Tarleton State Texans vs USC Trojans basketball preview & prediction

Thu, Nov 19 · 11:00 PM ET · Galen Center, Los Angeles, CA

Non-conferenceBTNGalen Center, Los Angeles, CA

Tarleton St

1-1 · 0-0 conf

Efficiency #224

21USC

2-0 · 0-0 conf

Efficiency #74

Thu, Nov 19 · 11:00 PM ET

Our projected score shows once the market opens.

No line posted yet.

Our play

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 75.5, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, USC is the faster team (77.4, #35 of 365) and Tarleton St the slower (70.7, #185). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

75.5

per team, 40 min

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

71.5#121

Tarleton St

74.5#21

USC

How this game plays

points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchup

From the four factors

USC has the ball+9.1

Tarleton St has the ball+2.8

USC has the ball

✓Gets to the lineFTR 55.5% #23 · TAR allows 60.0% #340 · FT 81.8% #31+2.9

✓Shoots it welleFG% 56.3% #82 · TAR allows 47.7% #123+2.3

✓Wins second chancesOR% 28.6% #233 · TAR allows 45.0% #342+2.1

✓Takes care of the ballTO% 15.5% #97 · TAR forces 17.6% #192 · ~12 turnovers+1.8

Tarleton St has the ball

✓Shoots it welleFG% 61.5% #26 · USC allows 48.7% #145+6.1

✗Coughs it upTO% 22.6% #306 · USC forces 23.9% #41 · ~18 turnovers−5.7

✓Gets to the lineFTR 75.0% #1 · USC allows 44.0% #259 · FT 66.7% #229+1.9

✓Wins second chancesOR% 33.3% #135 · USC allows 31.2% #177+0.5

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot

Tarleton Stoffense vs#21USCdefense

Share of shots by zone

Tarleton St shoots

44.2

0.0

7.7

48.1

USC allows

33.3

6.1

26.3

34.3

D-I average

37.8

8.0

12.4

41.8

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	69.6%#57	51.5%#94	58.0%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	—	50.0%#243	38.2%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	25.0%#245	30.8%#138	34.7%
Three	40.0%#56	35.7%#248	32.5%

#21USCoffense vsTarleton Stdefense

Share of shots by zone

USC shoots

40.6

6.9

26.7

25.7

Tarleton St allows

46.2

6.2

4.6

43.1

D-I average

37.8

8.0

12.4

41.8

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	70.7%#43	33.3%#3	58.0%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	57.1%#53	75.0%#336	38.2%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	33.3%#174	0.0%#1	34.7%
Three	38.9%#72	42.9%#324	32.5%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line

Tarleton St

−3.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#226 of 365

Off reb %

33.3%

#135

Def reb %

55.0%

#342

Turnover %

22.6%

#306

Forced TO %

17.6%

#192

FT rate

75.0%

FT allowed

60.0%

#340

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.6

Defensive rebounding−4.5

Ball security−3.1

Forcing turnovers−0.3

Foul shots drawn+9.8

Foul shots allowed−5.7

#21USC

+8.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#68 of 365

Off reb %

28.6%

#233

Def reb %

68.8%

#177

Turnover %

15.5%

#97

Forced TO %

23.9%

#41

FT rate

55.5%

#23

FT allowed

44.0%

#259

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.0

Defensive rebounding+0.1

Ball security+1.9

Forcing turnovers+4.2

Foul shots drawn+4.7

Foul shots allowed−1.6

USC has more extra scoring chances per game: +8.4 (#68 of 365) to Tarleton St’s −3.2 (#226).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Who has been playing, and who has not

