Southern Miss Golden Eagles vs Grambling Tigers basketball preview & prediction

Thu, Nov 19 · 7:00 PM ET · Fredrick C. Hobdy Assembly Center, Grambling, LA

Non-conferenceFredrick C. Hobdy Assembly Center, Grambling, LA

Southern Miss

1-1 · 0-0 conf

Efficiency #219

Grambling

1-1 · 0-0 conf

Efficiency #282

Thu, Nov 19 · 7:00 PM ET

Our projected score shows once the market opens.

No line posted yet.

Our play

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 71.9, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, Grambling is the faster team (70.6, #191 of 365) and Southern Miss the slower (70.3, #197). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

71.9

per team, 40 min

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

71.4#126

Southern Miss

71.0#152

Grambling

How this game plays

points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchup

From the four factors

Grambling has the ball+6.7

Southern Miss has the ball−0.1

Grambling has the ball

✓Shoots it welleFG% 53.1% #136 · USM allows 56.9% #295+5.1

✓Gets to the lineFTR 38.6% #154 · USM allows 70.6% #355 · FT 68.2% #212+1.7

✗Coughs it upTO% 15.6% #100 · USM forces 21.3% #78 · ~13 turnovers−0.4

✓Wins second chancesOR% 25.8% #274 · USM allows 41.4% #324+0.3

Southern Miss has the ball

✗Few trips to the lineFTR 42.3% #113 · GRAM allows 53.8% #322 · FT 50.0% #350−0.2

✓Takes care of the ballTO% 25.6% #339 · GRAM forces 11.3% #339 · ~13 turnovers+0.2

✗Few second chancesOR% 29.7% #216 · GRAM allows 33.8% #228−0.1

✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 44.2% #276 · GRAM allows 57.1% #2980.0

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot

Southern Missoffense vsGramblingdefense

Share of shots by zone

Southern Miss shoots

21.6

10.8

45.9

Grambling allows

41.7

4.9

10.7

42.7

D-I average

37.8

8.0

12.4

41.8

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	25.0%#357	60.5%#206	58.0%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	75.0%#17	40.0%#193	38.2%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	0.0%#327	27.3%#106	34.7%
Three	40.0%#56	42.6%#322	32.5%

Gramblingoffense vsSouthern Missdefense

Share of shots by zone

Grambling shoots

34.1

6.6

23.1

36.3

Southern Miss allows

58.8

17.6

5.9

17.6

D-I average

37.8

8.0

12.4

41.8

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	71.0%#40	75.0%#340	58.0%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	50.0%#75	50.0%#243	38.2%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	47.6%#71	50.0%#285	34.7%
Three	28.2%#243	33.3%#185	32.5%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line

Southern Miss

−14.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#337 of 365

Off reb %

29.7%

#216

Def reb %

58.6%

#324

Turnover %

25.6%

#339

Forced TO %

21.3%

#78

FT rate

42.3%

#113

FT allowed

70.6%

#355

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.6

Defensive rebounding−3.3

Ball security−5.2

Forcing turnovers+2.3

Foul shots drawn+1.3

Foul shots allowed−8.5

Grambling

−9.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#306 of 365

Off reb %

25.8%

#274

Def reb %

66.2%

#228

Turnover %

15.6%

#100

Forced TO %

11.3%

#339

FT rate

38.6%

#154

FT allowed

53.8%

#322

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.9

Defensive rebounding−0.7

Ball security+1.9

Forcing turnovers−4.8

Foul shots drawn+0.3

Foul shots allowed−4.1

Grambling has more extra scoring chances per game: −9.4 (#306 of 365) to Southern Miss’s −14.0 (#337).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Who has been playing, and who has not

