CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceKFC Yum! Center, Louisville, KY

Stetson

Efficiency #322

2025-26: 12-21 · 8-12 conf

Louisville

Efficiency #14

2025-26: 24-11 · 12-8 conf

Thu, Nov 19 · TBD

66.2

win 3%

Projected

88.0

win 97%

No line posted yet.

Model: LOU −21.8 · total 154.1 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Louisville 69.9, Stetson 67.9 → 69.5 possessions

+2.5

Louisville offense vs Stetson defense

+10.6

Stetson offense vs Louisville defense

−7.2

Projected total

154.1

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Louisville offense vs Stetson defense

+10.6

Stetson offense vs Louisville defense

+7.2

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.0

Louisville by 21.8

21.8

Stetson side ◂▸ Louisville side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Louisville.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 69.5, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Louisville is the faster team (71.0, #54 of 365) and Stetson the slower (67.9, #208). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

69.5

per team, 40 min

Projected total

154.1

model

Projected team totals

66.2 / 88.0

Stetson / Louisville

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

67.9#216

Stetson

69.9#60

Louisville

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageLouisville

Where Louisville scores: shooting

Louisville shoots an effective 56.5% (#14); Stetson allows 55.2% (#338). Expect about 56.4%, 5.1 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +7.2 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantageStetson

Where Stetson struggles: the offensive glass

Stetson rebounds 26.6% of its own misses (#308); Louisville lets opponents grab 27.5% of their own misses (#50). Expect about 26.3%, 4.1 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.5 points per 100 possessions.

Stetson has the ball

OffenseLouisville allowsvs D1 avg

53.1% #96

48.7% #54

-0.3 pt/100

18.1% #277

16.7% #172

-0.9 pt/100

26.6% #308

27.5% #50

-2.5 pt/100

32.4% #250

33.0% #130

-0.3 pt/100

69.2% #292

—

-0.3 pt/100

Stetson net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -4.3 pts/100

Louisville has the ball

OffenseStetson allowsvs D1 avg

56.5% #14

55.2% #338

+7.2 pt/100

16.8% #186

15.1% #271

+1.3 pt/100

32.8% #93

31.8% #250

+1.4 pt/100

33.1% #236

30.4% #71

-0.5 pt/100

76.1% #51

—

+0.3 pt/100

Louisville net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +9.8 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Stetsonoffense vsLouisvilledefense

Share of shots by zone

Stetson shoots

35.0

5.5

15.5

44.0

Louisville allows

32.4

9.0

19.1

39.5

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	59.7%#126	58.8%#181	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	40.0%#171	39.2%#162	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	41.4%#74	32.9%#28	38.0%
Three	36.0%#59	32.3%#76	33.7%

Louisvilleoffense vsStetsondefense

Share of shots by zone

Louisville shoots

36.2

5.3

6.1

52.5

Stetson allows

42.3

5.8

11.6

40.3

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	63.8%#41	63.8%#338	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	47.4%#36	35.7%#83	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	35.8%#265	42.3%#312	38.0%
Three	36.0%#58	34.6%#223	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Stetson

