Yale Bulldogs vs Belmont Bruins basketball preview & prediction

Mon, Nov 23 · 4:00 PM ET · State Farm Field House, Kissimmee, FL (neutral site)

ESPN Events Invitational - Adventure BracketNeutral siteNon-conferenceESPNUState Farm Field House, Kissimmee, FL

Yale

1-1 · 0-0 conf

Efficiency #90

Belmont

2-0 · 0-0 conf

Efficiency #71

Mon, Nov 23 · 4:00 PM ET

Our projected score shows once the market opens.

No line posted yet.

Our play

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 69.5, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, Belmont is the faster team (73.0, #106 of 365) and Yale the slower (67.4, #275). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

69.5

per team, 40 min

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

67.8#333

Yale

72.3#80

Belmont

How this game plays

points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchup

From the four factors

Belmont has the ball0.0

Yale has the ball−9.9

Belmont has the ball

✓Shoots it welleFG% 57.7% #58 · YALE allows 44.9% #77+1.5

✗Few second chancesOR% 21.9% #322 · YALE allows 38.2% #296−1.5

✓Takes care of the ballTO% 26.0% #342 · YALE forces 9.6% #350 · ~12 turnovers+0.9

✗Few trips to the lineFTR 36.5% #181 · YALE allows 29.4% #92 · FT 63.2% #278−0.8

Yale has the ball

✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 47.2% #238 · BEL allows 36.1% #12−9.0

✗Coughs it upTO% 18.5% #201 · BEL forces 26.0% #24 · ~16 turnovers−4.4

✓Wins second chancesOR% 39.5% #52 · BEL allows 35.6% #260+3.2

✓Gets to the lineFTR 28.2% #276 · BEL allows 31.1% #113 · FT 85.7% #11+0.3

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot

Yaleoffense vsBelmontdefense

Share of shots by zone

Yale shoots

38.5

3.4

18.8

39.3

Belmont allows

35.7

5.4

23.2

35.7

D-I average

37.8

8.0

12.4

41.8

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	46.7%#305	50.0%#75	58.0%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	50.0%#75	66.7%#322	38.2%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	40.9%#116	15.4%#44	34.7%
Three	34.7%#134	19.0%#13	32.5%

Belmontoffense vsYaledefense

Share of shots by zone

Belmont shoots

52.2

2.2

6.5

39.1

Yale allows

49.6

4.3

11.1

35.0

D-I average

37.8

8.0

12.4

41.8

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	66.7%#83	48.3%#62	58.0%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	100.0%#1	20.0%#54	38.2%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	33.3%#174	53.8%#313	34.7%
Three	30.0%#221	24.0%#38	32.5%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line

Yale

−5.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#264 of 365

Off reb %

39.5%

#52

Def reb %

61.8%

#296

Turnover %

18.5%

#201

Forced TO %

9.6%

#350

FT rate

28.2%

#276

FT allowed

29.4%

#92

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+2.6

Defensive rebounding−2.2

Ball security−0.2

Forcing turnovers−6.0

Foul shots drawn−2.4

Foul shots allowed+2.2

Belmont

−2.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#221 of 365

Off reb %

21.9%

#322

Def reb %

64.4%

#260

Turnover %

26.0%

#342

Forced TO %

26.0%

#24

FT rate

36.5%

#181

FT allowed

31.1%

#113

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−3.2

Defensive rebounding−1.3

Ball security−5.5

Forcing turnovers+5.7

Foul shots drawn−0.2

Foul shots allowed+1.8

Belmont has more extra scoring chances per game: −2.9 (#221 of 365) to Yale’s −5.9 (#264).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Who has been playing, and who has not

