UC Santa Barbara Gauchos vs Pepperdine Waves basketball preview & prediction

Thu, Nov 19 · Tip time TBD · Firestone Fieldhouse, Malibu, CA

Non-conferenceESPN+Firestone Fieldhouse, Malibu, CA
Santa Barbara
2-0 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #115
@
Pepperdine
2-1 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #270
Thu, Nov 19 · TBD
Our projected score shows once the market opens.
No line posted yet.

Our play

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 68.6, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, Pepperdine is the faster team (75.5, #57 of 365) and Santa Barbara the slower (64.1, #337). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
68.6
per team, 40 min
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
67.4#345
Santa Barbara
71.7#107
Pepperdine

How this game plays

points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchup
From the four factors
Pepperdine has the ball+3.0
Santa Barbara has the ball+16.0
Pepperdine has the ball
✓Shoots it welleFG% 50.0% #176 · UCSB allows 57.1% #298+3.3
✗Few second chancesOR% 42.1% #30 · UCSB allows 10.3% #1−1.2
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 17.2% #155 · UCSB forces 17.2% #206 · ~12 turnovers+1.0
✗Few trips to the lineFTR 42.4% #111 · UCSB allows 32.7% #135 · FT 67.9% #218−0.1
Santa Barbara has the ball
✓Shoots it welleFG% 67.2% #3 · PEPP allows 62.5% #340+15.7
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 9.4% #2 · PEPP forces 21.2% #81 · ~10 turnovers+2.7
✗Few trips to the lineFTR 31.0% #239 · PEPP allows 15.6% #7 · FT 66.7% #229−1.5
✗Few second chancesOR% 29.0% #229 · PEPP allows 31.3% #180−0.8

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot
Santa Barbaraoffense vsPepperdinedefense
Share of shots by zone
Santa Barbara shoots
Pepperdine allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim46.7%#30555.6%#13758.0%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)0.0%#32360.0%#30538.2%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)40.0%#11733.3%#15534.7%
Three62.1%#148.3%#34932.5%
Pepperdineoffense vsSanta Barbaradefense
Share of shots by zone
Pepperdine shoots
Santa Barbara allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim50.0%#26150.0%#7558.0%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)100.0%#10.0%#138.2%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)100.0%#10.0%#134.7%
Three26.7%#26145.5%#34432.5%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line
Santa Barbara
+11.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#37 of 365
Off reb %
29.0%
#229
Def reb %
89.7%
#1
Turnover %
9.4%
#2
Forced TO %
17.2%
#206
FT rate
31.0%
#239
FT allowed
32.7%
#135
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.8
Defensive rebounding+7.1
Ball security+6.3
Forcing turnovers−0.6
Foul shots drawn−1.7
Foul shots allowed+1.4
Pepperdine
+13.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#24 of 365
Off reb %
42.1%
#30
Def reb %
68.8%
#180
Turnover %
17.2%
#155
Forced TO %
21.2%
#81
FT rate
42.4%
#111
FT allowed
15.6%
#7
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+3.5
Defensive rebounding+0.1
Ball security+0.7
Forcing turnovers+2.2
Foul shots drawn+1.3
Foul shots allowed+5.8