−3.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#304 of 365

Off reb %

26.6%

#308

Def reb %

68.2%

#250

Turnover %

18.1%

#277

Forced TO %

15.1%

#271

FT rate

32.4%

#250

FT allowed

30.4%

#71

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.2

Defensive rebounding−0.4

Ball security−0.9

Forcing turnovers−1.1

Foul shots drawn−0.7

Foul shots allowed+1.2

Louisville

+1.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#104 of 365

Off reb %

32.8%

#93

Def reb %

72.5%

#50

Turnover %

16.8%

#186

Forced TO %

16.7%

#172

FT rate

33.1%

#236

FT allowed

33.0%

#130

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.8

Defensive rebounding+1.0

Ball security0.0

Forcing turnovers0.0

Foul shots drawn−0.5

Foul shots allowed+0.6

Louisville has more extra scoring chances per game: +1.9 (#104 of 365) to Stetson’s −3.0 (#304).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Stetson2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Stetson's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	Ethan Copeland	G	Jr	6'2"	33-33	32.1	15.0	3.7	2.1	1.3	58.4%	42.9%	7.7	79.4%	25.2%
32	Jake Johnson	G	Sr	6'5"	32-20	28.4	9.2	3.1	1.4	1.0	50.2%	34.0%	5.0	78.2%	19.7%
3	Calvin Sirmans III	G	Jr	5'8"	32-27	23.5	6.1	1.8	4.6	1.8	41.3%	30.4%	2.2	76.5%	19.8%
9	Collin Kuhl	F	Jr	6'8"	32-29	23.5	13.1	6.3	0.7	1.5	66.2%	37.5%	0.3	61.8%	28.5%
21	Finley Sheridan	F	Jr	6'10"	29-20	21.6	7.0	4.1	1.3	1.5	63.6%	42.4%	2.0	63.0%	19.2%
13	Alex Doyle	F	Jr	6'9"	33-7	16.4	4.9	2.1	0.9	1.0	58.0%	40.2%	3.2	57.1%	18.8%
0	Jamie Phillips Jr.	G	So	6'5"	17-17	30.6	16.0	5.6	2.8	2.0	51.9%	34.7%	4.4	69.0%	30.7%
12	Matar Diop	F	Jr	6'10"	31-9	12.8	2.8	2.8	0.2	0.6	49.3%	20.0%	0.2	42.9%	16.3%
4	Daniel Macgregor	G	So	6'0"	20-3	18.7	4.8	1.9	3.8	2.0	40.9%	33.3%	1.1	82.1%	21.7%
51	Sean Morgan	G	Fr	6'2"	16-0	14.3	3.5	1.3	0.8	0.9	35.2%	18.4%	2.4	61.1%	21.6%
15	J.R. Leonard	G	Fr	6'4"	22-0	10.0	3.7	1.0	0.1	0.2	41.1%	24.3%	1.7	44.4%	26.5%
18	Janusz Ratowski	F	Fr	6'11"	25-0	7.6	2.2	1.7	0.3	0.6	64.5%	33.3%	0.1	63.6%	17.5%
2	Isaac Jones	G	So	6'1"	8-0	2.6	0.5	0.5	0.4	0.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.3	66.7%	25.7%
8	Miller McGowan	G	Fr	6'1"	8-0	2.6	0.5	0.0	0.0	0.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.6	100.0%	26.9%
20	Ben Gladieux	G	Fr	6'7"	6-0	2.3	0.8	0.7	0.0	0.5	50.0%	0.0%	0.2	50.0%	31.5%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Louisville2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
40	Flory Bidungaat Kansas	F	Jr	6'9"	35-34	31.6	13.3	9.0	1.5	1.5	64.0%	0.0%	0.1	65.4%	21.9%
11	De'Shayne Montgomeryat Dayton	G	Sr	6'4"	36-36	30.6	13.4	4.0	2.1	1.9	56.2%	33.5%	4.3	78.9%	25.7%
53	LJ Wellsat N Kentucky	F	Sr	6'8"	33-33	30.3	15.0	7.3	2.1	1.9	57.9%	28.3%	1.6	67.5%	26.1%
5	Seth Trimbleat North Carolina	G	Sr	6'3"	24-24	32.5	14.0	3.8	3.0	1.4	50.8%	28.6%	2.6	66.7%	25.4%
14	Adrian Wooley	G	Jr	6'4"	35-16	22.5	8.7	3.9	1.8	1.1	53.9%	35.0%	3.3	77.8%	21.8%
7	Alvaro Folgueirasat Iowa	F	Sr	6'10"	37-1	20.6	8.4	3.6	2.2	1.2	58.6%	33.3%	2.9	76.7%	24.8%
3	Jackson Shelstadat Oregon	G	Sr	6'1"	12-12	34.9	15.6	2.9	4.9	1.8	48.8%	31.4%	8.8	84.6%	28.0%
1	Karter Knoxat Arkansas	G	Jr	6'6"	22-18	22.2	8.1	4.5	1.2	1.0	55.4%	37.7%	3.1	72.7%	20.1%
45	Gabe Dynesat USC	C	Sr	7'5"	30-6	11.9	2.9	2.3	0.4	0.7	78.8%	—	0.0	35.3%	12.8%
33	Will Hanke	G	So	6'4"	9-0	1.1	0.2	0.4	0.0	0.0	33.3%	—	0.0	—	16.1%
6	Boyuan Zhang	F	Fr	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
22	Isaac Ellis	G	Fr	6'1"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
15	Obinna Ekezie Jr.	C	Fr	7'2"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Transfers in: Flory Bidunga (from Kansas), Gabe Dynes (from USC), Alvaro Folgueiras (from Iowa), De'Shayne Montgomery (from Dayton), Jackson Shelstad (from Oregon), Seth Trimble (from North Carolina), LJ Wells (from N Kentucky), Karter Knox (from Arkansas)

