CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceHinkle Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN

Northeastern

Efficiency #274

2025-26: 7-24 · 3-17 conf

Butler

Efficiency #87

2025-26: 16-16 · 7-14 conf

Thu, Nov 19 · TBD

73.5

win 16%

Projected

85.2

win 84%

No line posted yet.

Model: BTLR −11.7 · total 158.7 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Butler 69.3, Northeastern 69.8 → 70.8 possessions

+5.4

Butler offense vs Northeastern defense

+6.3

Northeastern offense vs Butler defense

−1.3

Projected total

158.7

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Butler offense vs Northeastern defense

+6.3

Northeastern offense vs Butler defense

+1.3

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.1

Butler by 11.7

11.7

Northeastern side ◂▸ Butler side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 158.6 against a projected 158.7. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Butler.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 70.8, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Butler is the faster team (70.0, #95 of 365) and Northeastern the slower (69.6, #108). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

70.8

per team, 40 min

Projected total

158.7

model

Projected team totals

73.5 / 85.2

Northeastern / Butler

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

69.8#63

Northeastern

69.3#97

Butler

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageButler

Where Butler scores: shooting

Butler shoots an effective 50.9% (#199); Northeastern allows 56.4% (#351). Expect about 53.7%, 2.4 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.4 points per 100 possessions.

ClashButler

Style match: 3-point volume

Butler rarely shoots threes (34.9% of its shots); Northeastern runs teams off the line (35.2% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 33.1% — both habits push the same way.

GlassButler

Butler owns the glass

Projected offensive rebound rate of 33.2% is worth roughly +1.7 points per 100 possessions for Butler's offense.

AdvantageNortheastern

Where Northeastern scores: ball control

Northeastern turns it over on 16.4% of possessions (#162); Butler forces turnovers on 15.1% of opponent possessions (#275). Expect about 15.5%, 1.3 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +1.6 points per 100 possessions.

ClashNortheastern

Style match: paint scoring

Northeastern scores 47.0% of its points in the paint; Butler gives up 48.6% of opponents' points in the paint (D1 average 42.8%). Expect about 45.8% — both habits push the same way.

ClashButler

Style match: paint scoring

Butler scores 46.6% of its points in the paint; Northeastern gives up 46.2% of opponents' points in the paint (D1 average 42.8%). Expect about 44.9% — both habits push the same way.

Northeastern has the ball

OffenseButler allowsvs D1 avg

52.4% #130

51.9% #208

+1.4 pt/100

16.4% #162

15.1% #275

+1.6 pt/100

27.3% #286

30.0% #163

-1.4 pt/100

29.4% #324

24.9% #6

-1.1 pt/100

69.0% #299

—

-0.3 pt/100

Northeastern net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +0.1 pts/100

Butler has the ball

OffenseNortheastern allowsvs D1 avg

50.9% #199

56.4% #351

+3.4 pt/100

15.9% #132

16.8% #170

+0.6 pt/100

34.6% #58

30.2% #169

+1.7 pt/100

42.1% #29

41.9% #320

+0.9 pt/100

71.9% #210

—

-0.0 pt/100

Butler net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +6.6 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Northeasternoffense vsButlerdefense

Share of shots by zone

Northeastern shoots

42.0

5.9

15.1

37.1

Butler allows

38.3

7.0

16.9

37.8

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	60.6%#103	62.3%#305	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	36.7%#249	47.7%#337	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	38.7%#157	33.6%#39	38.0%
Three	33.7%#187	33.3%#141	33.7%

Butleroffense vsNortheasterndefense

Share of shots by zone

Butler shoots

45.1

6.1

14.4

34.3

Northeastern allows

43.5

6.2

14.9

35.5

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	57.3%#216	63.5%#335	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	36.2%#265	45.5%#314	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	36.9%#225	47.9%#364	38.0%
Three	32.7%#242	35.8%#297	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Northeastern

