CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceM&T Bank Arena, Hamden, CT
Maine
Efficiency #335
2025-26: 8-24 · 6-11 conf
@
Quinnipiac
Efficiency #190
2025-26: 19-13 · 12-9 conf
Thu, Nov 19 · 7:00 PM ET
63.8
win 18%
Projected
74.6
win 82%
No line posted yet.
Model: QUIN −10.8 · total 138.4 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Quinnipiac 70.1, Maine 66.6 → 68.3 possessions
0.0
Quinnipiac offense vs Maine defense
−1.5
Maine offense vs Quinnipiac defense
−8.3
Projected total
138.4
Axis starts at 130 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Quinnipiac offense vs Maine defense
−1.5
Maine offense vs Quinnipiac defense
+8.3
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.9
Quinnipiac by 10.8
10.8
Maine side ◂▸ Quinnipiac side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +10.7 against +10.8. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Quinnipiac.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 68.3, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Quinnipiac is the faster team (69.7, #101 of 365) and Maine the slower (64.9, #332). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
68.3
per team, 40 min
Projected total
138.4
model
Projected team totals
63.8 / 74.6
Maine / Quinnipiac
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
66.6#315
Maine
70.1#45
Quinnipiac

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageMaine
Where Maine struggles: the offensive glass
Maine rebounds 19.7% of its own misses (#364); Quinnipiac lets opponents grab 32.0% of their own misses (#253). Expect about 23.7%, 6.7 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -4.1 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageQuinnipiac
Where Quinnipiac struggles: shooting
Quinnipiac shoots an effective 48.2% (#310); Maine allows 50.6% (#136). Expect about 49.1%, 2.1 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.0 points per 100 possessions.
GlassQuinnipiac
Quinnipiac owns the glass
Projected offensive rebound rate of 34.9% is worth roughly +2.7 points per 100 possessions for Quinnipiac's offense.
TurnoversMaine
Maine turns it over
Projected turnover rate of 18.5% is worth roughly -2.1 points per 100 possessions against Maine's offense.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Maine's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Maine at about 34.9% of its shots from three, Quinnipiac about 33.1%.
DefenseMaine
Maine's ball-hawking
Maine ranks #25 nationally in steal rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 11.0% of Quinnipiac's possessions to end in a steal against this defense.
Maine has the ball
OffenseQuinnipiac allowsvs D1 avg
49.6% #263
48.9% #65
-3.1 pt/100
19.1% #325
17.4% #127
-2.1 pt/100
19.7% #364
32.0% #253
-4.1 pt/100
38.4% #93
30.6% #75
-0.1 pt/100
64.3% #363
—
-0.7 pt/100
Maine net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -10.2 pts/100
Quinnipiac has the ball
OffenseMaine allowsvs D1 avg
48.2% #310
50.6% #136
-3.0 pt/100
15.9% #130
19.4% #36
-1.4 pt/100
34.1% #65
34.3% #322
+2.7 pt/100
33.8% #217
33.9% #148
-0.2 pt/100
69.1% #297
—
-0.3 pt/100
Quinnipiac net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -2.2 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Maineoffense vsQuinnipiacdefense
Share of shots by zone
Maine shoots
Quinnipiac allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim56.2%#26352.6%#2058.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)43.1%#10135.1%#6039.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)38.9%#14835.1%#8138.0%
Three31.2%#31434.9%#24233.7%
Quinnipiacoffense vsMainedefense
Share of shots by zone
Quinnipiac shoots
Maine allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim54.9%#30160.5%#25158.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)30.0%#34947.1%#33439.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)31.1%#34642.5%#31838.0%
Three34.0%#17129.3%#433.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Maine
−3.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#309 of 365
Off reb %
19.7%
#364
Def reb %
65.7%
#322
Turnover %
19.1%
#325
Forced TO %
19.4%
#36
FT rate
38.4%
#93
FT allowed
33.9%
#148
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−3.4
Defensive rebounding−1.2
Ball security−1.6
Forcing turnovers+1.8
Foul shots drawn+0.9
Foul shots allowed+0.3
Quinnipiac
+2.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#66 of 365
Off reb %
34.1%
#65
Def reb %
68.0%
#253
Turnover %
15.9%
#130
Forced TO %
17.4%
#127
FT rate
33.8%
#217
FT allowed
30.6%
#75
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.2
Defensive rebounding−0.4
Ball security+0.6
Forcing turnovers+0.5
Foul shots drawn−0.3
Foul shots allowed+1.2

