CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneSteps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 141.4 against a projected 141.5. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help New Mexico St.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesProjected possessions: 66.4, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, New Mexico St is the faster team (67.3, #233 of 365) and UTEP the slower (66.0, #296). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetShot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 61.3%#85 | 58.8%#180 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 36.4%#259 | 37.1%#113 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 31.7%#342 | 27.5%#2 | 38.0% |
| Three | 33.9%#178 | 32.4%#83 | 33.7% |
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 56.0%#272 | 58.8%#178 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 40.5%#165 | 40.7%#204 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 39.6%#127 | 42.0%#302 | 38.0% |
| Three | 32.4%#257 | 34.0%#182 | 33.7% |
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersNew Mexico St has more extra scoring chances per game: −1.7 (#262 of 365) to UTEP’s −3.8 (#325).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Kaseem Watson | F | Jr | 6'9" | 31-28 | 31.4 | 12.5 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 47.7% | 38.2% | 4.9 | 81.7% | 26.3% | |
| 15 | Jamal West Jr. | F | Sr | 6'6" | 31-31 | 31.1 | 14.5 | 6.6 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 56.4% | 29.6% | 0.9 | 66.3% | 27.1% | |
| 1 | KJ Thomas | G | So | 6'1" | 31-24 | 28.5 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 44.9% | 25.4% | 2.0 | 73.1% | 15.7% | |
| 33 | Elijah Jones | F | Jr | 6'8" | 31-31 | 28.1 | 13.1 | 5.4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 55.4% | 38.6% | 4.1 | 69.2% | 26.9% | |
| 4 | Caleb Blackwell | G | Jr | 6'1" | 28-27 | 30.4 | 10.6 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 50.0% | 36.4% | 4.7 | 69.6% | 23.3% | |
| 23 | Cassius Brooks | G | Sr | 6'0" | 30-4 | 13.8 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 43.7% | 31.6% | 0.6 | 80.8% | 14.8% | |
| 11 | Trey Horton III | G | Jr | 6'5" | 25-4 | 15.2 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 39.8% | 27.4% | 2.9 | 61.5% | 18.0% | |
| 7 | LA Hayes | G | Jr | 6'5" | 27-1 | 11.2 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 42.7% | 26.3% | 1.4 | 73.9% | 25.6% | |
| 25 | Mouhamed Mbaye | C | Jr | 6'10" | 24-0 | 7.0 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 40.0% | — | 0.0 | 47.1% | 9.5% | |
| 5 | Tyreese Watson | G | Sr | 6'4" | 7-5 | 23.9 | 8.0 | 1.9 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 38.7% | 29.4% | 2.4 | 60.0% | 29.7% | |
| 0 | David Tubek | F | Jr | 6'7" | 12-0 | 8.8 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 43.8% | 33.3% | 1.3 | 62.5% | 27.4% | |
| 3 | Bobby Montgomery Jr. | G | Fr | 6'5" | 16-0 | 5.1 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 42.9% | 0.0% | 0.2 | 14.3% | 15.6% | |
| 6 | C.J. Smith | F | So | 6'7" | 11-0 | 7.4 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 38.2% | 33.3% | 0.8 | 75.0% | 18.2% | |
| 2 | Jordan Hernandez | G | Jr | 5'11" | 7-0 | 4.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0% | — | 0.0 | 100.0% | 8.5% |