Stetson2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Stetson's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	Ethan Copeland	G	Jr	6'2"	33-33	32.1	15.0	3.7	2.1	1.3	58.4%	42.9%	7.7	79.4%	25.2%
32	Jake Johnson	G	Sr	6'5"	32-20	28.4	9.2	3.1	1.4	1.0	50.2%	34.0%	5.0	78.2%	19.7%
3	Calvin Sirmans III	G	Jr	5'8"	32-27	23.5	6.1	1.8	4.6	1.8	41.3%	30.4%	2.2	76.5%	19.8%
9	Collin Kuhl	F	Jr	6'8"	32-29	23.5	13.1	6.3	0.7	1.5	66.2%	37.5%	0.3	61.8%	28.5%
21	Finley Sheridan	F	Jr	6'10"	29-20	21.6	7.0	4.1	1.3	1.5	63.6%	42.4%	2.0	63.0%	19.2%
13	Alex Doyle	F	Jr	6'9"	33-7	16.4	4.9	2.1	0.9	1.0	58.0%	40.2%	3.2	57.1%	18.8%
0	Jamie Phillips Jr.	G	So	6'5"	17-17	30.6	16.0	5.6	2.8	2.0	51.9%	34.7%	4.4	69.0%	30.7%
12	Matar Diop	F	Jr	6'10"	31-9	12.8	2.8	2.8	0.2	0.6	49.3%	20.0%	0.2	42.9%	16.3%
4	Daniel Macgregor	G	So	6'0"	20-3	18.7	4.8	1.9	3.8	2.0	40.9%	33.3%	1.1	82.1%	21.7%
51	Sean Morgan	G	Fr	6'2"	16-0	14.3	3.5	1.3	0.8	0.9	35.2%	18.4%	2.4	61.1%	21.6%
15	J.R. Leonard	G	Fr	6'4"	22-0	10.0	3.7	1.0	0.1	0.2	41.1%	24.3%	1.7	44.4%	26.5%
18	Janusz Ratowski	F	Fr	6'11"	25-0	7.6	2.2	1.7	0.3	0.6	64.5%	33.3%	0.1	63.6%	17.5%
2	Isaac Jones	G	So	6'1"	8-0	2.6	0.5	0.5	0.4	0.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.3	66.7%	25.7%
8	Miller McGowan	G	Fr	6'1"	8-0	2.6	0.5	0.0	0.0	0.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.6	100.0%	26.9%
20	Ben Gladieux	G	Fr	6'7"	6-0	2.3	0.8	0.7	0.0	0.5	50.0%	0.0%	0.2	50.0%	31.5%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Stetson

Against the spread

Season

18-13

Home

8-4

Road

8-8

Last 10

7-3

avg cover +4.7

Covered 5 straightCovered 6 of 9 as an underdogCovered 2 of 4 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