Quinnipiac has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.7 (#66 of 365) to Maine’s −3.2 (#309).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Maine2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Maine's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
1TJ BielFSr6'9"30-3032.511.74.21.31.050.5%33.0%3.668.7%23.1%
3Ryan MabreyGSr6'5"30-2927.97.43.01.51.249.3%34.3%4.766.7%18.9%
0Logan CareyGJr6'3"32-2725.49.72.82.41.854.0%35.6%1.864.8%25.0%
11Ace FlaggFFr6'7"32-1124.26.74.11.51.650.9%35.6%1.869.7%19.6%
24Mekhi GrayGSr6'4"28-2326.59.72.91.91.953.8%30.2%2.369.2%23.8%
4Caleb CrawfordGSo6'0"32-619.94.41.11.81.342.0%26.3%1.865.9%18.6%
25Keelan SteeleFSr6'10"24-2320.68.14.50.92.060.5%0.0%0.156.3%26.0%
14Amare AllenFSo6'7"24-513.83.81.60.30.842.9%28.1%1.355.9%21.9%
6Yanis BambaFJr6'6"25-211.52.91.20.50.439.5%18.8%1.360.0%20.4%
64Bashir N'GalangGFr6'3"21-413.04.01.41.21.344.6%18.2%0.557.9%24.4%
5Isaac BonillaGJr6'1"22-08.82.21.00.30.560.0%40.0%1.60.0%16.1%
12Emmitt BytherFFr6'6"11-03.00.20.50.20.0100.0%—0.0—1.7%
10Killian GribbenFSr6'10"1-03.02.00.00.01.050.0%—0.0—58.1%
8Darius LopesGSo6'4"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
15John SheaFSr6'6"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
21Joshua OjuriFFr6'6"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
MaineQuinnipiac
Efficiency
98.0
106.0
108.8
106.8
66.6
70.1
—
—
Shooting
49.6%
48.2%
51.2%
46.7%
31.2%
34.0%
64.3%
69.1%
38.4%
33.8%
Ball control & glass
19.1%
15.9%
19.4%
17.4%
19.7%
34.1%
34.3%
32.0%
9.5%
9.4%
9.0%
11.2%
Style
37.0%
33.7%
45.1%
43.5%
13.6%
15.7%
54.4%
49.4%
32.9%
29.9%
Roster
2.99
1.99
6'5.3"
6'5.8"
—
25.8%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Maine
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Maine's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Quinnipiac
Returning minutes: 25.8%Returning production: 25.9%
Lost
  • Grant Randall 31.7 mpg, 11.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Amarri Monroe 31.3 mpg, 14.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Asim Jones 28.8 mpg, 12.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Jaden Zimmerman 26.3 mpg, 12.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Spence Wewe 16.5 mpg, 2.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Samson Reilly 7.8 mpg, 3.8 ppg · transferred to Sacred Heart
Added
  • Holden Pierre-Louis from Cleveland St · 14.2 mpg, 3.0 ppg last season
  • Nas Hart from La Salle · 6.6 mpg, 1.4 ppg last season
  • Ali Diouf no D1 minutes last season
  • Jayden Reid no D1 minutes last season
  • Nedas Cholevinskas no D1 minutes last season
  • Mike Parrotta no D1 minutes last season

Returns 26% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last
DateSeasonResult
Sun, Nov 162025-26Quinnipiac 70 – 64 Maine

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.