Tarleton St2026-27 numbers

#	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage	Status
4	G	So	6'2"	2-2	34.5	16.0	8.0	3.5	1.5	57.1%	36.4%	5.5	61.5%	24.2%	Active
3	G	Sr	6'7"	2-2	33.0	16.5	6.5	2.5	2.0	61.1%	0.0%	2.0	55.0%	26.4%	Active
2	G	Sr	6'5"	2-2	30.0	13.0	1.0	5.5	4.0	58.8%	66.7%	3.0	75.0%	26.7%	Active
13	G	Sr	6'0"	2-2	22.5	6.0	2.0	1.5	1.5	75.0%	57.1%	3.5	—	13.5%	Active
11	F	Sr	6'9"	2-2	20.5	11.0	3.5	0.5	2.0	80.0%	50.0%	2.0	100.0%	22.7%	Active
7	G	Sr	6'7"	2-0	18.5	5.5	3.5	0.0	0.0	50.0%	0.0%	1.0	100.0%	15.6%	Active
8	G	So	6'5"	2-0	17.5	8.5	1.5	1.5	1.5	42.5%	14.3%	3.5	—	35.9%	Active
0	G	Jr	6'4"	1-0	32.0	2.0	8.0	5.0	1.0	0.0%	0.0%	1.0	50.0%	12.2%	Active
35	F	So	6'8"	2-0	11.0	7.5	3.0	0.0	0.5	100.0%	—	0.0	83.3%	22.0%	Active
44	F	Sr	6'9"	1-0	9.0	6.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	75.0%	0.0%	1.0	—	31.4%	Active
6	G	Fr	6'5"	1-0	6.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%	Missed last
15	F	Sr	6'10"	1-0	3.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%	Missed last

Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.

Trends

Results against the closing spread and total, last ten games

Tarleton St

Against the spread

Season

1-0

Home

0-0

Road

1-0

Last 10

1-0

avg cover +1.5

Covered the last game

Over / under

Season

1-0

Home

0-0

Road

1-0

Last 10

1-0

avg vs total +38.0

Over in the last game

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Nov 10	UT Dallas Comets	H	W 76–57	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Nov 6	San DiegoAdjEM #245	A	L 90–96 OT	+7.5	W+1.5	148.0	O186	113.2	120.7	79.5
Nov 2	Cameron Aggies	H	W 86–60	—	—	—	—	113.0	78.9	76.1
Mar 11	Abilene ChrstnAdjEM #301	N	L 78–84	+1.0	L−5.0	135.0	O162	102.0	109.8	76.5
Mar 5	UT ArlingtonAdjEM #164	H	L 60–65	−1.0	L−6.0	136.0	U125	99.2	107.4	60.5
Feb 28	CA BaptistAdjEM #239	A	L 67–82	+7.5	L−7.5	139.0	O149	100.2	122.7	66.8
Feb 26	Utah ValleyAdjEM #94	A	L 72–79	+17.0	W+10.0	141.5	O151	103.7	113.8	69.4
Feb 21	Utah TechAdjEM #255	H	L 72–80	−1.5	L−9.5	141.0	O152	111.1	123.4	64.8
Feb 19	Southern UtahAdjEM #278	H	W 78–74	−5.0	L−1.0	145.0	O152	116.5	110.5	67.0
Feb 16	Abilene ChrstnAdjEM #301	H	W 65–62 OT	+1.0	W+4.0	133.5	U127	85.8	81.8	75.8

#21USC

Against the spread

Season

2-0

Home

1-0

Road

0-0

Last 10

2-0

avg cover +3.0

Covered 2 straight

Over / under

Season

1-1

Home

0-1

Road

0-0

Last 10

1-1

avg vs total +10.2

Over in the last game

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Nov 8	Wichita StAdjEM #95	N	W 93–86	−6.5	W+0.5	155.0	O179	116.9	108.1	79.5
Nov 2	MilwaukeeAdjEM #296	H	W 95–63	−26.5	W+5.5	161.5	U158	126.2	83.7	75.3
Mar 11	WashingtonAdjEM #98	N	L 79–83 OT	+3.5	L−0.5	153.0	O162	97.8	102.7	80.8
Mar 7	UCLAAdjEM #25	H	L 68–89	+5.0	L−16.0	151.0	O157	108.7	142.2	62.6
Mar 4	WashingtonAdjEM #98	A	L 72–91	+5.5	L−13.5	151.0	O163	94.7	119.7	76.0
Feb 28	#12NebraskaAdjEM #16	H	L 67–82	+5.0	L−10.0	148.5	O149	97.3	119.1	68.8
Feb 24	UCLAAdjEM #25	A	L 62–81	+7.0	L−12.0	150.5	U143	94.5	123.4	65.6
Feb 21	OregonAdjEM #92	H	L 70–71	−5.0	L−6.0	149.5	U141	99.8	101.3	70.1
Feb 18	#10IllinoisAdjEM #2	H	L 65–101	+9.0	L−27.0	152.5	O166	91.0	141.4	71.4
Feb 11	Ohio StateAdjEM #49	A	L 82–89	+8.0	W+1.0	152.5	O171	111.9	121.5	73.3