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Jemel Jones | G | Sr | 6'4" | 32-30 | 28.4 | 17.8 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 48.4% | 37.2% | 4.3 | 83.5% | 36.9% | |
| 0 | Julius Mims | F | Sr | 6'9" | 31-31 | 27.5 | 10.6 | 8.4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 59.7% | 31.3% | 1.0 | 64.6% | 20.9% | |
| 9 | Anthony Wrzeszcz | G | Sr | 6'4" | 32-26 | 24.6 | 7.4 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 49.5% | 32.9% | 5.2 | 85.0% | 18.6% | |
| 4 | Jae'Coby Osborne | F | So | 6'6" | 32-20 | 23.3 | 6.0 | 4.9 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 55.9% | 15.8% | 0.6 | 59.3% | 15.3% | |
| 1 | Gabe Pickens | G | So | 6'0" | 31-24 | 20.8 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 42.5% | 28.6% | 1.6 | 66.0% | 18.3% | |
| 8 | Jayland Randall | G | Sr | 6'5" | 32-1 | 19.9 | 8.9 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 44.4% | 31.3% | 4.0 | 82.9% | 27.6% | |
| 11 | Elijah Elliott | G | Sr | 6'1" | 31-7 | 18.6 | 8.3 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 41.6% | 31.6% | 3.7 | 77.1% | 31.6% | |
| 5 | Chris Terrell | G | Sr | 6'0" | 31-1 | 12.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 51.4% | 43.2% | 1.4 | 78.3% | 21.4% | |
| 3 | Kyrese Mullen | F | Sr | 6'7" | 26-4 | 14.0 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 38.8% | 26.5% | 1.3 | 58.0% | 22.1% | |
| 24 | Cyr Malonga | C | Jr | 6'11" | 24-16 | 11.6 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 67.3% | — | 0.0 | 47.8% | 17.8% | |
| 44 | Augustine Ekwe | C | Fr | 6'9" | 23-0 | 10.4 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 57.4% | — | 0.0 | 81.8% | 16.3% | |
| 12 | Christian Villegas | G | Sr | 6'2" | 5-0 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 21.4% | 20.0% | 1.0 | 50.0% | 31.6% | |
| 20 | Amarco Doyle | F | So | 6'7" | 3-0 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 50.0% | 33.3% | 3.0 | — | 39.9% | |
| 7 | Teysean Eaglestaff | F | So | 6'7" | 4-0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.5 | — | 21.2% | |
| 2 | Omarr Smith | G | Fr | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Kaseem Watson | F | Jr | 6'9" | 31-28 | 31.4 | 12.5 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 47.7% | 38.2% | 4.9 | 81.7% | 26.3% | |
| 15 | Jamal West Jr. | F | Sr | 6'6" | 31-31 | 31.1 | 14.5 | 6.6 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 56.4% | 29.6% | 0.9 | 66.3% | 27.1% | |
| 1 | KJ Thomas | G | So | 6'1" | 31-24 | 28.5 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 44.9% | 25.4% | 2.0 | 73.1% | 15.7% | |
| 33 | Elijah Jones | F | Jr | 6'8" | 31-31 | 28.1 | 13.1 | 5.4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 55.4% | 38.6% | 4.1 | 69.2% | 26.9% | |
| 4 | Caleb Blackwell | G | Jr | 6'1" | 28-27 | 30.4 | 10.6 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 50.0% | 36.4% | 4.7 | 69.6% | 23.3% | |
| 23 | Cassius Brooks | G | Sr | 6'0" | 30-4 | 13.8 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 43.7% | 31.6% | 0.6 | 80.8% | 14.8% | |
| 11 | Trey Horton III | G | Jr | 6'5" | 25-4 | 15.2 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 39.8% | 27.4% | 2.9 | 61.5% | 18.0% | |
| 7 | LA Hayes | G | Jr | 6'5" | 27-1 | 11.2 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 42.7% | 26.3% | 1.4 | 73.9% | 25.6% | |