Yale2026-27 numbers · last game: UCF, Nov 6

#	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	Min/40, last 8	Last 3 vs before	Status	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
9	F	Jr	6'6"	2-2	34.5	34	—	Started last	21.5	5.0	0.5	2.5	58.1%	42.9%	7.0	100.0%	33.4%
11	G	Sr	6'1"	2-2	34.5	34	—	Started last	14.5	4.0	3.0	3.0	42.5%	37.5%	4.0	92.3%	27.4%
3	G	Jr	6'4"	2-2	32.0	30	—	Started last	14.0	3.5	2.5	3.0	47.6%	25.0%	4.0	72.7%	29.6%
7	F	So	6'11"	2-2	28.0	31	—	Started last	6.5	8.0	1.0	0.0	72.2%	60.0%	2.5	—	9.4%
12	F	So	6'7"	2-2	27.5	28	—	Started last	7.0	10.0	1.0	1.5	40.0%	—	0.0	100.0%	20.3%
0	G	So	6'2"	2-0	24.5	28	—	Bench	8.0	7.0	3.0	2.0	33.3%	16.7%	6.0	—	33.4%
21	F	Jr	6'6"	2-0	11.0	9	—	Bench	1.5	0.5	0.0	0.5	50.0%	50.0%	1.0	—	10.7%
13	C	Fr	6'10"	2-0	5.0	5	—	Bench	0.0	1.0	0.5	0.0	0.0%	—	0.0	—	5.9%
22	G	Sr	6'4"	1-0	4.0	0	—	Missed last game	1.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	50.0%	14.3%

Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.

Trends

Results against the closing spread and total, last ten games

Yale

Against the spread

Season

1-1

Home

1-0

Road

0-1

Last 10

1-1

avg cover +0.2

Missed the spread in the last game

Over / under

Season

1-1

Home

0-1

Road

1-0

Last 10

1-1

avg vs total −4.8

Over in the last game

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Nov 6	UCFAdjEM #89	A	L 75–87	+9.5	L−2.5	152.5	O162	109.0	126.5	68.8
Nov 2	HowardAdjEM #170	H	W 72–62	−7.0	W+3.0	153.0	U134	109.0	93.9	66.0
Mar 17	UNC WilmingtonAdjEM #114	H	L 67–68	−4.5	L−5.5	148.5	U135	103.0	104.5	65.1
Mar 15	PennAdjEM #159	N	L 84–88 OT	−9.5	L−13.5	144.0	O172	116.1	121.7	72.3
Mar 14	CornellAdjEM #179	N	W 88–76	−3.5	W+8.5	163.5	O164	144.9	125.2	60.7
Mar 7	PrincetonAdjEM #232	H	W 78–53	−14.0	W+11.0	137.0	U131	117.2	79.6	66.6
Feb 28	ColumbiaAdjEM #175	A	W 60–54	−6.5	L−0.5	146.0	U114	98.9	89.0	60.7
Feb 27	CornellAdjEM #179	A	L 69–72	−4.0	L−7.0	164.0	U141	107.4	112.1	64.3
Feb 21	PennAdjEM #159	H	W 74–70	−8.5	L−4.5	149.5	U144	111.1	105.1	66.6
Feb 14	HarvardAdjEM #136	A	W 76–75 OT	−5.5	L−4.5	139.5	O151	115.8	114.2	65.7

Belmont

Against the spread

Season

1-0

Home

1-0

Road

0-0

Last 10

1-0

avg cover +0.5

Covered the last game

Over / under

Season

0-1

Home

0-1

Road

0-0

Last 10

0-1

avg vs total −29.5

Under in the last game

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Nov 10	LipscombAdjEM #200	A	L 75–88	−4.0	L−17.0	158.0	O163	—	—	—
Nov 5	Centre Colonels	H	W 75–45	—	—	—	—	111.3	66.8	67.4
Nov 2	S IndianaAdjEM #304	H	W 72–54	−17.5	W+0.5	155.5	U126	98.6	73.9	73.0
Mar 6	DrakeAdjEM #195	N	L 79–100	−12.5	L−33.5	153.5	O179	109.5	138.6	72.2
Mar 1	Illinois StAdjEM #104	A	L 74–81	−1.0	L−8.0	151.0	O155	119.8	131.1	61.8
Feb 25	EvansvilleAdjEM #306	H	W 98–64	−18.5	W+15.5	152.0	O162	145.2	94.8	67.5
Feb 21	Indiana StAdjEM #213	H	W 87–70	−13.0	W+4.0	156.0	O157	119.2	95.9	73.0
Feb 15	Murray StAdjEM #78	A	W 87–70	−1.0	W+16.0	166.5	U157	118.8	95.6	73.2
Feb 12	Northern IowaAdjEM #113	H	W 91–86	−4.5	W+0.5	140.0	O177	128.2	121.2	71.0
Feb 9	BradleyAdjEM #169	A	L 84–95 OT	−1.0	L−12.0	153.0	O179	108.6	122.8	77.4