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Team comparison

national rank toned left for away, right for home

Tarleton St#21USC

Efficiency

103.8

110.4

107.6

101.8

71.5

74.5

-4.9

-1.1

Shooting

61.5%

56.3%

63.0%

55.4%

40.0%

38.9%

66.7%

81.8%

75.0%

55.5%

Ball control & glass

22.6%

15.5%

17.6%

23.9%

33.3%

28.6%

45.0%

31.2%

7.5%

9.7%

7.4%

3.6%

Style

48.1%

30.3%

35.6%

40.4%

10.0%

16.5%

63.0%

65.0%

33.9%

32.7%

Roster

3.29

2.71

6'5.1"

6'7.3"

16.2%

24.0%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Tarleton St

Returning minutes: 16.4%Returning production: 13.6%

Lost

Jordan Mizell 27.6 mpg, 5.3 ppg · transferred to Texas A&M-CC
Kaia Isaac 25.3 mpg, 5.6 ppg · transferred to Portland
Freddy Hicks 22.0 mpg, 7.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Dior Johnson 16.4 mpg, 15.0 ppg · transferred to UCF
Ocypher Owens 16.1 mpg, 4.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Cam McDowell 15.7 mpg, 9.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Caleb Blackwell from UTEP · 27.5 mpg, 9.5 ppg last season
Isaac Harrell from Elon · 25.8 mpg, 7.4 ppg last season
Franck Emmou from Texas St · 21.8 mpg, 7.0 ppg last season
TJ Cope from LSU N Orleans · 20.7 mpg, 8.0 ppg last season
JaVar Daniel from West Georgia · 18.6 mpg, 7.2 ppg last season
Josh Hayes from Utah · 13.3 mpg, 2.8 ppg last season

Returns 16% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (3 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

#21USC

Returning minutes: 24.0%Returning production: 25.0%

Lost

Ezra Ausar 29.8 mpg, 14.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Chad Baker-Mazara 24.1 mpg, 15.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Kam Woods 19.6 mpg, 5.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Jordan Marsh 16.0 mpg, 6.3 ppg · transferred to Temple
Jerry Easter II 15.7 mpg, 4.0 ppg · transferred to Oregon
Terrance Williams II 12.9 mpg, 2.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Jalen Cox from Colgate · 32.1 mpg, 16.8 ppg last season
Jadis Jones from Lindenwood · 27.9 mpg, 13.0 ppg last season
Joshua Hughes from Evansville · 27.6 mpg, 9.3 ppg last season
KJ Lewis from Georgetown · 24.7 mpg, 12.2 ppg last season
Isaac Bruns from South Dakota · 19.3 mpg, 13.0 ppg last season
Aaron Hunkin-Claytor from Hawai'i · 14.5 mpg, 3.1 ppg last season

Returns 24% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

More games on Thu, Nov 19

NC State vs Murray St · 6:00 PM ET
Northeastern at Butler · 7:00 PM ET
Buffalo at St Bonaventure · 7:00 PM ET
UMBC at Ohio State · 7:00 PM ET
Montana St at High Point · 7:00 PM ET
Little Rock at Jacksonville · 7:00 PM ET
Maine at Quinnipiac · 7:00 PM ET
Southern Miss at Grambling · 7:00 PM ET
Robert Morris at Toledo · 7:00 PM ET
Tulane at Louisiana Tech · 7:30 PM ET
Charleston at Drake · 7:30 PM ET
Southern Utah at Texas · 8:00 PM ET
Stetson at Louisville · 8:00 PM ET
Texas A&M at TCU · 8:00 PM ET
SE Missouri at St Thomas · 8:00 PM ET
GA Southern at Hou Christian · 8:00 PM ET
Seton Hall vs Wisconsin · 8:30 PM ET
UTEP at New Mexico St · 9:00 PM ET
Utah Tech at Washington · 9:00 PM ET
Oregon St vs Oregon · 9:00 PM ET
East Texas A&M at California · 10:00 PM ET
Sacramento St at Stanford · 10:00 PM ET
VCU at Santa Clara · 10:30 PM ET
Santa Barbara at Pepperdine · TBD

← Wed, Nov 18 · Fri, Nov 20 → · Full season schedule

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.