−3.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#321 of 365

Off reb %

27.3%

#286

Def reb %

69.8%

#169

Turnover %

16.4%

#162

Forced TO %

16.8%

#170

FT rate

29.4%

#324

FT allowed

41.9%

#320

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.0

Defensive rebounding+0.1

Ball security+0.3

Forcing turnovers+0.1

Foul shots drawn−1.4

Foul shots allowed−1.7

Butler

+5.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#16 of 365

Off reb %

34.6%

#58

Def reb %

70.0%

#163

Turnover %

15.9%

#132

Forced TO %

15.1%

#275

FT rate

42.1%

#29

FT allowed

24.9%

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+1.3

Defensive rebounding+0.2

Ball security+0.6

Forcing turnovers−1.1

Foul shots drawn+1.8

Foul shots allowed+2.7

Butler has more extra scoring chances per game: +5.5 (#16 of 365) to Northeastern’s −3.7 (#321).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Northeastern2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
4	Mike Loughnane	G	Jr	6'4"	31-23	30.9	10.2	2.9	3.8	1.6	52.7%	35.1%	3.6	78.8%	20.0%
8	William Kermoury	G	Jr	6'5"	27-24	26.9	13.1	3.2	2.3	1.4	57.9%	40.2%	6.8	71.7%	26.7%
7	Youri Fritz	F	Sr	6'9"	25-23	25.9	9.8	5.4	1.5	1.6	59.8%	33.3%	0.1	52.1%	22.1%
1	Xavier Abreu	G	Fr	6'3"	29-9	21.0	12.6	2.7	1.0	1.1	50.3%	28.3%	3.2	75.6%	34.8%
13	Luca Soroa Schaller	G	So	6'7"	29-12	20.7	5.6	3.4	2.2	1.9	40.0%	22.6%	1.8	73.7%	22.0%
2	Ryan Williams	G	So	6'4"	28-10	14.7	7.4	1.1	1.6	0.6	62.3%	42.5%	2.6	90.9%	24.2%
21	Petar Pinter	C	Fr	6'11"	26-14	14.3	3.3	2.1	0.4	0.7	55.1%	—	0.0	55.0%	14.7%
9	Ty Francis	F	Fr	6'7"	24-5	15.0	4.5	2.6	0.4	0.6	52.9%	21.1%	0.8	57.6%	18.5%
0	Xander Alarie	F	Fr	6'8"	11-11	27.7	10.3	7.4	1.5	2.2	45.3%	26.3%	1.7	85.7%	24.1%
12	Liam Koelsch	C	Fr	6'9"	26-1	8.6	1.8	2.3	0.2	0.1	65.7%	—	0.0	8.7%	12.4%
10	Miles Newton	G	Fr	6'3"	9-7	16.8	5.4	2.0	0.9	0.8	58.3%	35.3%	1.9	70.0%	18.0%
22	Haris Elezovic	F	Sr	6'8"	17-0	8.1	2.2	1.5	0.5	0.4	45.7%	25.0%	0.5	85.7%	18.0%
3	LA Pratt	G	Sr	6'5"	3-3	33.0	17.0	1.7	3.3	2.0	51.2%	27.3%	3.7	90.9%	31.1%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Butler2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
11	Finley Bizjack	G	Jr	6'4"	31-31	34.0	17.1	2.2	2.5	1.7	51.4%	34.9%	6.3	85.0%	27.9%
7	Jamie Kaiser Jr.	G	So	6'6"	30-29	29.0	9.5	4.3	1.0	0.7	52.4%	34.5%	3.9	75.8%	18.3%
