).
ClashHigh Point
Style clash: 3-point volume
High Point takes 43.6% of its shots from three; Montana St runs teams off the line (34.3% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 39.5% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).
Montana St has the ball
OffenseHigh Point allowsvs D1 avg
53.6% #80
50.5% #126
+1.4 pt/100
14.7% #53
21.3% #8
-2.1 pt/100
27.0% #292
31.1% #207
-1.2 pt/100
30.2% #303
35.5% #199
-0.3 pt/100
74.0% #132
—
+0.1 pt/100
Montana St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -2.1 pts/100
High Point has the ball
OffenseMontana St allowsvs D1 avg
54.5% #51
51.7% #193
+2.9 pt/100
12.8% #5
15.7% #238
+3.6 pt/100
31.8% #131
28.2% #75
-0.0 pt/100
40.8% #50
29.6% #52
-0.1 pt/100
74.3% #112
—
+0.2 pt/100
High Point net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +6.6 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Montana Stoffense vsHigh Pointdefense
Share of shots by zone
Montana St shoots
High Point allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim59.7%#13457.7%#13858.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)41.4%#13740.5%#19839.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)45.3%#1235.3%#8338.0%
Three36.1%#5232.6%#9733.7%
High Pointoffense vsMontana Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
High Point shoots
Montana St allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim63.0%#5054.6%#5458.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)33.8%#30849.4%#35239.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)33.6%#32041.2%#27938.0%
Three34.2%#16134.3%#19833.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Montana St
+0.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#154 of 365
Off reb %
27.0%
#292
Def reb %
71.8%
#75
Turnover %
14.7%
#53
Forced TO %
15.7%
#238
FT rate
30.2%
#303
FT allowed
29.6%
#52
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.1
Defensive rebounding+0.8
Ball security+1.4
Forcing turnovers−0.7
Foul shots drawn−1.2
Foul shots allowed+1.4
High Point
+7.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#4 of 365
Off reb %
31.8%
#131
Def reb %
68.9%
#207
Turnover %
12.8%
#5
Forced TO %
21.3%
#8
FT rate
40.8%
#50
FT allowed
35.5%
#199
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.5
Defensive rebounding−0.1
Ball security+2.7
Forcing turnovers+3.1
Foul shots drawn+1.5
Foul shots allowed−0.1

High Point has more extra scoring chances per game: +7.5 (#4 of 365) to Montana St’s +0.6 (#154).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Montana St2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Montana St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
24Jed MillerGSr6'2"32-3234.514.95.72.91.359.4%40.6%6.880.0%22.7%
1Patrick McMahonGSr6'7"29-2929.213.74.52.01.648.1%25.5%1.971.5%29.4%
5Jeremiah DavisGJr6'4"31-2424.79.12.71.31.160.2%40.0%2.776.7%20.1%
7Christian KingFSo6'8"28-1927.312.64.51.01.650.2%36.4%5.580.6%28.9%
21Chris HodgesFSr6'9"32-3223.35.54.10.91.257.7%—0.048.2%15.5%
0Davian BrownGSr6'3"21-1425.012.73.41.81.259.8%43.0%5.883.7%26.9%
12Seth AmunrudGJr6'3"24-221.57.32.70.70.757.7%40.0%3.3100.0%18.2%
44Jaden SteppeFSo6'8"32-015.75.62.60.91.059.6%31.0%1.359.4%21.7%
2Howie KeeneGFr6'7"24-012.72.31.80.60.344.0%27.1%2.0100.0%13.3%
4Cavin HoldenGJr6'2"8-825.98.42.61.81.048.4%31.0%5.380.0%20.8%
35Waka MbatchFSo6'10"11-012.44.73.00.60.858.1%0.0%0.176.2%21.9%
22Calum RutherfurdFSo6'11"5-03.01.01.00.20.4100.0%—0.050.0%19.1%
15Grayson GaddisFFr6'7"5-03.01.80.60.40.238.9%14.3%1.4100.0%42.2%
3CJ PurdieGFr6'4"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
14James StewardFFr6'8"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
Montana StHigh Point
Efficiency
109.7
115.4
107.5
105.8
67.4
70.1
—
—
Shooting
53.6%
54.5%
53.1%
57.0%
36.1%
34.2%
74.0%
74.3%
30.2%
40.8%
Ball control & glass
14.7%
12.8%
15.7%
21.3%
27.0%
31.8%
28.2%
31.1%
7.9%
6.8%
7.5%
10.7%
Style
44.7%
43.6%
37.6%
43.6%
12.1%
18.9%
39.9%
52.8%
29.5%
38.5%
Roster
3.18
3.47
6'5.5"
6'4.2"
—
86.6%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Montana St
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Montana St's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

High Point
Returning minutes: 86.6%Returning production: 82.8%
Lost
  • Terry Anderson 26.9 mpg, 16.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • Kasen Krueger no D1 minutes last season
  • Mavrick Miller no D1 minutes last season
  • Dorian Grosber no D1 minutes last season
  • Liam Carney no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 87% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.