Southern Miss2026-27 numbers

#	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage	Status
2	G	Sr	6'0"	2-2	24.5	8.0	2.0	3.0	1.5	42.3%	27.3%	5.5	83.3%	21.2%	Active
8	G	Sr	6'5"	2-2	23.5	10.5	3.0	1.0	4.0	55.3%	50.0%	5.0	—	31.6%	Active
10	G	Sr	6'6"	2-2	20.0	8.5	5.0	2.0	3.0	53.6%	33.3%	1.5	50.0%	29.8%	Active
20	G	Sr	6'5"	2-2	19.0	9.0	2.5	1.0	0.0	54.2%	50.0%	3.0	83.3%	21.5%	Active
6	F	Jr	6'8"	2-0	19.0	5.0	4.5	2.0	1.5	29.2%	16.7%	3.0	100.0%	23.9%	Active
49	C	Jr	7'0"	2-2	16.0	2.0	2.5	1.0	0.0	33.3%	—	0.0	50.0%	8.5%	Active
24	F	Sr	6'8"	2-0	15.5	6.5	4.0	1.0	3.5	50.0%	0.0%	1.0	33.3%	35.7%	Active
1	G	Jr	6'4"	2-0	11.5	3.0	2.0	0.0	1.0	62.5%	50.0%	1.0	50.0%	16.5%	Active
0	G	So	6'6"	2-0	11.5	4.0	3.5	0.0	0.0	50.0%	0.0%	0.5	66.7%	16.2%	Active
23	G	Jr	6'5"	2-0	11.0	1.5	4.5	0.0	0.5	50.0%	100.0%	0.5	—	9.8%	Active
4	G	Jr	6'6"	2-0	7.0	3.5	1.0	0.0	0.5	41.7%	25.0%	2.0	66.7%	32.4%	Active
22	F	Sr	6'9"	2-0	6.0	1.0	3.0	0.0	1.0	50.0%	—	0.0	—	17.8%	Active
5	G	Fr	6'4"	2-0	5.5	4.5	0.5	0.0	0.0	64.3%	33.3%	1.5	0.0%	38.9%	Active
13	G	Fr	6'6"	2-0	5.0	1.5	0.5	0.5	0.0	20.0%	—	0.0	50.0%	31.5%	Active
7	C	Sr	6'11"	2-0	3.5	0.0	0.5	0.5	0.0	0.0%	—	0.0	—	7.9%	Active
11	G	So	6'2"	1-0	3.0	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	1.0	100.0%	33.8%	Missed last

Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.

Trends

Results against the closing spread and total, last ten games

Southern Miss

Against the spread

Season

1-0

Home

0-0

Road

1-0

Last 10

1-0

avg cover +6.0

Covered the last game

Over / under

Season

0-1

Home

0-0

Road

0-1

Last 10

0-1

avg vs total −6.0

Under in the last game

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Nov 6	#18Iowa StateAdjEM #21	A	L 57–83	+32.0	W+6.0	146.0	U140	81.1	118.1	70.3
Nov 2	Tougaloo Bulldogs	H	W 82–35	—	—	—	—	106.4	45.4	77.1
Mar 8	TroyAdjEM #210	N	L 70–78	+5.5	L−2.5	143.0	O148	98.2	109.4	71.3
Mar 7	App StateAdjEM #155	N	W 86–73	+5.0	W+18.0	137.5	O159	125.4	106.5	68.6
Mar 6	Texas StAdjEM #190	N	W 81–77	+1.5	W+5.5	140.0	O158	117.3	111.5	69.0
Mar 5	James MadisonAdjEM #187	N	W 86–80	+2.0	W+8.0	143.5	O166	119.4	111.1	72.0
Feb 27	South AlabamaAdjEM #216	A	W 68–55	+4.0	W+17.0	142.0	U123	105.1	85.0	64.7
Feb 24	Arkansas StAdjEM #130	A	L 84–89	+9.0	W+4.0	158.0	O173	106.4	112.8	78.9
Feb 21	Old DominionAdjEM #147	H	W 86–81	−5.0	P0.0	148.0	O167	106.1	100.0	81.0
Feb 14	TroyAdjEM #210	H	W 69–65	+5.0	W+9.0	144.5	U134	104.4	98.3	66.1

Grambling

Against the spread

Season

2-0

Home

0-0

Road

1-0

Last 10

2-0

avg cover +8.5

Covered 2 straight

Over / under

Season

1-1

Home

0-0

Road

0-1

Last 10

1-1

avg vs total +18.0

Under in the last game

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Nov 9	#7TexasAdjEM #12	A	L 62–93	+37.5	W+6.5	155.5	U155	84.9	127.3	73.0
Nov 2	N IllinoisAdjEM #287	N	W 89–87	+8.5	W+10.5	139.5	O176	130.7	127.7	68.1
Mar 10	Jackson StAdjEM #354	N	L 65–68	−7.0	L−10.0	140.5	U133	94.7	99.1	68.6
Mar 9	Miss Valley StAdjEM #363	N	W 77–52	−13.5	W+11.5	137.0	U129	116.2	78.5	66.2
Mar 5	Alabama StAdjEM #305	A	W 65–63	+2.5	W+4.5	145.5	U128	91.9	89.0	70.8
Mar 3	Alabama A&MAdjEM #332	A	L 63–77	+2.0	L−12.0	140.0	P140	98.8	120.8	63.8
Feb 28	Florida A&MAdjEM #344	H	L 59–66	−5.0	L−12.0	141.0	U125	87.5	97.9	67.4
Feb 26	BethuneAdjEM #253	H	L 71–76	−1.0	L−6.0	144.0	O147	93.3	99.8	76.1
Feb 23	Miss Valley StAdjEM #363	H	W 83–62	−16.0	W+5.0	137.0	O145	105.2	78.6	78.9
Feb 21	SouthernAdjEM #307	A	L 73–87	+5.5	L−8.5	143.0	O160	97.8	116.6	74.6