21	Yohan Traore	F	Sr	6'11"	32-0	19.6	8.3	3.0	0.8	0.6	55.5%	20.0%	0.5	70.9%	21.8%
13	Drayton Jones	C	Jr	6'11"	32-32	19.5	6.3	4.6	1.4	0.7	58.6%	0.0%	0.0	72.0%	16.9%
1	Evan Haywood	G	So	6'4"	29-3	19.4	7.2	1.9	1.2	0.4	49.7%	35.9%	5.3	75.0%	22.1%
8	Yame Butler	G	Sr	6'5"	31-2	13.6	4.2	1.2	1.4	0.7	50.5%	28.9%	1.2	74.3%	18.9%
4	Efeosa Oliogu-Elabor	F	Fr	6'6"	25-10	16.4	5.0	2.2	2.0	1.4	41.9%	10.5%	0.8	62.1%	24.0%
23	Azavier Robinson	G	Fr	6'2"	22-15	18.3	6.1	1.9	2.5	1.9	53.5%	43.3%	1.4	71.1%	22.6%
0	Jackson Keith	F	Fr	6'5"	26-0	8.6	2.0	1.7	0.2	0.2	50.0%	29.4%	0.7	57.1%	13.6%
2	Jalen Jackson	G	Sr	6'2"	6-6	22.5	9.5	3.5	3.8	3.0	53.5%	40.0%	0.8	57.9%	27.6%
6	Jack McCaffery	F	Fr	6'9"	9-0	9.6	2.8	1.6	0.4	0.4	47.5%	21.4%	1.6	75.0%	17.3%
3	Ethan McComb	G	Jr	6'1"	6-0	1.2	0.3	0.0	0.3	0.0	100.0%	—	0.0	—	7.7%
35	Bryson Cardinal	F	Fr	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
39	Kevin Ndzie	C	Jr	7'1"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Northeastern2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
4	Mike Loughnane	G	Jr	6'4"	31-23	30.9	10.2	2.9	3.8	1.6	52.7%	35.1%	3.6	78.8%	20.0%
8	William Kermoury	G	Jr	6'5"	27-24	26.9	13.1	3.2	2.3	1.4	57.9%	40.2%	6.8	71.7%	26.7%
7	Youri Fritz	F	Sr	6'9"	25-23	25.9	9.8	5.4	1.5	1.6	59.8%	33.3%	0.1	52.1%	22.1%
1	Xavier Abreu	G	Fr	6'3"	29-9	21.0	12.6	2.7	1.0	1.1	50.3%	28.3%	3.2	75.6%	34.8%
13	Luca Soroa Schaller	G	So	6'7"	29-12	20.7	5.6	3.4	2.2	1.9	40.0%	22.6%	1.8	73.7%	22.0%
2	Ryan Williams	G	So	6'4"	28-10	14.7	7.4	1.1	1.6	0.6	62.3%	42.5%	2.6	90.9%	24.2%
21	Petar Pinter	C	Fr	6'11"	26-14	14.3	3.3	2.1	0.4	0.7	55.1%	—	0.0	55.0%	14.7%
9	Ty Francis	F	Fr	6'7"	24-5	15.0	4.5	2.6	0.4	0.6	52.9%	21.1%	0.8	57.6%	18.5%
0	Xander Alarie	F	Fr	6'8"	11-11	27.7	10.3	7.4	1.5	2.2	45.3%	26.3%	1.7	85.7%	24.1%
12	Liam Koelsch	C	Fr	6'9"	26-1	8.6	1.8	2.3	0.2	0.1	65.7%	—	0.0	8.7%	12.4%
10	Miles Newton	G	Fr	6'3"	9-7	16.8	5.4	2.0	0.9	0.8	58.3%	35.3%	1.9	70.0%	18.0%
22	Haris Elezovic	F	Sr	6'8"	17-0	8.1	2.2	1.5	0.5	0.4	45.7%	25.0%	0.5	85.7%	18.0%
3	LA Pratt	G	Sr	6'5"	3-3	33.0	17.0	1.7	3.3	2.0	51.2%	27.3%	3.7	90.9%	31.1%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Northeastern

Against the spread

Season

11-19-1

Home

2-10

Road

7-8-1

Last 10

2-8

avg cover −4.8

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 1 of 8 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