Pepperdine has more extra scoring chances per game: +13.7 (#24 of 365) to Santa Barbara’s +11.6 (#37).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Santa Barbara2026-27 numbers
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
20GSr6'3"2-224.011.50.52.00.570.0%71.4%3.5100.0%21.4%Active
3GSo6'5"2-222.58.01.51.00.041.7%40.0%2.5100.0%20.1%Active
1GSr6'4"2-220.57.01.55.02.578.6%75.0%2.042.9%22.8%Active
9CSo6'10"2-218.510.55.00.01.063.6%—0.070.0%29.2%Active
5GSr6'3"2-018.57.02.05.50.570.0%50.0%2.0—17.9%Active
8GSr6'6"2-018.014.03.51.01.065.8%45.5%5.5100.0%37.6%Active
4GSr6'7"2-116.07.04.54.50.581.3%60.0%2.550.0%18.7%Active
12FSr6'9"2-012.510.03.50.00.570.0%57.1%3.566.7%36.0%Active
10FSo6'8"2-011.51.03.51.50.5100.0%—0.00.0%7.6%Active
23FSo6'8"2-110.02.50.50.00.041.7%50.0%1.0—18.3%Active
2GSo6'5"2-08.51.01.00.50.025.0%0.0%1.00.0%17.3%Active
00FSr6'10"2-06.01.01.50.00.550.0%—0.0—15.0%Active
6GFr6'0"2-05.54.51.00.51.550.0%0.0%0.560.0%61.2%Active
7CFr6'11"2-04.01.01.00.00.0100.0%—0.0—7.5%Active
35FSo6'11"2-02.51.52.00.00.00.0%—0.075.0%45.9%Active
21FSo6'5"1-03.00.01.00.00.0——0.0—0.0%Missed last

Team comparison

national rank toned left for away, right for home
Santa BarbaraPepperdine
Efficiency
111.9
102.6
107.1
109.0
67.4
71.7
-6.2
-1.4
Shooting
67.2%
50.0%
41.4%
58.3%
62.1%
26.7%
66.7%
67.9%
31.0%
42.4%
Ball control & glass
9.4%
17.2%
17.2%
21.2%
29.0%
42.1%
10.3%
31.3%
6.2%
10.6%
0.0%
11.1%
Style
50.0%
45.5%
24.4%
42.4%
17.8%
11.8%
83.3%
41.4%
51.5%
47.2%
Roster
3.11
2.86
6'6"
6'5.4"
54.8%
5.1%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Santa Barbara
Returning minutes: 55.3%Returning production: 56.1%
Lost
  • Colin Smith 28.4 mpg, 11.5 ppg · transferred to Northwestern
  • Zion Sensley 25.2 mpg, 10.9 ppg · transferred to LMU
  • Hosana Kitenge 20.8 mpg, 7.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Evans Kipruto 7.9 mpg, 2.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • ZZ Clark 4.4 mpg, 1.5 ppg · transferred to William & Mary
  • Jason Fontenet II 4.2 mpg, 1.0 ppg · transferred to Rhode Island
Added
  • RJ Smith from DePaul · 27.7 mpg, 6.6 ppg last season
  • Eric Dibami from FIU · 27.2 mpg, 8.7 ppg last season
  • Viljami Vartiainen from Weber St · 24.3 mpg, 10.4 ppg last season
  • Antonio Chol from New Mexico · 24.2 mpg, 7.7 ppg last season
  • Declan Duru Jr. from Texas · 2.3 mpg, 0.4 ppg last season
  • Bryce Bedgood no D1 minutes last season

Returns 55% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5 (2 transferred).

Pepperdine
Returning minutes: 5.1%Returning production: 4.3%
Lost
  • Styles Phipps 34.0 mpg, 13.4 ppg · transferred to Nevada
  • Aaron Clark 32.3 mpg, 15.3 ppg · transferred to Little Rock
  • Javon Cooley 30.1 mpg, 11.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Danilo Dozic 26.4 mpg, 9.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Yonatan Levy 20.5 mpg, 5.2 ppg · transferred to Chattanooga
  • Pavle Stosic 15.7 mpg, 3.5 ppg · transferred to FDU
Added
  • Petar Majstorovic from Long Beach St · 31.1 mpg, 14.4 ppg last season
  • Jahari Williamson from Kent State · 25.1 mpg, 10.3 ppg last season
  • Youri Fritz from Northeastern · 20.9 mpg, 7.9 ppg last season
  • Evan Haywood from Butler · 17.6 mpg, 6.5 ppg last season
  • Ethan Meuser from Stonehill · 12.4 mpg, 3.7 ppg last season
  • Anthony Robinson from Xavier · 7.9 mpg, 1.8 ppg last season

Returns 5% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (3 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

More games on Thu, Nov 19

← Wed, Nov 18 · Fri, Nov 20 → · Full season schedule

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.