CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceSharp Gymnasium, Houston, TX
GA Southern
Efficiency #231
2025-26: 21-16 · 13-11 conf
@
Hou Christian
Efficiency #297
2025-26: 12-20 · 8-15 conf
Thu, Nov 19 · TBD
74.7
win 46%
Projected
75.8
win 54%
No line posted yet.
Model: HCU −1.1 · total 150.5 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Hou Christian 66.2, GA Southern 70.1 → 68.0 possessions
−0.7
Hou Christian offense vs GA Southern defense
+0.1
GA Southern offense vs Hou Christian defense
+2.9
Projected total
150.5
Axis starts at 146 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Hou Christian offense vs GA Southern defense
+0.1
GA Southern offense vs Hou Christian defense
−2.9
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.9
Hou Christian by 1.1
1.1
GA Southern side ◂▸ Hou Christian side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Hou Christian.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 68.0, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, GA Southern is the faster team (71.0, #50 of 365) and Hou Christian the slower (64.4, #344). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
68.0
per team, 40 min
Projected total
150.5
model
Projected team totals
74.7 / 75.8
GA Southern / Hou Christian
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
70.1#40
GA Southern
66.2#335
Hou Christian

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
Pace
Tempo tug-of-war
Hou Christian averages 64.4 possessions per 40, GA Southern 71.0. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 67 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
AdvantageHou Christian
Where Hou Christian struggles: ball control
Hou Christian turns it over on 18.9% of possessions (#315); GA Southern forces turnovers on 18.7% of opponent possessions (#61). Expect about 19.2%, 2.4 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.0 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageGA Southern
Where GA Southern scores: shooting
GA Southern shoots an effective 51.4% (#176); Hou Christian allows 54.2% (#304). Expect about 52.9%, 1.6 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.2 points per 100 possessions.
ClashGA Southern
Style clash: paint scoring
GA Southern gets only 38.2% of its points in the paint; Hou Christian gives up 47.2% of opponents' points in the paint (D1 average 42.8%). Expect about 43.2% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.25 vs 0.34).
ClashHou Christian
Style clash: ball movement
Hou Christian assists on 58.7% of its made baskets; GA Southern breaks up passing offenses (assists on 46.4% allowed) (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 52.6% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.65 vs 0.65).
GA Southern has the ball
OffenseHou Christian allowsvs D1 avg
51.4% #176
54.2% #304
+2.2 pt/100
14.6% #48
17.6% #117
+0.9 pt/100
28.8% #238
32.5% #279
-0.1 pt/100
39.6% #62
30.7% #79
-0.0 pt/100
74.3% #111
—
+0.2 pt/100
GA Southern net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +3.2 pts/100
Hou Christian has the ball
OffenseGA Southern allowsvs D1 avg
49.7% #252
52.3% #230
-0.5 pt/100
18.9% #315
18.7% #61
-3.0 pt/100
29.9% #205
35.2% #342
+1.2 pt/100
36.0% #151
41.4% #316
+0.5 pt/100
69.4% #288
—
-0.3 pt/100
Hou Christian net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -2.1 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
GA Southernoffense vsHou Christiandefense
Share of shots by zone
GA Southern shoots
Hou Christian allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim56.2%#26463.2%#33058.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)45.7%#5433.0%#3039.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)40.4%#10039.5%#21938.0%
Three33.4%#20735.0%#24833.7%
Hou Christianoffense vsGA Southerndefense
Share of shots by zone
Hou Christian shoots
GA Southern allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim56.2%#26559.2%#20158.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)38.7%#20239.3%#16739.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)35.2%#28335.9%#10338.0%
Three31.7%#29134.3%#20833.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
GA Southern
+0.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#163 of 365
Off reb %
28.8%
#238
Def reb %
64.8%
#342
Turnover %
14.6%
#48
Forced TO %
18.7%
#61
FT rate
39.6%
#62
FT allowed
41.4%
#316
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.5
Defensive rebounding−1.5
Ball security+1.5
Forcing turnovers+1.4
Foul shots drawn+1.2
Foul shots allowed−1.6
Hou Christian
−0.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#187 of 365
Off reb %
29.9%
#205
Def reb %
67.5%
#279
Turnover %
18.9%
#315
Forced TO %
17.6%
#117
FT rate
36.0%
#151
FT allowed
30.7%
#79
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.2
Defensive rebounding−0.6
Ball security−1.4
Forcing turnovers+0.6
Foul shots drawn+0.2
Foul shots allowed+1.2

GA Southern has more extra scoring chances per game: +0.5 (#163 of 365) to Hou Christian’s −0.2 (#187).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

GA Southern2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted GA Southern's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
21Spudd WebbGSr6'4"37-3732.415.54.62.51.656.6%31.9%3.681.8%24.6%
13Alden ApplewhiteFSr6'7"36-3531.314.15.91.21.256.5%37.4%4.179.3%22.5%
12Tyren MooreGSr5'11"37-3729.416.12.92.61.856.1%38.7%8.483.0%29.6%
5Nakavieon WhiteFSr6'7"37-620.19.73.12.31.644.1%32.5%3.267.1%32.0%
3Khayri DunnGSo6'1"36-017.57.41.70.91.450.2%34.3%3.981.8%27.0%
11Shainen CarterFSr6'9"34-2217.54.03.30.20.953.5%16.7%0.264.3%13.9%
24Andres BurneyFSr6'9"35-1515.74.73.70.30.666.1%—0.054.5%15.4%
9Jefferson KoulibalyGSr6'3"25-1621.14.42.80.70.638.8%24.1%2.257.9%15.3%
1Dwayne Williams JrGFr6'6"34-313.04.51.70.40.346.0%30.2%2.893.8%21.0%
7Tsvet SotirovFSo6'9"35-311.32.71.60.40.343.0%25.3%2.360.0%16.5%
0Jayden WilliamsGFr6'6"17-119.01.21.20.40.126.0%12.5%0.547.1%12.6%
10Sean Van Dorn JrGFr6'6"5-05.03.00.40.20.050.0%40.0%1.075.0%30.1%
4Cade LomasGFr6'3"3-01.70.00.00.00.00.0%0.0%0.7—23.3%
6Amare NealGFr5'9"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
8Cullen SchreinerFFr6'7"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
2Dallas GardnerGJr6'3"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
34Pavle RidesicFFr6'8"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
GA SouthernHou Christian
Efficiency
109.5
104.6
112.5
111.7
70.1
66.2
—
—
Shooting
51.4%
49.7%
52.7%
50.9%
33.4%
31.7%
74.3%
69.4%
39.6%
36.0%
Ball control & glass
14.6%
18.9%
18.7%
17.6%
28.8%
29.9%
35.2%
32.5%
9.0%
10.6%
9.2%
9.9%
Style
48.9%
36.5%
38.2%
46.6%
12.4%
12.1%
41.1%
58.7%
36.5%
27.5%
Roster
3.48
3.66
6'4.9"
6'4.6"
—
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
GA Southern
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted GA Southern's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Hou Christian
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Hou Christian's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
DateSeasonResult
Sat, Nov 292025-26Hou Christian 62 – 80 GA Southern

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.