20-11

Home

9-3

Road

8-8

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total −1.4

Over 3 straightOver in 3 of 8 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 7	DrexelAdjEM #214	N	L 77–84	+5.0	L−2.0	140.5	O161	112.0	122.2	68.8
Mar 6	NC A&TAdjEM #271	N	W 88–72	−2.0	W+14.0	152.5	O160	122.9	100.5	71.6
Mar 3	MonmouthAdjEM #173	H	L 83–89	+4.0	L−2.0	149.5	O172	123.9	132.9	67.0
Feb 28	HamptonAdjEM #268	A	L 65–76	+4.5	L−6.5	146.5	U141	98.6	115.2	65.9
Feb 26	William & MaryAdjEM #127	A	L 77–84	+11.0	W+4.0	164.5	U161	96.4	105.1	79.9
Feb 21	HofstraAdjEM #69	H	L 68–82	+7.5	L−6.5	145.0	O150	106.1	128.0	64.1
Feb 19	DrexelAdjEM #214	H	L 61–70	−1.0	L−10.0	145.0	U131	91.0	104.4	67.0
Feb 12	William & MaryAdjEM #127	H	L 67–94	+5.5	L−21.5	167.5	U161	96.2	135.0	69.7
Feb 7	Stony BrookAdjEM #232	A	L 55–69	+4.0	L−10.0	153.5	U124	82.0	102.9	67.1
Feb 5	HofstraAdjEM #69	A	L 63–80	+9.0	L−8.0	153.5	U143	94.9	120.5	66.4

Butler

Against the spread

Season

16-15-1

Home

8-8-1

Road

6-5

Last 10

5-5

avg cover −2.1

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 8 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

19-12-1

Home

9-7-1

Road

8-3

Last 10

6-4

avg vs total +0.9

Over 2 straightOver in 6 of 8 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 11	ProvidenceAdjEM #81	N	L 81–91	+2.0	L−8.0	162.5	O172	111.6	125.4	72.6
Mar 7	DePaulAdjEM #113	A	W 81–71	+4.0	W+14.0	142.5	O152	110.4	96.8	73.4
Mar 4	CreightonAdjEM #92	H	L 59–76	−2.5	L−19.5	155.5	U135	83.4	107.4	70.8
Feb 25	VillanovaAdjEM #40	A	L 73–82	+10.5	W+1.5	147.0	O155	103.9	116.7	70.2
Feb 21	XavierAdjEM #129	H	W 80–75	−4.5	W+0.5	159.5	U155	117.7	110.4	67.9
Feb 18	GeorgetownAdjEM #95	A	W 93–89	+6.0	W+10.0	147.0	O182	136.4	130.5	68.2
Feb 15	Seton HallAdjEM #56	H	L 56–63	+4.0	L−3.0	138.5	U119	83.6	94.1	67.0
Feb 11	#6UConnAdjEM #10	H	L 70–80	+11.5	W+1.5	143.5	O150	115.8	132.4	60.4
Feb 7	MarquetteAdjEM #100	A	L 55–70	+3.5	L−11.5	155.5	U125	82.2	104.6	66.9
Feb 4	ProvidenceAdjEM #81	A	L 87–97 2OT	+3.0	L−7.0	168.5	O184	110.4	123.0	78.8

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

NortheasternButler

Efficiency

107.7

112.2

113.7

107.4

69.8

69.3

—

Shooting

52.4%

50.9%

53.6%

51.9%

33.7%

32.7%

69.0%

71.9%

29.4%

42.1%

Ball control & glass

16.4%

15.9%

16.8%

15.1%

27.3%

34.6%

30.2%

30.0%

9.3%

9.5%

11.9%

Style

37.8%

34.9%

47.0%

46.6%

15.3%

15.0%

55.7%

57.2%

33.4%

32.1%

Roster

2.26

2.54

6'6.1"

90.0%

83.4%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Northeastern

Returning minutes: 90.0%Returning production: 93.2%

Lost

JB Frankel 20.0 mpg, 5.7 ppg · transferred to Boston College

Added

Nobody of note.

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 90% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Butler

Returning minutes: 83.4%Returning production: 78.3%

Lost

Michael Ajayi 33.6 mpg, 16.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Bryson Cardinal no D1 minutes last season
Kevin Ndzie no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 83% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.