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Team comparison

national rank toned left for away, right for home

Southern MissGrambling

Efficiency

102.2

101.1

105.7

108.8

71.4

71.0

18.9

6.2

Shooting

44.2%

53.1%

34.4%

58.7%

40.0%

28.2%

50.0%

68.2%

42.3%

38.6%

Ball control & glass

25.6%

15.6%

21.3%

11.3%

29.7%

25.8%

41.4%

33.8%

14.2%

12.8%

28.1%

8.0%

Style

38.5%

34.2%

35.1%

43.7%

1.8%

6.6%

68.4%

43.6%

48.5%

44.2%

Roster

3.39

3.22

6'5.8"

6'5.7"

15.1%

5.1%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Southern Miss

Returning minutes: 15.1%Returning production: 15.6%

Lost

Tylik Weeks 32.6 mpg, 19.2 ppg · transferred to Memphis
Dylan Brumfield 31.2 mpg, 8.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Djahi Binet 26.4 mpg, 11.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Curt Lewis 23.2 mpg, 5.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Israel Hart 21.0 mpg, 7.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Chiante' Tramble 12.0 mpg, 3.5 ppg · transferred to N Colorado

Added

Cameron Wallace from Little Rock · 28.6 mpg, 12.7 ppg last season
Jalyke Gaines-Wyatt from Hampton · 23.8 mpg, 10.2 ppg last season
Marcus Overstreet from San José St · 8.2 mpg, 2.2 ppg last season
DeAndre Harvey no D1 minutes last season
Max Blank no D1 minutes last season
Dorion Bowen no D1 minutes last season

Returns 15% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Grambling

Returning minutes: 5.1%Returning production: 4.7%

Lost

Roderick Coffee III 31.5 mpg, 10.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Derrius Ward 29.7 mpg, 10.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Jamil Muttilib 26.9 mpg, 12.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Rickey Ballard 22.3 mpg, 7.1 ppg · transferred to Queens
Antonio Munoz 21.0 mpg, 10.6 ppg · transferred to San Diego
Devyn Franklin 19.2 mpg, 4.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Isaiah Howard new to D1 · 23.0 mpg, 12.0 ppg last season
Dwayne Pierce from NC A&T · 22.4 mpg, 6.8 ppg last season
Brandon Hardy from Southern · 18.4 mpg, 3.7 ppg last season
AJ Barnes from Southern · 18.1 mpg, 6.9 ppg last season
Hassan Washington from N Illinois · 16.0 mpg, 4.5 ppg last season
Isaiah Miranda from Long Island · 3.0 mpg, 1.4 ppg last season

Returns 5% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (2 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Mon, Dec 8	2025-26	Grambling 60 – 68 Southern Miss
Thu, Nov 13	2025-26	Southern Miss 70 – 75 Grambling

More games on Thu, Nov 19

NC State vs Murray St · 6:00 PM ET
Northeastern at Butler · 7:00 PM ET
Buffalo at St Bonaventure · 7:00 PM ET
UMBC at Ohio State · 7:00 PM ET
Montana St at High Point · 7:00 PM ET
Little Rock at Jacksonville · 7:00 PM ET
Maine at Quinnipiac · 7:00 PM ET
Robert Morris at Toledo · 7:00 PM ET
Tulane at Louisiana Tech · 7:30 PM ET
Charleston at Drake · 7:30 PM ET
Southern Utah at Texas · 8:00 PM ET
Stetson at Louisville · 8:00 PM ET
Texas A&M at TCU · 8:00 PM ET
SE Missouri at St Thomas · 8:00 PM ET
GA Southern at Hou Christian · 8:00 PM ET
Seton Hall vs Wisconsin · 8:30 PM ET
UTEP at New Mexico St · 9:00 PM ET
Utah Tech at Washington · 9:00 PM ET
Oregon St vs Oregon · 9:00 PM ET
East Texas A&M at California · 10:00 PM ET
Sacramento St at Stanford · 10:00 PM ET
VCU at Santa Clara · 10:30 PM ET
Tarleton St at USC · 11:00 PM ET
Santa Barbara at Pepperdine · TBD

← Wed, Nov 18 · Fri, Nov 20 → · Full season schedule

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.