Robert Morris Colonials vs Toledo Rockets basketball preview & prediction

Thu, Nov 19 · 7:00 PM ET · Savage Arena, Toledo, OH

Non-conferenceESPN+Savage Arena, Toledo, OH

Robert Morris

0-2 · 0-0 conf

Efficiency #256

Toledo

1-2 · 0-0 conf

Efficiency #124

Thu, Nov 19 · 7:00 PM ET

Our projected score shows once the market opens.

No line posted yet.

Our play

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 69.9, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, Toledo is the faster team (75.1, #62 of 365) and Robert Morris the slower (68.5, #251). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

69.9

per team, 40 min

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

68.9#292

Robert Morris

71.6#116

Toledo

How this game plays

points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchup

From the four factors

Toledo has the ball+1.5

Robert Morris has the ball−10.7

Toledo has the ball

✓Takes care of the ballTO% 14.6% #75 · RMU forces 14.6% #284 · ~10 turnovers+3.7

✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 42.9% #292 · RMU allows 54.3% #242−2.2

✗Few trips to the lineFTR 36.7% #178 · RMU allows 34.4% #156 · FT 61.1% #301−0.7

✓Wins second chancesOR% 26.3% #268 · RMU allows 42.3% #328+0.7

Robert Morris has the ball

✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 38.7% #338 · TOL allows 50.0% #163−6.8

✗Coughs it upTO% 28.5% #351 · TOL forces 17.7% #188 · ~17 turnovers−4.8

✓Gets to the lineFTR 37.1% #171 · TOL allows 37.1% #186 · FT 83.3% #21+0.8

✓Wins second chancesOR% 27.3% #257 · TOL allows 38.0% #293+0.1

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot

Robert Morrisoffense vsToledodefense

Share of shots by zone

Robert Morris shoots

32.4

5.9

14.7

47.1

Toledo allows

34.9

5.7

15.4

44.0

D-I average

37.8

8.0

12.4

41.8

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	54.5%#229	57.4%#165	58.0%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	25.0%#250	50.0%#243	38.2%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	20.0%#279	25.9%#101	34.7%
Three	26.2%#278	34.8%#226	32.5%

Toledooffense vsRobert Morrisdefense

Share of shots by zone

Toledo shoots

31.8

14.0

21.2

33.0

Robert Morris allows

51.1

8.9

31.1

D-I average

37.8

8.0

12.4

41.8

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	52.6%#243	63.0%#242	58.0%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	40.0%#153	25.0%#76	38.2%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	39.5%#131	25.0%#85	34.7%
Three	22.2%#333	36.2%#264	32.5%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line

Robert Morris

−13.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#336 of 365

Off reb %

27.3%

#257

Def reb %

57.7%

#328

Turnover %

28.5%

#351

Forced TO %

14.6%

#284

FT rate

37.1%

#171

FT allowed

34.4%

#156

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.4

Defensive rebounding−3.5

Ball security−7.3

Forcing turnovers−2.5

Foul shots drawn−0.1

Foul shots allowed+0.9

Toledo

−1.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#196 of 365

Off reb %

26.3%

#268

Def reb %

62.0%

#293

Turnover %

14.6%

#75

Forced TO %

17.7%

#188

FT rate

36.7%

#178

FT allowed

37.1%

#186

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.7

Defensive rebounding−2.1

Ball security+2.6

Forcing turnovers−0.2

Foul shots drawn−0.2

Foul shots allowed+0.2

Toledo has more extra scoring chances per game: −1.5 (#196 of 365) to Robert Morris’s −13.8 (#336).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Who has been playing, and who has not

