CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceNeutral siteBaha Mar Convention Center, Nassau, BahamasBaha Mar Championship
NC State
Efficiency #34
2025-26: 20-14 · 11-9 conf
vs
Murray St
Efficiency #108
2025-26: 20-13 · 12-9 conf
Thu, Nov 19 · 6:00 PM ET
86.0
win 70%
Projected
79.8
win 30%
No line posted yet.
Model: NCSU −6.2 · total 165.8 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Murray St 71.2, NC State 69.4 → 72.3 possessions
+8.7
Murray St offense vs NC State defense
+1.3
NC State offense vs Murray St defense
+7.5
Projected total
165.8
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Murray St offense vs NC State defense
+1.3
NC State offense vs Murray St defense
−7.5
NC State by 6.2
6.2
NC State side ◂▸ Murray St side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 165.7 against a projected 165.8. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Murray St.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 72.3, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Murray St is the faster team (72.3, #20 of 365) and NC State the slower (69.5, #112). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
72.3
per team, 40 min
Projected total
165.8
model
Projected team totals
86.0 / 79.8
NC State / Murray St
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
69.4#88
NC State
71.2#12
Murray St
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageNC State
Where NC State scores: shooting
NC State shoots an effective 55.0% (#35); Murray St allows 52.4% (#236). Expect about 54.0%, 2.7 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.9 points per 100 possessions.
Pace
Track meet
Murray St averages 72.3 possessions per 40, NC State 69.5. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 72 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
TurnoversNC State
NC State protects the ball
Projected turnover rate of 14.0% is worth roughly +3.4 points per 100 possessions for NC State's offense.
AdvantageMurray St
Where Murray St scores: shooting
Murray St shoots an effective 53.8% (#70); NC State allows 52.7% (#256). Expect about 53.5%, 2.2 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.2 points per 100 possessions.
ClashMurray St
Style match: 3-point volume
Murray St takes 44.8% of its shots from three; NC State lets opponents take 44.9% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 47.2% — both habits push the same way.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (NC State) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect NC State at about 34.9% of its shots from three, Murray St about 47.2%.
NC State has the ball
OffenseMurray St allowsvs D1 avg
55.0% #35
52.4% #236
+3.9 pt/100
13.1% #8
15.8% #232
+3.4 pt/100
28.2% #258
31.3% #214
-0.7 pt/100
35.1% #175
32.2% #109
-0.2 pt/100
76.8% #36
—
+0.4 pt/100
NC State net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +6.7 pts/100
Murray St has the ball
OffenseNC State allowsvs D1 avg
53.8% #70
52.7% #256
+3.2 pt/100
16.3% #158
18.2% #90
-0.8 pt/100
32.6% #100
30.5% #181
+1.0 pt/100
38.6% #86
36.9% #235
+0.4 pt/100
75.5% #67
—
+0.3 pt/100
Murray St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +4.0 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersNC Stateoffense vsMurray Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
NC State shoots
39.1
5.5
13.0
42.4
Murray St allows
43.9
6.6
21.5
28.0
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 59.4%#148 | 57.1%#117 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 28.4%#354 | 40.2%#195 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 35.6%#273 | 41.2%#281 | 38.0% |