14-16-1

Home

5-7

Road

8-7-1

Last 10

6-4

avg vs total +6.1

Under in the last gameOver in 6 of 9 as an underdogOver in 3 of 4 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 6	Austin PeayAdjEM #141	N	L 60–69	+12.5	W+3.5	153.0	U129	95.4	109.7	62.9
Mar 4	E KentuckyAdjEM #287	N	W 92–76	+6.0	W+22.0	155.0	O168	140.3	115.9	65.6
Feb 28	FGCUAdjEM #246	H	W 78–63	+5.5	W+20.5	151.5	U141	115.3	93.2	67.6
Feb 26	JacksonvilleAdjEM #294	A	L 85–89	+7.0	W+3.0	140.0	O174	126.3	132.3	67.3
Feb 21	North FloridaAdjEM #338	H	W 76–71	−1.5	W+3.5	160.5	U147	118.9	111.1	63.9
Feb 19	C ArkansasAdjEM #139	H	L 76–88	+10.0	L−2.0	149.0	O164	114.9	133.0	66.2
Feb 14	FGCUAdjEM #246	A	L 76–78	+10.5	W+8.5	148.5	O154	111.8	114.8	68.0
Feb 11	JacksonvilleAdjEM #294	H	W 67–62	+1.5	W+6.5	138.5	U129	107.0	99.0	62.6
Feb 7	E KentuckyAdjEM #287	A	L 88–100	+10.0	L−2.0	151.5	O188	125.0	142.0	70.4
Feb 5	BellarmineAdjEM #281	A	L 71–92	+4.5	L−16.5	148.5	O163	115.5	149.6	61.5

Louisville

Against the spread

Season

15-18-2

Home

9-7-1

Road

3-8

Last 10

1-7-2

avg cover −4.2

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 0 of 8 as a favorite, 2 pushes

Over / under

Season

14-21

Home

6-11

Road

6-5

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total −4.5

Under in the last gameOver in 3 of 8 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 21	#3Michigan StAdjEM #11	N	L 69–77	+5.0	L−3.0	151.0	U146	103.1	115.0	66.9
Mar 19	#11South FloridaAdjEM #36	N	W 83–79	−4.0	P0.0	160.0	O162	110.3	105.0	75.2
Mar 12	MiamiAdjEM #30	N	L 73–78	−1.5	L−6.5	153.5	U151	106.7	114.0	68.4
Mar 11	SMUAdjEM #44	N	W 62–58	−6.5	L−2.5	163.5	U120	100.9	94.4	61.5
Mar 7	#22MiamiAdjEM #30	A	W 92–89	+1.5	W+4.5	155.5	O181	142.7	138.1	64.5
Mar 3	SyracuseAdjEM #85	H	W 77–62	−15.0	P0.0	160.0	U139	113.8	91.6	67.7
Feb 28	ClemsonAdjEM #35	A	L 75–80	−2.0	L−7.0	146.5	O155	107.3	114.4	69.9
Feb 23	#18North CarolinaAdjEM #29	A	L 74–77	−3.5	L−6.5	163.0	U151	111.1	115.6	66.6
Feb 21	Georgia TechAdjEM #201	H	W 87–70	−23.5	L−6.5	166.5	U157	118.2	95.1	73.6
Feb 17	SMUAdjEM #44	A	L 85–95	−4.0	L−14.0	168.0	O180	111.2	124.3	76.4

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

StetsonLouisville

Efficiency

105.1

117.8

114.4

101.5

67.9

69.9

—

Shooting

53.1%

56.5%

52.5%

59.4%

36.0%

69.2%

76.1%

32.4%

33.1%

Ball control & glass

18.1%

16.8%

15.1%

16.7%

26.6%

32.8%

31.8%

27.5%

11.5%

9.5%

7.7%

12.5%

Style

44.7%

52.9%

40.0%

39.1%

12.2%

8.6%

58.5%

59.6%

32.8%

31.7%

Roster

2.80

3.65

6'4.7"

6'6.6"

—

11.4%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Stetson

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Stetson's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Louisville

Returning minutes: 11.4%Returning production: 10.0%

Lost

Ryan Conwell 30.0 mpg, 18.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Isaac McKneely 29.0 mpg, 10.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
J'Vonne Hadley 27.2 mpg, 11.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Sananda Fru 22.0 mpg, 9.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Mikel Brown Jr. 17.5 mpg, 10.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Khani Rooths 14.1 mpg, 4.7 ppg · transferred to Oklahoma

Added

Flory Bidunga from Kansas · 31.6 mpg, 13.3 ppg last season
De'Shayne Montgomery from Dayton · 29.8 mpg, 13.0 ppg last season
LJ Wells from N Kentucky · 29.4 mpg, 14.5 ppg last season
Seth Trimble from North Carolina · 23.6 mpg, 10.2 ppg last season
Alvaro Folgueiras from Iowa · 20.6 mpg, 8.4 ppg last season
Karter Knox from Arkansas · 13.2 mpg, 4.8 ppg last season

Returns 11% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.