Robert Morris2026-27 numbers · last game: UIC, Nov 6

#	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	Min/40, last 8	Last 3 vs before	Status	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	G	Sr	6'3"	2-2	30.5	37	—	Started last	4.5	3.0	3.5	5.5	28.6%	25.0%	4.0	33.3%	25.7%
12	G	So	6'2"	2-1	28.5	29	—	Bench	6.5	0.5	1.0	1.5	33.3%	25.0%	8.0	50.0%	22.8%
22	G	So	6'6"	2-2	27.0	23	—	Started last	13.5	4.0	0.5	1.0	43.8%	33.3%	3.0	100.0%	26.5%
5	G	So	6'6"	2-1	25.0	31	—	Started last	5.5	5.0	1.0	0.5	57.1%	66.7%	1.5	75.0%	11.7%
13	F	So	6'10"	2-0	25.0	24	—	Bench	3.0	4.5	2.5	3.0	40.0%	0.0%	0.5	100.0%	14.2%
3	G	Jr	6'3"	2-1	24.0	28	—	Started last	7.5	1.5	1.0	2.0	30.0%	14.3%	3.5	75.0%	28.1%
23	F	Sr	6'8"	2-2	21.0	25	—	Started last	6.0	3.0	1.5	3.5	55.6%	—	0.0	100.0%	23.9%
11	F	Jr	6'7"	1-1	18.0	0	—	Missed last game	8.0	2.0	0.0	1.0	37.5%	—	0.0	100.0%	32.6%
4	G	Fr	6'3"	2-0	8.0	4	—	Bench	2.0	2.5	0.0	1.0	40.0%	0.0%	0.5	—	25.9%
8	G	Fr	6'4"	1-0	4.0	0	—	Missed last game	0.0	1.0	0.0	2.0	—	—	0.0	—	29.4%

Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.

Trends

Results against the closing spread and total, last ten games

Robert Morris

Against the spread

Season

0-2

Home

0-0

Road

0-2

Last 10

0-2

avg cover −18.2

Missed the spread 2 straight

Over / under

Season

0-2

Home

0-0

Road

0-2

Last 10

0-2

avg vs total −8.2

Under 2 straight

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Nov 6	UICAdjEM #103	A	L 56–79	+10.5	L−12.5	142.0	U135	79.9	112.7	70.1
Nov 2	NevadaAdjEM #44	A	L 49–86	+13.0	L−24.0	144.5	U135	73.2	128.5	66.9
Mar 9	Detroit MercyAdjEM #324	N	L 64–70	−4.0	L−10.0	146.5	U134	101.5	111.1	63.0
Mar 4	Youngstown StAdjEM #167	H	W 68–53	−4.0	W+11.0	143.5	U121	109.0	84.9	62.4
Feb 28	Cleveland StAdjEM #356	H	W 83–64	−12.5	W+6.5	157.5	U147	129.8	100.1	63.9
Feb 25	Detroit MercyAdjEM #324	H	W 73–62	−8.0	W+3.0	150.5	U135	114.8	97.5	63.6
Feb 22	Wright StAdjEM #77	A	W 81–68	+4.0	W+17.0	146.5	O149	119.9	100.6	67.6
Feb 15	OaklandAdjEM #267	H	W 93–69	−1.5	W+22.5	156.0	O162	140.7	104.4	66.1
Feb 12	Cleveland StAdjEM #356	A	W 85–68	−4.0	W+13.0	154.0	U153	135.3	108.3	62.8
Feb 7	Youngstown StAdjEM #167	A	W 72–66	+3.5	W+9.5	144.0	U138	111.5	102.2	64.6

Toledo

Against the spread

Season

2-1

Home

0-0

Road

2-1

Last 10

2-1

avg cover +1.8

Covered the last game

Over / under

Season

0-3

Home

0-0

Road

0-3

Last 10

0-3

avg vs total −9.7

Under 3 straight

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Nov 10	Wright StAdjEM #77	H	L 68–76	+1.5	L−6.5	157.5	U144	98.2	109.8	69.2
Nov 7	MarshallAdjEM #132	A	W 81–76	+2.0	W+7.0	158.0	U157	105.7	99.1	76.7
Nov 5	#6Michigan StAdjEM #8	A	L 61–91	+26.0	L−4.0	155.0	U152	83.1	124.0	73.4
Nov 2	Arkansas StAdjEM #130	A	L 70–71	+3.5	W+2.5	166.0	U141	92.9	94.2	75.4
Mar 14	AkronAdjEM #59	N	L 76–79	+8.0	W+5.0	157.5	U155	111.4	115.8	68.2
Mar 13	UMassAdjEM #173	N	W 77–67	−3.0	W+7.0	158.0	U144	109.5	95.3	70.3
Mar 12	Bowling GreenAdjEM #127	N	W 77–76	−1.5	L−0.5	152.0	O153	113.1	111.6	68.1
Mar 6	BuffaloAdjEM #252	H	W 99–78	−5.5	W+15.5	156.5	O177	151.8	119.6	65.2
Mar 3	#19Miami OHAdjEM #88	A	L 72–74	+8.0	W+6.0	162.5	U146	104.7	107.6	68.8
Feb 28	OhioAdjEM #168	A	W 79–67	+2.5	W+14.5	159.0	U146	119.4	101.2	66.2