| Three | 38.8%#6 | 36.2%#310 | 33.7% |
Murray Stoffense vsNC Statedefense
Share of shots by zone
Murray St shoots
36.7
5.7
12.4
45.2
NC State allows
38.3
5.2
11.9
44.7
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 61.1%#93 | 58.4%#160 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 42.9%#105 | 37.2%#117 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 40.6%#91 | 37.2%#137 | 38.0% |
| Three | 35.0%#120 | 35.5%#281 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersNC State
+2.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#80 of 365
Off reb %
28.2%
#258
Def reb %
69.5%
#181
Turnover %
13.1%
#8
Forced TO %
18.2%
#90
FT rate
35.1%
#175
FT allowed
36.9%
#235
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.7
Defensive rebounding0.0
Ball security+2.5
Forcing turnovers+1.0
Foul shots drawn0.0
Foul shots allowed−0.4
Murray St
+1.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#103 of 365
Off reb %
32.6%
#100
Def reb %
68.7%
#214
Turnover %
16.3%
#158
Forced TO %
15.8%
#232
FT rate
38.6%
#86
FT allowed
32.2%
#109
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.7
Defensive rebounding−0.2
Ball security+0.3
Forcing turnovers−0.6
Foul shots drawn+0.9
Foul shots allowed+0.8
NC State has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.4 (#80 of 365) to Murray St’s +1.9 (#103).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
NC State2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Darrion Williams | F | Sr | 6'6" | 33-33 | 30.1 | 14.0 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 51.1% | 40.4% | 5.8 | 77.3% | 28.0% | |
| 2 | Paul McNeil Jr. | G | So | 6'5" | 34-32 | 28.7 | 13.8 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 59.7% | 42.7% | 7.2 | 82.4% | 22.7% | |
| 22 | Ven-Allen Lubin | F | Sr | 6'9" | 34-34 | 28.1 | 13.6 | 7.1 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 67.4% | 27.3% | 0.3 | 74.3% | 21.8% | |
| 21 | Terrance Arceneaux | G | Jr | 6'6" | 30-0 | 15.8 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 48.5% | 32.6% | 1.5 | 77.3% | 14.8% | |
| 13 | Musa Sagnia | F | Fr | 6'10" | 34-1 | 12.4 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 60.5% | 25.0% | 0.1 | 45.5% | 11.3% | |
| 7 | Alyn Breed | G | Sr | 6'3" | 21-7 | 14.8 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 47.3% | 34.5% | 1.4 | 89.3% | 17.7% | |
| 15 | Jerry Deng | F | Jr | 6'9" | 8-0 | 12.6 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 46.7% | 32.4% | 4.3 | 85.7% | 28.9% | |
| 12 | Scottie Ebube | C | Sr | 6'10" | 17-1 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 88.9% | — | 0.0 | 23.1% | 17.5% | |
| 0 | Jordan Snell | G | Sr | 6'3" | 8-1 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 37.5% | 28.6% | 0.9 | — | 23.8% | |
| 45 | Colt Langdon | F | Fr | 6'7" | 6-0 | 2.8 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.7 | 100.0% | 25.8% | |
| 10 | Jayme Kontuniemi | G | Fr | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 33 | Zymicah Wilkins | F | Fr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Murray St2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Murray St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Javon Jackson | G | Sr | 6'3" | 33-33 | 25.6 | 16.5 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 49.2% | 36.9% | 4.5 | 85.5% | 37.8% | |