| 25 | Mouhamed Mbaye | C | Jr | 6'10" | 24-0 | 7.0 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 40.0% | — | 0.0 | 47.1% | 9.5% | |
| 5 | Tyreese Watson | G | Sr | 6'4" | 7-5 | 23.9 | 8.0 | 1.9 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 38.7% | 29.4% | 2.4 | 60.0% | 29.7% | |
| 0 | David Tubek | F | Jr | 6'7" | 12-0 | 8.8 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 43.8% | 33.3% | 1.3 | 62.5% | 27.4% | |
| 3 | Bobby Montgomery Jr. | G | Fr | 6'5" | 16-0 | 5.1 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 42.9% | 0.0% | 0.2 | 14.3% | 15.6% | |
| 6 | C.J. Smith | F | So | 6'7" | 11-0 | 7.4 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 38.2% | 33.3% | 0.8 | 75.0% | 18.2% | |
| 2 | Jordan Hernandez | G | Jr | 5'11" | 7-0 | 4.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0% | — | 0.0 | 100.0% | 8.5% |
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7 | Jax State | H | L 61–64 | −1.0 | L−4.0 | 139.0 | U125 | 91.1 | 95.6 | 67.0 |
| Mar 5 | Kennesaw St | H | W 78–71 | +3.5 | W+10.5 | 149.0 | P149 | 104.1 | 94.7 | 74.9 |
| Feb 28 | Western KY | A | L 65–97 | +9.0 | L−23.0 | 146.5 | O162 | 90.2 | 134.7 | 72.0 |
| Feb 26 | MTSU | A | L 67–77 | +8.5 | L−1.5 | 139.5 | O144 | 98.2 | 112.8 | 68.3 |
| Feb 21 | New Mexico St | A | L 63–67 | +7.0 | W+3.0 | 143.0 | U130 | 108.2 | 115.0 | 58.3 |
| Feb 14 | Liberty | H | L 64–73 | +6.5 | L−2.5 | 138.5 | U137 | 104.3 | 118.9 | 61.4 |
| Feb 11 | Jax State | A | W 69–64 | +6.5 | W+11.5 | 135.5 | U133 | 115.3 | 107.0 | 59.8 |
| Feb 7 | New Mexico St | H | W 91–88 OT | +1.5 | W+4.5 | 138.0 | O179 | 111.7 | 108.0 | 81.5 |
| Feb 4 | Sam Houston | A | L 66–70 | +10.0 | W+6.0 | 144.5 | U136 | 94.6 | 100.4 | 69.7 |
| Jan 31 | Delaware | H | W 70–55 | −6.0 | W+9.0 | 128.0 | U125 | 112.3 | 88.2 | 62.3 |
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11 | Sam Houston | N | L 61–69 | +4.5 | L−3.5 | 155.0 | U130 | 85.3 | 96.5 | 71.5 |
| Mar 10 | Jax State | N | W 68–63 | −1.5 | W+3.5 | 142.0 | U131 | 105.9 | 98.1 | 64.2 |
| Mar 7 | Kennesaw St | H | W 79–76 | −1.0 | W+2.0 | 157.5 | U155 | 116.9 | 112.5 | 67.6 |
| Mar 5 | Jax State | H | W 77–75 OT | −6.0 | L−4.0 | 145.5 | O152 | 101.5 | 98.8 | 75.9 |
| Feb 28 | MTSU | A | L 85–86 OT | +5.5 | W+4.5 | 148.0 | O171 | 113.0 | 114.3 | 75.2 |
| Feb 26 | Western KY | A | L 70–93 | +5.5 | L−17.5 | 151.5 | O163 | 88.7 | 117.8 | 78.9 |
| Feb 21 | UTEP | H | W 67–63 | −7.0 | L−3.0 | 143.0 | U130 | 115.0 | 108.2 | 58.3 |
| Feb 14 | Jax State | A | W 79–70 | +2.5 | W+11.5 | 140.5 | O149 | 119.9 | 106.3 | 65.9 |
| Feb 11 | Liberty | H | L 75–77 | +3.5 | W+1.5 | 144.0 | O152 | 111.4 | 114.4 | 67.3 |
| Feb 7 | UTEP | A | L 88–91 OT | −1.5 | L−4.5 | 138.0 | O179 | 108.0 | 111.7 | 81.5 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeOffseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputReturns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Head-to-head
this season and last| Date | Season | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Thu, Nov 12 | 2026-27 | New Mexico St 0 – 0 UTEP |
| Sat, Feb 21 | 2025-26 | UTEP 63 – 67 New Mexico St |
| Sat, Feb 7 | 2025-26 | New Mexico St 88 – 91 UTEP |
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.