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Team comparison

national rank toned left for away, right for home

YaleBelmont

Efficiency

112.8

110.9

106.0

102.0

67.8

72.3

3.2

-10.0

Shooting

47.2%

57.7%

44.0%

65.6%

34.7%

30.0%

85.7%

63.2%

28.2%

36.5%

Ball control & glass

18.5%

26.0%

9.6%

26.0%

39.5%

21.9%

38.2%

35.6%

13.4%

16.4%

14.7%

9.4%

Style

39.5%

38.5%

34.0%

55.6%

15.0%

16.7%

46.0%

40.7%

21.4%

39.3%

Roster

2.73

2.61

6'5.2"

6'5.7"

36.1%

38.3%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Yale

Returning minutes: 36.8%Returning production: 33.4%

Lost

Nick Townsend 32.4 mpg, 15.7 ppg · transferred to Stanford
Isaac Celiscar 31.1 mpg, 13.2 ppg · transferred to Baylor
Casey Simmons 26.6 mpg, 10.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Samson Aletan 24.2 mpg, 7.3 ppg · transferred to Providence
Devon Arlington 13.7 mpg, 2.7 ppg · transferred to Stonehill

Added

Tim Winkler no D1 minutes last season
Chris Bolte no D1 minutes last season
Jack Louridas no D1 minutes last season
Connor May no D1 minutes last season
Jonas Oware no D1 minutes last season
Brady Wooley no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 37% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (3 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Belmont

Returning minutes: 38.3%Returning production: 34.2%

Lost

Tyler Lundblade 34.3 mpg, 15.6 ppg · transferred to Tennessee
Sam Orme 23.2 mpg, 11.5 ppg · transferred to Nebraska
Drew Scharnowski 20.3 mpg, 10.1 ppg · transferred to Duke
Brigham Rogers 18.2 mpg, 7.1 ppg · transferred to Murray St
Nic McClain 11.9 mpg, 4.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Win Miller 7.3 mpg, 2.5 ppg · transferred to Samford

Added

Kayden Fish from Ball State · 13.7 mpg, 5.4 ppg last season
Vincent Neugebauer from FAU · 3.2 mpg, 1.0 ppg last season
Matthew Zobrist from Bradley · 1.9 mpg, 0.6 ppg last season
Aleksa Ristic from Indiana · 1.0 mpg, 0.2 ppg last season
Ethan Sage no D1 minutes last season
Eli Brown no D1 minutes last season

Returns 38% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (4 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

More games on Mon, Nov 23

Northern Iowa vs Davidson · 11:00 AM ET
St Bonaventure vs App State · 11:00 AM ET
Long Beach St at FIU · 1:00 PM ET
Charlotte vs FGCU · 1:30 PM ET
Akron vs Wright St · 1:30 PM ET
Tulsa vs Oregon St · 2:00 PM ET
Ole Miss vs Clemson · 2:30 PM ET
William & Mary vs IU Indy · 3:30 PM ET
Arkansas St vs Southern Utah · 3:30 PM ET
Tulane vs Georgia St · 4:00 PM ET
Nevada vs San Francisco · 4:30 PM ET
Washington vs BYU · 5:00 PM ET
MD Eastern at Youngstown St · 6:30 PM ET
Illinois St vs Santa Clara · 7:00 PM ET
C Arkansas at North Florida · 7:00 PM ET
FDU at Iona · 7:00 PM ET
GA Southern at N Kentucky · 7:00 PM ET
NC A&T at SC State · 7:00 PM ET
Texas A&M-CC at Wichita St · 7:30 PM ET
Denver at Kansas · 8:00 PM ET
Monmouth at North Carolina · 8:00 PM ET
Winthrop at Illinois · 8:00 PM ET
VCU vs Providence · 9:00 PM ET
Alabama St at California · 10:00 PM ET
E Washington at UNLV · 10:00 PM ET
Colorado St vs Arizona · 11:30 PM ET
UNC Greensboro at Pepperdine · TBD

← Sun, Nov 22 · Tue, Nov 24 → · Full season schedule

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.

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