| 77 | Roman Domon | G | Fr | 6'9" | 33-9 | 25.3 | 14.2 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 55.4% | 36.8% | 3.5 | 76.8% | 28.8% | |
| 33 | Fred King | C | Sr | 6'9" | 32-31 | 24.7 | 13.1 | 8.4 | 0.8 | 1.9 | 66.0% | 54.5% | 0.3 | 61.4% | 26.9% | |
| 9 | Layne Taylor | G | So | 5'11" | 31-26 | 24.7 | 8.0 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 52.7% | 34.5% | 4.6 | 78.9% | 18.4% | |
| 13 | Mason Miller | F | Sr | 6'9" | 32-24 | 22.8 | 5.9 | 3.8 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 55.6% | 39.2% | 3.8 | 78.4% | 13.4% | |
| 8 | JJ Traynor | F | Sr | 6'9" | 32-32 | 22.6 | 7.4 | 3.5 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 53.8% | 29.3% | 2.3 | 69.2% | 19.2% | |
| 10 | KJ Tenner | G | So | 6'0" | 33-7 | 16.5 | 6.0 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 52.7% | 42.6% | 1.4 | 74.1% | 20.6% | |
| 2 | Mathis Courbon | G | Fr | 6'6" | 32-0 | 15.8 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 53.9% | 40.8% | 1.5 | 79.2% | 16.6% | |
| 34 | Brayden Shorter | G | Jr | 6'5" | 33-1 | 14.6 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 46.6% | 28.4% | 4.7 | 90.0% | 23.5% | |
| 11 | Dylan Anderson | C | Jr | 7'0" | 31-2 | 6.8 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 42.4% | 20.0% | 0.8 | 60.0% | 17.2% | |
| 6 | Brock Vice | F | So | 6'10" | 29-0 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 66.7% | 36.4% | 0.4 | 68.8% | 18.3% | |
| 7 | Ben Shtolzberg | G | Sr | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 25 | Dillon Butler | G | Fr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 14 | Lachlan Crate | G | Fr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 4 | Tristian Ford | G | Fr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
NC State2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Darrion Williams | F | Sr | 6'6" | 33-33 | 30.1 | 14.0 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 51.1% | 40.4% | 5.8 | 77.3% | 28.0% | |
| 2 | Paul McNeil Jr. | G | So | 6'5" | 34-32 | 28.7 | 13.8 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 59.7% | 42.7% | 7.2 | 82.4% | 22.7% | |
| 22 | Ven-Allen Lubin | F | Sr | 6'9" | 34-34 | 28.1 | 13.6 | 7.1 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 67.4% | 27.3% | 0.3 | 74.3% | 21.8% | |
| 21 | Terrance Arceneaux | G | Jr | 6'6" | 30-0 | 15.8 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 48.5% | 32.6% | 1.5 | 77.3% | 14.8% | |
| 13 | Musa Sagnia | F | Fr | 6'10" | 34-1 | 12.4 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 60.5% | 25.0% | 0.1 | 45.5% | 11.3% | |
| 7 | Alyn Breed | G | Sr | 6'3" | 21-7 | 14.8 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 47.3% | 34.5% | 1.4 | 89.3% | 17.7% | |
| 15 | Jerry Deng | F | Jr | 6'9" | 8-0 | 12.6 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 46.7% | 32.4% | 4.3 | 85.7% | 28.9% | |
| 12 | Scottie Ebube | C | Sr | 6'10" | 17-1 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 88.9% | — | 0.0 | 23.1% | 17.5% | |
| 0 | Jordan Snell | G | Sr | 6'3" | 8-1 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 37.5% | 28.6% | 0.9 | — | 23.8% | |
| 45 | Colt Langdon | F | Fr | 6'7" | 6-0 | 2.8 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.7 | 100.0% | 25.8% | |
| 10 | Jayme Kontuniemi | G | Fr | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 33 | Zymicah Wilkins | F | Fr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26NC State
Against the spread
Season
15-17-2
Home
8-9
Road
4-5-1
Last 10
2-7-1
avg cover −9.2