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Team comparison

national rank toned left for away, right for home

Robert MorrisToledo

Efficiency

101.7

107.3

107.7

104.5

68.9

71.6

9.4

9.3

Shooting

38.7%

42.9%

38.2%

47.4%

26.2%

22.2%

83.3%

61.1%

37.1%

36.7%

Ball control & glass

28.5%

14.6%

17.7%

27.3%

26.3%

42.3%

38.0%

15.3%

10.2%

12.7%

6.8%

Style

43.3%

32.1%

34.3%

44.3%

1.9%

18.4%

68.8%

61.0%

35.3%

32.8%

Roster

2.63

2.98

6'5.2"

6'4.5"

24.1%

36.0%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Robert Morris

Returning minutes: 24.1%Returning production: 18.2%

Lost

Ryan Prather Jr. 34.0 mpg, 15.7 ppg · transferred to Iowa State
DeSean Goode 31.0 mpg, 15.2 ppg · transferred to Miami
Nikos Chitikoudis 25.3 mpg, 11.0 ppg · transferred to Xavier
Albert Vargas 20.5 mpg, 6.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Kaleb Brown 19.1 mpg, 3.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Josh Hill 11.3 mpg, 5.0 ppg · transferred to Oakland

Added

Ace Valentine from UMBC · 31.7 mpg, 11.6 ppg last season
Jalik Dunkley from Nicholls · 25.9 mpg, 11.3 ppg last season
KC Ugwuakazi from Merrimack · 17.8 mpg, 4.9 ppg last season
KJ Garris Jr. from Fullerton · 13.6 mpg, 7.0 ppg last season
Dylan Donovan no D1 minutes last season
Bolaji Oderinlo no D1 minutes last season

Returns 24% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (3 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Toledo

Returning minutes: 36.0%Returning production: 34.0%

Lost

Sonny Wilson 36.2 mpg, 17.0 ppg · transferred to South Florida
Leroy Blyden Jr. 33.4 mpg, 16.4 ppg · transferred to Kansas
Sean Craig 31.6 mpg, 11.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Kyler Vanderjagt 22.1 mpg, 8.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
London Praytor 2.1 mpg, 1.1 ppg · transferred to Montana St
Tyler Ode 1.3 mpg, 0.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Angel Montas Jr. from UMass Lowell · 26.5 mpg, 14.3 ppg last season
Sean Jones from Marquette · 5.3 mpg, 1.6 ppg last season
Rich Barron no D1 minutes last season
Jaylohn Allen no D1 minutes last season
Rashaun Porter no D1 minutes last season
Marco Mattucci no D1 minutes last season

Returns 36% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (2 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Sat, Dec 13	2025-26	Toledo 70 – 75 Robert Morris

More games on Thu, Nov 19

NC State vs Murray St · 6:00 PM ET
Northeastern at Butler · 7:00 PM ET
Buffalo at St Bonaventure · 7:00 PM ET
UMBC at Ohio State · 7:00 PM ET
Montana St at High Point · 7:00 PM ET
Little Rock at Jacksonville · 7:00 PM ET
Maine at Quinnipiac · 7:00 PM ET
Southern Miss at Grambling · 7:00 PM ET
Tulane at Louisiana Tech · 7:30 PM ET
Charleston at Drake · 7:30 PM ET
Southern Utah at Texas · 8:00 PM ET
Stetson at Louisville · 8:00 PM ET
Texas A&M at TCU · 8:00 PM ET
SE Missouri at St Thomas · 8:00 PM ET
GA Southern at Hou Christian · 8:00 PM ET
Seton Hall vs Wisconsin · 8:30 PM ET
UTEP at New Mexico St · 9:00 PM ET
Utah Tech at Washington · 9:00 PM ET
Oregon St vs Oregon · 9:00 PM ET
East Texas A&M at California · 10:00 PM ET
Sacramento St at Stanford · 10:00 PM ET
VCU at Santa Clara · 10:30 PM ET
Tarleton St at USC · 11:00 PM ET
Santa Barbara at Pepperdine · TBD

← Wed, Nov 18 · Fri, Nov 20 → · Full season schedule

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.

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