CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceSwisher Gymnasium, Jacksonville, FL
Little Rock
Efficiency #300
2025-26: 12-20 · 9-12 conf
@
Jacksonville
Efficiency #294
2025-26: 12-20 · 7-12 conf
Thu, Nov 19 · TBD
68.5
win 37%
Projected
72.5
win 63%
No line posted yet.
Model: JAX −4.0 · total 140.9 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Jacksonville 65.8, Little Rock 67.7 → 65.2 possessions
−6.9
Jacksonville offense vs Little Rock defense
−0.1
Little Rock offense vs Jacksonville defense
−0.3
Projected total
140.9
Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Jacksonville offense vs Little Rock defense
−0.1
Little Rock offense vs Jacksonville defense
+0.3
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.7
Jacksonville by 4.0
4.0
Little Rock side ◂▸ Jacksonville side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +3.9 against +4.0. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Jacksonville.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 65.2, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Little Rock is the faster team (67.6, #217 of 365) and Jacksonville the slower (65.2, #328). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
65.2
per team, 40 min
Projected total
140.9
model
Projected team totals
68.5 / 72.5
Little Rock / Jacksonville
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
67.7#233
Little Rock
65.8#348
Jacksonville

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
Pace
Half-court grind
Jacksonville averages 65.2 possessions per 40, Little Rock 67.6. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 65 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
ClashLittle Rock
Style match: 3-point volume
Little Rock rarely shoots threes (31.0% of its shots); Jacksonville runs teams off the line (35.2% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 29.9% — both habits push the same way.
AdvantageJacksonville
Where Jacksonville scores: the offensive glass
Jacksonville rebounds 31.7% of its own misses (#137); Little Rock lets opponents grab 36.6% of their own misses (#357). Expect about 34.3%, 3.9 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.4 points per 100 possessions.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Jacksonville's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Little Rock at about 29.9% of its shots from three, Jacksonville about 38.4%.
TurnoversJacksonville
Jacksonville turns it over
Projected turnover rate of 18.2% is worth roughly -1.7 points per 100 possessions against Jacksonville's offense.
ClashJacksonville
Strength vs strength: shot-blocking exposure
Jacksonville (#29 in shot-blocking exposure) against Little Rock (#37 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 10.7%. Historically Little Rock's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.41 vs 0.68).
Little Rock has the ball
OffenseJacksonville allowsvs D1 avg
49.4% #273
54.8% #325
+1.0 pt/100
18.4% #293
15.0% #290
+0.2 pt/100
31.5% #143
29.1% #115
+0.1 pt/100
27.7% #345
42.7% #336
+0.1 pt/100
68.0% #327
—
-0.4 pt/100
Little Rock net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.1 pts/100
Jacksonville has the ball
OffenseLittle Rock allowsvs D1 avg
50.0% #232
51.8% #199
-0.7 pt/100
17.2% #223
18.5% #71
-1.7 pt/100
31.7% #137
36.6% #357
+2.4 pt/100
32.8% #242
33.1% #134
-0.3 pt/100
72.3% #198
—
-0.0 pt/100
Jacksonville net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -0.3 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Little Rockoffense vsJacksonvilledefense
Share of shots by zone
Little Rock shoots
Jacksonville allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim62.8%#5762.6%#31258.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)32.4%#32335.6%#7939.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)30.6%#34934.9%#7438.0%
Three35.3%#9636.3%#31833.7%
Jacksonvilleoffense vsLittle Rockdefense
Share of shots by zone
Jacksonville shoots
Little Rock allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim57.1%#23562.6%#31558.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)30.4%#34628.7%#1039.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)40.6%#8929.6%#538.0%
Three31.7%#28934.4%#21133.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Little Rock
−2.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#296 of 365
Off reb %
31.5%
#143
Def reb %
63.4%
#357
Turnover %
18.4%
#293
Forced TO %
18.5%
#71
FT rate
27.7%
#345
FT allowed
33.1%
#134
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.3
Defensive rebounding−1.9
Ball security−1.1
Forcing turnovers+1.3
Foul shots drawn−1.9
Foul shots allowed+0.6
Jacksonville
−3.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#307 of 365
Off reb %
31.7%
#137
Def reb %
70.9%
#115
Turnover %
17.2%
#223
Forced TO %
15.0%
#290
FT rate
32.8%
#242
FT allowed
42.7%
#336
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.4
Defensive rebounding+0.5
Ball security−0.3
Forcing turnovers−1.2
Foul shots drawn−0.6
Foul shots allowed−1.9

Little Rock has more extra scoring chances per game: −2.8 (#296 of 365) to Jacksonville’s −3.1 (#307).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Little Rock2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Little Rock's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
11Johnathan LawsonGSr6'7"31-3136.716.24.14.12.048.7%34.7%7.282.8%27.3%
0Braxton BaylessGSr6'2"32-3233.010.33.93.32.446.5%35.1%3.070.4%22.7%
24Cameron WallaceFJr6'8"32-2228.612.76.91.81.749.0%5.3%0.657.4%29.0%
32Tuongthach GatkekFSr6'9"29-2931.49.45.92.01.859.1%25.0%0.166.2%17.6%
15Kachi NzehFJr6'8"32-3228.411.74.81.31.854.9%41.5%3.769.9%24.9%
22Truman Claytor IVFJr6'6"28-016.26.31.50.71.247.0%34.3%2.472.4%27.5%
10Caleb PennyfeatherFSo6'9"29-411.82.22.30.30.345.5%100.0%0.033.3%14.2%
12Tracy Steele Jr.GSr6'3"24-010.91.71.30.60.843.6%38.1%0.935.3%14.6%
23Terrion BurgessFFr6'9"6-423.57.53.21.21.271.2%42.9%1.266.7%15.9%
1Joseph ThomasGSo6'3"13-110.53.20.80.30.450.0%45.5%1.780.0%19.7%
5Christian HughesGSo6'2"9-515.00.90.90.60.318.4%14.3%0.825.0%9.9%
4Kellen RobinsonGFr6'3"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
3Khasen RobinsonGSo6'1"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
2KK RobinsonGSr6'0"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
8Travonne JacksonGSo6'7"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
Little RockJacksonville
Efficiency
104.6
104.9
111.9
111.9
67.7
65.8
—
—
Shooting
49.4%
50.0%
47.9%
51.5%
35.3%
31.7%
68.0%
72.3%
27.7%
32.8%
Ball control & glass
18.4%
17.2%
18.5%
15.0%
31.5%
31.7%
36.6%
29.1%
10.6%
10.2%
5.6%
7.5%
Style
31.0%
37.4%
47.2%
44.0%
16.2%
11.1%
52.2%
44.7%
20.6%
38.8%
Roster
3.39
2.36
6'6.5"
6'5.2"
—
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Little Rock
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Little Rock's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Jacksonville
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Jacksonville's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.