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 2 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 0 of 4 as an underdog, 1 push
Over / under
Season
21-13
Home
9-8
Road
8-2
Last 10
6-4
avg vs total +8.7
Under in the last gameOver in 3 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 3 of 4 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17 | #11Texas | N | L 66–68 | −1.0 | L−3.0 | 157.5 | U134 | 97.5 | 100.5 | 67.7 |
| Mar 12 | #10Virginia | N | L 74–81 | +7.0 | P0.0 | 152.0 | O155 | 108.0 | 118.2 | 68.5 |
| Mar 11 | Pitt | N | W 98–88 | −9.0 | W+1.0 | 144.5 | O186 | 148.8 | 133.6 | 65.8 |
| Mar 7 | Stanford | H | L 84–85 | −9.0 | L−10.0 | 152.5 | O169 | 122.3 | 123.7 | 68.7 |
| Mar 2 | #1Duke | H | L 64–93 | +9.0 | L−20.0 | 150.5 | O157 | 99.3 | 144.3 | 64.5 |
| Feb 28 | Notre Dame | A | L 90–96 OT | −6.5 | L−12.5 | 155.0 | O186 | 126.1 | 134.5 | 71.4 |
| Feb 24 | #11Virginia | A | L 61–90 | +6.0 | L−23.0 | 152.0 | U151 | 86.7 | 128.0 | 70.3 |
| Feb 17 | #16North Carolina | H | W 82–58 | −7.5 | W+16.5 | 155.5 | U140 | 127.6 | 90.2 | 64.3 |
| Feb 14 | Miami | H | L 76–77 | −5.5 | L−6.5 | 158.0 | U153 | 117.3 | 118.8 | 64.8 |
| Feb 9 | #24Louisville | A | L 77–118 | +7.0 | L−34.0 | 161.5 | O195 | 95.7 | 146.7 | 80.4 |
Murray St
Against the spread
Season
14-19
Home
8-7
Road
3-9
Last 10
2-8
avg cover −7.8
Missed the spread 8 straightCovered 2 of 5 as a favoriteCovered 0 of 5 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
19-14
Home
6-9
Road
8-4
Last 10
6-4
avg vs total +1.1
Over 4 straightOver in 3 of 5 as a favoriteOver in 3 of 5 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18 | Nevada | A | L 75–89 | +9.0 | L−5.0 | 160.0 | O164 | 103.8 | 123.2 | 72.2 |
| Mar 6 | UIC | N | L 79–92 | +1.0 | L−12.0 | 149.5 | O171 | 100.1 | 116.6 | 78.9 |
| Mar 1 | Bradley | A | L 78–87 | +4.0 | L−5.0 | 158.0 | O165 | 116.0 | 129.4 | 67.2 |
| Feb 21 | Evansville | H | W 88–75 | −14.0 | L−1.0 | 153.0 | O163 | 122.1 | 104.0 | 72.1 |
| Feb 18 | Illinois St | A | L 61–78 | +2.5 | L−14.5 | 158.5 | U139 | 93.9 | 120.1 | 64.9 |
| Feb 15 | Belmont | H | L 70–87 | +1.0 | L−16.0 | 166.5 | U157 | 95.6 | 118.8 | 73.2 |
| Feb 12 | Indiana St | A | W 74–72 | −3.5 | L−1.5 | 164.0 | U146 | 114.0 | 110.9 | 64.9 |
| Feb 9 | Northern Iowa | H | L 60–89 | −4.0 | L−33.0 | 145.0 | O149 | 91.8 | 136.2 | 65.3 |
| Feb 6 | S Illinois | A | W 91–81 | −1.0 | W+9.0 | 158.0 | O172 | 124.4 | 110.8 | 73.1 |
| Feb 3 | UIC | H | W 81–74 | −5.5 | W+1.5 | 158.0 | U155 | 107.8 | 98.5 | 75.1 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeNC StateMurray St
Efficiency
117.3
113.2
105.5
110.0
69.4
71.2
—
—
Shooting
55.0%
53.8%
52.6%
55.0%
38.8%
35.0%
76.8%
75.5%
35.1%
38.6%
Ball control & glass
13.1%
16.3%
18.2%
15.8%
28.2%
32.6%
30.5%
31.3%
7.4%
9.5%
9.4%
8.1%
Style
43.4%
44.8%
39.8%
40.4%
12.9%
12.0%
54.6%
49.1%
31.0%
38.1%
Roster
3.11
2.84
6'6.7"
6'5.9"
63.1%
—
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputNC State
Returning minutes: 63.1%Returning production: 61.6%
Lost
- Quadir Copeland 28.9 mpg, 13.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Tre Holloman 24.0 mpg, 8.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Matt Able 21.7 mpg, 8.8 ppg · transferred to North Carolina
Added
- Zymicah Wilkins no D1 minutes last season
- Jayme Kontuniemi no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 63% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5.
Murray St
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Murray St's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.